Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

August 3 2019

This week SPX stared off down by 14 points within the first hour, then rallied and traded in a narrow range to close Monday just 6 point off last week’s close of 3026.  Tuesday gapped down and declined to 3001, then rallied back to partially fill the gap, but closed down another 10 points to 3010.  Wednesday opened up slightly higher and traded in a narrow range until the Fed announcement to move fed funds lower by 25 basis points.  After the press conference began, the market sold off aggressively to a low of 2958 by 3pm, then rallied and bounced around to finish the day at 2981.  On Thursday, SPX rallied nearly all the way back by noon to pre-Fed levels around 3014, until Tariff Man intervened to announce new tariffs on China.  From there, the market rapidly sold off to end Thursday at 2950, followed by a gap down and further decline on Friday to reach the low of the week at 2914 before noon.  SPX then chopped higher and rallied up to 2944, before settling into the close to finish the week at 2932.  An exciting and volatile week!

For the week, SPX/DOW lost 3.10%/2.60% while NDX/NAZ lost 4.04%/3.92%.

On the economic front, Personal Income and Spending, PCE and Core PCE Price Index, and S&P Case-Shiller Index were all higher.

Next week economic news comes from ISM non-Manufacturing Index, JOLTS, MBA Mortgage Application Index, Crude Oil Inventories and Consumer Credit.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since.  Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend

spxdaily

This week opened down and continued to close down every single day, which generated the largest pullback since Minor wave 2.  The decline was sufficient to confirm a new downtrend.  As a result, our medium term status has been updated, which suggests Minute wave ii is subdividing with an irregular structure.  All four of our key US markets are now in confirmed downtrends, as well most international markets that we track.  We cautioned last week that DOW had not yet confirmed the third wave up, as it peeked in line with our SPX Minute wave i, which turned out to be a good indicator of the pending reversal (see chart below).

djiadaily

We anticipate that a typical decline for this downtrend would be in the 5% range, which suggests there may be more to go.  But 114 points down so far from the irregular top meets minimum requirements for Minute wave ii.   Notice DOW got extremely oversold at the low, the most so since Major wave 2 last December.  We will be watching the short term waves for signs of a bottom in the coming days.  Although we still expect Minor wave 3 to exceed the 3300 level, we will be updating our medium target for Minute wave iii after this downtrend completes.

Medium term, RSI is oversold at the low this week and MACD continues to roll over from a negative cross.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

We updated our short term count to reflect the subdividing Minute wave ii as referenced in the previous section.  This suggests that a complex irregular structure is in play with Micro wave a = 2973, Micro wave b at 3028 and a subdividing Micro wave c in progress with a low of 2914 so far.  As noted last week, the key level of 2976 was broken which triggered the failure of our previous more bullish count.  Now we have Minute wave ii reach within just a point of our 2913 target mentioned in the last couple of reports.  This begs the question of a potential bottom close by and suggests the possibility of at least a meaningful bounce in the near term.  Next target for an extension lower would be the prior small wave at 2875, which is just below our next lower pivot range.

Short term support is at the 2929 and 2884 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2957 pivot and prior support at 2973-2976.  RSI ended the week neutral and has yet to generate a positive divergence off the lows.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 5.54%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 4.04%.

The DJ World index lost 3.07%, and the NYSE lost 2.99%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 1.34%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 0.96%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 2.69%

GBTC is in a downtrend and gained 8.54%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.10%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Sorry for it being late. Been a crazy week!

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 349 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

July 27, 2019

This week opened higher, then quickly reversed to retest Friday’s close and make the low of the week at 2977 before noon on Monday.  From there, SPX rallied Monday afternoon, gapped up on Tuesday and continued to rally through Wednesday to reach another all-time high at 3020 by the close on Wednesday.  Thursday gapped down and declined to reach the low of the day at 2997 by early afternoon, then rallied and traded in a 10 point range to close the day at 3004.  Friday had another gap up and proceeded to test 3020 within the first hour of trading, then continued to extend the rally to a high of 3028, before closing the week at yet another all-time high of 3026.

For the week, SPX/DOW gained 1.65%/0.14% while NDX/NAZ gained 2.32%/2.12%.

