SHORT TERM: rally has been quite steady, DOW +73
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and closed +1.60%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. Around 9:00 the FED made this press release: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20110629a.htm. At the open the market moved higher to SPX 1301 and hit the 1303 pivot in the first few minutes. The SPX had closed at 1297 yesterday. After a pullback to SPX 1298 by 10:00 the rally resumed. Also at 10:00 Pending home sales were reported higher: +8.2% vs -11.6%. Around noon, with the SPX trading at 1308, FED governor Raskin’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/raskin20110629a.htm. After hitting SPX 1309 around 1:00 the market pulled back to 1302 by 2:30. After that a bounce higher into a SPX 1307 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds lost 17 ticks, Crude rallied $2.00, Gold added $11.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX moves up to 1303 and then 1291, with resistance at 1313 and then 1363. Short term momentum is just coming off of extremely overbought. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30 then the Chicago PMI around 9:45.
Another good rally today, techs lagged a bit but the financials rose nicely. The OEW 1291 pivot range was cleared at the open. The market then rallied above the 1303 pivot, and is now within the 1313 pivot range. This is exactly what a rally should look like coming off a downtrend low. The SPX count posted on the DOW hourly/daily charts appears to be the working count for the SPX/DOW. The NDX/NAZ, however, both appear to have completed an irregular flat from Feb-Jun, see their weekly charts. It does appear we will now have a split market in regard to the counts for the Techs and the Industrials.
As a reminder, our bellwether index for tracking the US is the DOW. The SPX and NDX are the trading indices. Should we get an uptrend confirmation soon it would be nearly impossible to count the DOW as having completed an irregular flat. The low, thus far, is a good 300 points above the low in March. With the SPX also failing to reach the March low (1258 vs 1249) it would make sense to keep these two indices with the Intermediate wave one and two count, and now entering Intermediate three of Major 3. Meanwhile the NDX/NAZ would be just beginning Major 3.
Should this market clear the 1313 pivot we’ll likely get new uptrend confirmations. For now short term support is at the 1303/1291 pivots, with resistance at the 1313 pivot and then SPX 1345. Remember, the count on the DOW hourly/daily charts is the working count now. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed at SPX 1258
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
GL everyone !
Have a great and safe holiday !
Tony turn the gas off and cook outside this weekend …on the concrete 🙂
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Lee, No gas, no concrete 😉
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Propane and the oil and chip road then perhaps? Electric ? Solar
Are u off the grid ???
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Not yet.Oh I remember now. There is a walkway with concrete that leads from the driveway to the house.That’s the only concrete. Everything else is blacktop, tiled or wood.The house is all electric, so I am kinda forced into charcoal or wood.
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Haaa you had me thinking u were out there “roughing it ” LOL
Ameran must be loving you ?
In my minds eye I can picture ur house and property and I like it 🙂
Let me know when you try squirrel or possum 🙂
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Schnucks and Krogers … have squirrels living in one of the garages, have not seen any opposum yet. Rabbits, turtles, salamanders, frogs, ground hogs and snakes yes. Oh and of course moles, racoons and deer.Fighting Japanese beetles now.
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Schnucks and Krogers ….All u need !
My Mother uses a shop vac on the Japanese Beatles 🙂
If you’re ever in the Kroger’s in Marion on RT 13 someday u might see me getting some garlic Bologna for my Dad. Don’t be a stranger u know what I look like 🙂
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Using Cutter … cheers!
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Tony, such much good protein….all you need is more recipes ;)….and those salamanders could be turned into nice shoes…lol
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oops, so much good protein, that is…
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CB, they are tiny.Shoes for racoons maybe 😉
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LOL …..oh, yes – they would look good in them… 🙂
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Lee, wow, I didn’t notice that nice photo from your trip yesterday – you look great…and so young (about half your age, you lucky kid ! ) Guinness and Ireland are good for you, Lee 🙂 Tony, now you know how to find Lee in aisle 5 over at ur grocery store 🙂
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How’s this for a June Swoon in grains? Not much press about ZW making new year lows go figure. ZC looking at a 99% retrace from year high/low in 1 month not much press either 😛
So ya want to be a grain trader huh ? I actually think it’s a great Idea.
CL hanging around the 23.60% April high /June Low (It’s what I’ve been trading)
ES looks like a cheap short here at SPX 1320 from 1261 pivot now. IMO ( not trading it )
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“cheap short”.. 🙂 thanks! wow that sounds great!…help is on the way, then..
