thursday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW -21

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q4 GDP was reported higher: +0.1% vs -0.1%, and weekly Jobless claims were lower: 344K vs 362K. The market opened unchanged from yesterday’s SPX 1516 close. In the first few minutes it dipped to SPX 1515, bounced to 1521, then headed lower. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 56.8 vs 55.6. The market retested the SPX 1515 low by 11:00 and then started to rally. At 12:30 FED governor Raskin’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/raskin20130228a.htm. The rally continued until 2:30 when the SPX hit 1525, and the DOW came within 50 points of the all time high. After that the market pulled back again. Heading into the close the selling accelerated and the SPX hit 1514 just before closing at 1515.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude slid 85 cents, Gold dropped $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Last night the FED reported New home prices lower: $286.3K vs $301.5K. Tomorrow: Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30; Consumer sentiment, ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10:00; then monthly Auto sales during the day. At 10 PM FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech, at the SF FED, on interest rates.

The market opened flat today, bounced around generating the first pullbacks of this advance, then rallied to a higher high for Minor wave 5 at SPX 1525. After this market rallied 40 points in just two days the largest pullback occurred late in the day 11 points. Quite a strong advance so far, but still 6 points below the SPX 1531 uptrend high.

Thus far this Minor wave 5 looks similar to the Mar12 Minor 5, not the failed Minor 5 of Oct12. The Mar12 Minor 5 rallied about 50 points above the Minor 3 high. This would project a rally to the OEW 1576 pivot. However remaining on the safe side, while keeping the Oct12 Minor 5 failure in mind, any decline to SPX 1500 would suggest the uptrend has probably ended.

Short term support is at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum put in a negative divergence today’s at the high, and ended below neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1512. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp