wednesday update

SHORT TERM: no gap opening but big rally, DOW +175

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported lower: -5.2% vs +4.3%. The market opened 1 point below yesterday’s SPX 1497 close, dipped to 1495, and then started to rally. At 10:00 FED chairman Bernanke presented his report to Congress, and Pending home sales were reported higher: +4.5% vs -4.3%. The rally continued into the afternoon with just two pullbacks of 4 and 3 points. At 3:30 the SPX hit 1520, then pulled back to close at 1516.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.05%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold dropped $16, and the USD was lower. Medium term support jumps to the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP (est. +0.5%), and weekly Jobless claims at 8:30. Then at 9:45 the Chicago PMI, and a speech from FED governor Raskin at 12:30.

The market opened slightly lower today then had its best rally since early January. After the short term trend turned positive yesterday at SPX 1495, the market has continued to rally without even one 5 point pullback. In fact, from the SPX 1485 low the market has rallied 35 points without a 5 point pullback. Quite a powerful surge. Minor wave 4 looks to have bottomed at that low and Minor wave 5 has been underway. Our weekend targets of the 1552 and 1576 pivots remain. But, with Q4 GDP tomorrow and the DOW already at new highs, it may be an uptrend negative if the SPX drops to 1500 again.

Short term support now jumps to the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum has risen from a positive divergence to extremely overbought today. The short term OEW charts turned positive in the morning with the reversal level now around SPX 1509. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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259 Responses to wednesday update

  1. tony caldaro says:

    You all smashed the comments record by at least 60 posts

  2. Lee says:

    and thats all I got to say about that

  3. rc1269 says:

    “when u started a short position at SPX 1000 …1560 just seems right . It would be so embarrassing to get stopped out at a new all time high ”
    bwahahaha nice one Lee. oh man, i got a chortle outta that. redefines pain trade

    on another note – 1523 pitvot tagged and faded. tomorrow might be an important day. good thing we don’t have silly gov’t budget headlines to deal with

  4. Ronin I3 says:
    Surfer Boyee, “choppy markets like these separates the men from the boys.”
    Surfer Boyee, “not liking the market which is not giving any clear signals on which way it wants to go”

  5. mokiepon says:

    Tony reminded me yesterday about the new money that comes in at the end and beginning of each month. Even as tomorrow is the 1st, more so, I think perhaps next Monday also. M

  6. M1 says:

    Do we have 5 waves from 1485 ?

  7. Lee says:

    This is Tonys blog be nice This is Tonys blog be nice..

  8. M1 says:

    I wonder if Robert Pechter is still bearish ?

    • Lee says:

      He is M
      1560 ish stp

    • cwallace90 says:

      Bearish as ever M1.

    • mokiepon says:

      Why would he set a stop as high as 1560? Covering his, I guess. M

      • Lee says:

        when u started a short position at SPX 1000 …1560 just seems right . It would be so embarrassing to get stopped out at a new all time high in nominal terms of course the DJIA priced in Gold is at 2😉

      • mokiepon says:

        uh boy.

        The sad thing is that the people who could have really used the money (retirees, families, WCJoe’s) had the last 4 years to make some righteous bucks, and when they figure this out in the middle of the soon-to-be bear mkt., I hope they’re as mad at themselves as they are Prechter. M

      • Lee says:

        I hear that !
        Tony has been a blessing
        Its 4 years into this liquidity bull market and I’m still confused 1/2 the time🙂
        Retirees are the ones who got absolutely robbed with what happened to fixed income and if they also followed Bobby (I call him that) yikes.

  9. Hi everybody, just a quick note that I am back from a 2 week hiatus (1 week for work, then 1 week for vaca), and have only followed the market and Tony’s updates from the side line, while going long on tuesday at the open. I am sure nobody missed me, lol, but that draw down to 1485 must have sure hurt many bulls and this move up is sure hurting many bears. Ergeo conclusio: nothing has changed. Market as usual!😉

  10. Lee says:

    ominous post count ?

  11. Lee says:

    Hey Bud
    RE: USO via CL
    my S2 today is @ 91.59

    • Lee says:

      S3 = 90.40
      I would think the $100 or bust crowd just went bust.
      Should get interesting as it’s not oversold on my 4hr chart so hence a pos div here ?
      Thank goodness for CL

  12. rc1269 says:

    i wonder what the ratio of human:machine trading volume is these days. i thought i saw something like 85% but that was a couple years ago. can’t imagine it’s lower now

  13. Ronin I3 says:

    #200..Boom! Thanks M!

  14. pooch77 says:

    Go figure M

  15. alexh110 says:

    Is anyone else shorting the DAX here? Looks like an attractive shorting target to me, with negative RSI divergences on daily and weekly charts, and close proximity to a resistance level on weekly MACD.

  16. Lee says:

    Have a great vacation I3
    Catch u guys ltr..

  17. rc1269 says:

    watch out for the 10pt bots today folks. hiding right around the corner

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