thursday update

SHORT TERM: end of month – end of quarter, DOW +153

Overnight the Asian markets were all higher. Europe opened higher and closed +0.85%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims again were reported flat: 428K vs 429K. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1312. The SPX had closed at 1307 yesterday. After a dip to SPX 1310 the market started to rally again. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 61.1 vs 56.6. At 11:00 the FED released the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20110630a.htm. Then at 12:00 the FED released this:  http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20110630a.htm. Around this time the SPX hit 1321 and then began to pullback. At 3:00 the SPX hit 1317 and then rallied in the last hour of trading. Nearing the close the SPX hit 1322 and closed at 1321.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.30%. Bonds lost 19 ticks, Crude gained 25 cents, Gold retreated $11.00, and the USD was lower. SPX support jumps to 1313 and then 1303, with resistance now at 1361 and then 1372. Short term momentum still in overbought territory. Tomorrow around 10:00, Consumer sentiment, ISM manufacturing and Construction spending. Then in the afternoon Auto sales.

The rally continued today, but this time with a gap up opening – the first one since the rally began on thursday of last week. Quite a good showing coming off an oversold and quite pessimistic low. Around noon today the SPX cleared the 1313 OEW pivot range, pulled back some, and then rallied and closed above it. The close above the 1313 pivot, and the pivot range, is quite positive and exactly what we mentioned was required to get an uptrend going. It certainly looks like the low is in and an uptrend confirmation appears imminent. Short term support is now at the 1313/1303 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1345 then the 1363/1372 pivots. The market remains quite overbought, a sizeable pullback can occur at any time. Remember the DOW has the preferred SPX count. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have ended, low SPX 1258

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

About tony caldaro

Investor
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19 Responses to thursday update

  1. Lee X says:

    1261 pivot held 200 DMA held..I really can’t recall who was bearish here?

    Thanks Tony 🙂

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    • Lee X says:

      pick ur spots and use stops. I’m wrong all the time..since 1990 🙂

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      • Lee X says:

        1 st hour has ended up being the low all this week in ES (not trading it)
        The guys on the floor all 30 – 40 of them have been getting killed with a 1,000 needles all week. U guys tell me how to trade it..Im all ears 🙂

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    • CB says:

      well Lee, you told us the other day to “trade more, and think less,” so I personally have been trading thoughtlessly (for the last two days, only, thank God) 🙂 which took back everything I had made in the previous two days.. and since we are at TL resistance right now I hope to be able minimize my damage next week.

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      • Lee X says:

        Hey C B

        Yes I did when the 1261 pivot held 🙂 And 1240 was being targeted here 😛
        Guys blew out this week trading equities and grains so it could of been worse.
        Man I know how u feel believe me. Ul be fine:)

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    • CB says:

      Thanks Lee. You have our full attention, as always 🙂

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  2. appleal says:

    Tony- Watching the ES this week, I’ve come to a conclusion about future direction: it’s going to go up forever!!
    You see Gold going below the early May lows? Is the 1450 number a fib projection?

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    • tony caldaro says:

      Hi Appleal, The SPX/DOW are in a long term uptrend.They eventually end just like medium term trends.Can’t tell what the actual print low was in May.Stockcharts has messed up the charts.

      Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!

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  3. vishal409 says:

    Tony,Gold is giving away now,if I am interested in building longs,what levels should I be looking at?

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  4. MGD says:

    Thanks Tony, so no uptrend confirmation yet ? …

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