On the economic front, New Home Sales and FHFA Housing Price Index were higher, while Existing Home Sales, Mortgage Applications, and Crude Oil Inventories were lower.

Next week economic news comes from Personal Income and Spending, PCE Price Index and S&P Case-Shiller Price Index.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since.  Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

The strong rally this week to new highs was sufficient to qualify last week’s low as a completed wave, which suggests SPX is working on the third wave up of this uptrend.  As noted in last week’s report, the 45 point pullback is smaller than expected, which resulted in much discussion in the OEW group about how to count it.  Nevertheless, our guidelines suggest it meets the criteria for a medium term subdivision, so we’ve updated the count accordingly.  This suggests that we now have Minute waves i and ii complete, with Minute wave iii in progress.  Still a little caution is advised, since DOW is lagging and was unable to make new highs.  This rally needs to sustain through the next pivot or so to further confirm the third wave up.  A reversal and drop below the prior low would suggest something else is in play.  We will be watching the short term waves for any changes.  The first logical target for Minor wave 3 completion remains above the 3300 level.

Medium term, RSI continues to build negative divergence at the high this week and MACD remains in a bearish cross.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

We updated the short term count to our alternate contracting diagonal structure mentioned last week, which gives Minute wave i complete at 3018.  We then have Minute wave ii as a slightly failed flat with Micro wave a = 2973, Micro wave b = 3006 and Micro wave c = 2976.   Minute wave iii has been underway since then with a 52 point rally so far, off a failed double bottom.  Minute wave ii never came close to either of the targets mentioned last week, 2963 or 2913, so risk of a potential failure remains.  Key level to watch for next pullback is 2976.  A drop below that suggests Minute wave ii may be subdividing instead.

Short term support is at the 2995 and 2984 pivots.  Resistance is at the 3033 pivot.  RSI ended the week overbought with a negative divergence.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 0.24%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.55%.

The DJ World index gained 0.73%, and the NYSE gained 0.94%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and lost 0.32%

Crude oil is in an uptrend and gained 0.79%

Gold is in an uptrend and lost 0.52%

GBTC is in an uptrend and lost 5.80%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.96%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 273 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

July 20, 2019

This week opened with a gap up in SPX to 3018, which was the high of the week, but quickly reversed to fill the gap within the first 10 minutes, then proceeded to trade in a narrow range for the rest of the day to close Monday exactly where it left off last week at 3014.  SPX traded down both Tuesday and Wednesday to a low of 2985 by the close on Wednesday.  Thursday saw a gap down at the open, rally back to fill the gap, followed by another decline to make the low of the week at 2973 by noon.  From there, the market had a strong rally to end Thursday up 10 points on the day at 2995.   Friday had another gap up to a high 3006 within the first 10 minutes of trading, then proceeded to decline for the rest of the day to close the week just off the low at 2977.

For the week, SPX/DOW lost 1.23%/0.65% while NDX/NAZ lost 1.36%/1.18%.

On the economic front, Empire State Manufacturing and Retail Sales (including ex-Autos) were higher, while Import and Export Prices were both lower.

Next week economic news comes from FHFA Housing Price Index, Existing and New Home Sales, MBA Mortgage Applications and Crude Oil Inventories.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since.  Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

SPX was able to briefly extend the rally this week to an intraday high of 3018, but could not hold it beyond Monday’s open and then proceeded to decline to a low of 2973 on Thursday.  Although the pullback so far is a modest 45 points, it was sufficient to signal the first subdivision of this uptrend.  As a result, we have updated our medium term count to show a completed Minute wave i of Minor wave 3.  Normally we would expect Minute wave ii to be a larger decline, so we are anticipating that this wave has more to go.  The notional size for this decline would be about 80-100 points, however this uptrend has been resistant to pullbacks, so Minute wave ii could end at any time.  We will be watching the short term waves for possible Minute wave ii extensions.  The first logical target for Minor wave 3 completion remains at the 3300 level.

