Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +92

For the first three days of the week the Asian markets have gained 2.9%, and the European markets have gained 1.2%. The SPX started the week at 2532 and hit 2595 today for a 2.5% gain so far this week. When reviewing the charts of the SPX, DOW, NAZ and NDX we do not see them as choppy as we would have expected for a B wave rally. The SPX, DOW, and NDX look like three waves up, and the NAZ is one wave up thus far. Could be corrective, could be impulsive, too early to tell. With that in mind we did a bit of research.

Whenever the Presidents Working Group (PWG) gets involved in the markets through their Primary Dealers. The market generally rallies 10% to 13% before turning over and heading back down again. One time, 1990, it never did fully return to the recent lows. Was that the outlier? Or is that a possibility this time around too? The three levels to watch going forward actually fit with three OEW pivots. These are highlighted in green on the daily chart. SPX 2575, 2632 and 2656. The first is a 10% rally, which has already been achieved. The second a 12% rally, and the third a 13% rally. We would not expect a PWG B wave to exceed that third level. We are also watching market breadth, and have some parameters there too. Interesting juncture.

Short term support is at the 2575 and 2525 pivots, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots. Short term momentum displays a negative divergence at today’s high. Best to your trading!

After observing TESLAย  for a few years we have determined it trades more like a commodity stock (abc’s) than a growth stock, and have dropped it from our charts. In its place we have added a few things. Fed-Ex (pg. 13), Intelsat (pg. 14), and GBTC (pg. 13) the pink sheet Bitcoin ETF. Under commodities on page 8 we have added to Gold and Crude, the CME Bitcoin index and Soybeans. Biotech remains on that page. The Housing index has been moved to page 15 with the housing stats. New Year improvement? Possible.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: downtrend probable

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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551 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Scott J says:

    I m somewhat new here. Love the analysis, however the bantering reminds me of a recent article I read: https://www.npr.org/2019/01/09/683177489/virginia-study-finds-increased-school-bullying-in-areas-that-voted-for-trump

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  2. FYI -….I do like SLV right here. Maybe, it is because, no one here is writing about the advance in SLC shares…going to be fun…

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    • Bud, Phil’s been talking about SLV all week. Even posted a Hi Ho Silver clip. I’m not sure what SLC has to do with SLV though.

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      • xEVAx says:

        Cant find a quote on SLC? but SLV looks kinda scary along with gold/GDX, $$$ down would help i bet…. Ive been beaten down there for a long time…. Recently everyone hated it and all I had was hope, yea you know what thats worth…. Im with you but Im not expecting much :/

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        • fionamargaret says:

          Eva..think SLV is down to 13.5, and maybe even 11/12.
          Nice to work with you…let’s see how we can make money on Monday, and if there is anything you would like me to look at, just say and we can compare notes.
          Oil is in equilibrium…no defined pattern short or long…and TLT is in a positive pattern, so no TBT unless the numbers change……
          Have a nice weekend….x

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          • xEVAx says:

            You know Im NOT even in stocks except for guns and gold .) It wont break my heart either way if we break out here but my gut said BEAR all year last year…. I recently switched to looking at the bull case and yes there are very bullish charts I have but nobody really knows…. Demographics, fundamentals and lately even sentiment have swung me back to the bear side.) That’s VT, Vanguard total world stock ETF for my GDOW critic .)

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          • xEVAx says:

            Just checking this out and this ETF has 8063 holdings, the top 60 reads like The USA indexes but Id say it’s about as “international” as anything…..

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        • SLC….. Seattle Liquor Centre…… Bud refreshes there from time to time.๐Ÿ˜†๐Ÿ˜‚

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  3. Dex T says:

    Tomorrow Trump will set the record for the longest shutdown in U.S. history. Quite a feat!

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  4. Calm before storm? Rolling over? I see zero candlestick patterns on 1 minute to 1 day chart this trading day. Extreme complacency or waiting for next weeks earnings perhaps? My visual chart recognition looks like we can get a small move higher to perhaps 2615 BUT I would be very surprised if it manages any move above that. Last month earnings forecast was dropped. A low bar to hit seems to indicate that by itself will not drive the market either way. Events perhaps? Not many here agree with me on this but as i stated 2 years ago once impeachment is on the horizon more dangerous actions will take place. Emergency funds and government closure is only the beginning. Funny how all this is happening in condensed fashion. he had 2 years to demand these things with a complete GOP sweep. Desperate times, desperate person.

    Can the market sustain any long period rally in this environment? You know my answer.

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    • Last time we had 4 weeks in a row gains? Next week will makes it 4

      Mnuchin defended lifting Russian sanctions to congress. All trump voters must agree as Pompeo rips Obama defending Trumps policy. Seems we ARE leaving Syria. When will treasonous behavior end? After Mueller report? Doubt it. My real question is are we no longer part of the alliance? when did we switch sides? Sad, so sad. More importantly will the American people accept this change as the Russian people have. in their excuse they never knew democracy. Whats ours?

      Living in one of the most darkest period of our democracy and many still don’t understand this. Love the silence from my responses. Not a single person seems to support my wild views on democracy. To do so go against Tony. Destroying our democracy from within. “We don’t know what we missed till it’s gone”.

      I suggest most here ignore the Mueller report and it’s conclusion. I already know what it will say. Call me clairvoyant. Let the games begin! next week should be interesting. Will we hit 4 weeks in a row? Will the PPT defend the market at all costs here?

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  5. xEVAx says:

    Dollar to $84???

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  6. phil1247 says:

    Brick wall at 2595

    tonys pivot
    previous extension long target

    looks like they will have to gap over it
    next week since they cant go thru

    have a great weekend tony
    and all

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  7. gary61b says:

    Tony, It seems lethargic today….https://gyazo.com/9229c3cd61fa1eb40b8f6bc704e23622

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  8. micky says:

    Various reasons for this stall,one is found on my trading for dummies daily chart, the stuff Phil doesn’t like….the daily 1 SD

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  9. Twosidedtape1 says:

    The rally’s reached the point where everyone’s looking around at each other and saying “you first.”

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