friday update

SHORT TERM: market rebound continues, DOW +39

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and closed +0.80%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was reported positive: +0.4% vs +0.5%, as was Personal spending: +0.4% vs +0.6% , and PCE prices: +0.2% vs +0.1%. The market opened higher at SPX 1329 and rallied to 1333 by 10:00. The market had closed at SPX 1326 yesterday. At 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported higher 74.3 vs 72.4 and Pending home sales were reported lower: -11.6% vs +5.1%. The market dipped to SPX 1328 during the next few minutes, then reversed and continued the rally. At 11:30 the SPX hit 1335 – its highest level of the week. As trading entered the afternoon the rally began to fade. By 3:00 the SPX had hit 1329 and then bounced a bit to close at 1331.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude added 35 cents, Gold rallied $18.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum hit overbought today and then dropped to neutral. Last night the FED reported a new high in the Monetary base, but another low in the M1-multiplier. Today the WLEI slipped again to 55.0% vs 55.3%, but Public sentiment rose to 39.3% vs 37.4%.

The market rallied early in the day to turn positive for the week. But faded in the afternoon to post its fourth consecutive weekly decline. We posted a potential short term count for this unconfirmed downtrend on the DOW hourly chart. The first ABC is from SPX 1371 to 1319 – 52 points. An X wave to SPX 1347 followed. Now the second ABC will equal the first at SPX 1295, or 1347 to 1295 – 52 points. Updating and reviewing all the charts this weekend. Best to you and yours!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely underway from SPX 1371

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987