Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: flat opening then drift higher, DOW +42

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher but ended mixed. US index futures were slightly lower overnight, and the market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2551 close. By 10am the SPX had drifted down to 2548. After that it started to drift higher. At 2pm the FED released the FOMC minutes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20171011a.htm. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2555, and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rose 40 cents, Gold gained $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Tomorrow: jobless claims and the PPI at 8:30.

Not a whole lot new going on in this market these days. Market opened flat today, dipped, then rallied to yesterday’s all-time high, where it closed. The short term count from SPX 2417 remains basically unchanged: Nano 1: 2455, Nano 2: 2428, Nano 3: 2480-2447-2509-2488-2555. Still waiting for the elusive Nano 4 and Nano 5 to end Micro 3. Then Micro 4 and 5 to end Minute iii. Lots of subdivisions within the Minor 5 uptrend. Short term support is at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short tem momentum ended overbought. Best to you trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: market opens higher then pulls back again, DOW +70

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened 6-points above yesterday’s SPX 2545 close. In the opening minutes the market rallied to SPX 2555, a new high, then began to pullback. By 12:30 the market had retraced the entire opening rally when it hit SPX 2545. Then a bounce into the close ended the day at SPX 2551.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose $1.35, Gold rose $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Tomorrow: FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market opened higher today, after it looked like it was about to continue yesterdays’ pullback. In the opening minutes the SPX rallied to a new high at 2555. Then pulled back for the rest of the day. Choppy action the past three trading days after establishing the SPX 2553 high on Thursday. Still no change in the short term count. Been over two weeks since the market had its last notable pullback. Short term negative divergences just about everywhere. Short term support at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Monday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW -13

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1% as well. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, but the market opened three points above Friday’s SPX 2549 close. Right after the open the market started to pullback. By 10:30 the SPX hit 2546. Then after a bounce to SPX 2549 by noon the market headed even lower. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2542 twice. Then bounced to close at SPX 2545.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.15%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose 20 cents, Gold rallied $10, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance a the 2575 and 2594 pivots.

The market opened slightly higher today, but immediately began to pullback. Thus far the market has only declined about 11-points from the SPX 2553 all-time high. If this is the Nano 4 wave we have been awaiting, the market should drop another 10+ points to confirm. All notable pullbacks since the SPX 2417 Micro 2 low have been between 21 and 33 points. The R2K, TRAN, and NYSE were all a bit weaker today, maybe it is time. Short term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short term momentum nearly hit oversold today for the first time in two weeks. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2519. After a higher opened on Monday the market rallied everyday until hitting SPX 2553 on Thursday. On Friday monthly NFP surprisingly was reported negative, and the market pulled back to SPX 2544. Then a bounce into the close ended the week at SPX 2549. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.45%. Economic reports for the week were mostly higher. On the downtick: the ADP, NFP, consumer credit and the Q3 GDP estimate. On the uptick: ISM manufacturing/services, construction spending, auto sales, factory orders, wholesale inventories, plus, jobless claims, trade deficit, and unemployment rate all improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes and the CPI/PPI. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

Back in August we were closely monitoring the TRANsports, and the NDX/NYSE. The TRAN had potentially ended its bull market in July, and was currently in a downtrend. Generally this index is a leading/coincident indicator for the general market. In September it found support above a critical level, and entered an uptrend. Now in October it is making all time new highs, along with the NDX/NYSE, as its bull market is now subdividing and extending.

The SPX, along with the DOW/NAZ, all appear to have the same bull market wave count. This Major wave 1 bull market should unfold in five Intermediate waves. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Then Intermediate iii started to subdivide. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended in the fall of 2016. Minor waves 3 and 4 completed in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5 has been underway since April. Longest uptrend, in time, of the entire bull market. When it concludes, Int. iii should end, and the market could experience its largest correction since 2016. After that the bull market will resume.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

As noted above this uptrend is the longest uptrend, in time, since the bull market began. The other three uptrends were 2 months, 2 months, and 4 months respectively. Normally, the longest and strongest uptrend in a bull market is the third of a third wave. Not a fifth wave as we are counting it. Something to keep in mind going forward.

Minor 5 began in April at SPX 2329. It first unfolded in the five Micro waves (orange) to complete Minute wave i at SPX 2454 in June. Then after a small decline to SPX 2408 in July for Minute ii, Minute iii was underway. Thus far, Minute iii has completed Micro waves 1 and 2, with 3 underway since the August 2417 low. This week Micro 3 easily cleared previous highs as it hit SPX 2553. Next target the OEW 2575 pivot. Medium term support is at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots.

