thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down consolidation day, DOW +11

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.6%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 379k v 368k. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1806, bounced to 1808, then declined to 1801 just past 10am. At 10am the Philly FED was reported higher: 7.0 v 6.5, Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.8% v +0.2%, but Existing home sales were lower: 4.90m v 5.12m. The market began to rally. Around 3:30 the market made it back to unchanged at SPX 1811. Then dipped into a SPX 1810 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds lost 21 ticks, Crude gained 65 cents, Gold dropped $28, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots. Tomorrow: Q3 GDP at 8:30 and it’s Options expiration Friday.

The market gapped down at the open today following yesterday’s massive two hour 43 SPX point reversal. After the FED announced ‘measured’ tapering has begun. The pullback found support around SPX 1801 and then rebounded for the rest of the day. It took us a while, last night, to digest the news and update the charts. While there is some debate, in the OEW group, about the most probable count. The DOW suggests Major wave 5 is extending, and that is the count that was posted. More on this, and the ramifications of the FED taper announcement in the weekend update.

Short term support is at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1768, with resistance at SPX 1814 and the 1828 pivot. Short term momentum declined modestly from yesterday’s extreme overbought reading. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1794. Best to your trading the last busy Friday of the year.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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154 Responses to thursday update

  1. The uptrend is weakening. Make money or keep yourself busy playing with the counts everyday.

  2. waddaguess says:

    I see minute 4, minor 1. 1830 target for minor 1, 1815 minor 2. Could extend but needs to check up a little at some point. GL all.

  3. wolf7219 says:

    Consider the following S&P count:
    Intermediar i : 1729 top
    Intermediar ii: 1646 bottom
    Intermediar iii: 1813 top
    Intermediar iv: 1768 bottom
    and now intermediar v. if :
    38.2% int i 39+1768=1807 (161.8: 666-1371 Primar I)
    61.8% int i 63+1768=1831 *
    100% int i 102+1768=1870 (1868 pivot??)
    Mr. Caldaro it is possible?

  4. pbnj123 says:

    Tony quick question – anyway 1813 was minor 3 and 1767 minor 4 and we are now in minor 5 of major 5?

  5. tommyboys says:

    GDP 4.1% today – wow.

  6. Wavegenius 3.1.2 S&P Midday Update Chart: Zigzag and 1.00 breakout = 80% Trade Setup Breakout – Targets (UPDATE)

  7. I wish everbody a happy holdiday season and a profitable New Year. 2014 will be a time for adjustment and accepting. My final take is if the Bears got killed with a taper since that was the bears last chance. I wonder if we will pop on every taper annoucement???

    • Per Hansen says:

      anyone that has a serious answer/guess where we see the bottom in Gold miners? Is it around 18 usd in NUGT for May? and any stocks to recommend and why?

      • torehund says:

        Per, wait until gold reaches 800, and then go big in a company that has good fundamentals like Newmont or Barrick. If and when gold goes down there the juniors will have a very hard time for an extended time even if gold recoups. Its better to be the tiger in the bushes and go big at major bottom. Look at the definitive bear cross on the weekly for gold, fighting it is bound to be costly.

      • torehund says:

        Shelfs or secondaries, downscaling, layoff costs, etc will crush these miners; and it has not even started for real yet ! They weren’t cash positive (most juniors) when prices were considerably higher, now they are all candidates for BK.

    • buddyglove says:

      Thanks truth and the same to you.
      btw, When you stop trying to rationalize every move the mkt makes you will have greater success. GL.

    • budfox9450 says:

      what “bears”…???
      can’t be to many left…

  8. CygnetNoir says:

    Well, SPX has exactly 3 hours left if it is going to reach 1826 in the Fall of 2013 …

    “CygnetNoir says:
    May 22, 2013 at 1:38 pm

    As this pullback is now nearly 15 times larger than the max allowable 2 point pullback on my stairway to heaven 1826 by July opex call, I have believe that we are on an altogether different highway, and 1826 will have to wait until fall.”

