Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2575. After a higher open on Monday to a new all-time high of SPX 2578 the market started to pullback. By Wednesday noon the SPX had reached 2544, and then started to rally. Thursday and Friday both had gap up openings and the market made a new all-time high at SPX 2583. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.40%. Economic reports for the week were quite light. On the downtick: consumer sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: Q3 GDP, durable goods and new home sales. A plethora of economic reports next week, highlighted by the FOMC meeting, monthly payrolls, and the ISM’s.

LONG TERM: uptrend

After a one month simple Micro 1 to SPX 2491 by August , we tracked the Nano and Pico waves of a two month Micro 3. That nine wave pattern completed on Monday at SPX 2578. Then after a simple and short Micro 4 by Wednesday, the market rallied to new highs on Friday during Micro 5. While Micros 1 and 3 were quite long in time. We’re not expecting Micro 5 to put on that kind of display. In fact it could end by next week at the OEW 2594 pivot range.

The long term count remains unchanged. A Major wave 1 bull market started at SPX 1810 in February 2016. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Then Intermediate iii started to subdivide. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5 has been underway since then. When Minor 5 concludes it will end Intermediate iii. Then after an Intermediate iv correction, Intermediate v will carry the market to yet again new highs. This bull market has a ways to go in time and price.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

This Minor wave 5 uptrend began way back in April at SPX 2329. It has already risen 254 SPX points, which puts it somewhere in the middle of the three previous uptrends. Those uptrends travelled 301, 202 and 317 points respectively. The count we have been tracking suggests the uptrend is still in Minute iii, with Minute waves iv and v yet to come.

This suggests this Minor 5 uptrend is likely to travel some 300+ points before it concludes. This fits quite well with our upside target to Minor 5 /Int. iii between the OEW 2632 and 2656 pivots. Medium term support is at the 2575 and 2525 pivots, with resistance at the 2594 pivot.

SHORT TERM

The two month Micro 3 count we had been tracking unfolded as follows. Nano 1. 2455, Nano 2. 2428, Nano 3. 2480-2447-2509-2488-2564, Nano 4. 2548, Nano 5. 2578. That concluded on Monday this week. Then after a two-day Micro wave 4 to SPX 2544, the market rallied to new highs on Friday during Micro 5.

When Micro 5 concludes, so does Minute wave iii, then Minute iv should decline about 50 +/- points. Possibly back to the SPX 2540’s again if it tops at the OEW 2594 pivot range. Then after Minute iv concludes Minute v will carry the market to new all-time highs as the Minor wave 5 uptrend continues. Short term support is at the 2575 pivot and SPX 2544, with resistance at the 2594 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly higher on the week and gained 1.0%.

European markets were mixed but gained 0.7%.

The DJ World index was flat, and the NYSE lost 0.5%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 0.1%.

Crude is still in an uptrend and gained 4.0%.

Gold continues to downtrend and lost 0.7%.

The USD remains in an uptrend and gained 1.0%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: personal income/spending at 8:30. Tuesday: Case-Shiller, the Chicago PMI and consumer confidence. Wednesday: the ADP, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, auto sales, and the FOMC statement. Thursday, jobless claims. Friday: monthly payrolls (est. 300K), trade deficit, ISM services an factory orders.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

 

 

About tony caldaro

Investor
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155 Responses to Weekend update

    • torehund says:

      Govs have been cocking the inflation books to the bare bone. If it becomes insufficient still to fake non-inflation they will then coerce producers to uphold price stability. But when farmers run red books you open the door to declining amount an quality of goods at offer and development of a black economy. Just ask Venezuela. Point is if you deflate beyond a certain point you get hyperinflation. Hyperinflation and deflation is the same animal with 2 different heads, Merkel, Imf pretend they dont understand..A byproduct is a totalitarian state strong enough to enforce the coercive measures. That why its better to bust at this stage with rates through the roof, than later. I prefer a loaf of bread over the job security of the fat bureaucratic cats. Get them out of here, and Trump is the man.

  1. torehund says:

    https://imgur.com/a/CdgVS

    Turkish lira playing with point of no return. Monthly top being tested.

