REVIEW
A difficult equity market continues. The week started at SPX 2747. After a gap up opening on Monday the market rallied to SPX 2789 by Tuesday morning. That was the high for the week as a selloff began shortly after that high. Despite a gap up opening on Wednesday the market ended near SPX 2700 that day, traded down below 2700 on Thursday, and down to 2647 Friday morning. A drop of 5% in just four days. A bounce on Friday ended the week at SPX 2691. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.55%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.15%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: pending/new home sales, durable goods, Q4 GDP, Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, consumer confidence, personal income/spending, the CPI, ISM, and jobless claims improved. Next week will be highlighted by monthly payrolls and the FED’s beige book.
LONG TERM: uptrend
Just when it began to look like February’s 12% selloff was enough to end Intermediate wave iv. And the SPX had started Int. wave v. with a 10% rally off that low. The market made another volatile reversal and dropped 5% in just four days. This action would not have been too surprising, if it weren’t for the perfect technical setup at the low and the
WROC trigged in its aftermath. It’s tough to make a call in either direction at this point. But we still favor the Int. wave v underway scenario.
The long term wave pattern remains unchanged. Primary II ended in early 2016, and a Major wave 1, of Primary III, began at that time. Major wave 1 is dividing into five Intermediate waves. Int. waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Intermediate wave iii then started to subdivide. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended in the fall of 2016. Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017. Then a lengthy Minor wave 5, of Int. iii, ended in January. After that the above noted 12% selloff occurred which should have ended Int. iv.
MEDIUM TERM: still favor uptrend underway
After reaching the current Int. wave iv low at SPX 2533. The market rallied strongly to 2754, pulled back to 2698 in three waves, then rallied again to 2789. All looked fine for an uptrend underway scenario until the market reversed hard off that second high on Tuesday. Then it cascaded its way down 140+ points by Friday to SPX 2647. The volatility witnessed throughout most of February reemerged at the beginning of March.
This week’s activity allows for a second short term count to emerge: an ongoing Int. iv. Under this scenario the February low at SPX 2533 is Minor wave A, SPX 2789 is Minor B, and Minor C is underway. When it concludes, probably after retesting SPX 2533, then Intermediate wave v would begin. Medium term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots.
SHORT TERM
As noted earlier we are still favoring an ongoing uptrend from the February SPX 2533 low. Minor wave 1 would be SPX 2754, and Minor 2 would now be an irregular zigzag: 2698-2789-2647 so far. At SPX 2647 Minor wave 2 has retraced about 50% of Minor 1. Any further downside activity would naturally make this count even more questionable.
Volatile, fast moving, choppy market. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum is rising off a positive divergence at Friday’s lows. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
Asian markets were all lower and lost 1.6%.
European markets were also all lower and lost 3.7%.
The DJ World index lost 2.3%, and the NYSE lost 2.5%.
COMMODITIES
Bonds remain in a downtrend and finished the week flat.
Crude is in a downtrend and lost 3.7% for the week.
Gold also in a downtrend and lost 0.5% on the week.
The USD appears to be in an uptrend and gained 0.5% on the week.
NEXT WEEK
Monday: ISM services. Tuesday: factory orders. Wednesday: the ADP, trade deficit, Beige book and consumer credit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims. Friday: monthly payrolls and wholesale inventories
in no mans land at the moment 2711 low 2732 high at 2722.50 almost right in the middle90 minutes left rally or fade into the close for tomorrows set up
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What does that mean please? Rally or fade? I am currently risking the loss of a margin trade based on posts here, I was informed by Mr. Darvis that expert wave personnel frequently post here, my current position seems trapped in a high doji angel wing, I do not want to fall off and need direction. TY.
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Funny.
But to be a nice guy, I will answer your question very politely.
If we continue going higher from 2722.50 into the close, thats a rally. and close at the highs opens the door for a gap and go tomorrow. (Rally)
close lower then 2722.50 will be a fade and open up a possible gap down tomorrow.
between 2711-2732 could go either way. Watch the close and enjoy your afternoon.
Market may have already made its mind up.Rally
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Acts of kindness are their own reward.
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+1000
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Dont base your trades on someone elses work if you dont understand what they are doing. Market might be ready to take a dive…..but all trading decisions have to be your own.
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I know, TY. But I am trying to understand more about OEW, I don’t know where to go, I have half of the cyllabus, but some pages were missing, it was my neighbor’s who is in the hospital with a terrible staph infection he never got it either and suggested I come here. I don’t know if this is the same thread, but a high doji angel wing is a OEW trigger according to Mr. Raghib Darvas, he said this is what Mr. Kaldaro teaches. Is this correct?
