Weekend update


The week started at SPX 2575. After a higher open on Monday to a new all-time high of SPX 2578 the market started to pullback. By Wednesday noon the SPX had reached 2544, and then started to rally. Thursday and Friday both had gap up openings and the market made a new all-time high at SPX 2583. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.40%. Economic reports for the week were quite light. On the downtick: consumer sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: Q3 GDP, durable goods and new home sales. A plethora of economic reports next week, highlighted by the FOMC meeting, monthly payrolls, and the ISM’s.

LONG TERM: uptrend

After a one month simple Micro 1 to SPX 2491 by August , we tracked the Nano and Pico waves of a two month Micro 3. That nine wave pattern completed on Monday at SPX 2578. Then after a simple and short Micro 4 by Wednesday, the market rallied to new highs on Friday during Micro 5. While Micros 1 and 3 were quite long in time. We’re not expecting Micro 5 to put on that kind of display. In fact it could end by next week at the OEW 2594 pivot range.

The long term count remains unchanged. A Major wave 1 bull market started at SPX 1810 in February 2016. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Then Intermediate iii started to subdivide. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5 has been underway since then. When Minor 5 concludes it will end Intermediate iii. Then after an Intermediate iv correction, Intermediate v will carry the market to yet again new highs. This bull market has a ways to go in time and price.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

This Minor wave 5 uptrend began way back in April at SPX 2329. It has already risen 254 SPX points, which puts it somewhere in the middle of the three previous uptrends. Those uptrends travelled 301, 202 and 317 points respectively. The count we have been tracking suggests the uptrend is still in Minute iii, with Minute waves iv and v yet to come.

This suggests this Minor 5 uptrend is likely to travel some 300+ points before it concludes. This fits quite well with our upside target to Minor 5 /Int. iii between the OEW 2632 and 2656 pivots. Medium term support is at the 2575 and 2525 pivots, with resistance at the 2594 pivot.


The two month Micro 3 count we had been tracking unfolded as follows. Nano 1. 2455, Nano 2. 2428, Nano 3. 2480-2447-2509-2488-2564, Nano 4. 2548, Nano 5. 2578. That concluded on Monday this week. Then after a two-day Micro wave 4 to SPX 2544, the market rallied to new highs on Friday during Micro 5.

When Micro 5 concludes, so does Minute wave iii, then Minute iv should decline about 50 +/- points. Possibly back to the SPX 2540’s again if it tops at the OEW 2594 pivot range. Then after Minute iv concludes Minute v will carry the market to new all-time highs as the Minor wave 5 uptrend continues. Short term support is at the 2575 pivot and SPX 2544, with resistance at the 2594 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were mostly higher on the week and gained 1.0%.

European markets were mixed but gained 0.7%.

The DJ World index was flat, and the NYSE lost 0.5%.


Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 0.1%.

Crude is still in an uptrend and gained 4.0%.

Gold continues to downtrend and lost 0.7%.

The USD remains in an uptrend and gained 1.0%.


Monday: personal income/spending at 8:30. Tuesday: Case-Shiller, the Chicago PMI and consumer confidence. Wednesday: the ADP, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, auto sales, and the FOMC statement. Thursday, jobless claims. Friday: monthly payrolls (est. 300K), trade deficit, ISM services an factory orders.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp




About tony caldaro

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155 Responses to Weekend update

    • torehund says:

      Govs have been cocking the inflation books to the bare bone. If it becomes insufficient still to fake non-inflation they will then coerce producers to uphold price stability. But when farmers run red books you open the door to declining amount an quality of goods at offer and development of a black economy. Just ask Venezuela. Point is if you deflate beyond a certain point you get hyperinflation. Hyperinflation and deflation is the same animal with 2 different heads, Merkel, Imf pretend they dont understand..A byproduct is a totalitarian state strong enough to enforce the coercive measures. That why its better to bust at this stage with rates through the roof, than later. I prefer a loaf of bread over the job security of the fat bureaucratic cats. Get them out of here, and Trump is the man.


  1. torehund says:


    Turkish lira playing with point of no return. Monthly top being tested.


  2. hohoho598 says:

    Yeah since we are bearing all, I paid $1.2m in property taxes, I own an engineering firm, I have a construction business, and am a full time trader. Yep lets see who’s cahones’ are bigger than mine!! Get real. As I said the other day, if you see a trade pattern post it otherwise… same ending.


  3. purplember says:

    Asa , $57,000 in property taxes, wth do you live in a mansion ?


    • asaraniti says:

      Were are talking residential …..NO mansion, a nice house.! I lived in Irvington, NY for 22 years. Yes, it’s a nice house. We pay a village tax where we have 23 police officers, 1 patrol man 18 Sargent’s 3 luetinents and 1 captain. BTW, the village is 2 miles by 2 miles with “0” crime. The Village board refuses to turn the police force to the County that would save big $$$$.

      We have 4 small schools for 1700 students but built a 47 million dollar school campus to easily accommodate 2400 students…my school tax is $29,500. Irvington spends over $33,000 per year per student. Yet, the school superintendent refuses to sell 1 of the schools that costs us millions of dollars a year to operate. 91% of our school budget is paid by property taxes. The State and Fed. Gov. pays 9%. There are 6 small villages, each village has their own school superintendent that recessives a $350,000 salary, a BMW car, credit card for gas/tolls, etc. and “X” dollars towards a house….each small Village has their own police force. The police and school systems refuse toi merge with other Villages to save money on economies of scale. Talk about redundancy and inefficiencies. I fought City Hall and wore a bullseye on my back for 22 years…..now you know why I moved!


  4. NEWBIE says:

    JK, you ready for the Halloween Crash tomorrow?


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