  2. hohoho598 says:

    Yeah since we are bearing all, I paid $1.2m in property taxes, I own an engineering firm, I have a construction business, and am a full time trader. Yep lets see who’s cahones’ are bigger than mine!! Get real. As I said the other day, if you see a trade pattern post it otherwise… same ending.

  3. purplember says:

    Asa , $57,000 in property taxes, wth do you live in a mansion ?

    • asaraniti says:

      Were are talking residential …..NO mansion, a nice house.! I lived in Irvington, NY for 22 years. Yes, it’s a nice house. We pay a village tax where we have 23 police officers, 1 patrol man 18 Sargent’s 3 luetinents and 1 captain. BTW, the village is 2 miles by 2 miles with “0” crime. The Village board refuses to turn the police force to the County that would save big $$$$.

      We have 4 small schools for 1700 students but built a 47 million dollar school campus to easily accommodate 2400 students…my school tax is $29,500. Irvington spends over $33,000 per year per student. Yet, the school superintendent refuses to sell 1 of the schools that costs us millions of dollars a year to operate. 91% of our school budget is paid by property taxes. The State and Fed. Gov. pays 9%. There are 6 small villages, each village has their own school superintendent that recessives a $350,000 salary, a BMW car, credit card for gas/tolls, etc. and “X” dollars towards a house….each small Village has their own police force. The police and school systems refuse toi merge with other Villages to save money on economies of scale. Talk about redundancy and inefficiencies. I fought City Hall and wore a bullseye on my back for 22 years…..now you know why I moved!

  4. NEWBIE says:

    JK, you ready for the Halloween Crash tomorrow?

  5. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  6. asaraniti says:

    Tab bill is so easy to amend to get both sides together. Simply keep the Trump plan and make a few adjustments…

    1. Add 1 bracket, 38%, for incomes over 1MM.
    2. Limit deductions for property/state/city income taxes to $20,000
    3. Death tax, first 25MM is tax free adjust for inflation. flat 25% tax rate anything above 25MM with only 2 tax deferrals, 1. if your immediate family works on the farm on a F/T basis with less than 1000 employees and 2. if your family operates a business on a F/T basis with less than 1000 employees.
    4. Keep the 401-K plan.
    5. Get rid of as many tax loop holes as possible, especially on the corporate side.

    This would meet all parties almost half way, penalize liberal states with high social spending programs, reward states that keep their spending under control and motivate liberal states to get their financial house in order.
    When I lived in NYS, our property taxes were rising 5-9% per year!! A few years ago Gov. Cuomo instituted a cap on property taxes. Guess what, property taxes have been capped at 2% per year for about the past 4 years or so. Now why couldn’t our local politicians do that before?

    • phil1247 says:

      asa…….
      .. we dodged a bullet this year with malloy trying to dump 400 million
      of state obligations on the towns .. but bankrupt ct will be trying it again
      and again…….. property taxes will have to go up big…… my house in fla was better than my ct house and tax there was 1800 vs … 6500 here

      • asaraniti says:

        phil..Yes, I heard Malloy wanted to have local cities pickup the retirement benefits for teachers. But just to give you an idea, In Westchester County I paid $57,000 in property taxes! In Stamford, it’s a steal at $25,500

  7. pooch77 says:

    Looks like there serious about reducing 401 contributions as it keeps being brought up.Wil not be $2400 but they may reduce them

  8. travis01 says:

    Run the power hour for a quick vix scalp. Worth 30-50 cents uvxy

  9. asaraniti says:

    Just walked back from an all morning meeting with my construction company. Question, why can’t the EW analysis simply be NANO 1 wave completed on Friday. Today’s activity is NANO wave 2?

    • asaraniti says:

      Should add of micro wave 5 of minute iii

    • stcoleridge says:

      Only answer I can think of to that question is that we haven’t moved down enough yet for the proprietary OEW system to register it as a wave.

      • asaraniti says:

        Stcoleridge
        I’m suggesting the low at 2544 was micro 4. The SPX rallied approx 39 points till Friday,. That was all of NANO wave 1. From that high the SPX is working on NANO wave 2. Using a 50% pullback from the wave 1 rally….I would expect an 19 point pullback. The way the market has been rallying could/should be less than that.

  10. looks like next stop 2600 plus
    2544-2583
    2583-2568
    2568 at least 30 points 26__
    26__ – 25__
    25__ _ 26__ maybe 2620 range before minute 4 down

  11. phil1247 says:

    SPX c wave down swoooooooooooooooooosh on tap

  12. gary61b says:

    Where is Newbie with the C wave down call. Micro 4 might be still be in play with the alternate complex wave.

  13. gary61b says:

    ES, today I see 2569 as the Bull Bear Line or BBL.

  14. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony, Nano 5 from 2548 -> 2478 counts as 1 wave. Micro 5 from 2544 also counts as 1 wave so far. What probability it ended at 2583? What level would confirm? Thx

  15. Tony: Thanks for the comprehensive weekend report. However, I am going to venture the opinion that what was thought to be Micro 4 of Minute 3 could have been Nano 4 of Micro 3 with a Nano 5 peak still ahead and a little ways above 2583. I will explain if anyone is interested.

  16. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Meanwhile in sports,a home run hitting contest was substituted for a real baseball game tonight.”Back back back back,”every 20 seconds was all that was missing.Very exciting no doubt.MLB must have got hold of what Yellen’s been feeding equities for years.The homers were no doubters–all of them.

    • purplember says:

      too long of game. i went to bed. i’m not a huge baseball fan but as a fan i find it very irritating when the coach comes out to talk to the pitcher every 5 minutes. the 3rd or 4th time he did it, i said the heck with this.

  17. mcgcapital says:

    So to summise this weekend.. everyone is either a crash caller or a smug bull. Well in reality neither group are probably right and we’ll have something in the middle. US economy is growing at 3%, so short term there’s no recession yet. No obvious outside catalysts either for a market crash apart from the NK situation. So that’s off the table short term. However, valuations are ridiculous here. Earnings flatlining ve 2-3 years ago following the bounce after the 2015-16 earnings recession. Nearly all the rise is being driven by multiple expansion. People who think winter will never come are just as bad as the crash callers. Look at it and ask yourself is the following healthy: 1) wealth inequality at 100 year highs 2) continued massive monetary stimulus – why hasn’t it been withdrawn? Hint: because they can’t. 3) interest rates at rock bottom still because raising them will topple the debt bubble. 4) low productivity and earnings growth. 5) geopolitics 6) 9 years without a bear market 7) demographics in the western world.

    These things are mostly structurally deflationary. Eventually they will matter and this bull market will end and it will probably be quite nasty. Therefore it’s irresponsible to keep saying it will go up forever when we’re up nearly 50% in 18 months on multiple expansion and inequality widening government policies. If you’re a long term investor it’s probably time to take some chips off the table. If you’re a trader then stay with the trend.. but if moving averages level off and we stop making new highs, be very ready to get out. So the reality is we’re in a bull market but the fundamentals behind it remain shaky so it won’t last

    • mcg voices of reason have little place amidst euphoria

      • tommyboys says:

        No euphoria. You shoulda been around in ’98-’00…

        • Tommy I’ve been in this business over 40 years

          • tommyboys says:

            Then you’ve seen euphoria – thus ain’t it. In ’99 People got angry when you suggested a drop or recession. We were in a new paradigm with the dot coms and a whole bew normal. Nothing was gonna stop it and you were belittled when suggesting so – even at nose bleed valuations and zero earnings. Nothing like today. Everyone is keenly aware of what can happen – and HAS happened – and all while earnings are growing and rates are far lower. Most mgrs today are hedged and paying big premiums for the privilege. A/D had been falling then for almost a year. Today it’s basically at ATHs etc… That was a crisis period. Today is an awakening. Night and day. Time will tell.

    • tommyboys says:

      No recession for a LONG time. Read either Vinik or Fisher article(s) below – easy reads. These guys ain’t dumb.

      • mcgcapital says:

        I respect your view Tommy but it’s just kind of the opposite to what I see long term. These issues need ironing out imho before we can get a true growth phase with strong sustainable growth and rising living standards for the many and not the few. All that being said, bulls under no pressure whatsoever to sell as things stand. It’s more than likely too early.