  9. Hi Tony!
    Looks like we are heading right into the 5:th extension scenario here.
    I see one last possibility of nearby top, before total market runaway.
    Consider the following Dow count:
    October low end major 4 and major 5 start at 14.719
    Int 1 top 15.721
    Int 2 flat 15.522
    Int 3 top 16.175
    Int 4 zig-zag 15.704 (small overlap with int 1)
    Int 5 now. At least 3 minorwaves can be identified so far.

    Should this count be excluded, because of the small overlap between int 1 and 4?

    Best wishes Sverker

  10. bhtrade says:

    To those in the discussion about black swan: markets don’t crash from new highs, they simply don’t. Markets crash after oversold conditions when everyone has had a chance to short cover and/or get long a nice seemingly “healthy” dip. So if you are concerned, start worrying when oversold gets more oversold and the market refuses to bounce. Which is clearly not now

    • 16golfer says:

      What would you call the May 6, 2010 flash crash when markets fell 10% in 2 hours ? We were at highs then.

      • bhtrade says:

        SPX had closed down 5 of 8 days and lost over 4% from the highs by the close of day prior. Additionally, on the day of said crash, it wasn’t some “event” that caused a huge gap down and crash, it was a day of selling that started out modest then all hell broke loose in an hour’s time. Given that scenario I would not say the market crashed from the highs, it crashed from a >4% dip that looked like a buy.

      • This market WILL CRASH and many greedy pigs will be slaughtered. We don’t need down days ahead of time. I don’t think there will be any warning, I think many will be long and the rug will be pulled. Many feel feds got there back, fed doesn’t care about you..

      • 16golfer says:

        Crashing another 100 points from a 4% correction is not a crash then? Guess I should have said we crashed from close to a near term high.

  11. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony & Happy Holidays to All at the OEW.
    SPY ~ ex-Dividend & Quadruple Witching Day ~ Digesting those options
    GL to all in the New Year.

  12. waddaguess says:

    Should enter 4 of 1 anytime now. 1830-1815-1830+

  13. bobhopium says:

    Thanks Tony and Greetings all.
    My thoughts, which maybe of use to others :-
    No change of opinion from me and I expect the runaway train to continue well into 2014. As the mania phase gets into its stride, “Mom and Pop” will no longer be able to resist participation and I would not be surprised to see 3 or 4 gap up and go days in a row….ES Targeting 1825/26, 1834/35 then 1883/84. I am going with this unless the mkt shows me otherwise…Aimho and Good health and Good Luck to us all.
    Dow fut daily

    S&p fut ES

    • Bob, I hope you are making lots of $, but if you are caught holding long and a black swan comes or Primary 4 begins with a monstrous gap down then what? are you chasing s&p for another 50 points after it has already moved up 400 points on the year? risk vs reward?

      • tommyboys says:

        Ya gotta play the percentages. Of course there is ALWAYS the risk of a black swan – but what ya gonna do – stay in cash forever worrying about one? No way to make money…its “risk” for reward.

      • Monstrous gap down on a black swan event? Really? I dont think anybody is looking for that. No protection buying.

      • thetruthtrader,

        I mentioned possible black swan could derail and trap many bulls, you comment ” I dont think anybody is looking for that. No protection buying. Well, that’s exactly my point no one is buying protection no one thinks its possible. Does anyone really think this ends well? 50 million Americans on food stamps, we are 17 trillion in debt, the federal reserve has to pump 85 billion a month (or now 75) to keep us going. If things were so great we would not need qe for last 5 years. America’s economy is on life support supported by fiat currency and revised numbers (Madoff accounting)

      • I will agree with you that average that most of America is not doing well. Everyday people are struggling for sure. But the stock market is not the economy. . I dont think many can disagree with you about food stamps or how it ends. Ben Bernanke has done his job. Some say he gave bread to people with no teeth. I dont know how it ends or even if it does. How do you get in trouble when you can print your way out of everything.

      • bobhopium says:

        imanw..I appreciate your concern but my risk is well managed and my stops are at b/e a long way below current mkt levels and i trail them up overnight only. As for risk/reward, I believe we are in the final and most profitable mania stage of the current Bull mkt going into spring 2014 but I will monitor and adjust as necessary.
        I have had my quota of posts now, so GL to you.

