Thursday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then sharp pullback, DOW +86

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 jobless claims were reported higher, and durable goods orders were reported higher too. The market opened at an all-time high of SPX 2484, then immediately began to pullback. The pullback bottomed at SPX 2479 around 10:30 and the market started to drift up again. The Transports, however, had gapped down at the open and were down about 2%, while all four major indices remained positive. Around 12:30 the Transports broke even lower and the NDX/NAZ started to selloff. The SPX/DOW followed, and the SPX hit 2460 by 1:30. Then the market rebounded for the rest of the day to close at SPX 2475.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.35%. Bonds dropped 8 ticks, Crude rose 35 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +2.8%) at 8:30, then consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened at a new high today, failed to clear the OEW 2479 pivot range, then got caught up in the selling of the Transports. By the end of the day, despite the Transports not rebounding much, the SPX lost only 3 points after being down as much as 18 points. Today’s decline did trigger a quantified wave on both short term counts. But unfortunately the waves are still inconclusive at this time. The very short-term count now has five waves up then a decline to 2460, while the short-term count has three waves up and possibly a 4th to 2460. In other words this uptrend can still go either way: B wave or Minute iii wave. Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day at neutral after getting quite oversold at the lows. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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142 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Jimbo says:

    I don’t feel comfortable being long here and holding over the weekend…Something just doesn’t feel right

  2. pooch77 says:

    Last post maybe the want a run at Dow 22000 before we correct

  3. Embedded SPX and Nasdaq worked today.Gold also,dollar ditto.Have a good weekend all.

  4. pooch77 says:

    So need to adjust,market looking to put in short term low.Next should see us up into midweek.Tricky market

  5. NEWBIE says:

    Look at the volume today, market is weak.

  6. vivelaamo says:

    Guys serious can this be a top with DOWs still making new all time highs? Any examples of this in the past?

    • aahmichael says:

      Do you not have access to historical data and charts? A quick look at a couple of charts would reveal that the various major indexes have frequently made their respective all time highs at major tops at different times. Sometimes, many months apart. I could tell you when these occurred, but you would learn a lot more about the markets if you looked yourself.

      • vivelaamo says:

        I could look it up but it’s quicker to ask a blog full of ‘professional’ traders.

        Can’t actually see any examples of DOW continuing to make all time highs while other markets dropped in recent history.

        Cheers for the reply.

        • vipulm555 says:

          Top is for losers
          Bottom is for losers

          Market is bull market keep buying PB and winning

        • aahmichael says:

          If you ever hope to have a real trading/investment account, and trade/invest real money, then you need to become a serious student of the market and learn the history of the market. That requires a lot more work and study than simply asking inane questions on an internet blog full of anonymous screen names. I realize that you’re a young kid, but that’s no excuse for not taking the time and doing the work required to learn the history of the market.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      vive – how many times will you violate the 3 per day?? I guess until Tony warns you or bans you. You just don’t shut up

      • vivelaamo says:

        Dude look at the forum. If I am the only person that has posted more than 3 time in th last few days then I accept your post. But come on. Why single me out?

        Aahmicheal I post questions on here to try and learn. Is that so wrong?

    • pooch77 says:

      Vive volatility just kicked up this week,prelude to August.I had lot personal business this week so I missed big gains up and down.I had low 24th when high was actually 25th and then high 27,28th well the opposite happened,when your in between trades you can chase and really get burned

  7. phil1247 says:

    SPX closing price today

    2468.32

    you all have until 10 min before the close to make your pick

    have a great weekend everyone !

  8. vipulm555 says:

    Rotations are funny.
    They took some profit in NQ, end of month
    Now new month it will be all up, Dow is already green and high

    Cheers! To dip buyers from yesterday

  9. them Bulls are ornery. No position . should be an interesting close.

    Have a nice weekend all, see ya next week

  10. stockop says:

    oil hitting its downtrend line. i’m expecting some w4 chop before it crosses over it in the next few trading sessions. im out for now

  11. Dow trying to save the markets, If not it could get real ugly real quick

  12. Mr C,couple questions.
    Why is Europe selling off,especially DAX?Rising yields?
    How much of a selloff over there,will finally get our equity market interested in correcting?Any thoughts?Thanks.

  13. phil1247 says:

    /CL

    about to hit 49.60 target ….

    if we can blast thru target
    we should be able to challenge the short entry at 50 .30

    then we want to see the reaction at 50 .30

  14. scottycj1 says:

    all of a sudden everybody wants to ride in Newbies car……..must be getting time to buy again

  15. vipulm555 says:

    Bull markets are for smartz

  16. Page says:

    Bounce will be sold. Selling will intensify in the afternoon and continue into next week.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Page this is the story at every top. Only difference is the bounce never gets sold it just continues. I’d love to know your thoughts on why this time its different to every top this year.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Vive this one does feel a bit different. Everything is moving down together, previous times there’s always been a strong market and a weak market, then the bulls win out. Plus yesterday that was some fairly heavy selling from a starting point of no volatility. Bears definitely in control of price until proven otherwise

        • vivelaamo says:

          Maybe. We’ll see. It’s seems pretty flat today and DOW still strong.Has the selling been impacted by healthcare vote?

