tuesday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +21

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: +9.3% vs. +8.1%. The market opened at SPX 1593, one point below yesterday’s close. In the first few minutes it bounced to SPX 1594 and then started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 49.0 vs. 52.4, and at 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 68.1 vs. 59.7. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1587, for a 10 point pullback from yesterday’s high, then began to rally. Around 1:00 the SPX hit 1597, pulled back 3 points, and then closed at a new high 1598.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude dropped $1.45, Gold added $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Tomorrow: ADP at 8:15, ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10:00, then the FOMC statement in the afternoon.

The market opened about flat today, then dipped to 1587 before retesting the SPX 1597 high yet again. This has been a tough uptrend to decipher to say the least. After a closer look at the short term charts, up to and including the daily, we see two possible counts. And the DOW B wave rally does not appear to be one of them. The count posted on the SPX charts displays the uptrend is in Minute v of Minor 3, with Minor waves 4 and 5 to go. The DOW charts now display Minor waves 1 thru 4 completed, and we are now in Minor 5. The OEW 1552 pivot range is the key level to watch going forward. And, the first trading day in May has marked the uptrend high over the past two years. Tomorrow should be interesting.

Short term support is at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Short term momentum bounced between overbought and just below neutral today. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1582. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: Intermediate iii topping or extending

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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139 Responses to tuesday update

  1. pcskier says:

    Hi Tony, I know a while back when the Dow made all time new highs over 2007 you stated something like, the last time the Dow the made new highs back in 2006 it rallied 2400+ points over it’s 2000 high and the duration of the rally was ~2yrs. I wanted to comment that when the $SPX broke out to new highs in 2007 from it’s 2000 highs it rallied ~23 points to the next top in the secular bear market. The $SPX hit a new intraday high today that was ~22 points above it’s previous 2007 high. I’m in the 10% camp, that your original count was and is spot on. I guess we will find out in due time.


  2. H D says:

    http://t.co/xwtCBn88qe So in EDT(from yesterday) we look for complete retrace in 1/2 time confirmation under 1577.56 Good trades all!


  3. gtoptions says:

    Tony you forgot to put the Red line on the neg D, yesterday.
    That’s why everyone is confused today. 😉
    Thanks Tony


  4. Leetired says:



  5. H D says:

    Nice hit! we were do. Great call Tony! R3 15. TY.


  6. budfox9450 says:

    At 3pm EDT – The VAY and SP500 BoYu indicator, had moved to a sell
    signal….Markets, can reverse intraday, so be advised a sell signal, ncan be
    erased by a market advance, prior to the close….


  7. Tony, wouldn’t it be odd if the next correction starts again before 1614 is visited?


  8. lunker1 says:

    maybe a gap up to 1601 in the AM to make one of those megaphone thingamajiggies


  9. manunidhi21 says:

    Hi Tony

    any chance of B ?
    if not what will be the support level for Int Iv. say 1552 ?


  10. Leetired says:

    watch the Bonds also ..IMHO
    The bondsare the red headed step child of blog discussions lately …hmmm 😉


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