thursday update

SHORT TERM: another bungee cord day, DOW unchanged

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless clams were reported higher: 329k v 304k, and Durable goods orders were higher: +2.6% v +2.2%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1883, ticked up to 1884, and then immediately began to pullback. The SPX had closed had closed at 1875 yesterday. Before 10am the SPX closed the opening gap when hitting 1871, then bounced to 1877 by 10am. Another pullback quickly moved the SPX to 1870. Then after a rally to SPX 1883 by 11:30 the market started to pullback again. At 2pm the SPX hit 1875, bounced to 1880 by 3pm, then dipped to close at 1879.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.75%. Bonds were flat, Crude added 55 cents, Gold rose $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, led by the AAPL related surge in the NDX futures. Then after a few minutes of trading the gap up and surge all dissipated, as the action looked like the recent nearly 10% correction in the NDX/NAZ. Just past 10am the market made its low for the day and then rallied. After a straight up rally from SPX 1816-1885 over the past week, the market has pulled back: 1874-1884-1870. Today’s low should have ended Minor wave 2.

Short term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum went from oversold, to quite overbought, to below neutral today. The short term OEW charts remains positive with the reversal level now SPX 1872. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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wednesday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -13

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher, but lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 1880 close. After a short pop to SPX 1880 in the opening minutes the market pulled back to 1874 by 10am. At 10am New home sales were reported lower: 384k v 440k. The market then rallied back to SPX 1880 just before 11am. After that it started to drift lower. Around 3pm the SPX hit 1875, bounced, and then closed at 1875.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.85%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold dipped $1, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods orders at 8:30.

After a rally from SPX 1816 last week, to 1885 Tuesday, the market had its first notable pullback. This is one of the largest rallies, without a pullback, in quite a long time. As a result of today’s action we placed a Minor wave 1 label on the DOW charts. As for the SPX, it may be a Minute i high, or Minor a. In either of the three scenarios the OEW 1869 pivot range should provide support.

Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold today. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1869. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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tuesday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +65

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.4%. US index futures were flat to higher overnight, and at 9am the FHFA index was reported higher: +0.6% v +0.5%. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1872 close and continued to move higher. At 10am Existing home sales were reported lower: 4.59m v 4.60m. The opening rally continued throughout the day as the SPX rose with only two point pullbacks. By 2pm the market had hit SPX 1885, then it began to pullback. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1880 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude dropped $2.00, Gold slid $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: New home sales at 10am.

The market opened higher today, rallied to SPX 1885 with only 2 point pullbacks, then pulled back into the close. This has been one of the strongest rallies we have seen in a long time: a seventy-one point advance without a notable pullback. Both the SPX and DOW are getting close to confirming new uptrends. With the NDX/NAZ still about 4% below their bull market highs. This would suggest the SPX/DOW are likely tracking the count posted on the DOW charts, and not the diagonal on the SPX charts.

Short term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum blew right through yesterday’s negative divergence, hit extremely overbought today, then declined. The short term OEW carts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1865. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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monday update

SHORT TERM: market drifts higher, DOW +41

Overnight the Asian markets opened gained 0.3%. European markets were closed for an extended holiday. US index futures were higher overnight, but the market opened unchanged at SPX 1865. After a push up to SPX 1871 by 10am, the market started to pullback. At 10am Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.8% v +0.5%. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1863, and then began to drift higher. Around 3pm the SPX hit 1872, and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds gained 1 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold dipped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: the FHFA index at 9am, then Existing home sales at 10am.

Hope everyone had a good holiday. While travelling I had the chance to review the previous SPX/DOW/NAZ bull markets, going back to the early 1980′s, in OEW terms. This was to look for subtle differences between the indices. The review was worthwhile as I uncovered a few new characteristics. As a result I have updated the DOW charts to reflect my findings. This count is now somewhat in alignment with the NAZ/NDX counts: two more uptrends to complete Primary III. We will continue to also monitor the potential diagonal Major 5 count, posted on the SPX charts. One of these two will probably get us to the Primary III high.

During the beginning of the previous uptrend, we were surprised that the SPX was rallying 50 points before having any notable pullbacks. It did this twice, and then the rallies started to shorten. The current rally from last week’s SPX 1816 low is already 56 points, without a notable pullback. Looks like a new uptrend should be underway.

Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1857. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: probably uptrending

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go day, DOW +162

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Housing starts were reported higher: 946k v 907k, Building permits lower: 990k v 1018k, then at 9:15 Industrial production was reported higher: +0.7% v +0.6%. The stock market gapped up at the open to SPX 1856, then pulled back to 1848 by 11am. The SPX had closed at 1843 yesterday. The market then rallied to SPX 1858 by 12:30 as FED chair Yellen was giving her speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140416a.htm.  After a pullback to SPX 1852 by 1pm the market moved higher again. At 2pm the Beige book: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/beigebook201404.htm. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1862 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.30%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude added 15 cents, Gold ticked up $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, the Philly FED at 10am, and it is Options expiration day.