    • rc1269 says:

      looking at the charts over 30 years or so – this already looks like mania phase. not sure how much more vertical you need to get before it looks mania to you. the train has been running away for a year.
      if you just look at absolute angle of ascent for the SPX, the last 12 months – since the last meaningful dip, in Oct-Nov ’12 – is precisely the same steepness of the final 12 months of the ’99-’00 peak. and it is steeper than the final 12 months of the ’07 peak. so we’ve matched the steepness of the biggest bubble run/top in our generation, and exceeded the last bull top in steepness. what exactly are you looking for before the music stops? just curious

  14. pooch77 says:

    Looking for 115 IWM by EOY,then down 1st week of Jan,bradley turn on 1-1 would fit perfectly.Daily chart not close to topping yet,with xmas next week see a gradual crawl to new highs

  15. hi,dow is confirming till now a flag pattern with the pivot,100% target is ~17400,61,8% is ~16850 that is also the target of the trapped wedge

  16. CygnetNoir says:

    A little New Year lotto ticket is the VMW January 80 puts for 25 pennies … y’all can look at a daily chart and figure out why that’s the case. And by “lotto ticket” I mean a play that could pay off large relative to its cost IF the ticket pays off.

    • 16golfer says:

      OK…I’ll join you….just got filled at .21.

      • CygnetNoir says:

        I’m thinking if I can make this a little 10 banger It will buy me lobster all winter as well as pay my winter league green’s fees. And if it goes to zero, I’ve lost $250 and I’ll still get to eat lobster and play in the winter league … its win/win for me lol🙂

        Since you joined me golfer, I’m hoping this one works well and works quickly … if it doesn’t, blame it on the rain😉

      • 16golfer says:

        Never heard of the company before, but on daily basis from Sept, it is at a triple top and overbought.

    • tommyboys says:

      Risky play as Big Data, Networking and Cloud is the hottest combined space in the market – right where VMW is positioned. Best of luck.

    • torehund says:

      good luck. Go big !

  17. Does anyone see what is happening? SPY is trading huge blocks with big difference in price in less than a second… several of them so far, yes, this is re balancing, it must be.

  18. blubrd67 says:

    Tony or others who want to chime in, any comments where we are with gold with todays action? (about hitting 52 week low)

    • CygnetNoir says:

      I closed my gold shorts this morning and I am a buyer of both gold futures and miners … But I may regret it sooner than I’d like. I am long GCG. If GC closes positive today and in the upper half of its range, it will set up a Big Up. If it sunsequently trades above today’s eventual high, that would trigger the Big Up. First target the mid 1300’s and second target the mid to upper 1400’s. My stop is a close below today’s eventual low (which I hope his the low we see as of right now) though I won’t sit through a $100 sell off before calling it quits.

    • bobhopium says:

      Still still see no evidence of a decent trading low, my chart suggests 1100 on the spot. GL.

  19. Lee says:

    Hey Tony

    Looking at your weather and was wondering if you need help building an Ark ?
    Heading to LA next weekend to hang out and see the Rose Bowl so I’m sure it’ll rain there also.
    See ya next year amigo !

  20. Tony, or anyone who knows, SPY (181.00-181.40) is still in the old range of last week, while SPX is above 1813… is this what they say about re-balancing, what am I missing here?


  21. gary61b says:

    They accomplished pushing up the major 3 indicies now they have to work on the 2k model.

  22. pcskier says:

    $indu is right back at resistance where the algo get sell orders. Call of the day we close flat or right we we ended yesterday with indu. I lost the top calling game with Spx today:(

  23. CN Piker, I am glad the food went down, and it’s time to have some more!

    you have target in mind? 1850s? mine is low 1900s rather fast!

    • CygnetNoir says:

      I think 1826 SPX is more or less a “done deal,” i.e. it is as close to inevitable that we see it trade there +/- a few ticks before any significant pullback has a chance of materializing. Keep in mind that nothing is really “inevitable.” Some events are merely much more likely than to occur than to not occur, but nothing is truly inevitable. That being said, should the inevitable occur and SPX trade 1826, then it becomes a matter of how quickly prices rise, i.e. does this rally become parabolic? If it does, then it becomes largely a matter of guess work, i.e. pick your favorite fib extension and watch what the market does when it gets there.