        This one echoes what I see:
        https://amp.ft.com/content/ebe41536-ba68-11e7-bff8-f9946607a6ba

        • tommyboys says:

          I see this economy raising ALL living standards. We’re in a rare period in history and it’s likely to last longer than many expect. I agree with Vinik that we’re in a similar time to the post railroad period. To each his own…

      • CampFreddie says:

        Agree Tommy, as usual.

    • torehund says:

      Earnings were ridiculous after the crash in 2009, much more so than today. What you are saying is that future expectations of earnings are ridiculous. I do not think so if stagflation is what we are going to experience going forwards. Agree we are at a pivotal point in time, and Europe just cant function with a strong Euro for much longer.

      • fionamargaret says:

        The numbers are still bullish on TLT, Tore…up to over 160…I have TMF. I still think we have not said goodbye to deflation.
        Of course if Taylor gets the nod, I am going to have to rethink….
        UGLD, UWT, TMF, VXX….motley crew…x

        • torehund says:

          Possible Fiona, but there comes a time when deflation (if severe) also destruct supply, like the Butter crisis in France. Have we reached that point ? Another option is for government to coerce prices to stay down by actively regulating the price levels. Then you get Venezuelan circumstances where all of a sudden the production drops radically as cost of producing exceed the price received. Govs have already manipulated the price indices to the max, in order to tell the population there is no inflation (we know there is). Avoiding inflation at all costs and totalitarian methods has to be employed, thats why I hope for rates to go up before society gets destroyed. I prefer my loaf of bread compared to a bureaucrat keeping his/her job any day. Thats my 5 Soles.

  18. Bud Fox says:

    Who, is best person for GLD, or UGLD ???

  19. Don Jenver says:

    Any opinions on the petro yuan?

  20. tommyboys says:

    Legendary Jeff Vinik has been bullish stocks for several years – and is bullish for them for many more…

    https://www.google.com/amp/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/why-jeff-viniks-bullish-on-sports-and-stocks-1509162803

  21. SENTIMENT UPDATE: More Conflicting Indicators Short Term
    http://sentimentsignals.blogspot.com/
    Sorry for delay, won’t let me login w/google.

  22. Thanks Tony for great objective EW analysis and everyone for sharing their comments, thoughts, and analysis.

    My thoughts:

  23. J.Wenger says:

    Thanks Tony. Whenever we get an unwind, it should be spectacular! What will we do with all those BTFD t-shirts?!
    http://www.invest-safely.com/stock-market-outlook-2017-10-29.html

  24. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

    • cj32 says:

      • phil1247 says:

        coolbiz1‏ @coolbizone Oct 24

        Finally EUR/USD correction is over for a Wave (ii) and heading towards targets on the chart.discl: hold longs from near the lows
        >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
        he was looking for wave 3 of 3 UP a few days ago

        counts are useless if you are going to flip flop like this

        • cj32 says:

          On the 26th, EUR breached the level of 1.1669, he adjusted to ALT. bearish count. Price action rules at all times, he adjusts swiftly for his trades Or self initiates a loss.
          You are a newbie to call it a flip-flop….got long ways to learn yet.

          • phil1247 says:

            i had no such flip flop
            was posting ” BRICK wall on EURO” for weeks at 1.188
            by the time he realized what was going on at 1.1669
            my short profits were thru the roof
            whos the newbie ?

            • cj32 says:

              if you say so, good for you stay with your own analysis but don’t make newbie ignorant comments about others. BTW can you post that short that with profit though the roof?

    • mcgcapital says:

      This seems unlikely.. sterling long term trend is now bullish. 50 DMA > 100 DMA > 200 DMA and all are upward sloping. Bank of England raising rates this week too. Once the Brexit premium drops out it should be on its way back to $1.50 but might take a year or two for that

  25. tony caldaro says:

    Facts and Statistics.
    In the past 8o years (1937) the market has been bullish 85% of the time.
    If we consider a crash as a 10% or more decline in one week, during those 80 years, there have been only six: 1937, 1940, 1987, 2000, 2001 and 2008.
    Odds of correctly calling a bear market in any given year are 5-1.
    Odds of correctly calling a crash, in any given year, are 13-1.
    For the doom and gloomers out there, knock yourself out.