Medium term, the RSI set up a multiple negative divergence at the high and the MACD exhibited the first bearish cross of this uptrend.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

Using our short term techniques, we continue to count Minute wave i as five Micro waves up from the Minor wave 2 low [2729]> 2911> 2875> 2964> 2913> 2996.  This suggests Minute wave ii has been underway ever since and is subdividing into a complex irregular three pattern with Micro wave a = 2963, Micro wave b = 3018, and Micro wave c ongoing with possible subdivision.  We labelled the first Micro wave c subdivision as small “a” wave down at 2973 and waiting now on further price action.  Although the irregular b wave rally exceeded our target of 3016 mentioned last week, it was too small and too brief to invalidate that pattern.   Our alternate count suggests Minute wave i ended at 3018 as a contracting diagonal triangle.  Either way, we believe the inflection point has been resolved and Minute wave ii is in progress with further downside likely.  Logical target for completion of Minute wave ii would be the prior Micro wave 4 low at 2913, however there’s still support nearby at the Micro wave a low of 2963.

Short term support is at the 2957 and 2929 pivots.  Resistance is at 2984 and 2995 pivots.  Short term RSI ended the week oversold.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 0.42%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 1.04%.

The DJ World index lost 0.71%, and the NYSE lost 0.93%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.45%

Crude oil is in an uptrend and lost 7.39%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 1.03%

GBTC is in an uptrend and lost 9.88%.

The USD is in a downtrend and gained 0.41%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

 

Posted in Updates | 105 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

July 13, 2019

This week started off with gaps down both Monday and Tuesday, which hit the low of the week at SPX 2963 within the first hour of trading Tuesday morning.  SPX closed last week at 2991.  From there, the market rallied for the rest of the week, seeming fueled by Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony of a “very likely” rate cut next month.  Wednesday began with a gap up and rally to 3003 within the first hour, then pulled back and traded in a range the rest of the day to close at 2993.  Thursday had another small gap up to 3002, then traded in a range and closed at an all-time high of 3000.  Friday had another small gap up and then proceeded to rally all day to close on the high of the week at 3014.

For the week, SPX/DOW gained 0.78%/1.52% while NDX/NAZ gained 1.30%/1.01%.

On the economic front, Consumer Credit increased.  The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, JOLTS and MBA Mortgage Application Index all declined, while Wholesale Inventories increased.

Next week economic news comes from Empire State Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Import Prices and Export Prices.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since.  Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

Not much has changed this week as the uptrend continues to extend reaching all-time highs now at 3014.  The small pullback early in the week was insufficient to trigger any medium term subdivision, so we continue to count this rally as Minute wave i of Minor wave 3, which has been in progress since the Minor wave 2 low at 2729 on June 3rd.  This wave has now achieved 285 points in 28 trading days and has become the longest such rally of our Primary wave III bull market since the exponential rise from Dec 2017 to the Intermediate wave iii top in January 2018. We’re still cautious that a more significant pullback could occur at any time, but the market keeps pushing through our short term targets and pivots.  The first logical target for Minor wave 3 completion remains at 3300.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

Using our short term tracking, we can now count seven waves up from the Minor wave 2 low [2729]> 2911> 2875> 2964> 2913> 2996> 2963> 3014, which sets a short term inflection point.  The 33 point pullback to Tuesday’s low at 2963 completed the impulsive pattern of five Micro waves as previously reported.  However, the subsequent rally beyond our 3002 target to new highs created an ambiguity.  We can’t yet rule out the possibility of an irregular Minute wave i top.  After much discussion within the OEW group, we decided to track the irregular scenario till the market dictates otherwise.  This suggests Micro wave 5 completed at 2996 and Minute wave ii is subdividing into three waves, Micro wave a = 2963, Micro wave b = 3014 so far, with Micro wave c to follow.  Above 3016, Micro wave b would be greater than 1.618x Micro wave a, which exceeds our limit for this count and suggests something else may be in play.  We have a couple of alternative counts under consideration and will report on those when the time comes.  Friday’s close got within 2 points of our limit, while sitting at another short term divergence at the high.

Short term support is at the 2995 and 2984 pivots.  Resistance is at the 3033 pivot.  Short and medium term RSI both have negative divergences.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 0.72%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 0.60%.