      For the SPX, a close above 1811 should set the stage for 1826. A close below there and I go on Big Down watch (and by “watch,” I do not mean I go short, I mean I stay long but ready to stop and reverse if a Big Down triggers).

      I also have a liking for 1878.63 SPX

      • 16golfer says:

        Piker/CN…where have you been? Not playing golf in the brutal winter weather are you?

      • CygnetNoir says:

        I’ve not had a club in my hand in weeks😦 – but my winter league starts (indoor simulator) in three. I’ve been around. I lurk. I try to abide by the three post/week rule, but today I am way over my allowance. Sorry Tony!

  24. blackjak100 says:

    My preferred scenario did not materialize. I now have us in minor 3 of int iii so I did go long once 1815 was cleared.

  25. ewtoriginal says:

    The Dec Option exp is a large re balancing trade. If the SPX does not close positive, the year end rally will have occurred in one day; on Wednesday. Then the new year begins and all those juicy long term gain from the Nov 2012 low will be long term gains into 2014

  26. Hallo All,
    Does anyone know what the fact that ES Futures (S&P500 futures), are up at all time highs while the corresponding SPY (S&P500 ETF) is down to yesterday’s low mean?

  27. pcskier says:

    Yellen confirmation vote postpone to Jan, not enough votes. Big news IMHO. black swan if super dove is not confirmed.

  28. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony !

    So now we expect P5 to end around winter/spring 2015 ?

  29. long term reader first time poster…really appreciate the work that is being done here. Been also following Carlos Santos short term for trading…he has been hitting turn points with uncanny precision daily. you can follow him on twitter … @carlosgunx or most recent update….From the morning low, five waves up could be counted with no overlap between waves four and one. Chart shows the count with that probability, that Wave b of Y could have completed very late in the trading day at 1810.88, and the Downward c of Y would be beginning tomorrow.

    .618 support would be near 1787.50…..1.0 at 1772.61…

    Further upside tomorrow taken out 1813.55, would fade this setup to the background and bring forward the old, “Setup #2, Upward Wave 3 Continues”…

    Have a great day…….

    • blackjak100 says:

      I’ve got 3 down from 1811 and 3 up to 1810. Ideal setup would be a small extension of b wave this AM to 1812-1813 followed by c wave down to 1800ish for an expanded flat. If the close today is red near 1800, nice risk/reward long setup for a third of a third next week aka Santa Rally. Cheers!

  30. in my take, presented count on the drawing ( is possible, at least

  31. torehund says:

    EW is pretty spot on but sometimes a RS is what makes a wave and that isn’t doing holders any good, looks good on the charts..but one haas to get out quickly.
    GNK looks like it just might have ended a wave 2, thought initially it might have gone deeper but if DRYs isn’t working on a bear flag, it may already be in wave 3. Difficult decisions.

    • torehund says:

      Bulk may have started a new upturn from here.

    • hkloon says:

      Sorry Torehund, what is RS? Thanks

      • torehund says:

        Reverse splits.
        In the shares I trade they often dips under 1 usd, nasdaq often requires them to go 5 for one or 10 to one to lift them above 1 usd. Sometimes they don’t correct for it on the charts so it looks it went big, but didn’t. This is also a bagger wave but not the ones I like…
        Then it takes time for the broker to give you the new amount of shares and if you sell like 1/5 th of the original shares directly after a reverse split, they mess it up. But normally after a reverse split the stock tumbles 30-60 percent so thats why its important to get out quickly…

  32. $SPY $SPX $TWTR $UVXY $TSLA$NUGT $SPXL, market update and signals for friday:

  33. Anyone fancy a game of snap?

    • attitude928 says:

      I agree…SNAP & CRACKLE…but no POP…

    • 16golfer says:

      Looks ominous Bobby….

    • buddyglove says:

      Sorry..Don’t see any commonality between the 3 charts. 1 and 2 are bearish but 3 is very bullish.

