SHORT TERM: stock rebound strengthens, DOW +8
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened higher but closed mixed. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported unchanged: +1.8% vs +1.8%, but weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 424K vs 409K. The market opened lower at SPX 1318, but bounced to 1321 in the first few minutes. The market had closed at SPX 1320 yesterday. By 10:00, however, the SPX had dropped to 1314. Another rally attempt fizzled by 10:30 at SPX 1319 and the market retested 1314 again by 11:00. After this the market started to rally. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 1329, then went into a four point trading range for the rest of the day, and closed at 1326.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds gained 20 ticks, Crude lost $1.00, Gold slipped $4.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum touched oversold early and then popped to overbought. Tomorrow, Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30. Then at 10:00, Consumer sentiment and Pending home sales.
Eighty percent of the world stock indices we track are in confirmed downtrends. The three that are not will likely be confirmed shortly. Yes, it does appear the SPX has been in a downtrend since the first trading day in May. It hit the OEW 1372 pivot at SPX 1371 right after the bin Laden has been killed signal/news. When the SPX dropped below the 1344 in the first week of the month, and commodities dropped hard, we turned somewhat cautious short term. And, have remained that way throughout the month.
We are maintaining the current count on the SPX until we do get an OEW downtrend confirmation. Then we plan to update the charts to alternate count #1, posted on the DOW daily chart. More on this in the weekend update. Short term support is at SPX 1323 and then the 1313/1303 pivots. Resistance around SPX 1337 and then the 1363/1372 pivots. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend (unconfirmed) from SPX 1371, has likely been underway
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
NG
just taking names on its slow grind to new all time highs. 😛
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must be that cold weather in the Midwest that’s causing that, Lee. 🙂
Thanks everyone! Have a great weekend all!
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My booger: The MA (89) on the SPX Hourly chart. That has been a booger. It has been a profitable sell for longs. Will it be this time around?
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U know the answer 🙂
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Tell u what..If they wanted to they could jam the new shorts here in ES and trade back up .
1331 b will be mucho stops
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Anyone have a good source or book on the details of MM’s (Market Makers)? Sometimes I feel like buying stock is like placing a bet at Vegas. House always wins! Trick is trying to figure out what side the house is on!
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hey Rookie, a book like that would be nice, wouldn’t it ….but these guys can get wiped out too…we knew a guy who was an options market maker and he actually did get wiped out …so he decided to go to law school after that… & he is OK now …no book so far, I think… 🙂
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That guy should write a book on his experience
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Thx. However, don’t forget I was adding BAC in the low 13’s and high 12’s. I try to sell when I have a huge smile on my face and buy when I have a huge frown. Right now my smile looks like this ~ . GL all and have a great holiday weekend. 1/2 day at work today; BBQ and cold brew tonight! Life is good.
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Just curious – why BAC?. Have a great weekend!
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I enjoy pain :). I like the potential upside if 10.91 holds as Primary II low. Potential upside north of 15.30. Need AG settlement and positive news on dividend.
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I also don’t understand the fear from the pending AG settlement. The negotiation range is set. AG’s want $17B and banks want to pay $5B. What is so scary? The “unknown” is scary, not $17B. BAC has shed $39B in market cap from the Major Wave 1 high at $15.30 (or ~26%). I think that is plenty of downside for a Major Wave 2 low. Let’s start working on that Major Wave 3 high now.
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hmmm….nice, Rookie. You’ve got an interesting bottom break-out going on there. http://screencast.com/t/nUCjUxRl3 Thanks for telling us about this. In a way, what happens here is also the answer to what the market will do next isn’t it?
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ZW set up. Still behaving. http://flic.kr/p/9MtbHG
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No lay up there. that was a double pump above the rim 360 balls in your face slam dunk – and 1
Cya!
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Have a great weekend !
I think u found ur trading buddy in ZW 🙂
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This entire month has been one big chop fest. Should have just taken a 3 week vacation!
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Hey Josh
2010 was a chop fest for me in ES 🙂
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whoops I know ur not Josh..doh
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I see a lay up 🙂
U guys have a great holiday !
Trade more think less 🙂
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Thank Lee, you have a great one as well. 🙂
BTW….like the analogy.
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240 min TL from 1373.50 here at 1334 ish
Hey I asked who was buying at 1313 pivot and only wave rookie did 🙂
Tony are u getting bullish now ? Thanks
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I saw that Lee! Good job wave pro!
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Thank You Josh
Have a great holiday
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Sorry I know ur bullish big picture
Just asking if u think 1313 pivot is the low now for 2 ?
Thanks
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Hey H D
Cmon u had the 5 waves down into 1303 ESM
Ur a wave wrangler !
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Yeah but wave pro is making it look easy. I got all ‘red’ and stupid bearish down there…… oh well.
Have a great 1 amigo….
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1313, 1303 or even 1291 … Feel one of these three will hold. Starting to see some foreign market strength. Getting close, but not yet.
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Thanks Tony !
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Rebound from 1312 also lacking momentum so another low may possible.We have to see the reaction around 1334 area.My thinking is that this (ii)nd wave may find its bottom at 1303-04 on 31st may.
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Elliott Wave Forecast For 5.27.11 http://Elliottwave.info
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Thanks, Tony… I still see the same…my alt count still counts for w4 of wiii ending yesterday..and w5 of wiii unfolding…making some number this wiii could go as low as 1268… wi was 27.29….27.29*2.618=71.45+10%=78.60….wii at 1346.82…1346.82-78.60=1268.22….
yes, the market could go higher and test its 20dma…but we haven’t seen that yet…so tomorrow I may adjust or confirm
Thanks again
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if w4 of wiii is still unfolding my alt count could be adjusted, but a close above 136.36 will invalidate it…this level is w1 of wiii… so I guess this count is at crucial moment…. 20dma is at abt 1338 and traders may want to push the market to this level
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