Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2579. After a slightly higher open on Monday the market gapped up on Tuesday. The rally continued through Wednesday and Friday, with only a 6 point pullback all week, to reach a new all-time high at SPX 2604. A dip into the close ended the week at SPX 2602. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.9%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.55%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: durable goods and consumer sentiment. On the uptick: leading indicators, existing home sales and weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports include Q3 GDP and the FED’s Beige book. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

The long-term bull market count remains unchanged since its early beginnings. A Major wave 1 bull market, consisting of five Intermediate waves, is underway. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Intermediate wave iii, as is often the case, then divided into five Minor waves. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017. An extended Minor wave 5 has been underway since then.

When Minor 5 does end, it will also end Intermediate wave iii. Then an Intermediate wave iv correction will follow. After that Intermediate wave v will take the market to all-time new highs. The bull market appears to have quite a way to go in time and price.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The market has been experiencing its longest uptrend since 2006/2007: seven months. It has been quite long as far as uptrends go, and quite complex. While the market continues to make new highs, extending the uptrend, we are seeing a three-fold Fibonacci area that could offer significant resistance in the days/weeks ahead to end the uptrend.

Normally a cluster of OEW pivots is all that is required to end an uptrend. The cluster just ahead is OEW 2632, 2646 and 2656. Another resistance area that fits into this analysis, is the length of previous uptrends within the bull market. From the February 2016 low the two largest uptrends have been 301 points and 317 points. This gives us a resistance range of SPX 2630-2646. The third resistance area has to do with the internals of the uptrend. The three rising Minute waves all divided into five Micro waves. Minute i’s three rising Micro waves: 77-93-43, and Minute iii’s three rising Micro waves: 83-161-53. Notice the last wave in each sequence ended between 0.56% and 0.64% of the first wave. When we look at the uptrend as a whole, since Minute v is not likely to offer all these Micro wave subdivisions, we have: 125-189-xxxx. Using the same percentage relationships, the last wave between 0.56% and 0.64% of the first, we arrive with this range SPX 2627-2637. Notice all three ranges overlap in the SPX 2630’s. Should this area end the uptrend and Intermediate wave iii. The likely decline for an Intermediate wave iv correction is 70-100 SPX points.

SHORT TERM

After completing Minute waves i and ii in June/July, Minute waves iii and iv in November, Minute wave v has been underway since the SPX 2557 low. Thus far we can count three waves up from that low: 2590-2578-2604. These waves may be of Pico or Nano degree. But the analysis above suggests they could be of Micro degree as well. Let’s see what the market looks like technically, when it reaches the OEW 2632 pivot range.

Short term support is at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 and 2646 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence, but no pullback in price as of yet. Best to your trading in the coming week!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net 0.9% gain.

European markets were all higher on the week and gained 0.9% as well.

The DJ World index gained 1.3%, and the NYSE gained 1.0%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are trying to establish an uptrend and ended flat on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 4.0%.

Gold remains in a downtrend and lost 0.7%.

The USD is now in a downtrend and lost 0.5% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: new home sales at 10am. Tuesday: Case-Shiller, and FED chair nomination hearing for FED governor Powell. Wednesday: Q3 GDP (est. 3.0%), pending home sales, the Beige book, and economic outlook testimony from FED chair Yellen . Thursday: weekly jobless claims, personal income/spending, and the Chicago PMI. Friday: ISM , construction spending, and auto sales.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Friday update

SHORT TERM: higher open new highs, DOW +32

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%.US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened 5 points above Wednesday’s SPX 2597 close. In the opening minutes the SPX dipped to 2601, then rose to 2604 in the afternoon. After that the market dipped to end the week at SPX 2602.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.35%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude rose 85 cents, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 pivot.

The market opened at a new high today, dipped, and then moved higher. The short term count, from the Minute iv SPX 2557 low, remains: 2590-2578-2604. We’re beginning to think this three wave advance may not be Pico or Nano waves, but Micro waves. More on this in the weekend update. Short term support is at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 pivot. Short term momentum is displaying a potential negative divergence, but no reversal in price yet. Best to your weekend and holiday shopping!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then quiet day, DOW -65

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 both weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders were reported lower. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2599 record close, and then started to drift lower. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported lower. At 1:30 the SPX hit 2595. Then at 2pm the FED ‘s FMOC minutes were released: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20171122a.htm. The market then bounced higher, but ended the day at SPX 2597.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds gained 13 ticks, Crude rose $1.15, Gold rallied $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 pivot. Tomorrow is the Thanksgiving holiday in the States. Markets will reopen on Friday for half a day.

The market opened at the all-time high today, then drifted lower for the rest of the day. Fairly quiet day, and no change in the short term count from SPX 2557: 2590-2578-2601 so far. Would be surprised if Friday’s half a day is any different than today. Short term support is at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 pivot. Short term momentum remained around neutral for most of the day. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening and rally, DOW +161

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 2592. The SPX had closed at 2582 yesterday. After the open the market continued to rally until it hit SPX 2600 at 11am. At 10am existing home sales were reported higher. Then the market went into a 2 point trading range until the SPX hit 2601 at 2pm. Then a 3 point trading range followed into the close ending the day at SPX 2599.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.10%. Bonds added 1 tick, Crude rose 55 cents, Gold moved up $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 pivot. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims and durable goods at 8:30, consumer sentiment at 10am, then the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market gapped up at the open today, jumping over the recent SPX 2590 high, then rallying past the SPX 2597 all-time high too. We can now count three waves up from the recent Minute iv low at SPX 2557: 2590-2578-2601. Again, too early to tell what degree these three waves are. But the market is already at all-time highs and appears heading to the OEW 2632 pivot range next. Short term support is now at the 2594 and 2575 pivots with resistance at the 2632 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought at today’s high. Best to your holiday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Monday update

SHORT TERM: quiet open – positive day, DOW +72

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were lower, then higher overnight. The market opened one point above Friday’s SPX 2579 close, ticked down to 2578 by 10am, then started to rise. At 10am leading indicators were reported higher. The advance continued until 3pm when the SPX hit 2585. Then a pullback into the close ended the day at SPX 2582.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold fell $15, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2575 and 2525 pivots, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am.

The market opened slightly higher today, dipped, then rose to SPX 2585. Fairly quiet day, starting what appears may be a fairly quiet holiday week. No change in the short term count from SPX 2557 for Minute v: 2590-2578. Of the widely followed US indices: only the SOX made new highs today. Short term support is at the 2575 pivot and SPX 2557, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots. Short term momentum traded above/below neutral today. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2582. After a gap down opening on Monday the market rallied to SPX 2588. Then additional gap down openings on Tuesday/Wednesday took the SPX to 2557. Thursday reversed with a gap up opening, rallying the market to SPX 2590. Then on Friday the market pulled back to end the week at SPX 2579. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.2%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.3%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: the NY/Philly FED, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit rose. On the uptick: the CPI/PPI, retail sales, import prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, the NAHB, housing starts and building permits. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, leading indicators and durable goods. Happy Thanksgiving!

LONG TERM: uptrend

While the new administration is having a difficult time getting major legislation passed. The fact that they have pledged, and are trying to do so, has clearly changed investor confidence. A quick look at the weekly charts bares this out. After the 2016 low, prior to and right around the election the market had 5% corrections. Since the election, one year ago this month, the market has had just one 3.3% correction. A recent analysis displayed there were only 9 times in the history of the US stock market, the market has gone about this many trading days without so much as a 5% correction. All of those previous events occurred during the 1949-1966 P3 or the 1982-2000 P3. More evidence a P3 Secular bull market is underway.

Our wave count from the P2 2016 SPX 1810 low remains unchanged. This Major 1 bull market is dividing into five Intermediate waves. Int. waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Int. wave iii then subdivided into five Minor waves. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 completed in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5 has been underway since then. When it does complete, Int. iii will also end, and then the largest correction since 2016 could unfold. After that Int. iv correction, Int. v will carry the market to all-time new highs.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The entire range for the week occurred within about 24 hours SPX: 2557-2590. Leading up to that point the market had experienced four gap down openings within five trading days. Normally we would have expected the SPX to be down 4%-5% after such selling pressure. But the market was only down 1.5%, from the all-time high at its worse level. There definitely appears to be buyers under current levels.

The current Minor wave 5 uptrend continues to extend. It started back in April at SPX 2329 and recently reached SPX 2597. We have been tracking this extended uptrend throughout as it divided into five Minute waves. With each rising Minute wave subdividing into five Micro waves, with sometimes with further subdivisions. Minute waves i and ii ended in June/July, and Minute waves iii and iv recently ended in November. It appears Minute v is now underway from Wednesday’s SPX 2557 low. Medium term support is at the 2575 and 2525 pivots, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots.

SHORT TERM

With Minute iii longer than Minute i, Minute v can now be at any length. We are initially estimating that it will be short, in time and price, like so many fifth waves in the past. Our target for Minute iii was the OEW 2594 pivot range. Where it eventually hit twice before heading into Minute iv. Minute iv appears to have bottomed above our SPX 2540’s target at SPX 2557. We are expecting Minute v to top between the 2632 and 2656 pivot ranges.

Thus far from the Minute iv low, Minute v has rallied in two waves SPX: 2590-2578. These waves may be of Pico, Nano, or even Micro degree. It is too early to tell at this time. Whatever the outcome we do expect SPX 2557 to hold for Minute iv, and the market to make new all-time highs shortly. Short term support is at the 2575 pivot and SPX 2557, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week oversold. Best to your trading during the upcoming holiday shortened week.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets for the week were mostly lower losing 0.8%.

European markets were also mostly lower losing 0.9%.

The DJ World index lost 0.1%, and the NYSE lost 0.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend but gained 0.3%.

Crude remains in an uptrend but lost 0.1%.

Gold appears to be in an uptrend and gained 1.8%.

The USD appears to be in a downtrend and lost 0.5%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: leading indicators at 10am. Tuesday: existing homes sales. Wednesday: weekly jobless claims, durable goods, consumer sentiment and the FOMC minutes. Thursday: Thanksgiving holiday. Friday: markets close at 1pm.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Friday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then drift sideways/lower, DOW -100

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 building permits and housing starts were both reported higher. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2586 close. After a tick down to SPX 2580 the market then went into a four point trading range until the last hour of trading. In the last hour the SPX dipped to 2578 then ticked up to close at 2579.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.25%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rose $1.40, Gold rallied $15, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2575 and 2525 pivots, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots.

The market opened lower today for the fourth time this week. After yesterday’s strong rally it was not surprising there was some sort of pullback during options expiration. The pullback, 12-points, triggered a quantified wave. This fits with what we are observing at this stage of the uptrend. A Minute wave v subdividing. Will cover this possibility and others in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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