          • NEWBIE says:

            Viv, next stop is 2435 but ultimately we are headed to 2400 before any significant bounce.

            • vivelaamo says:

              That would be just over 3% and next buying opportunity of the year. Isn’t going to drop that much overnight.

              • NEWBIE says:

                Viv, you have been conditioned to think the market is unstoppable. I believe you are going to be taught a valuable lesson over the next few days and weeks.

              • vivelaamo says:

                If I had a pound everytime you told me I was going to be taught a valuable lesson I’d have retired by now. Shorting a bull market taught me a valuable lesson in the past.. Good look Newbie. I think you’ll need it if you short at the bottom again.

          • mcgcapital says:

            Yeah looks like the Trump agenda is going to be slow progress so would assume that’s going to be a negative in the short term. The way I see it, the choppy activity began in June and then excellent earnings and dollar weakness pushed us to new highs in the US. Europe doesn’t look good in comparison. It kind of makes sense that once earnings season winds down there aren’t any further short term positive catalysts driving it up. So expect some profits to be taken. But overall, good earnings and GDP isn’t bearish so downside might be quite mild, but still think a move in the order of 3-5% before more buying

  17. allen1929 says:

    Will there be 2483 es print?

  18. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/tosmx/item?id=JOSAQ7&image

    / CL
    bullish above 48.31 extension long support
    target 49.60

    we are approaching short entry
    with cycle top due next week
    when extension fails ..you will know where resistance is

  19. cj32 says:

    cr. CBZ

  20. vivelaamo says:

    2 days to go my friend. You could be on the money with this one.

    vivelaamo on July 17, 2017 at 12:28 pm
    Page if VIX goes above 11 in July or we get more than a 2% pull back in SPX in July I will bow down to the superiority of your Proprietary for as a long I live. If neither of the above happen I will continue to think you are full of **** 😉

  21. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  22. My sense of humor:Zerohedge says Trannies have worst day in weeks.Then this comment…lol.
    Knob Creek Jul 27, 2017 4:06 PM
    I thought trannies worst day was yesterday when Trump said they couldn’t serve in the military……

  23. purplember says:

    only futures but nasdag down 34 pts which has been leading the way up

  24. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Just another FOMC Weekly Pivot Play….

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/6SwvPwhO/

  25. pooch77 says:

    So much for that embedded crap,when markets break they break.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Here is what John Murphy is saying about the market tonight…

      Transports and techs are weighing on stocks.
      Airlines are down 3%. UPS had a very bad chart day.
      Nasdaq 100 is suffering downside reversal on selling of the big tech stocks, including AAPL and GOOGL
      Xilinx is one of the reasons why semis reversed lower….

      I think we all kind of picked that up….

      • pooch77 says:

        Well that’s a no brainer I stated yesterday trend was changing

        • fionamargaret says:

          …even a couple of days…

          • fionamargaret says:

            …but don’t get me wrong, I think we are having a correction..the numbers for my longer term sequence is 2549 for the $SPX and have been that way, like forever. I think my stuff is the same as Tony’s…I just translate it all into sequences. I said on Sunday that oil looked like a short but to be careful, because oil long had an advantage (like in tennis). I still think the Russell is the strongest market, and commodities are a good buy….and I will stick with my saying oil is going to 55…x

        • Not a “no-brainer”, but “no brain”! – I was there, at the “front” (see my contribution below) and saw that techs were the LAST to fall. I don’t believe any of this hype. The Big Boys are obviously behind this drop and the insiders are planning a coup. The report in CBN (by a JP Morgan employee!; see here below: “Fiona”) was obviously just part of their plan to save their shorts and get lower prices for the next rally at the same time. Buying prices ahead!

    • Still bullishly embedded.S&P and Nasdaq.Gold joins in.Dollar still bearishly embedded.Might be it for Nasdaq tomorrow–or not.That’s the point of embedded readings…Nas was down 70+ and came back.That’s the Ira theory anyways.Nas down 60 or 70 tomorrow would kick the correction in gear most likely,though Ira gives it a day to get back above 80 and regain it.Hasn’t broken yet.
      Meanwhile GDX was garbage.No follow through from a nice day on Wednesday.Later all.

  26. Tarun Varma says:

    Tony, what do you mean by “But unfortunately the waves are still inconclusive at this time.” How are they inconclusive if your next statement is there are 5 waves up under the VST count then a decline to 2460 vs 3 waves up under the ST count and possibly a 4th to 2460.

  27. pooch77 says:

    Bulls getting smacked in the mouth tonight… but they tell me it’s a bear trap

  28. vipulm555 says:

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/27/jpmorgan-quant-drops-the-whole-market-with-report-comparing-to-1987.html

    VIX is biggest century joke. Bear news flowing good for long term markets

  29. stormchaser80llc says:

    Today went as expected. A nominal new ATH in SPX. But VIX spiked with yesterday’s heads up as SPX fell below that 2463 yellow line I was eye-balling for a retrace a few days ago. It just came later than I expected. SPX Hourly did not show any positive divergences at today’s lows, so a lower low is more likely than not. That said, unless the bottom falls out here, I expect a more sustained bull run to more profitable new All Time Highs shortly, which will only continue to negatively diverge with indicators on the SPX Daily.