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Hey C B
Are u short C B ?
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yes, sir, since yesterday
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Hey C B
LOL we’ll see..Top picking in this tape can be hazardous to ur health 🙂
I kinda like ZW around here
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well, I am having one helluva a day, Lee …as for terminology ,when I do it it’s called “top picking,” when it’s done properly by a guy like you it’s called fading…same thing …just a different P+L 😉
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but yes, I get the joke, Lee…. a brand new career in cotton-picking seems to be in my future .. 🙂
Tony , are you going to put the word “overbought” in bold letters, today…?
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CB, No, cotton-picking in bold 😉
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Hey C B
IMO You can’t trade equities without having the kind of day ur having. 🙂
I only joke because I’ve been there and certainly will again it’s a certainty.
I’ll always be a trader of some sort but my days doing what I’m doing are short 🙂
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Hey Lee, thanks for being so nice and putting things in perspective 🙂 That’s all it takes sometimes and it really kind of helps. I guess I really like dealing with extremes, which is probably not a good thing when it comes to trading, but I can’t change that…so…….LOL
Have a great Holiday too, Lee!
Tony, OK, why don’t you include the whole thing : “top and bottom pickers will be cotton pickers” -wow, this could be so character-building…
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CB let’s get an uptrend confirmation and everyone will get even.
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Well, DJI hit 12400 ..remember that number ?….that’s exactly where I thoght DJI was heading a few days ago (yes, I dismiss my short term bullish forecast and went short for one day..and it was a lose)…. once again I confirm the market usually follows the same pattern again and again.
now, it all depends what the market does next…
on the bullish case, I think we probably get an uptrend confirmation and we should get a pullback and 1300 should act as support and then resume the rally and brake the 1345 level
on the bearish case, we never brake the 1345 level and we may either consolidate(few more points up or a few more points down) for a few more days and then resume the down trend or we may resume the downtrend right away
Good luck and have a good day
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Hey MGD, thanks! Yes, we so need a pull-back.. 🙂
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on the bullish case, the pullback may come or may not…do you remember the start of major 3 of P1 on july of 2009 ?…. even when I think this time will be different that’s a posibility.. right Tony ?
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MGD,Every time is different until it’s not =)
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thx MGD
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Market now in 1313 pivot,should be hard to cross this.It should consolidate here for further upmove.Upmove from 1258 low might be a 3 wave X wave which might top bellow 1350 level some time in july before another ABC down kicking in to conclude this 4th wave around 1240 level in september.
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Thanks Joy. I need it to go down to 1296 TODAY, please 😉
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I like that black dotted trendline that Ron Walker has there http://screencast.com/t/cicYDCxiXWM
chart from http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1926808&cmd=show%5Bs215254119%5D&disp=O
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Hi everyone, I still believe we deal with a Contracting Triangle from the Feb top in the U.S. stock indices. If correct, we have just ended wave C and we are currently in wave D. That being said, I expect a move twd 1340/50, possibly slightly higher in July followed by another retreat twd 1290 area.
This is my chart from Monday:
Then I allowed for a move down twd 1220 to include the possibility of an Expanding Triangle from Feb top too, but it is clear now the market has not chosen that scenario as it has bottommed right near the 200-day moving average.
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very interesting. Thanks Alex!
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Elliott Wave Forecast For 6.30.11 http://elliottwave.info
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Thanks Tony,
I agree, but I would still leave the chance for this to be a countertrend rally. I guess we should know it in the next few days. If this is the case, I think wave i of wave 3/C should unfold. I see a wave 5 down very unlikely now.
1345 may be the line in the sand for the bears.
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Hi MGD, No uptrend confirmation yet.But rally is doing everything right.
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Tony, we need a day close above 1320 to clear the 1313 pivot, correct ? intradays are not valid ?
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Yes, that would definitely clear the pivot.A print above 1320 would be a good sign.
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Can’t deny the strength of this rally, but I’m having a real hard time accepting that the selling from early May is over. Couple of things are troublesome, 1st is the failure of the SPX/DOW to match their mid-March lows, 2nd is the 3 wave look of the Jun 16 to 22 rally which is a wave 1 if we accept that the bottom is in. But it is what it is, and I learned long ago that the trying to tell the market what it should be doing rather than recognizing what it IS doing is the road to ruin……………….
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Typically a market making a higher low is consider bullish, and should only be troublesome to you if you are short.
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Was short on Monday, got stopped out and went to cash, still in cash and treading water
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