One of the most impressive stories of the past decade has been India’s rise as an economic power in the global economy. And, this is likely to continue for decades to come. The long term OEW wave pattern for Sensex is a bit offset from the more mature economies of the US, Europe and Japan. It suggests their Supercycle bull market began in 2001, while the older economies are still in their early stages.
The weekly chart displays the liftoff bull market between 2001-2008 quite well. Five Primary waves up into a Cycle wave [1] top in early 2008. Then a Cycle wave [2] bear market into March 2009. After that low the Sensex entered Primary wave I of the Cycle wave [3] bull market. This Cycle wave is likely to last for a few decades, with bull and bear markets along the way.
Currently the Sensex appears to have potentially completed a Minor wave 4 correction. It found support within the band posted, with a positive divergence, and is now trying to rally into a new uptrend. Before this bull market ends it has the potential to hit 34,000.
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
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Dear Caldaro,
excellent analysis !
sensex is in side ways mode with +ve bias since few days.
low of 19075 made on 10/12/2010 should be considered as an invalidation point for this bullish view/ wave count?
Pankaj Shah
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Hi Pankaj, Would tend to agree.
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thanks Tony!
keep updating yr wave count on sensex more frequently!
Pankaj Shah
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Hi Pankaj, Will keep an eye on it.
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Dear Tony,
updates at this juncture will be highly appreciated!
Pankaj Shah
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The BSE uptrend is starting to look corrective. Updated chart.
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Thanks!
Pankaj Shah
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Dear Tony,
we can see positive divergence in rsi 5 in daily chart.should we assume that we have completed minor wave 4 c and we are on minor 5th wave?
Pankaj Shah
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Panka, Possibly. But see one more push down to about 18,600. best regards,
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thanks Tony,
yes, i had expected zone betn 18500-600 bcz its 50% retracement of wave 3 from 15960 to 21109,equality of 4 a and 4 c also comes at 18511, last break out zone from sideways channel was also in this region, 200dma is also at 18684.weekly charts are not showing any technical strength so far. but today we have crossed yesterday’s high decisively and if we close above 19500 zone we can be more comfortable.
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Agree Panka …
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Dear Tony,
we have broken 18047 which was top of first wave of this sub wave 3, broken 200dma/200ema decisively.i think we must see relabelling in wave count.+ve divergence is not supported by price action and new lows are made.
Pankaj Shah
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Hi Panka, Agree! Looks like the alternate count is in play.
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Dear Tony,
thanks for quick reply and change in wave count.
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Dear Tony,
more than 3 months have passed after this detailed analysis by u.
another detailed analysis will be very much useful to yr readers.
Pankaj Shah
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Hi Panka, Continue to track the Sensex, but nothing to report at this time.
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Tony, Thanks. The PIN etf trades thinly but seems to track the performance. It bounced off the 150 dma. Sounds like a good opportunity for those with longer term view.
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Take a look at EPI. cheers!
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thanks, more trading volume and slightly better yield on EPI. Also tracks nicely and is diversified. excellent.
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my pleasure
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