quick update: Swarm A. I.

Today at 5pm eastern time we are having our second financial asset market Swarm in our ongoing scientific study. For those that participated in last week’s first swarm – please join us again. The room size has been doubled to accommodate everyone. If you did not participate and would like to, please follow the instructions in the second paragraph of this link: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/swarm-intelligence/.

Please fill out this survey at any time today before entering the swarm: https://www.research.net/r/BS52R25

Also this week we are using a private link to enter the SPX UNU: https://go.unu.ai/unums/2382

The Swarm study will start promptly at 5pm. Thank you for participating!

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Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +143

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2323, and continued to rise. The SPX had closed at 2316 on Friday. With 2-point pullbacks along the way the market rose to SPX 2332 by 1:30. Then a pullback into the close ended the day at SPX 2328.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.55%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude dropped 95 cents, Gold slid $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at the 2336 and 2385 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, then FED chair Yellen’s congressional economic testimony at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, jumping over the OEW 2321 pivot. It then cleared that pivot and rallied to within 4 points of the 2336 pivot. Considering Monday’s have been generally down days for the past five weeks, rallying right up to the 2336 pivot was an impressive beginning to the week. This rally, from Wednesday’s SPX 2285 low, looks quite impulsive. Should the market clear the 2336 this week, then the next pivot is not until 2385. Short term support is now at the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at the 2336 and 2385 pivots. Short term momentum remained quite overbought all day, and ended overbought. Best to your trading!

UNU SWARM: tomorrow Tuesday at 5PM eastern, please be prompt. For those interested in joining, that did not participate last week, please follow the instructions posted in this link: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/swarm-intelligence/. thank you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 93 Comments

weekend update

REVIEW

The market started the week at SPX 2297. After a pullback to SPX 2289 on Monday, the market rallied to SPX 2299 on Tuesday. Wednesday’s pullback took the SPX to 2285. Then the market rallied to all-time new highs on Thursday/Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.25%. Economic reports for the week were split. On the downtick: consumer credit/sentiment, import prices and the Q1 GDP estimate. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, export prices, treasury budget, plus the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by FED chair Yellen’s semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, industrial production and retail sales. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

After weeks of an upper-level consolidation the market broke out to new highs. This extends the current uptrend to 3 months in duration. Making it longer in time, than either of the previous two impulsive uptrends in this bull market. This uptrend is starting to look like a third wave. Third wave uptrends usually take the longest time to unfold and travel the most points as well. Total market breadth made new highs for this bull market, supporting this probable scenario.

spxweekly

The count from the Primary II bear market low in February 2016 remains unchanged. A lengthy Primary III bull market is underway, and we are tracking Major wave 1 of Primary III. This far, Intermediate waves i and ii completed in April and June respectively. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in August and November respectively. Minor wave 3, of Int. iii, is currently underway from the SPX 2084 November low.

The last bearish possibility, for this long term uptrend, is straight ahead at SPX 2336. Once cleared SPX 3000+, over the next one to three years, should be possible.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The current uptrend began just days before the election in November at SPX 2084. The market rallied, in five waves, to SPX 2279 by mid-December. Then pulled back to SPX 2234 by early-January. Anticipating that this uptrend should be Minor wave 3, we knew it was too short in time and price for that labeling, and labeled the rally and pullback as Minute waves i and ii of Minor 3.

spxdaily

The advance for the rest of January was choppy and only three waves. We then suggested the possibility that it could be an irregular B wave of Minute wave ii. The upside limit for that possibility was SPX 2305. When the market surged past that level this week we eliminated that possibility, and firmed up the Minute ii wave low at SPX 2234. Minute wave iii of Minor 3 clearly appears to be underway.

Our estimate for this uptrend, back in November, was the SPX 2380’s. The current internal wave structure suggests it could be higher. Minute wave i was 194 points (2084-2278). Normally third waves are equal to, or greater than, first waves. This would give us a minimum upside target in the SPX 2420’s. And, that is only if Minute waves iii through v equal Minute i. It could go a lot higher. Medium term support is at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots.

SHORT TERM

While the first two sections of this week’s report are quite bullish, there is still a price obstacle ahead of this market: SPX 2336. This level represents a 1.618 multiplier of the recent bear market decline SPX: 2135-1810. Once cleared the last potential bearish scenario gets eliminated. This is of long term significance.

There is also a medium term significance. We do have an alternate short term wave count that could end the uptrend between the OEW 2321 and 2336 pivots. As noted earlier, third waves are usually quite strong. However, if these two pivots offer as much resistance as the OEW 2270 and 2286 pivots. Then the resulting choppy activity could end this uptrend in that price zone. Something to watch in the weeks ahead.

spxhourly

Putting those caveats aside. Minute wave iii, as labeled above, should currently be in Micro wave 3 from the recent Micro 2 low at SPX 2257 low. Micro wave 1, also in orange, ended at SPX 2282 from the Minute ii SPX 2234 low. This count suggest a powerful move to the upside. However, if the rally fizzles out between those pivots then a correction of about 5% should follow. Short term support is at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots. Short term momentum ended another negative divergence. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all higher on the week for a net gain of 1.5%.