    My proprietary Cumulative Technicals model made another new ATH today, but you’ll see that the Daily values are getting weaker and weaker just like the SPX McClellan. SPX A-D line did not make another new ATH again today. Both of my trading models remaining BULLISH since 7/12/2017. However, there is a clear downturn on the Technicals Model (daily), which continues to negatively diverge with SPX.

    VIX remains on a hourly MACD BUY signal. With no negative divergences at this scale at today’s peak it is more likely than not to continue a bit higher before reversing trend.

    SPX Daily had a string of 7 real and 10 total Hindenburg Omens since late May. Be careful this run-up as it may be the last before a BIG turn lower. I say this as my proprietary Technicals Model made its 8th negative divergence vs. SPX since mid-April, and the first one of its kind since 3 positive divergences since late June. Yet another higher high in SPX is still possible to once again negatively diverge with my model, but you can clearly see that the technical indicators on SPX stocks are weakening quickly.

    Internals, Breadth and Participation have come back to life as one would expect, only well well off their peaks, and are beginning to fall again. Oil is again above its 100 dma and top Bollinger Band, and will need to make new highs to form negative divergences on its technicals.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  30. Thanks Tony. Something like this might be going on: https://invst.ly/4m7sq with an embedded trend line.

  31. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  32. pooch77 says:

    CNBC says AMZN down slightly. Hmmm 3.3% slightly?

  33. vivelaamo says:

    Bear trap 😔

  34. vipulm555 says:

    SP 2500
    NQ 6000
    DOW 22000

    All bullish , smarts 🙂

  35. scottycj1 says:

    76-77 Week cycle…..This was a unique week in that there were two daily cits …I thought the 25th was going to be it but looks like tomorrow ….and tomorrow might just take off without a lower low.

  36. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

    Some nice calls here if you’re willing to wade through the daily grab ass from the Axis of A holes 😛

  37. tommyboys says:

    Thanks Tony. Funderburk & Scottie’s cycle lows today/tomorrow may end up bang on. What cycles are you guys referencing – different or the same?

    • My cycle lows were short term, on Sunday (new moon) and Tuesday. Today was (should have been) a strong rebound, possibly/probably carrying the market over the recent pivot (2479).

      Actually Ndx had broken over recent resistance at the end of trading (overtime) the night before and was carrying on to extend this advance today.

      About 2 p.m. the Spx was showing determination to follow its lead, but absolute determined selling at 2480 by some major actor(s) stopped it in its tracks and finally led to resignation of the buyers. I was in there at that time buying, but saw the “handwriting on the wall” and got out at the last moment with a few cents loss. I suppose (and I have heard/read) that some major actor(s) is/are short. Since they have millions/billions at their command, it was not difficult for them to turn the market around (temporarily).

      The upward bias still exists though and it might need major cycle lows (end of August, middle of September) to do the work and drive the markets higher. LOL

      • BTW… my cycles are not based on any theoretical basis, but were gained over years of empirical studies of my own around 1970-1989 and have held their validity till now. Ultimately they are probably due to objective, recurring factors like OPEX or balance dates (weekly, monthly, quarterly etc.) which have been “written in (the) stone” of habit over many generations.
        Because there are many so cycles, it is easy for anyone to propagate one or the other as being “his/her” (favorite) cycle. But only the totality of the cycles, of course in connection with other indicators, are of any use in predictive work, and that works only in the short term. Since there are so many (other) factors determining the stockmarket, longer term predictions seem to me to be quite speculative. Of course, some of them always work out (there are so many predictions out there some of them have to come true)! Ex post (after the fact) predictions are not so impressive!

      • Actually, the selling I mentioned must have been around 11 o’clock EST, i.e. during futures. The selling was also not unusually strong, because traffic at that time is meager, just constant. Just shows how easy it is to manipulate today’s markets with help of the Internet.

        Thus, as my father used to say, “If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em!” Keep an eye on major sellers as an extremely important factor in today’s markets! Cycles, indicators, Elliott Waves notwithstanding!

      • Interesting “tidbits”:
        Taking the Russell 2000 as a relatively difficult market and applying my best algo in the “Strategy Tester” from January to July of this year, the statistics show that
        – Almost ALL signals (buy or sell) occurred during OFF-HOURS in daily trading. (The chart to the left shows CET, Central European Time, which is most of the year 5 hours later than EST, so you have to subtract 5 hours from the 24 hour scale. Red shows losses, blue winners. Therefore only those listed at 17 and 23 hours on the chart were during regular market hours.)
        That implies that (even) during regular market hours, not the normal market energies, which would/should have triggered signals, but rather EXTRANEOUS factors (3 guesses what those were!) were most effective!
        – The best day to trade was Monday, the worst Thursday-Friday (chart in the center).
        – ALL losses and worst results in general were in March, not May (chart on the right).

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