Friday update

Posted on November 18, 2016 by tony caldaro

SHORT TERM: quiet pullback day, DOW -36

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, but the market opened up one point from yesterday’s SPX 2187 close. In the opening minutes the SPX moved up to 2190, and then began to pullback. The pullback lasted until 11am when the SPX hit 2180. Then the market went into a 5 point trading range for the rest of the day, and ended the week at SPX 2182.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Bonds dropped 19 ticks, Crude rose 35 cents, Gold slid $10, and the USD continued its rally. Medium term support remains at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2270 pivots. This week Q4 GDP was raised to 3.6% v 3.1%, and the WLEI was reported at 56.2% v 56.6%.

The market opened a bit higher today, made a new uptrend high at SPX 2190, then started to pullback. The short term negative divergence kicked in as the RSI dropped below neutral. Now if the negative divergence on the daily RSI kicks in, the market could experience its largest pullback of the uptrend. The largest pullback thus far is 30 points. Some interesting tidbits ahead in the weekend update. Enjoy your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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19 Responses to Friday update

  1. Francesca Ciardi says:
    November 19, 2016 at 3:29 am

    A wave 5 goes all the way on his typical negative divergences. Difficult to call for a top.

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  4. kvilia says:
    November 18, 2016 at 4:16 pm

    Thanks, Tony – have a good weekend.

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  5. Stephen Swanson (@belloswede) says:
    November 18, 2016 at 4:05 pm

    Thanks Tony. Since $NYA refuses to assist, I think the odds are decent we saw minute 1 peak today. Additionally, I say this because if wave 3 (77pts) in the larger count has a role in determining where wave 5 ends , we chewed up almost exactly 50% (38) of the 77 today to reach 2190. It gets better, were 62% of the 77 added to 2152 it would place us exactly at 2200. The fractal or interwoven nature of this beast is amazing.

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  6. Peter Plantagenet says:
    November 18, 2016 at 3:55 pm

    Hi Tony —

    What do you make of the final plunge in ES/NQ/YM today, at options expiration, while VIX was low and falling?

    Cheers,
    Plantagenet

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  7. 123 abc says:
    November 18, 2016 at 3:30 pm

    Thank you Tony et al for a week of great daily OEW updates; really appreciate the intricate wave counts.

    Think that wave-1 completed today; now short at the close with a stop at today’s high.


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