      • Yes, the markets feel bullish as ever. I’m happy to jump on a long and not being contrarian for sport, here’s the setup I see. Look carefully at all three. See how we lose momentum in waves. See how the emas begin to bunch together. See how we make lows and get reaction bounces first off the 10d/20d, then the 50d and lower bollinger band. See how we’re making lower highs. The stochastic set up, negative divergence potential. On the previous two occasions the selling ‘snap’ occurred on a Friday. A strong selling ‘snap’ right through the 10d/20d emas, trend down day, closing below the 10wsma at 1783.53.
        The final thing that i like is the timing. It’s opex Friday. The Friday rip day. It’s the week before xmas and that there won’t be any selling until at least early January, which is really convenient. The NDX chart that I posted on Wednesday evening also looks well setup with a H&S.

    • 16golfer says:

      I like it a lot! Game on bears…..

  34. Tony

    Still say we are in Major 3 of Primary 3, and hence the strength… you know, 3rd of a 3rd and all. Your daily SP 500 chart on your chart posts shows only about a 3 week long Major 4 of Primary 3, which doesnt make a lot of sense if you think about it really.

    So would suggest you keep an open mind that we are only finishing major 3, at 1829 its a fibonacci relationship to Major 1 from bottom of Major 2…. then we see major 4, then Major 5 of Primary 3 to finish perhaps in May 2014?

    Looking for Primary 4 in the spring/summer… then Primary 5 into late 2014 loosely


    • Major 1 1074-1422
      Major 2 1422-1267
      Major 3 1267-1829
      Major 4- 1829-xxxx Do the 23 or 38% fib math
      Major 5- xxxx- new highs…. ends Primary 3 May 2014 roughly

      MAJOR 3:
      1474- 1343- 1687- 1560- and now in 5th wave of Major 3… 1829 is our target since Sept 12th

      Makes sense, so no need to fight it in our opinion….

      Primary 1 was 704 points
      Primary 2 low at 1074
      Primary 3 will be 704 x 1.618 …. from 1074… LOTS HIGHER TO GO!!

      • torehund says:

        if the first part of 3 of 3 is as long as the last part of it with the diamond count pattern in the middle, then 1900 on spx is awaiting. If that long slope is counted as one wave, we still miss two waves or wave 5 subdivided in a double 5. 2150 on six wouldn’t surprise me as the end of wave 3. Nothing has as yet negated such a count.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Some in our group are tracing a similar count too

    • buddyglove says:

      3xEtf, That count certainly resonates with me, TY.

  35. pcskier says:

    George, Permanent open market operation or QE, it when the federal reserve creates money from nowhere and buys UST and mortgage bonds from the primary dealers they place them on their balance sheet. It produces liquidity, for the financial system, emerging markets are dependent on the flow from the fed, cracks will appear with less. Right now global speculator use leverage to long risk, everywhere. That will change, with less flow. As the bubble gets bigger it needs more, like a fire needing more oxygen to grow.

  36. blackjak100 says:

    I’m glad your charts line up with my counts in oil and gold. I’ve stated several times I was short gold until today and now will look to go long in the $1160-$1170 range.

    As far as oil goes, I think a very big drop towards $75 is in the cards early 2014. However, I’m waiting for it to hit $103-$105 before going short with stop at $112.

  37. Thanks Tony for your persistence in analyzing market turns and providing us probabilities.

  38. bouraq says:

    9 charts all for the eyes

    • torehund says:

      Maybe a rally here soon in gold to make another lower high, seems like oil could enter a 3rd wave and they often go together. I would expect some more downside in miners still ,as DUST target is around 58 usd and its now 50.

    • bouraq, Very good analysis using trend lines. You are adding valuable contribution to this blog. I am interested to see your trend lines analysis on FXI and EPI etfs. Thanks in advance.

      • bouraq says:

        Thanks Peter. Those are not my usual hunts but I can check them out for you and post them on Twitter.

  39. mharrison60 says:

    Thanks for all your work each day!

    Does OEW or EWT provide any rules for extensions e.g. could we just top at the 1828 pivot or does it ‘have to’ go much further than this. I am unclear how big a deal the extension could be.

    Thanks again

  40. radrian6 says:

    Hello all,
    The cyclical and fractal nature of the RUT continues. It started with 12-13% rallies, 5-6.5% corrections, and cycle durations of 46-48 bars and now, we’re down to 6% rallies, 4.5% corrections, and cycles of about 22 days. Retail traders have jumped in big time and are now trying to anticipate and front run every move. Each new trading cycle is a clone of the previous cycle but loses some of the strength and/or duration. I assume the shrinking process will continue until the pattern is broken and RUT falls into a correction. As we move forward, the cycle bottom becomes key support — right now, that level is 1099.67. Neckline support for a topping pattern would be near the November cycle bottom of 1079.09.

