SHORT TERM: downtrend confirmed, DOW -238
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP index was reported higher: 213k v 204k. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 1972 close, and continued lower. At 10am Construction spending was reported lower: -0.8% v +1.8%, as was ISM manufacturing: 56.6 v 59.0. Just past 10am the SPX hit 1954 and started to rally. The rally lasted until 11am when the SPX hit 1964, and then the market turned lower again. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 1942, rallied to 1951 just before the close, then ended this down day at 1946.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.60%. Bonds gained 30 ticks, Crude slipped 45 cents, Gold gained $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support now drops to the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: the ECB meets, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then Factory orders at 10am.
The market opened slightly lower today, then dropped quickly to the OEW 1956 pivot. After a rally to SPX 1964 the market then dropped below the 1956 pivot range (1949-1963). When dropping below the 1956 pivot the SPX also broke the rising support trend line since 2012, and most of Primary III. These factors, plus the downtrend confirmation, raises the probabilities of Primary IV to 75%-25%. The final confirmation would be a drop below SPX 1905. With Primary IV probably underway the following three support levels should be kept in mind in the months ahead: 1738, 1627 and 1560, with SPX 1627 the most likely. Yes, it can go that low. Short term support drops to the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold early, then ended quite oversold. Best to your trading !
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
Short SPY at @196.4. Bears need to hold that level around 197 or they are toast. Things seem a bit stretched out here. STop 197.4
http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/
LikeLike
Hey unc,
October 2, 2014 at 9:49 am
Hey unc just purchased last 1/3 avg 107.96…also put on tna at 60.68- for 63.80
bots love trading 88 mil into a valley…good luck
just sold my runners my last 5k sh tna @ 63.58 avg
and last 3k sh iwm 109.52.
I am flat these now. And that’s how i trade- only because you asked.
peace and good luck
LikeLike
I have this a wave 4 low today. Seems no one is any where near the page I am on. Lol. Strong day tomorrow is needed. Good work on the board lately. Cheers.
LikeLike
I dont track SP though, NYA.
LikeLike
Temporary “bounce”. over . We will have HARD DOWN tomorrow and into next week to complete “A “WAVE on Oct. 9th at about 1880. .
LikeLike
rabbit trade- r with that kind of talk you make me wanna stand up and dance!
LikeLike
I think we have a little more to go Rabbit, but I do agree with your call for next week. I suspect we’ll gap down tomorrow and then rally back up into the close to recapture the 1955-1960 SPX level where they can close out the weekly chart right on the rising trendline of support from the 2011 low.
That keeps everyone guessing on what will happen next week. A close below that trendline on a weekly candle has never happened since 2011 and I don’t think we’ll see it this week. Then there’s the past statistics showing that the non-farm payroll report day closes positive something like 16/17 times out of the last 22, so I’m thinking you’re getting a little too excited… remember, the turtle wins the race in the end, not the “fast” rabbit. 🙂
LikeLike