SHORT TERM: market gaps up, DOW +101
Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. European markets opened higher and gained 1.4%. US index futures were much higher overnight. Last night FED director Vermilyea’s senate testimony was released regarding student loans: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/vermilyea20130625a%20.htm. At 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +3.6% vs +3.5%. At 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: +12.1% vs +10.9%, and FHFA housing prices were higher too: +0.7% vs +1.3%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1583, then continued to 1588 in the opening minutes. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 81.4 vs 76.2, and New home sales were reported higher: 476K vs 454K. The market then pulled back to SPX 1577 by 10:30. The market then started to bounce around. At 11:00 the SPX hit 1588 again, pulled back to 1583 by 11:30, hit 1589 by 12:30, then pulled back to 1583 again by 1:30. After that the market rallied to SPX 1594 by 3:30, then pulled back to end the day at 1588.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.75%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold dropped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support now rises to the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Tomorrow: Q1 GDP at 8:30 (est. +2.4%).
The market gapped up at the open today, exceeded yesterday’s SPX 1586 rebound high, pulled back to 1573, then made a higher high heading into the close. Overall a generally constructive pattern since the recent downtrend low of SPX 1560 was hit yesterday. The market has still not cleared SPX 1600 yet. But it has rallied 34 points from the low. All the counter rallies during Minor waves A and C were limited to 20 – 26 points, so this recnet rally is a positive. Q1 GDP before the open tomorrow.
Short term support rises to the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1593-1599 and the 1614 pivot. Short term momentum is still rising from yesterday’s positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1604. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
Tony, early today, student asked “is it possible for int. V to finish below 1687 since 5th waves often gets truncated?” you replied “only in the SPX, not the DOW”
just want to be completely sure you are expressing a general tendency for the DOW to not have truncated fifth waves not a prediction of no truncated fifth on the Dow in this particular move should it get close to recent highs.
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This truncation nonsense has only occurred in the SPX and only during Primary III.
Probably can thank ES traders for that.
The DOW has not truncated one wave during this entire bull market.
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Tony
Is there a possibility the spx could trucate Int V this time.
Thank you
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in the SPX? yes
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Tony
Good afternoon
Quick question on the BDI – do you have a target for Major 3 (referring to weekly)
Thank you
Cheers
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just joking … actually no
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Haa – love it
Those are big pants – wow
Thanks
Cheers
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Small -DIV on 60 minute 😉
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gt, sure must be. I can tell because my tna is slowing it’s rise and starting to reverse slightly. Thanks for posting that. M
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good eyes, GTO…thanks!
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Wow! Everyone and his step-sista coming out to play in this last hour. GL and profits to All! M
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Wake me up when it’s all over! #knowwhentoholdem
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nice!!..thanks HD.
Great calls in equiteis and bonds…the next supermoon is not untill Aug 2014, btw : )
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check out little HD’s 4#’r http://t.co/B9bVgpYWFt
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nice catch!!..kudos to our little HD!! 🙂
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Nice big fatty you got there HD! M
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kudos
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H D
Thanks for sharing that. #purejoy
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nice! bass love wood. fish the sticks!
I want the purple rope
(or line as those Sanibel guy’s say LOL) 😀
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That’s great HD
You are human! For a while I thought you were a bot, with all those great calls. LOL 😉
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thx, we fought 30 MPH winds, 5 foot seas, a rattle snake tried to get on the boat, swarms of bees & 112* heat but we landed that and 30 others. #fishstories
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LOL.#fishstories…nice !.HD, U forgot to mention that those bees were Africanized bees, right? 😉
Thanks everyone. Great stuff you guys.
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Isn’t there one more super moon this year?
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honestly I haven’t give astro much thought but the moon does seem to have impacts near low. I’m sure there are more qualified astro pepe’s to reply.
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I thought there was only ONE Super Moon per year. Its the moon that’s closest to the earth…could be wrong however.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supermoon
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http://earthsky.org/tonight/is-biggest-and-closest-full-moon-on-june-23-2013-a-supermoon
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A super-duper moon!
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Good to see you back, Steve. Hope you had a nice vacation.
Thanks for the update, Tony.
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I did a small short for the 2 of 5… too many cuts so far… GL
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jb, you’re a big boy and can do what you want, but Big Mama (that’s me) says take care shorting an uptrend. Watch lunks count, go long and MAKE MONEY! M
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Hi big Mama ;), I am long on SSO, but I think tomorrow could give me a better spot to add to long… it’s a small bet anyway… GL M 🙂
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Good to hear, jb. Nothing wrong w/starting small and adding. M
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davidcharrisjr, you out there? You still with us? M
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Yes sir.
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There you are, david! Hope you’re waiting for a place to go long. This should be a pretty decent run over the next month or so. M
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MK, thanks for your help. I wish I had been earlier pulling the trigger but thought we were going lower. How do you think the next few days play out? Again, thank you.