    The current uptrend is 13 months old and I don’t know how much longer it can last but April seems to be a month that causes the RUT to sputter. If RUT makes it to April 2014 without correcting, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it get whacked at that time. In the short term — assuming the RUT continues higher — keep an eye on the reaction at 1136 and at 1147. Also monitor the potential cup-with handle pattern that is in process — the left rim of the cup is the 1147 peak.

    The chaos around the Fed announcements always amaze me — I feel it’s unfortunate that the markets have acquired a dependency on the Fed and I think gradual tapering is a prudent path to follow. The markets are behaving like a drug addict and the Fed has been doing the pushing — the Fed therefore has a responsibility to rehabilitate the markets. If the Fed withdraws too quickly, the addicted markets might sink into a coma. To me, it’s good to see the Fed take a stand and start backing off the drugs but they need to do it incrementally and monitor the patient very closely.

    • lunker1 says:

      maybe the Fed is just the excuse for the market moves and the real reason the market is going up is bc no one think it should go up., so it’s easier to keep pushing price in that direction. the market doesn’t need to be rational.

    • pcskier says:

      Junkies build tolerance and always need more to get the same high. Look at Japan, built a tolerance already, no longer getting high, needs more stimulus or QE. Here is the USA, maybe we get dope sick. Big hit of pomo today another tomorrow, maybe dope sick next week from fear of less. We need to detox that is for sure, painful, but everything will be real, not dope vision.

    • tommyboys says:

      Nah, its more liken to a patient that required life support 4 years ago that now is requiring less and less assistance as rehab has brought him back from the abyss. The good news is the patient’s prognosis today is much better than a few years ago and he is doing more on his own. Soon he will need no assistance whatsoever. The most have been looking at this backward and have paid the price as a result.

    • torehund says:

      FED is the house and they have but one priority, to wrong foot any player out there. So betting against common sense works well at these EW- junctions.
      The boots runs, and alternately shorts the guts out of every stock out there, at some point enough is enough and they have to cover, thats when one needs to be in these small caps. December is small cap season and maybe santa is coming after-all. Some running of indexes for 2 weeks then sell of in front of earnings, then another rally into the expected Apple and bank earnings, then a correction going into February…

    • pooch77 says:

      R6,hope we get that xmas rally for smallcaps,they lagged the big up yesterday instead of leading and were weak today,i will get nervous if the break under 1120

      • radrian6 says:

        I’m not sure that a break under 1120 would doom the RUT but a break below 1112 would likely open the door to some selling. RUT is only six days into the upward phase of the new cycle — in recent times, these upward phases have been 14 to 15 days. On the other hand, these cycles have been shrinking along with the size of the rallies so RUT may not be able to sustain a three-week advance. If the new cycle holds up, the top should come in the first week of January and the bottom should be in the early part of January expiration week.

    • attitude928 says:

      Looks like the Taper announcement pushed the red reversal schedule up by a day. Tony, I have alot of respect for the great job that you do. I don’t know any EW rules, but it looks to me that today was the start of P4 MAJOR A INTERMEDIATE c down for TNA.

    • pooch77 says:

      Thanks R6,luv your updates

    • ewtoriginal says:

      Good work Radrian. The only place I would disagree is that people declare markets are great and economy has improved and corporations are stuffed with cash, so the Fed should eliminate 100% of purchases tomorrow. Now of course that cant happen because reality would pop its head up and all those boasting about market brilliance in a liquidity fed, er stuffed, bullish run would cry. But what is wrong with letting it stand on its own? Obviously the Fed is scared of the reaction in markets,but most of all long term rates where its holds most of the junk that it bought with “good” dollars printed over the past 5 years.Equity markets top well before the economy looks bad and this one has been suspect for the entire rise.
      I hope we get a burst rally to 1950 SPX and 1200 RUT so I can kill it in the crash later this year, but I dont expect to see either number for a long long time.

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