    • cj32 says:

      Thx. Tony, well analyzed

    • scottycj1 says:

      One week periods….pretty small sample…….Tell the folks who lost out in the 2008-09 bear market and panicked out near the lows, Many of those who did still mistrust the markets. ………those who rode thru the great depression waited 25 years to get back to the 1929 level. Based on your statement there is no need for this blog or timing…..just buy and hold…….no need to try and time anything.

    • bfquant says:

      I wish we had good data going back hundreds of years. I’ve seen the approximations, but I don’t believe them. Many long term studies that are conditional on very specific circumstances yield sample sizes that are just too small. And we all know this.

    • JK1987 says:

      Tony,
      “In the past 8o years (1937) the market, there have been only six: 1937, 1940, 1987, 2000, 2001 and 2008. a crash as a 10% or more decline in one week.”
      1). first, crash 10% or more in one week. one week is not a correct term. even the quickest 2010 May flash crash took 9 sessions.
      2). 80 years from 1937 simply is not enough, you are missing the most important roaring 20s. try 100 years.
      3). “only six: 1937, 1940, 1987, 2000, 2001 and 2008 crashed 10% or more decline in one week” is not correct. from cycle point of view, you are missing the most important 1929, 1969, 1973 crashes. even in recent history, a smaller scale “correction” during 2010, 2011, 2015 were missing in your statement. i keep on saying 1929’s Black Tuesday, it’s not an understatement. based on my researches, i will not be satisfied if any crashes are not with that kind of extent of scale.
      4). it was my mistake to say 1800 by end of Oct. after review the cycle, i now know the reason why i missed the cycle. but not a matter, the entire formation will easily crashed to 1800 with velocity. never have a single bit of doubt from me.
      5). take inversion view of $spx, what would you do and tell your clients/followers to do at this point? if it were a stock, isn’t 1800 a quite easy done initial target?
      https://gyazo.com/f3d4c2b90491d45ac02cae6f0b9fc0b0
      i am afraid you could be mis-leading lots of your followers to hold/invest/buy at this historical “high plateau” zone. and how could you face them in the future if what i am saying is true. i am posting these for your good with good intention. because i know, what i am seeing is impossible not to happen.

      A). $USD: in this Sep 12, you called USD “now down for the next 10 years”.
      don’t know why did you make the call. but i have done enough analysis, showing $USD is onto the biggest second leg rally, will easily above 120.
      B). treasury bond TLT, on Oct 5, you called “Bonds are in a Secular bear market.”
      don’t know why you made that conclusion.
      but i have done enough analysis, showing treasury bond is going for the biggest rally in a decade. bigger than the rally of 2008 and 2011.
      C). a week ago weekend, Oct 22: you are calling spx target 3000 – 3600 that’s only Major 1.
      in this weekend Oct 28 update, you are calling Minor 5 /Int. iii between the OEW 2632 and 2656 pivots.
      to me, 3000 – 3600 is absolute impossibility.
      even 2632 – 2656, (not much, only 49 points or 1.9% from 2583 high). is not going to happen, or i will be terribly wrong, which, imho, not going to happen. i have at least this much confidence of what i see.

      post #3, done posting of the imposed 3-post limit, so i cannot reply or debate any more for the day.
      cheers!

    • vivelaamo says:

      How did you get 13-1? I would have though crash odds would be much much larger if we have only had 6 weekly crashes of more than 10% in 80 years?

    • tommyboys says:

      Lotta nutters on here. Pick and choose which you read. Tony brings sanity and then it gets twisted and mangled till unrecognizable. Simplest explanation usually right and always go with the odds – ESPECIALLY when they’re heavily stacked in one direction (today that’s long). The rest is gambling. 6 occurances in 80 years is S L I M for sure. That’s ONCE in THIRTEEN years. Good luck timing that. That’s picking the right month in 156 or the right week in 624!!! Good luck!