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I have never learned OEW…..I have studied many other techniques…Gann, Bayer, Edwards and Magee, EW and my own methods. You need to talk with Tony Caldero.
Find the email button below the Updates
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scotty………….. its the troll ……….. dont answer him
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TY for your help. I feel I have wasted the whole day, I thought this was OEW assistance, I have lost money today based on the advice of OEW people in here. I have also studied the Fine and Howard method it is not similar to this, I hope Mr. responds what if he is busy? Is there another OEW site with experts? I cannot afford to lose anymore. I am angry that people told me market was going down according to OEW. Why would people do that? I hope I do not lose more overnight.
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I’d be willing to help you, if you wish. But, it would have to
be private/email communication vs here on OEW website.
My email is bud_67@hotmail.com
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First lesson, Spell his name correctly.
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You’re a funny guy, “high doji angel wing”.
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you could try to learn to read the chart. Count the highs and lows,
1,2,3,4,5…..5 being the top. Now look at this chart
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/#jp-carousel-21170
from left to right, you can see he(caldaro) has plotted
the 5 wave, using i,ii, iii, iv, and v (1 thru 5)…
you may note the chart lettering/numbers are in colors.
Orange, green and Purple. The green number lettering is a
wave count, 1 thru 5. these are the various levels of wave counts.
From here, the description becomes more difficult to describe.
Would help if you were off my right shoulder, that said.
Best I let another, do the description, or buy study
material from Tony C.
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Squaring of price and time indicate major flight to the moon this week! March- “in like a lion -out like a lamb:.From the Rabbit hole.
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Is that part of this method? Mr. darvas told me watch for the rocketship candle and ride it high. Do I square the price or time axis or smooth with a 144 sma as practiced by Fine and Howard?
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chris
here is your buy set up at 2720 ………………..
good luck if you take it ..i am not interested
i am going outside
see ya !
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ok took a small one at 22
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going nowhere and got to leave
out at 23
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asa
go outside…….. last sun till after snowstorm
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The market wants to resume it’s uptrend and i suspect it will as long as no major external event takes place. That seems less likely this year. I am still using the tweet meter to determine any glitches that can derail this.
I see 3 possible ending moves assuming news doesn’t disrupt . 1 – a double top or slightly higher ether on Friday the 16th or on the 19th of March. 2 – We either retrace and resume yet one more push up to around 2988, or 3 – we fail to go any higher than double top and start the 20 percent drop. In either case i do not see this uptrend lasting much beyond April. May thru September should be decidedly down. Assumptions only based on current model and news.
News of a trade war being implemented is a game changer. No technical chart will account for it.
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I remember a time when a girl would post as a guy and then back as a girl again. That would be a dame-changer. No technical chat will account for it.
Just some lightness (and nothing else) to bring some variety into a rather dull day. 🙂
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.23 retrace to 2711 could be it. onward and upward for wave 3
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HOD is in and we are heading to HH for the day.
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meant LOD not HOD
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DH algorithm and /VX are trading very, very, very technically and both are in bearish mode for equities. Have a feeling both will force /ES to a measured move LONG from much lower, yet to be determined, levels.
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See, the magazine cover indicator is neutral but the SPY candle indicates an inside day. Confusing.
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..all the numbers point down..
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…and VXX is in a sequence to 72..
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But that is not a fibonacci number. Are you using rule of 72 to determine high/low percentage break in VIX?
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VXX is trading at 44.05 and the only sequence that is viable goes to 72 ….
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fiona In answer to question about grains and the depression. Grains an cotton made their lows in 1932. Cotton went to 5 cents and I believe beans went to 44 cents.Its been a long time since I had my Gann course but had all those charts and numbers at one time. Grains were generally higher through the 1930s but not straight up.
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Thank you Bill.
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Could you explain please? I shorted, SP now swinging up. What numbers pointed down?
Is it short-term? The double harami tells me this may not last. TY..
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I am in stitches 🙂
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Should add.The analysis is valid when/if /ES trades below 2708.13
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Wrong door there asa No offense but Mat has made calls real time here that make DH look like a Newbie
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hardly
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fotis2..I just trade with the DH system/algorithm and I am doing just fine thank you very much. My posts are only meant to share this knowledge….and like my mother used to say, “if the shoe fits, wear it. If not, throw it away.”
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No offense to anyone but all these “triggered signals” give me the creeps. If anyone has something that is really convincing I’d be very interested. Until then, price is what matters and the only thing we have so far is a simple ‘abc’ down. That’s all. Any arguments? If you really have something I’d like to hear it. Thanks and good luck to all.
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I don’t see an ABC down, I have iii up but huge divergence on the cloud patterns as well as an imposing Hindenburg Omen. MACD histogram is shrinking, Q pattern is leading a penant on SPX, I don’t want the breakout to be the wrong way.
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Thanks for responding Irish. I am mostly reacting to those who say with great confidence that we are going down. Maybe…maybe not. All those “indicators” if you look at each and consider the accuracy rating they are pretty pathetic. Furthermore, they are NOT additive. Mathematically speaking, if one has a 40% probability of being right and another has a 25% probability of being right…you don’t add the percentages you multiply, which, in effect gives you a probability of (.25 x .40) = 0.10. Consequently, I have to put a low level of forecast probability on them. Therefore, I have to go back to price again.
The abc down I was referring to is on the micro scale, as in, could very well be a small wave 4. So, right now, the possibilities are that we could go up or we could go down, but realistically, very little probability advantage going either way. at least that’s how I see it at the moment. Until price tells me otherwise, I’m waiting and watching.
Thanks and good luck.
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TY. I sold short on margin based on other comments. This is not good.
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Baloney
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PSA: Ignore the troll. The voodoo person is the same person as the crusty person. Same troll. Different names.
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agree
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same guy…2 min research shows that he is the same person…same twitter background, same followers, exact same topics and posts, same verbiage…some ppl just have too much time on their idle hands
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Are these comments for me? Why the hate? I am simply looking for OEW direction, my goal is to be a great day trader like my mentor, Raghib Darvas. I am confused by some of his signals and triggers, this is not the place to get direction? But, I followed advice given on many posts, I am underwater and afraid I will follow the wrong wave. Does anyone have a wave crest top on the 5 minute? Mr. Darvas told me to surf that to inflection on the P & F chart. Correct?
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Why baloney? I read these comments, many people stated strong sell and Down Down Down. I sold SPY short, luckily my margin is only $25,000, I would have gone in stronger, but others were giving me contrary reads. Currently, I am still in flux. I have three white blackbirds on the 30-min, but strangely, a double butterfly on the daily. This would indicate the Hindenburg has crashed on the upright Q pennant. I have never seen this in OEW. Help please?
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im with you Rick.BTW there is a bser over here, OEW does not give any buy or sell signals, especially this ST stuff.
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Amen
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? I am using the 5, 10 and 45 min charts, all recommended by Mr. Kaldaro, or so I was informed by Raghab Darvis on his private blog. Is this not accurate?
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Phil es what did 10.25 do to your 10.5?
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i dont trust ext now .
..they were front running it at .38 before and now it cant hold 618
what does that tell you ?
plus ym has a blatant ext fail
anyway es is bearish below 2725.25
so you wouldnt be buying anyway….. right ?
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It looks to me like ES on 2711 held.
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but I see what you are saying on YM
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i know chris
but believe me … one or 2 ticks breaking may not seem like anything
but almost always that foreshadows a bounce and then it fails with a vengence
i have seen this too many times to ignore it
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OK, so if it breaks 61.8, even by a tick or two, you typically will not rejoin?
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until 2725.25 is traded above
then buy a pullback that holds .618 retrace
but this is a horrible place to get involved
with 2735 resistance just above
not really interested
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What other markets do you trade? I can tell you from watch fx, 61.8 gets tripped constantly.
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From personal experience totally useless on metals Crude and FX
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gold is starting to shape up
i have a small long but its shaping up nicely
just needs to do a little more and 1418 target can be hit
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Ok, I am not really asking what you are trading now though. I would like to know what you watch. Based on your comments, I am guessing currencies are not what you watch.
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only euro and dxy
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It looks like OEW just triggered a strong sell signal. Anyone else get that confirmation? Also confirmed by Ichimoku cloud and OVB. Is it short or long-term?
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OEW did nothing of the sort.
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Then what do you see? I’m right in the middle of the cloud and the breadth indicator is weak. Typically down, but the candle is contrary.
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PS-I also have a 55-day retest of the low, but some use the 89-day. Big difference, it is personal preference but the cloud count uses different numbers.
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Hmmm. how exactly does OEW trigger a sell signal? Thanks
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The Voodoo person is the same as the the Crusty person. One troll with multiple names.
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I have a break in iii with a Hindenburg Omen. Volume and breadth light. But biggest concern is the cloud.
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Looks like another failed countertrend rally with a C wave underway.. this one could be tasty, finish off the correction next week maybe
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yes mcg
ym leads the way
short traded .. target 23800
but 24500 must fail to get the ball rolling
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During the depression, were grains etc. higher or lower in price..just asking with a look to buy DBA…
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Grains were higher, due to weather, i.e. the dustbowl. Back then, about 30% of all jobs were agriculture related. When the dustbowl hit, it was part of what made the depression and record high unemployment.
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Thanks MJT, I should have looked it up and not bothered you…but it is nice to have a human response.
If one thinks another depression is coming, how would one invest??
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