SHORT TERM

We have been tracking the nano and pico waves quantitatively that create each of the Micro waves as they unfold. We have not added this labeling to the hourly chart, to avoid clutter. But we do discuss the wave pattern of each unfolding Micro wave in the daily/weekly write up.

Micro wave 3 from the SPX 2417 low has continued to unfold in a relatively simple pattern. Nano 1. 2455, Nano 2. 2428, Nano 3. 2480-2447-2509-2488-2553 so far. We still need to see an end to Nano 3. Then after a Nano 4 pullback, another push to new highs to complete Nan0 5 and Micro 3. But this still doesn’t end the Minor 5 uptrend. We continue to take it just one wave at a time. Short term support is at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short term momentum spent 5-days  extremely overbought, then broke below neutral on Friday. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were all higher this week, especially H.K. +3.3%, for a net gain of 1.4%.

The European markets were mixed and ended the week mixed.

The DJ World index gained 0.9%, and the NYSE also gained 0.9%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and lost 0.2%.

Crude is still in an uptrend but lost 4.5% on the week.

Gold is in a downtrend and lost 0.8%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 1.0%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: bank holiday markets open. Wednesday: the FOMC minutes. Thursday: jobless claims and the PPI. Friday: the CPI, consumer sentiment, retail sales and business inventories. Best to your extended weekend, if you have one.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Friday update

SHORT TERM: NFP 33k job loss surprise, DOW -2

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, especially after monthly payrolls posted its first decline since 2010. The market opened 6 points below yesterday’s SPX 2552 record close, then bounced to 2549 by 10am. At 10am wholesale inventories were reported higher. The market then declined to SPX 2544 by 11am. After that the market worked it ways higher to end the week at SPX 2549.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dropped $1.50, Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 pivot. Today the Q3 GDP  estimate was lowered.

The market opened lower by more than 5-points for the first time in three weeks today. Quite a record. Traders took the opportunity to take some profits after NFP surprisingly came in negative for the first time in 7 years. While many were blaming the negative report on the hurricanes, we took a look at the historical data. Typically negative NFP reports occur entering/during/just after recessions. There are occasions, however, when an isolated one month decline occurs during expansions: 1995, 1996 and 1997. For now, we’ll go along with the hurricane consensus while awaiting next months report. The pullback from yesterday’s extremely overbought SPX 2553 all-time high is only 9-points so far. Not enough to have an impact on the short term count. Yesterday’s comments still apply. Enjoy the weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Thursday update

SHORT TERM: higher open and new highs, DOW +114

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were slightly higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower, and the trade deficit was lower. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2538 high, and continued to rally. At 10am factory orders were reported higher. The rally continued until 3pm when the SPX hit 2553. Then a slight pullback ended the day at 2552.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.90%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude gained 75 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 pivot. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls (est. 75K) at 8:30, wholesale inventories at 10am, then consumer credit at 3pm.

The market opened at its all-time high today, and then continued to move higher throughout the day. The advance from last Monday’s SPX 2488 low has now exceeded the largest advance since the mid-August SPX 2417 low. Quite a rally. The short term count from that SPX 2417 low continues to extend: 1. 2455, 2. 2428, 3. 2480-2447-2509-2488-2553. Still waiting for an end to this third wave, then a fourth and fifth wave to complete this lengthy Micro wave 3. Short term momentum has remained nearly extremely overbought all week. Daily momentum is also at extreme levels. Relentless advance. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then new highs, DOW +20

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP was reported lower. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 2535 close, bounced around for a while, and then rallied to new highs. At 10am ISM services was reported at a 12-year high. Around 12:30 the SPX hit 2541, and then began to pullback. The pullback ended around 1:30 at SPX 2535. Then the market bounced into a SPX 2538 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.05%. Bonds added 1 tick, Crude dropped 55 cents, Gold rose $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 pivot. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit at 8:30, then factory orders at 10am.

The market opened a few points lower today, rallied to new highs, then had another small pullback. Nothing noteworthy in the pullback department since a week ago Monday, when the SPX hit 2488. The current 53-point rally from that low is now approaching the largest rally since the SPX 2417 low in August (62-points). Quite a steady advance. Short term wave count from SPX 2417 continues to rise: 2455-2428-2541. See yesterday’s update for the third wave subdivisions. Short term support is at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought at today’s high. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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