    • vivelaamo says:

      Ignore my other questions. I see you mean 1 in 13 years after Tommys post. I was thinking more bookmaker odds.

      Either way it’s clear it’s very unlikely and makes you wonder what crash callers are seeing that nobody else is.

  26. naz43 says:

    Today UPDATE NOEW : SPX – DOW – EUROSTOXX50 – DAX – FTSEMIB : https://maxborsa.wordpress.com/

  27. torehund says:

    Concerning oil. Smaller order 2s from bottom. Either it goes into a wave 3 in a squeeze pretty soon or the wave 3 inverts straight down. Same situation applies to the Euro vs USD. Getting very very close to a monumental market move. Could the Canari come from Spain, just read there are 5000 armed police men residing in a cruse ship at the harbor in Barcelona. Spanish/European spring brewing, lets hope not.

  28. fotis2 says:

    Jesse Livermore Quote 10:

    “I trade on my own information and follow my own methods.”

    Thomas F. Woodlock:
    “The principles of successful stock speculation are based on the supposition that people will continue in the future to make the mistakes that they have made in the past.””

    • JK1987 says:

      i also trade on my own information and follow my own methods, what’s so particular about that? who doesn’t?
      Jesse Livermore, so called legendary, greatest trader. i pity on him. as a trader, he maybe is very good on some occasions, but not all the time, otherwise his account won’t get wiped out a few times, and eventually put a bullet on his head. as a human being, he is very poor. possibly has psychological issue, maybe BP. stuck all his whole life in the trading and couldn’t get out, and died for in it.
      i did not trade for about 5 years, this summer, i occasionally saw a long term chart, i realized right away, some biggest thing is brewing in the entire history of the market history. so i decided to do research, prepare for, and get back into the market. to stuck as a slave of trading / market or money is not what i willing to. it won’t take long, max 3 years, then i will be out of the market. second part of my life will contribute to mission. money is just a tool of devil, i will use a few years to take care of it. the biggest treasure is in heaven.
      Matthew 6:19-21
      Do not store up for yourselves treasures on earth, where moths and vermin destroy, and where thieves break in and steal. But store up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where moths and vermin do not destroy, and where thieves do not break in and steal. For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also.

      Woodlock’s quote,
      i told some of my friends, and people i contacted, told them how danger the market is going to be soon, even show my charts to some best friends. they don’t like to listen to this kind of stuff, just treated as a laugh and continue to hold/invest in the market, funds. isn’t that the herd’s trade?
      market just makes new high one after another, corrections will always come back to make new high, same thing has been going on for nearly 9 years. all believe nothing gonna be wrong.
      what’s the current biggest trade against all herds, including mm, fm, analysts, all financial specialist?
      black swan. people say black swan cannot be seen until it shows up.
      not true for me. if one study all past black swan and knowing their pattern and path, certainly it can be predicted! i see the biggest black swan since 2009 is coming. i know, you and people don’t believe this, we will see very soon.
      heard about the biggest bull Irving Fisher? He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had “reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. all his fortune got wiped out. then did his “debt-deflation” analysis, but did not get noticed decades later.
      i say one more time, we are into the biggest debt-deflation that worst than the Great Depression.
      weekly statistics & coming black swan chart.
      https://gyazo.com/6c95c3f0060bf300d2ac61113d5a3270
      https://gyazo.com/07b1cc6e7706ec2dda19cb3a0459e41
      cheers!

      • fotis2 says:

        Ok I get it the Market is gonna crash big and you short,what I don’t get is why keep repeating the same view ad nauseam?It shows little faith in your call.

      • allen kimble says:

        JK-You are an absolute Newbie and Amateur. I’m not being rude or mean when I say this. But there is a time and place for crashes in the markets. They usually come in the first part of the new year and in the fall time(September through October). When They don’t occur during these time frames it’s almost a 100% Guarantee they WILL NOT HAPPEN. Let me repeat myself in simpler terms. The scary fall season for crashes comes to an end this upcoming Tuesday. You have 2 trading days left for your crash call. When it doesn’t come to pass, accept defeat and wait for the new year for a possible crash. In reality though the real crashes only come in the fall times. Please go back throughout history and see my point. Your constant crash calls are really getting annoying.