The market gapped up at the open today for the second time this week. But for the first time this week it did not experience a sharp selloff in the NDX/NAZ. Thus far the SPX has retraced about 61.8% of its 1897-1814 downtrend, when reaching 1862 today. Since the wave activity off the SPX 1814 low was quite choppy, it is difficult to determine if this rally is just a B wave in an ongoing downtrend, or the beginning of a new uptrend. Should the SPX close above the 1869 pivot tomorrow then a new uptrend is probably underway.

Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day quite overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1838, with the reversal level now 1843. Best to your trading options expiration and your three day weekend!

NOTE: Will be taking a road trip over the holiday weekend: Friday markets are closed. Will not be available Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday. May be able to do the Thursday update, and Weekend update, but no guarantees. Options expiration this week is Thursday.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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tuesday update

SHORT TERM: another bungee day, DOW +89

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:15 FED chair Yellen’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140415a.htm. At 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: +0.2% v +0.1%, and the NY FED lower: 1.3 v 5.6. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1831 close and continued to rally. Before 10am the SPX hit 1844, and then began to pullback. At 10am the NAHB index was reported unchanged at 47. By 10:30 the SPX turned negative hitting 1827. After a bounce to SPX 1834 just past 10:30, the SPX pulled back to 1824 by 11am, bounced to 1832 by 11:30, and then hit 1816 by 1pm. After this stair step down into yesterday’s low the market started to rally. By 3pm the SPX hit 1841, dipped to 1836 just past 3pm, then rallied to 1844 again just before an 1843 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude lost 50 cents, Gold dropped $23, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts, Building permits and a speech from FED governor Stein at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, a speech from FED chair Yellen at 12:30, then the FED’s Beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday the SPX gapped up from 1816 rallied to 1834, dropped to 1816, then closed at 1831. Today the market rallied to 1844, dropped back to 1816, then rallied back to 1844. While all these wild swings were occurring the NDX/NAX were making lower lows for their downtrend. Over the past few weeks, every rally in the SPX/DOW has ended with selling pressure in the NDX/NAZ.

Since the NDX/NAZ have been leading this market lower during their Int. wave four downtrend we decided to take a closer look at the cash NAZ. This downtrend from 4372 has unfolded in a complex a-b-c: wave a 4132, wave b 4286, and wave c 3946 thus far. Fibonacci relationships suggest the following support levels: @ 3925 c = 1.5 a, and @ 3895 c = 1.62 a. The two previous Int. four downtrends, during this bull market, have corrected 9.7% and 13.0%. This translates into the 3950 and 3805 levels. The 3950 level was actually hit today. Should this fail to hold support, then 3925 or 3895 would be next with a worse case level at 3805.

Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought early, dropped to neutral, then was rising into the close. The short term OEW charts turned positive, negative, and ended positive again, with the reversal level now SPX 1838. We continue to monitor the NDX/NAZ intraday to get an edge short term. Best to your trading!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up then bungee cord afternoon, DOW +146

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. European markets opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Retail sales were reported higher: +1.1% v +0.3%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1828, ticked up to 1829, then began to pullback. The market had closed at SPX 1816 on Friday. At 10am Business inventories were reported higher: +0.4% v +0.4%, the SPX hit 1823 and began to rally. Around noon the SPX hit 1834, but the NDX was already heading lower, and the market began to pullback. Just past 3pm the SPX closed the gap at 1816, then rallied into the close to end the day at 1831.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude slipped 15 cents, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Tomorrow: a speech from FED chair Yellen at 8:15, the CPI and NY FED at 8:30, then the NAHB housing index at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, rallied close to the upper end of the 1828 pivot (1835), like it did on Friday, then pulled back throughout the afternoon until the last hour. The leader on the downside was again the growth NDX/NAZ indices, as the NAZ made a marginal lower low. It appears this market needs to clear the 1828 pivot range, then the 1841 pivot range, which was major support, before it would appear the downtrend has bottomed. A rally in the NDX/NAZ would certainly help. The short term wave structure is quite choppy, but the SPX 1814 area has held support in successive days.

Short term support is at the 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Short term momentum rose above neutral off Friday’s positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1840. Best to your trading!

NOTE: Will be taking a road trip over the holiday weekend: Friday markets are closed. Will not be available Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday. May be able to do the Thursday update, and Weekend update, but no guarantees. Options expiration this week is Thursday.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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