SHORT TERM: market gaps down, DOW -101
Overnight the Asian markets lost 2.2%. European markets opened lower and dropped 1.7%. US index futures were significantly lower overnight as well. At the open the market gapped down to SPX 1348 and continued lower. The SPX had closed at 1363 on friday. Nearing 10:00 the SPX hit its low for the day at 1338, with the most oversold hourly RSI reading in quite some time: 3%. Then the market started to rebound. With a couple of 4 point pullbacks along the way the SPX hit 1353 just before the close, and ended the day at 1351.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.15%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dropped $3.50, Gold slid $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX is at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold this AM and bounced. Tonight, a speech from FED governor Raskin at 7 PM. Tomorrow, a speech from FED chairman Bernanke at 8:45, then FHFA housing prices at 10:00.
The market gapped down at the open today for the second day in a row. The decline took the SPX to the upper end of the 1333/1338 support zone. Then with the hourly RSI at 3, extremely oversold, the market started to rebound. The rally lasted throughout the day as the market recouped about half of its losses when hitting SPX 1353 just before the 1351 close. Financials have dropped over 1% for the third day in a row. The Semi’s may have completed their pullback at today’s low. This choppy uptrend continues.
Short term support is at SPX 1342/47, 1333/38 and 1324/27. Overhead resistance is at the 1363, 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum rebounded to near neutral after hitting extremely oversold. The short term OEW charts swung into a negative bias today when the market opened under SPX 1360, and ended that way with the swing level now around 1358. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: choppy uptrend continues
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
Pingback: Latest QQQ ETF News | Wall Street Stocks
the USD — for those of you who are interested
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plus aud, cad, crude oil , SPX and bonds..
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CB, thank you, nice update.
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my pleasure JZQ,… just came across their website today..think they’re based in Slovenia 🙂
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After 5 positive sessions that pushed the DOW up 4% from the July 11th low, last Wednesday Tony upgraded the Dow chart “to reflect a more positive count”. Since that close, the DOW has basically lost all its gains and has almost returned to the July 11th low.
I am just noticing the unfortunate correlation between the “bullish upgrade” and the following market action wondering if Tony’s obvious bullish bias is not interfering with the “objective” part of his analysis.
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Erkall, Am always biased by the wave structure and the technicals.The WROC suggests the chances of this uptrend being a B wave are only 11%.The waves suggest, with that in mind, we could have had a wave 1 off the 1267 low then an irregular wave 2 still in progress…DOW countWe marked the B wave high for the DOW count last friday.Or, a 1-2, i-ii with the second ii beginning to bottom…SPX count.Should know which is which in the next day or so.Noted on friday the ES pit would pressure the market into monday/tuesday.Btw, like the way the SOX is holding up despite the market decline.
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Anyone got any timing on gold going down or up ?
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Gold has become fairly quiet.
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Hi David, This is not the forum to air grievances against anyone.There are proper channels for that.Please do not use this forum for personal issues.
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cyclical low is in October in my opinion, about 13 months following the wave 3 highs of August/September 2011. We had a 34 month rally from 681-1910/23, a 38% retrace is around 1445 and 13 months is AROUND October… I think GOLD will follow the stock market, whatever direction that ends up being… near term/intermediatly
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Hey Dave Banister (I’m told criminals often return to the scene of their crime)!
Tell us about your investment is SA cn Southern Arc. This, according to you, was your second biggest FULL CORE position ever!!!
You paid 1.75C$ a year ago. and continued to buy, buy and buy some more at every point south…
It now trades, when it does that is, at 0.25C$ with volume at a handfull of dollars…
That’s nearly a -90% loss without you ever finding the exit….
Ditto TIC, KLH, BNG, SN, ZNGA…
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David, This is not the proper forum for this.Please email him privately.
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as mentioned on Thursday, S&P was and is due for a trading cyle low within this time frame into July end
At the time, wave structure looked like a completed abc-x-abc. Looks can be deceiving but so far, it has done nothing to help me argue otherwise
So far, it has done as it should have at a cyclical top — it topped at broke down as we thought it might as it entered the timing band for a trading cycle low late last week
The most important question is whether the coming trading cycle low would lead to a continuation of a right-translated intermediate cycle structure or not
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thanks Piazzi
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Piazzi
If its an ABC-X-ABC from 1267, which is what I see… then wouldnt you expect 5 waves down from 1381, and not a 3-5 days pullback and then another rally?
Wouldnt a double zig zag after a 5 wave decline 1422-1267 indicate another 5 waves down?
Or are you talking ABC-x-ABC from 1381?
Not following you
Cheers
D
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first, and abc-x-abc can be followed by an x and then another abc
second, the fact that appears as abc-x-abc does not mean that it is. Appearances can morph into non-apparent realities
third, I did not say that it would take a few days, only that the timing band runs into end of July, cycles can stretch (or contract)
fourth, even if it does end in a few days, can you with any certainty say how many points it drops? can you with any certainty say how deep or shallow a wave C may cut
fifth, even if it is an abc-x-abc followed by a C, it can still due an irregular flat mid 1250
his market.
I am not smart enough to be certain of anything in this market. I just weigh probabilities and bet accordingly. Last week market behaved shaky, it was getting into a timing band for a trading cycle roll over, and there was no money being promised by anyone, and that was the reality pointing to some probabilities and the trade
Now, I have to see how this behaves when it gets a trading cycle low
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question is why should a market go up?
rosy economy?
abundance of liquidity?
optimistic trouble-free world of finance?
excellent double-digit growth prospects across the board?
Excellent fundamentals?
dirt-cheap valuations?
I have no answer but a need for liquidity at this point
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nice work Piazzi. thanks.
Thanks HD.. there seems to be something special about 1330 and you’ve nailed it
Thanks Tony.. nice +div on 60 min you’ve got there.
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Piazzi, just wondering, it sounds like you follow Tim Wood’s cycles work?
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No!
I do my own work
in other words, I pay for my own mistakes 😉
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Piazzi
Thanks for the response
near term I see 4 trading days down and a gap fill on the SPY ETF from July 12th completed today. So we may bounce here abit. All downtrends since early June lows have been limited to 4 trading days
after next 1-2 days that will help with the rest
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5 waves down intraday…?
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Downward C and 3 Targets for S&P
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/07/24/spx-visual-30-day-1-minute-chart-downward-c-and-3-targets/
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Tony, any comments on the USD here?
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EUR getting close to 119 … 2010 low
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i remember from your last FX special report you had a 116 target before a significant bounce. i guess that’s still valid?
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Thank you Tony
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Has anybody heard from David?
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🙂
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HD
U da man… lol
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David, I want you to know that crack kills. If you have a problem you should seek help.
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Here is my updated CRACK chart… same as early June, just updated it for last 6 weeks of action is all
http://chart.ly/qrevpre
See you at the 1074 levels… or maybe 1550-1600 by year end…lol
Only kidding people, lighten up already… its just the market, we can still all go to the beach and grab some sun and beer
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David, it looks like a chart Tony ‘crash’ Cherniawski would post. What’s your line in the sand to abort this forecast? BTW, Steve Vincent at BullBear Trading also forecasting this C wave decline now.
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