        Please take this as friendly advice,

        Cheers

    • hohoho598 says:

      We are not trading against people anymore, computers instead. Do they make mistakes?

      • vivelaamo says:

        While it don’t believe for a second we will crash and have heard the same kind of talk since 2011. Wasn’t it the mistake of computers that caused 1987 crash?

        • tommyboys says:

          ’87 rates were high and rising, market had been falling for several months and A/D had been dropping. All that and markets STILL recovered buy end of that year! Whole different ballgame today.

  29. dan pulford says:

    Thanks again Tony, are you thinking the 4th wave of lesser degree to be the next short term pullback?

  30. 123 abc says:

    Tony, whilst the SPX has yet to unravel Minute-iv and Minute-v waves to complete Minor-5 wave, it appears the DOW is imminently set to complete Minor-5 and hence Intermediate-iii wave.

    Are you expecting the DOW to meander sideways whilst the SPX completes Minute-iv and perhaps a weak Minute-v wave, or are you expecting the DOW to further subdivide an already extended Minor-5 wave? Or, are you expecting the DOW to align in another way?

    • tony caldaro says:

      Was looking at that this morning too
      and considered some DOW sideways grind up action, like Friday, is possible

      • aahmichael says:

        Tony, have you considered the possibility that Friday was a B wave? Breadth was negative until later in the day, the McClellan Osc is still well below zero, the equal-weight SPX was down most of the day and closed only slightly above unchanged, the DOW barely budged, and as it stands now, a=c from the 2544 low in SPX. Essentially, Friday’s rally was ‘just’ 5 big tech stocks.

  31. bouraq says:

    Chart of the weekend is #NASDAQ at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  32. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Has the OEW considered Minute i/ii @ 2491 ~ 2417?
    Looking at your weekly chart all 2/4 waves of various degrees have RSI(5) < 50.
    Only speculating, but Minute iii = i @ 2579 (OEW Pivot 2575 & YR3 @ 2577). Looks like a good place for the next wave to terminate and consolidate. Could always continue on to the 1.618 @ 2679 or YR @ 2704. GL All

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/4Dv9oJVs/

  33. vivelaamo says:

    Hi Tony. It is possible micro 4 could have ended on Friday and a gap down Monday could start minute 4?

    It would support a lot of bearish calls on this blog. Scottys square root post was particularly interesting. Do you think there is anything in that?

    Thanks. Enjoy your weekend.

  34. torehund says:

    Much appreciated weekend update Tony. The micro wave is a reversed 5th wave and is just about a third of it is finished. Firs with about 300 points before a major correction. Thereafter aborter wave of equal porportions follows starting with wave one to five.

  35. Kisshu2 says:

    thank you Tony, fantastic weekend weather.

  36. Lars Bech says:

    Hi Tony. Is it correct the first (off 3) target to end this primary 5 in the Dax is 13.288? Before a long bearmarket takes place? Thx

  37. phil1247 says:

    POST of the WEEK

    travis01 says:
    October 27, 2017 at 4:14 pm
    Be a man and just don’t type this shit every day. No one here wants it. Every f’in day you insult multiple people, get called out for it, apologize, then do it again. You are the issue. I’m done with you.

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>..

    vive ………… you really have to stop this stuff ………………… PLEASE !

    • hohoho598 says:

      +1 the guy tries to play the victim game, badly.

      Just like JK’s accusations that he has “paid the price”

      If you see a trading pattern post it, otherwise STFU

      • JK1987 says:

        it’s my fault no matter what happened, no excuse, i deserve the penalty.
        Matthew 5:38-39
        “You have heard that it was said, ‘Eye for eye, and tooth for tooth. But I tell you, do not resist an evil person. If anyone slaps you on the right cheek, turn to them the other cheek also.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Ok ok I get it. Market related posts only. Scouts honour.

  38. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. You have been a massive help to me.

  39. llerias7 says:

    Thank you very much, Mr. Tony, for your wonderfull “roadmap”. Cheers.

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