monday update

SHORT TERM: market gaps up to open week, DOW +106

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. European markets opened lower but gained 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was reported higher: +0.2% vs. +1.1%, Personal spending was reported higher: +0.2% vs. +0.7%, and PCE prices were reported flat: 0.0% vs. +0.1%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1587, dipped to 1585, then resumed its rally. The SPX had closed at 1582 on friday. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported higher: +1.5% vs. -0.4%. The rally continued into the afternoon, with only small 2 – 3 point pullbacks along the way. At 2:00 the FED released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20130429a.htm. Then just past 2:00 the SPX retested its bull market high at 1597 and began to pullback. Just before the close the SPX hit 1592, then bounced to close at 1594.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rallied $1.30, Gold rose $14, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9:00, then the Chicago PMI and Consumer confidence around 10:00. Also the FED starts their FOMC meeting.

The market gapped up at the open for the first time since last Tuesday and continued to rally. Around 2:00 the SPX retested the 1597 bull market high, the NDX/NAZ made new bull market highs, but the DOW lagged by about 40 points. Today’s activity suggests the alternate count we posted on the DOW daily chart this weekend: Minute wave v of Minor wave 3 of the uptrend Int. iii. Is now the most probable count. The ongoing SPX count currently looks like the alternate. With the SPX retesting its uptrend high, and short term momentum quite overbought, the market could have a pullback at any time.

Short term support is at the OEW 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1597 and the 1614 pivot. Short term momentum was quite overbought before pulling back some this afternoon. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level at SPX 1578. Best to your trading in this relentless uptrend.

MEDIUM TERM: probabilities suggest the uptrend is extending

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp