Weekend update


A difficult equity market continues. The week started at SPX 2747. After a gap up opening on Monday the market rallied to SPX 2789 by Tuesday morning. That was the high for the week as a selloff began shortly after that high. Despite a gap up opening on Wednesday the market ended near SPX 2700 that day, traded down below 2700 on Thursday, and down to 2647 Friday morning. A drop of 5% in just four days. A bounce on Friday ended the week at SPX 2691. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.55%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.15%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: pending/new home sales, durable goods, Q4 GDP, Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, consumer confidence, personal income/spending, the CPI, ISM, and jobless claims improved. Next week will be highlighted by monthly payrolls and the FED’s beige book.

LONG TERM: uptrend

Just when it began to look like February’s 12% selloff was enough to end Intermediate wave iv. And the SPX had started Int. wave v. with a 10% rally off that low. The market made another volatile reversal and dropped 5% in just four days. This action would not have been too surprising, if it weren’t for the perfect technical setup at the low and the
WROC trigged in its aftermath. It’s tough to make a call in either direction at this point. But we still favor the Int. wave v underway scenario.

The long term wave pattern remains unchanged. Primary II ended in early 2016, and a Major wave 1, of Primary III, began at that time. Major wave 1 is dividing into five Intermediate waves. Int. waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Intermediate wave iii then started to subdivide. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended in the fall of 2016. Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017. Then a lengthy Minor wave 5, of Int. iii, ended in January. After that the above noted 12% selloff occurred which should have ended Int. iv.

MEDIUM TERM: still favor uptrend underway

After reaching the current Int. wave iv low at SPX 2533. The market rallied strongly to 2754, pulled back to 2698 in three waves, then rallied again to 2789. All looked fine for an uptrend underway scenario until the market reversed hard off that second high on Tuesday. Then it cascaded its way down 140+ points by Friday to SPX 2647. The volatility witnessed throughout most of February reemerged at the beginning of March.

This week’s activity allows for a second short term count to emerge: an ongoing Int. iv. Under this scenario the February low at SPX 2533 is Minor wave A, SPX 2789 is Minor B, and Minor C is underway. When it concludes, probably after retesting SPX 2533, then Intermediate wave v would begin. Medium term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots.


As noted earlier we are still favoring an ongoing uptrend from the February SPX 2533 low. Minor wave 1 would be SPX 2754, and Minor 2 would now be an irregular zigzag: 2698-2789-2647 so far. At SPX 2647 Minor wave 2 has retraced about 50% of Minor 1. Any further downside activity would naturally make this count even more questionable.

Volatile, fast moving, choppy market. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum is rising off a positive divergence at Friday’s lows. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were all lower and lost 1.6%.

European markets were also all lower and lost 3.7%.

The DJ World index lost 2.3%, and the NYSE lost 2.5%.


Bonds remain in a downtrend and finished the week flat.

Crude is in a downtrend and lost 3.7% for the week.

Gold also in a downtrend and lost 0.5% on the week.

The USD appears to be in an uptrend and gained 0.5% on the week.


Monday: ISM services. Tuesday: factory orders. Wednesday: the ADP, trade deficit, Beige book and consumer credit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims. Friday: monthly payrolls and wholesale inventories

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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620 Responses to Weekend update

  1. in no mans land at the moment 2711 low 2732 high at 2722.50 almost right in the middle90 minutes left rally or fade into the close for tomorrows set up

    • What does that mean please? Rally or fade? I am currently risking the loss of a margin trade based on posts here, I was informed by Mr. Darvis that expert wave personnel frequently post here, my current position seems trapped in a high doji angel wing, I do not want to fall off and need direction. TY.

      • Funny.
        But to be a nice guy, I will answer your question very politely.
        If we continue going higher from 2722.50 into the close, thats a rally. and close at the highs opens the door for a gap and go tomorrow. (Rally)
        close lower then 2722.50 will be a fade and open up a possible gap down tomorrow.
        between 2711-2732 could go either way. Watch the close and enjoy your afternoon.
        Market may have already made its mind up.Rally

      • scottycj1 says:

        Dont base your trades on someone elses work if you dont understand what they are doing. Market might be ready to take a dive…..but all trading decisions have to be your own.

        • I know, TY. But I am trying to understand more about OEW, I don’t know where to go, I have half of the cyllabus, but some pages were missing, it was my neighbor’s who is in the hospital with a terrible staph infection he never got it either and suggested I come here. I don’t know if this is the same thread, but a high doji angel wing is a OEW trigger according to Mr. Raghib Darvas, he said this is what Mr. Kaldaro teaches. Is this correct?

          • scottycj1 says:

            I have never learned OEW…..I have studied many other techniques…Gann, Bayer, Edwards and Magee, EW and my own methods. You need to talk with Tony Caldero.
            Find the email button below the Updates

            • phil1247 says:

              scotty………….. its the troll ……….. dont answer him

            • TY for your help. I feel I have wasted the whole day, I thought this was OEW assistance, I have lost money today based on the advice of OEW people in here. I have also studied the Fine and Howard method it is not similar to this, I hope Mr. responds what if he is busy? Is there another OEW site with experts? I cannot afford to lose anymore. I am angry that people told me market was going down according to OEW. Why would people do that? I hope I do not lose more overnight.

          • First lesson, Spell his name correctly.

      • stcoleridge says:

        You’re a funny guy, “high doji angel wing”.

      • Bud Fox says:

        you could try to learn to read the chart. Count the highs and lows,
        1,2,3,4,5…..5 being the top. Now look at this chart
        from left to right, you can see he(caldaro) has plotted
        the 5 wave, using i,ii, iii, iv, and v (1 thru 5)…
        you may note the chart lettering/numbers are in colors.

        Orange, green and Purple. The green number lettering is a
        wave count, 1 thru 5. these are the various levels of wave counts.
        From here, the description becomes more difficult to describe.
        Would help if you were off my right shoulder, that said.
        Best I let another, do the description, or buy study
        material from Tony C.

    • rabbittrader1 says:

      Squaring of price and time indicate major flight to the moon this week! March- “in like a lion -out like a lamb:.From the Rabbit hole.

  2. phil1247 says:


    here is your buy set up at 2720 ………………..

    good luck if you take it ..i am not interested
    i am going outside
    see ya !

  3. phil1247 says:


    go outside…….. last sun till after snowstorm

  4. Holly Silver says:

    The market wants to resume it’s uptrend and i suspect it will as long as no major external event takes place. That seems less likely this year. I am still using the tweet meter to determine any glitches that can derail this.

    I see 3 possible ending moves assuming news doesn’t disrupt . 1 – a double top or slightly higher ether on Friday the 16th or on the 19th of March. 2 – We either retrace and resume yet one more push up to around 2988, or 3 – we fail to go any higher than double top and start the 20 percent drop. In either case i do not see this uptrend lasting much beyond April. May thru September should be decidedly down. Assumptions only based on current model and news.

    News of a trade war being implemented is a game changer. No technical chart will account for it.

    • I remember a time when a girl would post as a guy and then back as a girl again. That would be a dame-changer. No technical chat will account for it.

      Just some lightness (and nothing else) to bring some variety into a rather dull day. 🙂

  5. .23 retrace to 2711 could be it. onward and upward for wave 3

  6. HOD is in and we are heading to HH for the day.

  7. quickrick38 says:

    No offense to anyone but all these “triggered signals” give me the creeps. If anyone has something that is really convincing I’d be very interested. Until then, price is what matters and the only thing we have so far is a simple ‘abc’ down. That’s all. Any arguments? If you really have something I’d like to hear it. Thanks and good luck to all.

    • I don’t see an ABC down, I have iii up but huge divergence on the cloud patterns as well as an imposing Hindenburg Omen. MACD histogram is shrinking, Q pattern is leading a penant on SPX, I don’t want the breakout to be the wrong way.

      • quickrick38 says:

        Thanks for responding Irish. I am mostly reacting to those who say with great confidence that we are going down. Maybe…maybe not. All those “indicators” if you look at each and consider the accuracy rating they are pretty pathetic. Furthermore, they are NOT additive. Mathematically speaking, if one has a 40% probability of being right and another has a 25% probability of being right…you don’t add the percentages you multiply, which, in effect gives you a probability of (.25 x .40) = 0.10. Consequently, I have to put a low level of forecast probability on them. Therefore, I have to go back to price again.

        The abc down I was referring to is on the micro scale, as in, could very well be a small wave 4. So, right now, the possibilities are that we could go up or we could go down, but realistically, very little probability advantage going either way. at least that’s how I see it at the moment. Until price tells me otherwise, I’m waiting and watching.

        Thanks and good luck.

        • TY. I sold short on margin based on other comments. This is not good.

            • aahmichael says:

              PSA: Ignore the troll. The voodoo person is the same person as the crusty person. Same troll. Different names.

              • travis01 says:

                same guy…2 min research shows that he is the same person…same twitter background, same followers, exact same topics and posts, same verbiage…some ppl just have too much time on their idle hands

              • Are these comments for me? Why the hate? I am simply looking for OEW direction, my goal is to be a great day trader like my mentor, Raghib Darvas. I am confused by some of his signals and triggers, this is not the place to get direction? But, I followed advice given on many posts, I am underwater and afraid I will follow the wrong wave. Does anyone have a wave crest top on the 5 minute? Mr. Darvas told me to surf that to inflection on the P & F chart. Correct?

            • Why baloney? I read these comments, many people stated strong sell and Down Down Down. I sold SPY short, luckily my margin is only $25,000, I would have gone in stronger, but others were giving me contrary reads. Currently, I am still in flux. I have three white blackbirds on the 30-min, but strangely, a double butterfly on the daily. This would indicate the Hindenburg has crashed on the upright Q pennant. I have never seen this in OEW. Help please?

    • micky says:

      im with you Rick.BTW there is a bser over here, OEW does not give any buy or sell signals, especially this ST stuff.

  8. lunker1 says:

    Phil es what did 10.25 do to your 10.5?

  9. It looks like OEW just triggered a strong sell signal. Anyone else get that confirmation? Also confirmed by Ichimoku cloud and OVB. Is it short or long-term?

  10. mcgcapital says:

    Looks like another failed countertrend rally with a C wave underway.. this one could be tasty, finish off the correction next week maybe

    • phil1247 says:

      yes mcg

      ym leads the way
      short traded .. target 23800
      but 24500 must fail to get the ball rolling

    • fionamargaret says:

      During the depression, were grains etc. higher or lower in price..just asking with a look to buy DBA…

      • mjtplayer says:

        Grains were higher, due to weather, i.e. the dustbowl. Back then, about 30% of all jobs were agriculture related. When the dustbowl hit, it was part of what made the depression and record high unemployment.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Thanks MJT, I should have looked it up and not bothered you…but it is nice to have a human response.
          If one thinks another depression is coming, how would one invest??

  11. learnedmylesson25 says:

    1.Silver COT charts may be kicking in.Goldfingers crossed(Gold getting taken with silver)
    2.Ira’s Tuesday reversal(after a 1% move on Monday)t r y i n g to work.
    3.HYG is cushioning any equity fall by hanging around 85.80.Seems to have its sights set on filling 86.20 gap.We’ll see who wins that one.I figure HYG has to do its thing and unless it reverses,stocks wont reverse too hard.
    Good luck all.

  12. llerias7 says:


  13. from 2646 up to 2732 is 86 points. Perfect place for wave 1 of minute 3 to stop at, if you are in the Bull camp.
    all depends on the speed and depth of the decline a .318 retrace would be to 2705 a .5 to 2689 a .618 2679. a 3 wave decline to 2679 is still bullish. 2679 needs taken out in 1 swift wave, not in 3 waves to be in the bear camp. Next few days will show the markets hand.

    Good luck all

    • Also Soul Surfer or others who are showing a triangle as an option is in play to 2700 then bounce. B wavers need a Swoosh. otherwise looking more like minute 3 underway

  14. Difficult market at the moment.
    Watching volatility pick up again. Best is to wait for new direction.
    50 MA is at 2037, the longer we stay below the more bearish

  15. phil1247 says:

    ym bounced perfectly off .5 of its extension at 10 :11 am
    but starting to slip….

  16. quickrick38 says:

    It looks like the idiots on Wall Street were trying to shake out the bears…not doing a very good job it 🙂 Millenials 🙂

  17. fxaprendiz says:

    SPX already retraced 61.8% of the 2790-2645 downmove during the futures session. Now it would be a good moment to rollover and start c-wave (counting from 2790) down to the upper 2600 to complete wave 1 of an Ending Diagonal.

  18. gary61b says:

    ES I have unfinished business at 2724.. 75% retrace is usually a sign of corrective waves at 2732.5

  19. llerias7 says:

    Same o…same o…waves B morphing
    in a wave 3!!

  20. quickrick38 says:

    Unless we see a pullback right here followed by another high…this could well be a ‘B’ wave. Caution in in order.

    • scottycj1 says:

      I believe thats the right call….B wave is finished today…maybe tomorrow. Phil that target is within a half a point…think thats done. My daily algo has been in a sell for a week now and includes Dax, Ftse, Jpn, Spx and Ndx….only a matter of time before we finish C.

    • quickrick38 says:

      FYI, If we drop from here…AGAIN, that’s IF, then c=a at 2590ES.

  21. phil1247 says:

    es in extension long
    … keep looking up until the extension fails to hold support

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Yes I saw this Phil. So you just sit tight when the target is front run by a few ticks like that?

    • Hi phil. Looking at a potential observation developing this morning that I alluded to with abc123.and lunker1 last night. If you look at your chart, /ES/SPX could finish a 5 wave pattern this morning. of some degree (minute 1 ?) I expect a typical 50% retrace for wave 2 down (minute 2 ?). That would break the micro 61.8% LONG. Going to be interesting to see the upcoming pullback…and the next few micro LONGS that could develop over the next day or two..

      • Sorry it was jobjas last night, not lunker1

      • phil1247 says:

        asa …… i see that …
        but when i get into waves … i get into trouble

        • On the other hand, if EW has a 50% pullback (nano 2?) and at the same level, DH has a 50% micro long that gets defended…that will be my entry to buy some “SSO”

          • chrisk44342 says:

            I see what you try to do now Asa. When there is some symmetry between EW fibs and DH, that’s when act. I tend to fall more in line with Phil. E.G. if EW says we are (potentially) in an upwave of some kind, and nothing has disqualified that count, I look to shorter time frames to trade. I suppose it all depends on whether you swing trade or not (and what your definition of swing trading happens to be).

            • chrisk..I “have/use” EW in the back of my mind when I take a short or long position. For example, on a 1 or 5 minute chart, if I miss an entry into a long, from a EW perspective, I will wait for a 50% pullback before taking a long position in hopes for riding wave 3. Naturally DH method would also support that entry. Also, if I am going long, Ideally the tick would be weaker than -400 and wait for the arrow to turn up.. All these factors should in theory increase the probability of a profitable trade. Move up stop or have a disciplined mental stop.

              • chrisk44342 says:

                ok, sure. I don’t find much value in trading expected wave levels via EW. Traders ‘see’ patternicity in everything but in my opinion it often leads to confusion. E.G. you see 5 waves up on a 1 hour chart. It definitely looks impulsive, right? I just don’t find it actionable as it leads to a 7 or 9, and so on. The more valuable information was that we were in a larger degree wave 3, and to look for buys using something other than a wave count (like DH)

  22. mcgcapital says:

    Just an observation. These type of corrections typically double bottom 4-8 weeks after the initial low. We’re just over 3 weeks in and having a strong rally.. bulls will conclude that’s it now on the downside and new highs ahead. What’s more likely is we head back down soon. It’s the same on the downside, bears conclude we’re off to the lows and we don’t make it and begin another countertrend rally. Usually this goes on for a while and resolves in a break lower, hit the lows and sharp rally begins that has legs. Rates and tariffs the key things to watch.. 10 year has been edging back up, maybe NFP sees another attempt at 3%

  23. torehund says:

    Gap, flatlining over-bought yesterday, and today green futes. Strong and promising market. Btk has been testing the 4500 area for ages…time now ?

  24. magnus1234 says:

    DAX30: Blue correction wave A (in weekly chart) completed. We are now in for a return of the DAX to the 12500/1300 lvl for a Blue B. I am usually a little bit early in my calls but WTH trade what is in front of you.
    Weekly: https://www.screencast.com/t/Rgu69O6u
    Daily: https://www.screencast.com/t/RLBFllGY
    4h: https://www.screencast.com/t/dV84MUJdVeTb
    1h: https://www.screencast.com/t/uGfRK8RsxQQO

  25. fotis2 says:

    Vive Longer term buy if any pullbacks toward TL for upper BBs target 2790 fueling the DB for eventual move to 2920s stops 2640s

  26. syedsma says:

    Dear Crusty Investor,

    Can you please keep your comments market specific? Please let us know what you think Market is going to do next day, next week, or next month based on your technical and/or fundamental analysis.

    Derogatory comments do not help anyone.

    A lot of people visit this site (best in my opinion) and share their expert knowledge.

    Hope that you will do the same going forward.


    • Everyone wants him to go away, and yet everyone keeps feeding him so he’ll stay. Ignore him. Do nothing to acknowledge him, and he will eventually tire of us. Keep writing him personalized letters and we may as well abandon the forum to him.

    • hohoho598 says:

      And herein lies the problem, this is an OEW site, so everyone’s opinion makes it a quagmire that none one is able to navigate. I guess that’s what the market does confuse the masses with opinion pieces.

      Which one of the many “expert” opinions do you follow, or do you follow all of them? LOL

      • Hit it on the head. These asshats don’t even know what OEW is, but render free opinions based on sheer conjecture. It’s like a bunch of squatters came in and crapped all over the floor, didn’t pay the landlord for the pleasure, and now won’t leave. For God’s sake, start your own blog. These idiotic postings on OEW is like MAT placing an ad on a child porn site because the site is about kids. And not one of you feel any guilt about stealing product. C’mon Phil, keep the flavor that I’m bringing, cause I’m going to keep your heads a ringing.

  27. Sweet dreams, Uncle Fester, may men rain down on you all night:

  28. JESUS, MY HEAD HURTS. Can you even trade with this crap in your noggin?

    “So far the possible Ending Diagonal (c-wave of Intermediate 4) down from 2790 remains on track. The b-wave of wave 1 of the ED should be complete tomorrow if it didn’t complete today. Expecting around 2735 before the rollover. If SPX goes higher (Maybe 2760) then the ED will be less probable and I’ll be looking for a more direct route down.”

  29. kvilia says:

    Looks like the vermin has found the blog.

  30. Typical inane comment. Not only doesn’t follow OEM, it is so convoluted, you couldn’t possibly trade with this crap on your mind: “Mr C just looked at your DAX count and perhaps this is why mjt is confused (and possibly others). You have Major 5 of Primary V complete but you have not labelled Primary V. Then you have an abc correction from Major 5 of which the b wave is irregular meaning it goes even higher than Major 5. Not sure where you going with this count.”

  31. hohoho598 says:

    Hey Mr Crusty, I get the feel I’m on Daneric’s blog and it is a great laugh to alleviate an otherwise boring day.
    That being said, Tony provides his insight and that’s great, but with the myriad of other posts, charts, web links yada yada, it becomes dumbed down, because (lets face it) people post for confirmation bias to assure them that their trade will be a winner.
    I cannot express enough how glad I am volatility is back and most will need Valium to sleep at night. Up the big “V”, and President “T” for stirring the pot.

    • Dig it, hohoho. Dumbed down is an understatement. But I like the “posting for confirmation,” because that confirms crowd theory and OEM. I started posting for entertainment, but these pathetic, cheap, immoral troglodytes have the gall to think that they can gain knowledge without paying the price. And screwing over someone at the same time, stealing his product. Volatility will destroy these pretenders, it will be fun to read the angst in the postings.

  32. fxaprendiz says:

    So far the possible Ending Diagonal (c-wave of Intermediate 4) down from 2790 remains on track. The b-wave of wave 1 of the ED should be complete tomorrow if it didn’t complete today. Expecting around 2735 before the rollover. If SPX goes higher (Maybe 2760) then the ED will be less probable and I’ll be looking for a more direct route down.

    • Marketwatch? Do you watch Cramer, too?

      • stockop says:

        chill out man. i appreciated the article. you down big or what? gotta convince yourself you’re not stupid? nothing wrong with a few comments but you appeared out of nowhere and took the title of highest volume and most obnoxious poster

        • The issue right now is that we’re still unclear how the market will play out in the very short term. We can still go back to retest the low at 2530 or the wave 2 is still on-going as opposed to being done at 2647.

          That makes it more prudent to accept different views as to how to protect one’s profit from a couple of days again.

        • You appreciated the article because you have no faith in your ability, just another lemming looking for the black box of investments. And just another cheap ass who can’t afford to pay a man a measly $1k for his time and experience. Stockop-that’s funny. Why not form your hands into an iron condor on your groin, it’s all it’s probably ever felt.

  33. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Well all,we only have to go back to last Monday and Ira’s gimmick–if a Monday moves 1%,Tuesday is a reversal.can it go 2 for 2?

    • fionamargaret says:

      Tony can easily block someone he feels is not representational of his views, and is detrimental to the blog… unless he really would like just paid subscribers here.
      In that case would it not be easier to state that himself.
      Raymond James gives me an update every day, and I have no financial association with them.
      Chris Kimble the same.
      I think I have done a fair amount to attract subscribers, and I do not want strong-arm tactics to be used for payment to anyone on the site.
      Rudeness and crudeness are not what I associate with Tony at all.

      • I can only imagine that Tony has not been viewing the blog for the past 24 hours or so, Fiona. Your contributions have always been regular and appreciated by most. None of us are appreciated by all 🙂 I’m very happy to find you here.

        • fionamargaret says:

          ..as I am you…did not want to make a big thing about it…
          I am used to summations….I know…It has nothing to do with my feeling unappreciated..
          Tony is the only one who has the ability to block and give us the site back for fair exchange of ideas….x

        • Jesus, man, strap on a pair and quit having a gender issue. 10 years stalking this site, and never had the courtesy to pay the man for his insight? You are pathetic.

      • Correct. And exactly what have you done to “attract subscribers?” TC has a long-standing, excellent reputation among traders, which you are not. His WROC is legend.
        You have contributed zilch, other than some lukewarm pablum. And Raymond James and Chris Kimble are free, correct? So, what do you contribute other than stealing someone else’s work ?

  34. Page says:

    hey Crispy Crusty,
    Why don’t you STOP this silly noise, you are cluttering this valuable blog? Thanks.

  35. Gary Lewis says:

    As I mentioned last week, SPX and SLV would be testing the three-week lows. SLV was a little sloppy but SPX very clean looking. Expect it to test the highs from here. SLV did a three day test of the low today so that is looking good as well. Trading my plan and avoiding the noise here as I am resting in sunny Valle del Bravo Mexico.

  36. Billy says:

    I think we can put a fork in the 4 on the DAX.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Doesn’t get much better in regards to a 5 wave move with 5 sub-waves, the DAX is in trouble longer term. Short-term, looks like an ABC bounce is at hand…

    • Billy says:

      I’m sorry mjt, what are you talking about? The wave count on the chart says the DAX finished its wave 4 at today’s low and now it will rally to new all time highs. I even wrote it on the chart in plain swahili for anyone who is not well briefed on the implications of a 3-3-5 expanded flat. The 5 wave move down is the C wave and completes the correction. The DAX is no longer in a correction ad going higher squire.

    • Billy says:

      Mr C just looked at your DAX count and perhaps this is why mjt is confused (and possibly others). You have Major 5 of Primary V complete but you have not labelled Primary V. Then you have an abc correction from Major 5 of which the b wave is irregular meaning it goes even higher than Major 5. Not sure where you going with this count.

  37. Folks, everytime you respond, we lose. Let it go. Let it be. I know it is difficult – I’ve been there, trust me. You are outraged. So am I. But take deep breaths, and trade on. Every response strengthens that abhorrent behavior, and weakens us as a forum. Deep breaths, deep breaths, trade on.

    • phil1247 says:

      CN … you are absolutely right

      without responses …………he will disappear

      everyone should google what trolls are looking for and you will
      have the answer to make him disappear

      • Not a chance, Phil. Hey, let me know when BA drops to $330, are you using Ackmann’s algorithm? You are despicable parasites. Have any of you ever run a business? Do you know how aggravating it is to have someone steal your intellectual property, and then, even worse, pretend they can make it better? TC was ill, all I see are “get better Tony” “Thanks TC” The man has to make a living, he has provided you the base of knowledge, you are stealing his knowledge and I’m a troll? Admit you can’t afford a measly $1k, cheapass, because your feeble attempt at duplicating OEW sucks. You are the epitome of what is wrong in society today-cheap, self-centered, self-aggrandizing morons, who take more than they give because of inbred stupidity and laziness.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Agree CN.. I shouldn’t bite! Just annoying how he’s trying to pick on holly and fenster. Uses the same words over and over too, so clearly got a poor vocabulary 😬

    • lunker1 says:

      Probably the same guy that was spoof aliasing other guys user names a few weeks ago. Didn’t get enough attention so he stepped it up a notch.

      An angry troll that likes Tony. Haven’t seen that one before.

  38. I suggest all the carpetbaggers in this room pay Tony the $1k for his expertise. The gems he provides aside from reading waves are invaluable, and proven. Anyone asking “What is WROC?” Go away until you ante up. He specifically asks you NOT to share his intel, to keep OEW in the family. Trying to use your personal version of OEW is a joke-hey Phil, when BA hits $130 let me know-but you’ve just missed a HUGE advance. Good God, it’s not an end-all prediction-it’s a weapon in your arsenal. But again, OEW is valid because of human nature-primarily laziness.
    Anyone who says they’ve been following this blog for 10 years and you’re not fabulously wealthy? I guess you were too cheap to pay the $1k. You should all pay this man just for him allowing you to post your nonsense. Me, I paid, I studied and this is what I’m doing tonight:

    • aahmichael says:

      You could have paid Tony $100 million and you still would never have learned the #1 lesson that he teaches here every single day. I’m referring to the lesson on how to be a kind, humble, and giving human being.

      • Ah, the carpetbagger speaks. Another lesson is not to accept the stupidity of the masses. Like you. Now everyone knows you are one of the cheap asses who won’t ante up.
        Why don’t you work a double-shift at Mickey D’s and pay the man for his tolerance, since you are stealing his knowledge?

        • mcgcapital says:

          You do realise that hardly anyone posting here is an OEW student? I think there’s a private forum for that. There’s so much more to trading/markets than any single trading method, it would be boring if everyone had the same view

          • Then why the F are you here? It’s an OEW blog! That’s why he posts-updates for those that follow, and understand OEW. The forum is just the same nonsense, the mentally-challenged thinking they “get it,” when in fact, heredity will stop them from ever getting it. I can’t believe there is even any discussion and argument after he posts here. He invented it! Start your own blog, maybe call it “losers to cheap to pay a man for his knowledge and expertise, but, trust me, I’m smarter than him, look at my waves” You must be another one of the cheap asses who won’t pay up. Why not go on Prechter’s website? Oh yea, he’s not as giving as TC. Do any of you morons actually trade? Whats $1k for this knowledge? You probably still have student debt from Phoenix University and you think paying Tony isn’t worth it?

            • mcgcapital says:

              Personally only loosely believe in Elliott wave.. if Tony is tolerant enough to allow people to post from another standpoint then why can’t you be.. you’ve added nothing since you got here

              • Why can’t you pay $1k for the knowledge? Maybe if you did you’d have more faith in OEW, which is NOT EW. You’d know that if you weren’t so cheap. Oh, and my contribution-unlike all the others on here who can’t make a decision-that SPY would pop today, even gave stocks to watch-BA, DE, CAT, SQ and CY. Primarily based on the hysteria generated by the Trump haters, those too ignorant to understand how he plays the game, like those two dbags, Uncle Fester and Holly the crossdresser. And based on my own read of charts, including OEW for validation. If you had listened to me, you could pay your rent this month. Instead, if I’m not mistaken you are short, or, waiting for the “right time” to trade. You may be waiting forever with the obviously BS “system” you are using. Pay Tony and become a winner for once in your life.

              • mcgcapital says:

                Lol.. i trade full time for a living and have no other source of income. As Aah said, you have to find your own way of taking money out the market. I’ve followed TC for 5 years, he’s made some great calls and some pretty bad ones too in that time, as that’s the reality of trading. If I didn’t respect OEW or believe there was some edge to it i wouldn’t be here.. but have my own views and trade them. As for my position, as I’ve said many times last few weeks, playing this as a correction followed by sharp rally and then retest of the low. So far that’s worked pretty well for me. The money is made in the execution anyway, not the view. I was bearish this morning, proved to be wrong, covered my shorts around SPX 2695 when the market had turned positive and just uncovered them about an hour ago. If we break 2730 tomorrow I will exit everything and wait it out until I have more conviction in what the markets doing. All about having a trading plan and following it, don’t need to be right all the time as that’s not possible

              • aahmichael, my guess is you are on the Spectrum and have a difficult time functioning on a daily basis.

            • aahmichael says:

              There are a million ways to make money in the market. Tony is kind enough to provide this space to anyone who wants to contribute their ideas about the market, and anyone who wants to learn from others. 99.9% of people who are successful traders, investors, or money managers, find their own path to success. They don’t blindly follow anyone else.

            • fenster6 says:

              Which stone did you crawl out from under. We had a very polite forum here with excellent exchange of ideas and respect for Tony until you showed up.

              I suspect your boast of having pain $1000 is fake like most of your other posts, but if not please do go to the paid forum unless your goal id to send everyone scurrying from this site.

              • aahmichael says:

                My guess is that he got kicked out of the paid forum.

              • How’d you do today, Uncle Fester? How did that Trump Mania affect your trading? Did you see how BA did today? I’ve watched this site for awhile-BS political postings, some idiots talking about “Da Boys” and not one valid complement to Tony’s blog. Just crap from life’s perennial losers. Again, you are just another cheap ass pretender, destined to be a continual loser unless you invest the time, effort and money to succeed.

      • SPYtrader says:

        aah must have flunked that lesson from Tony. He is one of the biggest haters here.

  39. stan911 says:

    Fotis that chart you had with the ihns I have a target of 2743

  40. I was 37 when I started reading Tony’s blog. I am recently turned 50. No matter how old I get, I doubt I will ever fathom the enjoyment some folks get from treating other folks so poorly.

    But In other news, my son traded his very first Big Up today – he is long SPY – One Whole Share!

    • phil1247 says:

      he has to get his feet wet …. right ?

      he could be Cygne Noir

    • Billy says:

      Congratulations on your son’s trade. Hope its a winner. Got my 7 year-old in on an assortment of global equites and add a bit each month. Big believer in Mr C’s expectation of a major up cycle lasting into the early 2030s. Maybe down the track he can buy mom and dad a couple “His & Hers” wheelchairs. As far as those other entities you mentioned, a minority of Homo sapiens lack a functional capacity for introspection. As luck would have it it’s not treatable.

  41. phil1247 says:


    re DH analog
    agree .. whenever David starts out with correlations like that
    it seems to never work out for him

    he should just stick to his knitting…. which he is good at

    also re BITCOIN analog.. its dead
    you wont hear me talking about it again
    hope you didnt put any money on it
    it was cool tho ……….while it was working

    • Hi phil. IMHO,DH’s fractal on the 1987 crash to today’s trading is going to be a bust. But he continues with it. However, ES and the VIX has a very, very strong correlation. Was going to sell my longs today but waited to see if the VIX 61.8% LONG would break. It did so I am staying LONG. If it defended I would have sold and went 100% into cash until I had some clarity. BTW enjoy your posts. Still in and out with construction matters but plan to move back in, the first week in April!

      • purplember says:

        DH method isn’t looking that great. sometimes it dips into 61% line then runs away. he was very bearish about 2694 / 2703 line in the sand – um that didn’t work

        • Hi purplember Not to put words in DH’s mouth. He trades according to the fibs. no exceptions. He presents observations, not trading calls at times. The current observation is, he has been leaning bearish off the intermediate wave iii high. He is following the October 1987 fractal but as an observation, not trade-able. IMHO that will be a bust.

          However, some of his “daily fractals” for example (not current trading activity) on /ES trading for the past few days has been bullish for the first 1/2 hour of trading and then selling off at 10:00 AM another one is at 11:30 AM, EST the European close, often sees a reversal of trend trading from the NYSE open.. At times is very accurate.

      • phil1247 says:

        thanks asa

        hey .. we should have stayed on vacation
        snow again…. when will it ever end ?

    • Great posts, thank you for all your hard work. 2 quick questions…
      1. Do you expect minor wave 3 to subdivide (I am assuming yes).
      2, do you expect minor wave 3 to be 1.1618 times minor wave 1?

      • should be 1.618 times wave 1

      • jobjas says:

        All waves subdivide question is weather it is tradable or not ( not talking about day traders ) One need to track the 5 waves in the present wave 3 to pinpoint the end of wave 3 (in addition to expecting 1.68 times wave 1)

      • jobjas says:

        All waves subdivide question is weather it is tradable or not ( not talking about day traders ) One need to track the 5 waves in the present wave 3 to pinpoint the end of wave 3 (in addition to expecting 1.68 times wave 1)

        • Hi jobjas Thanks for your reply. Let me reword my question. abc123 is drawing up waves of micro waves (gold) off minor wave 2 low. My question is will abc123 wait until minute wave 3 of minor wave begins to then assess whether or not wave 3 will subdivide? Assuming of course the structure of micro waves of minute waves 1 and 2 follow OEW.

          • jobjas says:

            Project monitor adjust . One should start labelling the waves as they develop – in this case as minor waves with the possibility that these may be waves of one degree lower – only time will tell Atleast your direction is set and modify the labels as the wave proceeds

      • 123 abc says:

        1. Expecting observable subdivisions definitely into the Micro degree, and possibly the Nano degree, and not the Pico degree. Tony mentioned two weeks ago that because of the large drop of Intermediate-iv wave, Intermediate-v is likely to be a one trend affair making marginal highs; and so this would limit the degree of subdivisions:

        2. Yes, a 1:1.618 relationship is typical, which would be at 3062. Minimum expectation is at least a 1:1 relationship at 2904.

        P.S. my posts are guesswork based on intuitive feel, not the rigour of OEW expertise!

  42. Bud Fox says:

    Hello….well, last 2 days have done nothing to increase
    my Bullish position. That said. The Bullish posture is not
    looking so great, as days prior.
    I am becoming more Bearish, and have moved my SSO
    investment to cash at the close.
    At the close today 3/5. The SP looks toppy, thus. Expecting
    early next week to start a decline. in my view…Bud

  43. For Uncle Fester and Holly the crossdresser-may you have better luck trolling tonight than you did in the market today:

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