SHORT TERM: market gaps up, DOW +101
Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. European markets opened higher and gained 1.4%. US index futures were much higher overnight. Last night FED director Vermilyea’s senate testimony was released regarding student loans: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/vermilyea20130625a%20.htm. At 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +3.6% vs +3.5%. At 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: +12.1% vs +10.9%, and FHFA housing prices were higher too: +0.7% vs +1.3%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1583, then continued to 1588 in the opening minutes. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 81.4 vs 76.2, and New home sales were reported higher: 476K vs 454K. The market then pulled back to SPX 1577 by 10:30. The market then started to bounce around. At 11:00 the SPX hit 1588 again, pulled back to 1583 by 11:30, hit 1589 by 12:30, then pulled back to 1583 again by 1:30. After that the market rallied to SPX 1594 by 3:30, then pulled back to end the day at 1588.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.75%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold dropped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support now rises to the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Tomorrow: Q1 GDP at 8:30 (est. +2.4%).
The market gapped up at the open today, exceeded yesterday’s SPX 1586 rebound high, pulled back to 1573, then made a higher high heading into the close. Overall a generally constructive pattern since the recent downtrend low of SPX 1560 was hit yesterday. The market has still not cleared SPX 1600 yet. But it has rallied 34 points from the low. All the counter rallies during Minor waves A and C were limited to 20 – 26 points, so this recnet rally is a positive. Q1 GDP before the open tomorrow.
Short term support rises to the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1593-1599 and the 1614 pivot. Short term momentum is still rising from yesterday’s positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1604. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market