The DJ World index gained 0.16%, and the NYSE gained 0.18%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and lost 0.34%

Crude oil is in an uptrend and gained 4.69%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.86%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 2.45%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.48%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

 

Posted in Updates | 143 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Provided by the OEW Group

July 06, 2019

This holiday shortened week opened with a large gap up to SPX 2971 on Monday, hit 2978 within the first hour then began to sell off.  After lunch the SPX had dropped to 2952 but that was to become the low for the week.  On Tuesday 2970 became resistance early on producing a pullback to 2956 but from there the SPX moved on up and hit 2996 at the early close on Wednesday.  With Thursday being a holiday, Happy 4th to all, Friday saw a gap down to open at 2984 and continued to sell off into 2968.  A rally then started into 2994 before a 2990 close.

For the week, SPX/DOW gained 1.65%/1.21% while NDX/NAZ gained 2.22%/1.94%.

The economic news had positive reports for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Non Farm Payrolls, while ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI were all negative.

Next week economic news comes from Core CPI, Core PPI, FED Minutes and the FED Monetary Policy Report.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

This week started off with a large gap up at the open on Monday and proceeded to rally to a new all-time high of 2996 by the holiday shortened close on Wednesday.  Nice way to celebrate the 4th of July and honor our beloved maestro’s birthday, we miss you Tony!   There was no change to that status post-holiday, as Friday gapped down at the open, but recovered to fill most of the gap and finish just 6 points off the high by the end of the week.  The NAZ and NDX joined the party and confirmed new uptrends, which now puts all our market in alignment.  This extends the Minor wave 3 rally to 267 points from the Minor wave 2 low at 2729.  It’s been a persistent rally, 22 days without a medium term subdivision, which is right up there equal to the longest such duration since the Major wave 2 low last December.  This suggests some caution is advised, since a significant pullback could come at any time.  First logical target for Minor wave 3 completion remains at the 3300 level.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

Using our short term tracking, we can now count five waves up from the Minor wave 2 low [2729]>2911>2875>2964>2913>2996, which sets up a nice impulsive structure for the beginning of Minor 3.  We continue to track this as a potential Minute wave i of Minor wave 3, that’s subdividing into five Micro waves.  Micro wave 5 has been underway since last week’s low at 2913 and is either at or near completion at the high this week of 2996.  The upper limit for this count remains at 3002, since Micro wave 3 can’t be the smallest wave for this structure.  The market ran into resistance at our next pivot and setup a slight negative RSI divergence at Wednesday’s high.  Risk is now elevated for a sizable decline in the near term.  However, extension beyond 3002 suggests our alternate count may be in play, which is a more bullish Nano wave subdivision.  Once Minute wave i completes, we would expect the largest pullback since the trend began.

Short term support is at the 2984 and 2957 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2995 and 3032 pivots.  Short term and medium term RSI both have negative divergences.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 0.13%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.55%.

The DJ World index gained 1.21%, and the NYSE gained 1.24%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.23%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 1.46%

Gold is in an uptrend and lost 1.46%

GBTC is in an uptrend and lost 3.04%.

The USD is in a downtrend and gained 1.28%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 169 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

June 29, 2019

The week opened lower as the SPX gradually declined all day Monday to a low of 2944.  Last week’s close was at 2949.  On Tuesday the decline accelerated and continued throughout the day to a low of 2916 within the final hour of trading.  On Wednesday the SPX bounced up to 2933 at the open, but quickly reversed and proceeded to decline for the rest of the day to find the low of the week in the late afternoon at 2913.  Thursday and Friday saw a steady rally up to a high of 2944 within the last hour of trading and closed the week at 2942.

For the week, SPX/DOW lost 0.29/0.45% while NDX/NAZ lost 0.75/0.32%.

The economic news was mostly negative, with Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and Case Shiller Home Price Index all lower.  FHFA Housing Price Index and Mortgage Applications were higher.

Next week economic news comes from Chicago PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, and Auto and Truck sales.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.

