tuesday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW -28

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.7%. US index futures were higher, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: +6.7% v +8.1%. The market opened four points above yesterday’s SPX 1978 close and immediately began too pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 60.5 v 64.3, then at 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 86.0 v 92.4. The pullback ended just past 10am at SPX 1970 and the market started to rally. At 11:30 the SPX hit 1985, then the market started to pullback again. At 12:30 the SPX hit 1973, rallied to 1978 by 1pm, then dropped to 1969 by 1:30. Another rally carried the market to SPX 1978 by 3:30, then a pullback ended the day at 1972.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude dropped $3.15, Gold slipped $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support slips to the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8am; ISM manufacturing, Construction spending and Auto sales at 10am.

The market opened a few points higher today. Dropped to SPX 1970, then rallied to 1985 before heading lower again. After a week of choppy downward activity we have now had two days of sideways choppy activity. We continue to count the downward choppy activity as a 55 point ‘a’ wave: 1979-2000-1966-1986-1964. And now count the choppy sideways activity as a 21 point ‘b’ wave: 1980-1971-1982-1970-1985. A ‘c’ wave should now be underway from today’s SPX 1985 high. We still favor the Primary IV scenario 65%-35%. Short term support is at SPX 1964 and the 1956 pivot, with resistance at the 1973 pivot and SPX 1986. Short term momentum again spent the day vacillating neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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212 Responses to tuesday update

  1. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    sold another 1/3 iwm 109.11
    another 1/3 tna 62.97

    last 1/3 are runners …thats how i trade because i know u were curious

  2. ariez5 says:

    I see no RSI divergence on any time frame in any index to say that a bounce is tradeable.

  3. mjtplayer says:

    1,941 = minute a of minor C? Now bouncing in minute b…

    Int a low to come in on Friday around 1,900 +/-?

    • thecustomer14 says:

      I also see Int a in the 1900 range, but this Friday may be too soon. I’m thinking sometime next week… later in the week more likely.

  4. scorp100 says:

    UVXY such a disappointment with today’s price action.

  5. Walter Crane says:

    Selling TVIX NOW…..

    • thecustomer14 says:

      IMO TVIX will hit $4 before the end of next week, but of course everyone has their own limitations for risk.

  6. John B says:

    BG you on fire man

  7. 7dayyss says:

    Small long on the RUT, 1085 and outside BB bands. Little bounce tomorrow and after that, all bets off. Fourth hit at 1085, could finally give way to the down side.

  8. thecustomer14 says:

    Blue Primary III on the SPX Chart now… that’s all she wrote!

  9. FiveStars says:

    All clear for buy and hold.

  10. rabbittrader1 says:

    My target date for 1935 was monday Sept 29th, But ,we might hit it today. However I am still long 48 SPXU Oct 18 calls at $44 strike . (That is an ultra SHORT call) Also long SPXS ETF’s.

    • reddragonleo says:

      How long do you think the bounce will last and what’s your upside target? if we track the 2011 correction we had a 2 week rally to squeeze out all the bears before the big drop. Not saying it’s going to follow that model but rarely do they start a huge drop with the bears short. They usually trap the bulls long and scare the bears out.

    • drwarmington says:

      Thanks rabbit, appreciate your input and long experience in the markets. All the best.

  11. Kisshu2 says:

    I’m not sure of the wave count on this c down can any one help out?

  12. John B says:

    hit temp support

  13. buddyglove says:

    Just covered my short and reversed….Anyone else getting long here?

  14. sibyn says:

    Short term1936>1925

  15. drwarmington says:

    Rabbitt trader, Is today the 1935 hit? Or has that changed?

  16. kvilia says:

    May I dare to ask you the targets at least for the Intermediate ABC within major A down. Or are you planning to include it in weekend update?
    Thank you.

  17. Gary Lewis says:

    I’m holding tight for a move to the head and shoulders neckline at 1905. Does anyone else see this possibility? Does it compute in OEW? Thanks. Trying to be patient with my positions. I’ve been waiting too long for a drop.

  18. pooch77 says:

    Interesting next 3 bradly turndates,10-9,10-16,11-20

  19. FiveStars says:

    SPX 1940 (+/- 3) is where it will stop.

    • oneandonlyuniverse says:

      u will be right…on support and the world has more protection on since oct 98 and that was the low. melt up

      • uncle10 says:

        hey one, why do think the world has more protection on since 1998? I think I read where you said because someone on the someone’s trading desk said so? is that right? u just taking his word for it?

      • oneandonlyuniverse says:

        because it is a fact..i emailed graph to tony last week( he can forward to u )….

      • uncle10 says:

        yea ive seen that graph. of course there is more protection than ever before. but there is also much more leverage/ long positions that need to be protected. IMO that graph tells you nothing about where we might be headed over the next day or week or month or year.

      • FiveStars says:

        it’s almost there …

    • lunker1 says:

      looks like 60min candle support at the April -> Aug TL support and the 62% and similar to Aug 15. now back to 1956 or 1963?

    • oneandonlyuniverse says:

      put/call highest since late june 2013

  20. lunker1 says:

    on the 60min chart you need to add Chutes & Ladders between 1901 to 1973 pivot. 😉


  21. thecustomer14 says:

    Still on track…

    September 25, 2014 at 2:36 pm
    thecustomer14 says:

    “Since the bull market began back in March 2009, there have been 15 instances where the weekly RSI 5 started above 70 and then fell below 50 before bottoming. This is the 15th such instance. In the 14 prior instances, the minimum % decline was 4.3% and the average decline was 8.1%. A 4.3% decline from SPX 2019 would be SPX 1932 and an 8.1% decline would be SPX 1855.”

  22. Better late than never?

    “I simply gave the flip side of the argument, suggesting 1946 (1946.34 to be precise)”

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