Weekend Report

November 8 2019

The breakout continues as the SPX made another new all time high and weekly closing this high finishing up 26 for the week and closing at 3093.

SPX opened the week with a gap open to 3050 on Monday and closed at 3068 on the day.  Another gap to 3080 occurred on Tuesday and a range from 3068 to 3097 from Tuesday morning to the close on Friday.  The last hour of the week on Friday saw buying from 3082 to the 3093 close.

SPX/DOW moved up 0.85%/1.22% while NDX/NAZ gained 1.16%/1.06%.

On the economic front, PMI was slightly above expectations with a 54.7 reported vs. 53.5 expected.  Unemployment was 211K vs. 215K expected.   Consumer sentiment came in at 95.7 vs. 96 expected.

LONG TERM: Early stages of breakout from consolidation

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred.  We are bullish as long as the 2930 level provides support going forward.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend breakout in progress.

SPX appears broke out of multiple 1,2 formations 3 of 3 of 3 at this time.  Consequently, there are no changes of our current preferred count.  The new all-time highs appear to have confirmed the previous micro 2 low.  This is a good start for an impulsive structure, ideally the previous 1 wave highs would provide support going forward.  A move below 2893 would invalidate the current Micro wave 1 and Micro wave 2 count.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 1.95%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.89%.

The DJ World index gained 0.77%, and the NYSE gained 0.81%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and lost -1.94%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 1.85%

Gold is in an downtrend and lost 3.21%

GBTC is in a downtrend and lost 2.86%.

The USD is in a downtrend but gained 1.2%.

Have a good week!