friday update

SHORT TERM: market rebound continues, DOW +39

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and closed +0.80%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was reported positive: +0.4% vs +0.5%, as was Personal spending: +0.4% vs +0.6% , and PCE prices: +0.2% vs +0.1%. The market opened higher at SPX 1329 and rallied to 1333 by 10:00. The market had closed at SPX 1326 yesterday. At 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported higher 74.3 vs 72.4 and Pending home sales were reported lower: -11.6% vs +5.1%. The market dipped to SPX 1328 during the next few minutes, then reversed and continued the rally. At 11:30 the SPX hit 1335 – its highest level of the week. As trading entered the afternoon the rally began to fade. By 3:00 the SPX had hit 1329 and then bounced a bit to close at 1331.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude added 35 cents, Gold rallied $18.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum hit overbought today and then dropped to neutral. Last night the FED reported a new high in the Monetary base, but another low in the M1-multiplier. Today the WLEI slipped again to 55.0% vs 55.3%, but Public sentiment rose to 39.3% vs 37.4%.

The market rallied early in the day to turn positive for the week. But faded in the afternoon to post its fourth consecutive weekly decline. We posted a potential short term count for this unconfirmed downtrend on the DOW hourly chart. The first ABC is from SPX 1371 to 1319 – 52 points. An X wave to SPX 1347 followed. Now the second ABC will equal the first at SPX 1295, or 1347 to 1295 – 52 points. Updating and reviewing all the charts this weekend. Best to you and yours!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely underway from SPX 1371

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

19 Responses to friday update

  1. rfijoydeep says:

    Correction from 1371,in my opinion is following normal abc correction in 7 waves.It seems that we just completed 6th,c(iv) at 1334,next c(v) will most probably make low at 1303 pivot on tuesday.That will be the low for this correction.c(iii) was 34 points(1346-1312) so c(v) will be less than that.Max. we can go to 1300 (1334-34=1300).


  2. batstrading says:

    Any chance this week’s multiple test of the 1313 pivot marked the bottom? Seems like some of these rallies get going when everyone is expecting another pullback that doesn’t come? SPX at 1331. Would a close above 1346 truncate the wave and tell us the correction is over and 1295 is out of the picture? Thanks! -Bats


  3. laralda says:

    For what it’s worth I arrived at 1272 using my own convoluted analysis Fib and EWI about 3 weeks ago – don’t recall the numbers I plugged in. Seemed plausible when I did my calculations – seems more so today.


  4. MGD says:

    Thanks, Tony.
    just in case…my alt count could still be valid yet….the numbers are almost the same however, w3 of wiii may have ended at 1311.80 and if w4 of wiii is over w5 of wiii could be unfolding ..
    as I mentioned wiii could go as low as 1268… (wi=7.29 points..27.29*2.618=71.45+10%=78.60….and wii at 1346.82..1346.82-78.60=1268.22).
    There is something interesting…if w4 is over at 1334.62… w4=22.82 (1334.62-1311.80) so w5 could be 22.82*2.618=59.74+10%=65.71 …so 1334.62-65.71=1268.90….
    And 1268 once again..
    Have a nice weekend !!


  5. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.
    $NYAD has a +D versus the most recent high @1345-1346…..same thing with the 60 min. MACD lines. I can’t help but think that a re-test of that level is next.


    • CB says:

      or maybe it’s the 1341-42 high….not sure from looking at the daily $NYAD chart (page 6). 1341-42 is probably a safer number. In any case that test would be abv. the daily TL…


  6. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

    X waves though? Yikes ! 🙂


Comments are closed.