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David, look up at lunkers GENERAL timeframe (not written in stone). You could get in as early as tomorrow. Probably have a good 80 spx points, minimum to go. Keep in mind, we’re guessing, but some of these guys are really, really good guessers. Like I said, I put my money where my mouth is and I’m 100% long, to hold through earnings, until Tony says he thinks int. v coming to an end. You don’t have to place a big position, start small, and see how it works. M
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I am starting to think more and more that the low is in and we’re off to new highs… Attached my interpretation of the counts etc on the NYSE and SPX, which show why I think that: still channel surfing… rebound of the 38.2% retrace (typical for a 4th wave…) A=C relationship.
AND remember QE3 is still pumping…
nyse: http://soulsurferusa.wordpress.com/2013/06/26/nyse-update-06262013/
spx: http://soulsurferusa.wordpress.com/2013/06/26/spx-update-06262013/
click on pictures to enlarge.
ps: especially the NYSE did a nice, classic, stab through the lower trend line and then reversed. Note the yellow line on the SPX is the FIB-level line. NOT a trendline! Also note that Int. Med I on the NYSE is different from that on the SPX.
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soul, all I can tell you is that I put my money where my mouth is, and I’m 100% long now. Trying to find even more funds to long-out! Watching for lunks Minute 4 or Minor 2. M
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i am still hedged with a SDS position as well, at ~1600. Keeping a close eye on it though. My full SSO position is going well, obviously. Not seeing many individual tickers yet that give me a buy-baby-buy signal…which is what concerns me. Maybe that will come when Minor 3 of Int. Med V starts (with a bang?!). And price can still also be forming a triangle… but looking more and more bullish every minute IMHO (makes one wonder why I sold my SSOs from $73 y’day… lol… but profit is profit….)
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exactly mkm! i am honored to be even standing in Tony’s shadow!!!
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you guys are getting good
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thanks Tony! Coming from you, that means a lot to me!
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The Student is only as good as The Teacher. Much thanks, Tony!
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OK here ya go just for fun…..LOL 😀
I think todays low 1595 was Micro 4 of Minute 3 of Minor 1 of Intermediate 5. We’re now in 5 of 3.
Targets:
Minute 3 1610 (where Micro 5 = 1) or 1615 (where Minute 3 = 1.62 Minute 1) if Minute 3 doesnt subdivide
Minute 4 1595/99 (38% of 3 and to the previous 4)
Minor 1 1620/26 (where Minute 5=1)
Minor 2 1590/93 (50% retrace of Minor 1)
Minor 3 1687/1700 (1.62 x Minor 1 (60/66)) if minor 3 doesn’t subdivide
Minor 4 1650/59 (38% of 3)
Intermediate 5 1710/25 (Minor 5 =1)
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lunker, you are The Wizard! Do you have a general time frame for Minute 4 or Minor 2? I need to get as close as I can to those. Just a guess would be helpful. Thanks, M.
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Minute 4 tomorrow
Minor 2 tomorrow-Mon?
of course the fibs are just a guess/placeholder. Minor 2 could retrace 24-89% LOL.
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Thanks lunker. Just trying to approximate some times here. Keep in mind that all I have to work with is a live ticker, a 10-min chart and no indicators whatsoever. Like old time navigation w/compass and watch. M
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I have same thing. V ending in first week of august. I think it tags the top of spx weekly channel again and then that’s it until October. I expect a nasty correction. 12% into October, low 1500 high 1400.
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Atleast bigger picture. I don’t get into the weeds too much on short term. I just look for 3 or 5 wave moves.
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Nice work Lunker
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thanks Tony!
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Lunker, where do you have minute 1&2? I have minute 1@1588 and minute 2@1577 which gives me a 162% extension for minute 3@1622.
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minute 1 at 1586.45
minute 2 at 1573.25
1588 micro 1 of minute 3
1577 micro 2 of minute 3
1604 micro 3 of minute 3 (approx 1.78×1)
1595 micro 4 of minute 3 (approx. 38% retrace of 3)
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nice work Lunker, thanks. I will try the same once w1/C is done:)
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Are you making your projections based upon the length of intermediate 1 or 3? I can perhaps understand if I know the length of the wave you are starting your projections from. Thanks for your patience. I’m early in the learning curve.
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not using Int 1 or 3 for this but you could. problem with that you’ll get a very wide range bc Int 5 could be many different fibs of Int 1 (.5, .62, 1.0, etc) so assuming 1560 is Int 4 I’m starting from 1560 and working my way up. the fibs calcs I use are middle of the road but can and will vary, sometime by quite a bit, but was just throwing the numbers out there to see what others thought…..and we can tweek the count and numbers as we go to make the roadmap hopefully more precise.
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Nice counting L! Haven’t even gone that far; but this appears rather solid IMHO
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thanks much, Cherry Garcia 🙂
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Thanks ALL for the props…peace out LOL
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Tony GM
why did you fix 1614 as the confirmation of the uptrend
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Capi,
Initially 1614, then lowered to 1600.
But no trend confirmation at either level.
Just good technical levels to suggest an uptrend may be underway.
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