 

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

This week the market paused as SPX generated a 51 point pullback to the low of the week at 2913 on Wednesday, then rallied on Friday to close at 2942, which regained most of the ground lost.  Although NAZ and NDX were still unable to confirm an uptrend, most share markets and sectors we watch have confirmed, except for a few non-US markets.  No change in status this week and we’re still expecting NAZ and NDX to follow in the coming days.  The Minor 3 wave rally continues to hold at 235 points to last week’s high of 2964 and has yet to generate any medium term subdivision.   First logical target for Minor 3 wave completion remains at the 3300 level.  Still watching for a potential impulsive subdivision of Minute waves using our short term tracking techniques.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned in last week’s report, we were expecting another small pullback for the Minor 3 rally and this week delivered that outcome.  Although the 51 point decline was a little larger than expected, it wasn’t sufficient to generate an overlap.  So we now can count four waves up from the Minor 2 low [2729]>2911>2875>2964>2912, with the fifth wave in progress of a potential impulsive structure.  We also mentioned the two most likely options for this rally and as shown, we’re favouring the small Micro 3 wave scenario until the market proves otherwise.  This suggests an upper limit for Minute-i of 273 points, to a high of 3002, since the third wave of a valid impulse can’t be the smallest.  The Nano wave subdivision option remains on the table as an alternate count, if/when this next rally can exceed the Micro 3 rally of 89 points.

Short term support is at the 2929 and 2884 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2957 and 2984 pivots.  Short term RSI got extremely oversold on Tuesday and set up a nice positive divergence at the Micro 4 low.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 0.75%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.60%.

The DJ World index lost 0.06%, and the NYSE gained 0.02%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.38%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 1.81%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.97%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 21.46%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.05%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 144 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

June 22, 2019

The week began quietly as Monday continued the consolidation from last week.  The SPX gapped higher on Tuesday, rose to 2931, and then traded in a narrow range in front of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.  The dovish Fed pushed the SPX higher with a gap up on Thursday.  The weekly high was reached mid-day on Friday at 2964, and the SPX closed at 2950 with late day volatility associated with Quadruple Witching options expiration.

For the week, the SPX/Dow gained 2.3% while the NDX/NAZ gained 3.15%.

The economic news for the week was negative, including the Empire State Manufacturing, NAHB Housing Market Index, Philadelphia Fed Index, and Leading Indicators.  The FOMC held rate constant and signalled future rate cuts possible.

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth moved back below zero over the last few weeks.

ecriwkly

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.  Minor waves 1 and 2 completed by the first trading day in June and Minor wave 3 has been ongoing since then.  Interesting to note that the DOW subdivided with an irregular Minor 2 from its Minor 1 rally high in February and consequently became more oversold this month at the Minor 2 low than the Major-2 low in December (see weekly chart below).

induwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

As discussed in the previous report, we were expecting an uptrend and this week both Dow and SPX delivered on that outcome.  As a result, the status of Minor 2 has been updated from tentative to confirmed.  We are expecting NAZ and NDX to follow in the coming days, as these indices have a much larger % decline to overcome from their Minor 2 lows (10-12%).  This suggests that Minor 2 bottomed on the first trading day this month at 2729 and Minor 3 has been in progress ever since.  The Minor 3 rally has been quite strong, achieving 235 points so far to the high on Friday of 2964, without any medium term subdivision.  Our first logical target for Minor 3 completion would be equal to Minor 1, which projects approximately 600 points up to over the 3300 level.  We’re now watching for a potential impulsive subdivision of Minute waves using our short term tracking techniques.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned, we have Minor 2 confirmed at 2729 and can count three small waves up so far from the low using our short term techniques.  Micro 1 at 2911, Micro 2 at 2875 and Micro 3 at 2964, with a negative divergence now building at the high.  This suggests another small pullback around 30-40 points may be forthcoming in the near term.  There are several options under consideration for this rally depending on the timing and depth of the next pullback.  Most likely would be either a small Micro 3 wave near completion or a possible subdivision to include Nano waves.  We need more price action to sort that out.

Short term support is at the 2929 and 2884 pivots.  Resistance remains at the prior high of 2954 and above at the 2957 and 2984 pivots.  Short term RSI got overbought at the gap up on Thursday, then set up a negative divergence into the high on Friday.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 4.9%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 3.5%.

The DJ World index gained 2.5%, and the NYSE gained 2.0%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.7%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 8.7%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 3.9%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 25.0%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 1.0%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!  Good luck trading the G-20 meeting!

Posted in Updates | 51 Comments