SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +21
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: +9.3% vs. +8.1%. The market opened at SPX 1593, one point below yesterday’s close. In the first few minutes it bounced to SPX 1594 and then started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 49.0 vs. 52.4, and at 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 68.1 vs. 59.7. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1587, for a 10 point pullback from yesterday’s high, then began to rally. Around 1:00 the SPX hit 1597, pulled back 3 points, and then closed at a new high 1598.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude dropped $1.45, Gold added $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Tomorrow: ADP at 8:15, ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10:00, then the FOMC statement in the afternoon.
The market opened about flat today, then dipped to 1587 before retesting the SPX 1597 high yet again. This has been a tough uptrend to decipher to say the least. After a closer look at the short term charts, up to and including the daily, we see two possible counts. And the DOW B wave rally does not appear to be one of them. The count posted on the SPX charts displays the uptrend is in Minute v of Minor 3, with Minor waves 4 and 5 to go. The DOW charts now display Minor waves 1 thru 4 completed, and we are now in Minor 5. The OEW 1552 pivot range is the key level to watch going forward. And, the first trading day in May has marked the uptrend high over the past two years. Tomorrow should be interesting.
Short term support is at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Short term momentum bounced between overbought and just below neutral today. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1582. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: Intermediate iii topping or extending
LONG TERM: bull market