tuesday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +81

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:30 the CPI (+0.1% v +0.3%, Housing starts (1093k v 893k) and Building permits (1052k v 963k) were all reported higher. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1972 close and continued to rally. Nearing 3:30 the SPX hit 1983, then dipped to close at 1982.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dropped 75 cents, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: FOMC minutes at 2pm.

On Friday the market closed just under the 1956 pivot, then gapped over it on Monday. On Monday the market closed just under the 1973 pivot, then opened above it on Tuesday. This is typical market activity, during this bull market, when dealing with overhead resistance pivots. The next important level is not a pivot, but the all time high SPX 1991. Thus far from the SPX 1905 low we have had three rallies: 1905-1945, 1928-1964, and 1942-1983. We have been labeling this advance as Minor 1-2, and Minute i-ii-iii. Notice all three rallies have been about the same size, between 36 and 41 points. Even the two pullbacks (1945-1928 and 1964-1942) have been similar. With this symmetry and an extreme overbought short term reading today a pullback may be next.

Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1991 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1975. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: confirmation highly probable

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 57 Comments

monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go, DOW +176

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1965. The market had closed at SPX 1955 on friday. At 10am the NAHB was reported higher: 55 v 53. The rally continued higher to SPX 1972 by 12:30. A small pullback followed to SPX 1969 by 3:30, then back to the highs to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude dropped $1.45, Gold slipped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI, Housing starts and Building permits all at 8:30.

The market gapped up at the open, rallied to within one point of the OEW 1973 pivot, was quite overbought, and then began to pullback. The rally off friday’s SPX 1942 low has already traversed 30 points in just one day of trading. When the SPX passed 1964 this AM we marked that low Minute wave ii. Minute iii of Minor 3 should be underway. Normal pullbacks at this juncture should be limited to about 10 points. With the NAZ and NDX both in confirmed uptrends it appears it’s just a matter of time before the SPX and DOW confirm as well.

Short term support is at SPX 1964 and the 1956 pivot, with resistance at the 1973 pivot and SPX 1991. Short term momentum hit quite overbought at today’s high. The short term OEW charts remains positive with the reversal level now SPX 1964. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend highly probable

LONG TERM: bul l market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 126 Comments

weekend update

REVIEW

The market opened the week with a gap up to SPX 1945, pulled back to 1928 by tuesday, then gapped up twice more during the week to hit 1964 on friday. Then some geopolitical news spooked the market and it sold off to SPX 1942 before rebounding in the afternoon. For the week the SPX/DOW 0.95%, the NDX/NAZ were +2.40%, and the DJ World index rose 1.65%. On the economic front positive reports were slightly more than negative ones. On the uptick: business inventories, export prices, the PPI, industrial production, capacity utilization and the budget deficit improved. On the downtick: the NY FED, consumer sentiment, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we get the FOMC minutes, reports on Housing, Jackson Hole, Wy., and Leading indicators.

LONG TERM: bull market

The bull market continues to unfold as labeled. A Supercycle wave 2 low in March 2009 at SPX 667, kicked off Cycle wave [1] of Supercycle 3. Cycle wave bull markets unfold in five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II ended in 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since the SPX 1075 low. Primary I divided into five Major waves with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary III has divided into five Major waves as well, but Major waves 3 and 5 are subdividing.

SPXweekly

Major waves 1 and 2 completed in late-2011, and Major waves 3 and 4 completed in early 2014. A subdividing Major wave 5 has been underway since that SPX 1738 low. Currently it looks like Intermediate waves i, ii, iii and iv have completed, and the market is in Int. wave v. When it concludes it should end Major 5, and Primary III as well. Then the market should experience its largest correction since 2011 for Primary wave IV. After that, a Primary V should take the market to new highs again to end the bull market.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

After the Intermediate wave iii uptrend ended at SPX 1991/1985 we counted a complex zigzag down to SPX 1905. This zigzag alternated with the irregular zigzag for Int. wave ii. Both corrections produced similar market loses of 4.4% and 4.3%. At the Int. wave iv downtrend low we had a good oversold condition in the daily MACD, and a positive divergence in the daily RSI. The technical conditions were set for an uptrend to begin, and the market has rallied about 3% off that low.