European markets were mixed and ended mixed.

The DJ World index gained 0.7%, and the NYSE gained 0.6%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.4%.

Crude appears to be in an uptrend and gained 0.1%.

Gold remains in an uptrend and gained 1.2%.

The USD is still in a downtrend and but gained 0.9%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: the PPI and FED chair Yellen’s senate monetary testimony. Wednesday: CPI, NY FED, retail sales, industrial production, and the NAHB. Thursday: housing starts, building permits, and the Philly FED. Friday: leading indicators and options expiration.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in weekend update | Tagged , , , | 167 Comments

Friday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +97

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 export (0.1% v 0.4%)/import (-0.2% v -0.2%) prices were reported mixed. The market opened 5 points above yesterday’s SPX 2308 record close, bounced around a bit, then started to move higher. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported lower: 95.7 v 98.5. Just before 2pm the SPX hit 2319. At 2pm the government reported a budget surplus: $51.3B v $55.2B. Then a small pullback heading into the close ended the week at SPX 2316.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude rose 80 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported unchanged at 61.8%, and the Q1 GDP estimate ended the week at 2.7% v 3.4% last week.

The market opened higher today, hardly pulled back at all – avoiding to trigger yesterday’s negative divergence, and then started moving higher. By 10:30 the SPX entered the OEW 2321 pivot range, dipped, and then rose to SPX 2319. Within 2 points of the OEW 2321 pivot. So far the rally looks good, having advanced above SPX 2305 to 2319 with nothing more than a 4 point pullback. Short term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with another negative divergence. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 31 Comments

Thursday update

SHORT TERM: higher open – new all-time highs, DOW +118

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 234K v 246K. The market opened 3 points above yesterday’s SPX 2295 close, and tried to continue to rise. At 10am wholesale inventories were reported higher: 1.0% v 1.0%. Just past 10am the market broke out to new highs. At 11:30 the SPX hit 2310, pulled back to 2306 by 1pm, then hit 2311 at 2:30. Then a dip into the close ended the day at SPX 2308.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.45%. Bonds dropped 15 ticks, Crude rose 75 cents, Gold slid $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots. Tomorrow: export/import prices at 8:30, consumer sentiment at 10am, then the budget deficit at 2pm.

The market opened higher today, and for the fifth time in two weeks it traded up to the SPX 2298-2301 area. Then it broke out. The rally also carried the SPX past the 2305 level before 11am, eliminating the potential irregular B wave scenario. We then updated the SPX short term charts to display only the count that was posted in orange: Micro 3 of Minute iii underway. Since this should be a third of a third rally, it should act like a third wave. It should not revisit yesterday’s SPX 2285 low. If it does, then the 2321 and 2336 pivots will offer stiff resistance for this uptrend. Short term support is now at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought at today’s high, then ended with a slight negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 152 Comments

Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then rebound, DOW -36

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 6 points below yesterday’s SPX 2293 close. In the opening minutes the SPX ticked down to 2285, and then began to rebound. Around 11am the market turned positive, hit SPX 2296 by 3:30, then dipped to close at 2295.

For the day the SPX/DOW was mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude rose 25 cents, Gold climbed $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims at 8:30, then wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened 6 points lower and it looked like it was going to do something today. A few minutes later the market found support at SPX 2285 and started to rebound. Just past 11am it turned positive, and then went back to doing nothing. Thought for a moment we would have something to write about today. But the market remained between SPX 2267 and SPX 2305 levels for the 6th day in a row. The range for this week is SPX 2285-2299. Short term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2301 and the 2321 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold early, then rose to above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 131 Comments

Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open minor gains, DOW +38

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the trade deficit was reported lower: -$44.3B v -$45.2B. The market opened 4 points above yesterday’s SPX 2293 close, ticked up to 2299, and then started to pullback. By 1pm the SPX had hit 2290. At 3pm consumer credit was reported lower: $14.2B v 24.5B. Just after 3pm the market hit  SPX 2295. Then a pullback ended the day at SPX 2293.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds rose 4 ticks, Crude dropped 80 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots.

The market opened higher today. The DOW/NDX/NAZ made all-time new highs, but the SPX did not. Then the market started to pullback. There remains some stiff resistance around the SPX 2300 level. Look at the daily highs over the past two weeks: 01/25 2300, 01/26 2301, 02/03 2298 and 02/07 2299. The market may need to gap over this level if this uptrend is going to extend any time soon. SPX 2267 and 2305 remain the key levels to watch. Short term support is at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2301 and the 2321 pivot. Short term momentum set up another negative divergence at today’s high then dropped to neutral. Best to your trading!

Please join us at the UNU Swarm at 5PM. cheers!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 101 Comments