SPXdaily

Off the SPX 1905 low we had a rally to 1945, a pullback to 1928, a rally to 1965, a pullback to 1942, and now a rally to 1955. We labeled the first rally and pullback as Minor waves 1 and 2. We are expecting this Int. wave v uptrend to unfold in five Minor waves, with a subdividing Minor wave 3. The rally to SPX 1965 on friday we labeled as Minute wave i of Minor 3, and the pullback to 1942, also on friday, could have been all of Minute wave ii. This would suggest the friday afternoon rally to SPX 1955 is the beginning of Minute wave iii.

Usually the daily RSI gets quite overbought during Minor wave 3’s. And thus far the RSI has yet to reach overbought. This suggests the market could be entering the best part of the uptrend. And, the recent uptrend confirmation by the NDX supports that scenario.

We offer one caveat. Should the SPX drop belows 1928 before the uptrend is confirmed the recent advance would be counted as an a-b-c rally to 1965 in an ongoing Int. iv downtrend. Medium term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Short term support is at SPX 1942 and the 1929 pivot, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week above neutral. The short term OEW charts ended postive with the reversal level now 1951.

SPXhourly

As noted above we labeled Minor waves 1 and 2 at SPX 1945 and 1928 respectively. If Minor 3 tops at 1.618 times Minor 1 it should reach SPX 1993. If Minute waves iii, iv and v top at 1.618 times Minute i, should Minute ii hold at 1942, Minor 3 should reach SPX 2000. Right now, the market’s objective is to clear the 1956 pivot range, and then the 1973 pivot range. For the entire uptrend we noted four levels last weekend: SPX 2003, the 2019 pivot range, SPX 2028 and the 2070 pivot range. Just some numbers to keep in mind in the weeks ahead.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were all higher on the week for a net gain of 2.2%.

European markets were also all higher for a net gain of 1.8%.

The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 3.1%.

The DJ World index gained 1.65%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are still uptrending and gained 0.6% on the week.

Crude is still downtrending but only lost 0.1% on the week.

Gold is still uptrending but lost 0.4% on the week.

The USD remains in an uptrend but finished flat.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: the NAHB at 10am. Tuesday: the CPI, Housing starts and Building permits. Wednesday: the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, Existing home sales, the Philly FED and Leading indicators. Friday: a speech from FED chair Yellen at Jackson Hole, Wy. at 10am. Jackson Hole, FOMC minutes, Housing reports, should be an interesting week. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in weekend update | Tagged , , , | 194 Comments

friday update

SHORT TERM: volatile OPEX, DOW -51

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the PPI was reported higher: +0.1% v +0.4%, and the NY FED was reported lower: 14.7 v 25.6. At 9:15 Industrial production was reported inline with expectations: +0.4% v +0.2%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1962, ticked up to 1963, down to 1960, and then hit 1964 by 10:30. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 79.2 v 81.8. After that high, reports came across that the Ukraine has attacked a Russian convoy, and the market sold off. At 11am the SPX hit 1946, rallied to 1955 just past 11am, then dropped to 1942 by noon. Then after a rally to SPX 1951 by 12:30, the market dipped to 1946 by 2pm, then rallied to 1955 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude rallied $1.45, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 53.6% v 53.8%.

The market gapped up for the third day this week, made a new rally high at SPX 1964, then some Ukraine news came in and the volatility of OPEX took over. By time the smoke cleared the SPX had gone from extremely overbought at the highs to oversold at the 1942 low. Quite a swing in 1.5 hours. After that the market worked its way higher for the rest of the day. After the initial break we labeled the SPX 1964 high as Minute i of Minor 3. SPX 1942 may be the Minute ii low. Weekend report should cover it.

Short term support is now at SPX 1942 and the 1929 pivot, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day above neutral. Short term OEW charts swung negative then positive, with the reversal level now at SPX 1951. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 35 Comments

thursday update

SHORT TERM: market drifts higher, DOW +62

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 311k v 289k, and Export (+0.3% v -0.3%) / Import (0.0 v -0.1%) prices were reported flat to higher. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1947 close. It then ticked up to SPX 1951, dipped to 1948 by 10am, and then started to move higher. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1955, dipped about three points, and then closed at 1955.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dropped $2.15, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow, Options expiration: the PPI and NY FED at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15 (est. +0.45%), then Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened a bit higher today, pulled back some, and then hit SPX 1955. The market has now risen 50 points, in five trading days, with just one notable pullback. Either this is a large a-b-c of a count we have not anticipated yet, or the impulse wave of the expected Int. wave v uptrend. We choose the latter. Thus far the market has risen from the SPX 1905 downtrend low in three waves: 1945-1928-1955. We have labeled the first two moves Minor waves 1 and 2. Then a Minor wave 3 underway from the SPX 1928 low. Minor 3 should subdivide into five Minute waves with smaller pullbacks than the one we have observed thus far. The market is again extremely overbought, and at the 1956 pivot. So a pullback can now occur at any time.

Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended extremely overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1948. With Options expiration tomorrow it could be a volatile day. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 146 Comments

wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +91

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight, but at 8:30 Retail sales were reported flat: 0.0% v +0.2%. The market gapped up anyway to SPX 1943 then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 1934 yesterday. At 10am Business inventories were reported higher: +0.4% v +0.5%. The pullback hit SPX 1938 by 10:30 and then the market moved higher. At 11:30, just when Europe was closing, the SPX hit 1948. Then it started drifting lower. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1944, then bounced to 1947 by the close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.10%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude gained 5 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Export/Import prices at 8:30.

The market gapped up at the open for the second time this week. The rally cleared the SPX 1940 level at the open, and we placed a Minor wave 2 label at yesterday’s SPX 1928 low. Minor wave 3 appears to be underway from that level. Today’s SPX 1948 high came within one point of the OEW 1956 pivot range. Which we feel is the market’s next objective. In fact, SPX 1953-1956 looks to be a good range. Thus far, Minor 3 has rallied 20 points without any meaningful pullback. We would expect one when the SPX hits the 1956 pivot range, if not before. Keep an eye on Germany overnight and in the first couple of hours of trading.

Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite overbought today and then dipped some. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1941. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 57 Comments

tuesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -9

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. European market, however, opened lower and lost 0.7%. The US index futures were higher overnight, but lost ground heading into the open. At the open the SPX was four points below yesterday’s 1937 close. Then after a run up to SPX 1940 by 10am the market started to pullback. At 11am the SPX hit 1929, bounced to 1936 by 12:30, then hit 1928 by 2:30. At 2pm the Budget deficit was reported at -$94.6bn v -$97.6bn. A rally into the close stopped at SPX 1935, then the market closed at 1934.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude dropped 75 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: Retail sales at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10am.

Index futures looked like we would have a positive open this morning. But as Europe continued to move lower, futures weakened, and the market opened lower. After an early bounce the market then headed lower again. Stretching this pullback from Minute degree to Minor degree. As this unfolded we posted a Minor wave 1 label at Monday’s SPX 1945 high. Minor wave 2 appears to have been underway. The market then found support right at the OEW 1929 pivot and rallied some. If the SPX can get over 1940 we are probably in the early stages of Minor wave 3. If not, a 50% retracement is at 1925 and 61.8% at 1920.

Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1945 and the 1956 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold. The short term OEW charts swung negative at SPX 1934, but ended positive with a reversal level at 1933. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 109 Comments