Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open FED raises 25 bps, DOW +113

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: 0.1% v 0.6%, retail sales were reported higher: 0.1% v 0.4%, and the NY FED was reported lower: 16.4 v 18.7. The market opened at SPX 2371 and continued to rise. The SPX had closed at 2365 yesterday. At 10am business inventories were reported higher: 0.3% v 0.4%, and the NAHB was reported at a 12-year high: 71 v 65. The market continued to rise until 1pm when the SPX hit 2177. Then after a 3 point dip the market awaited the FED rate announcement. As widely expected the FED raised rates by 25 bps, and released this statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20170315a.htm. Also: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20170315.pdf. The market immediately rallied to SPX 2383, pulled back to 2378 just before Yellen’s press conference, then rallied to 2390 by 3:30. After that the SPX pulled back to close at 2385.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.70%. Bonds rallied 29 ticks, Crude rose $1.10, Gold jumped $21, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: housing starts, building permits, the Philly FED and weekly jobless claims at 8:30.

The market opened higher today, rallied right up to SPX 2377, then pulled back 3 points just before the FOMC rate announcement. After that, the market cleared SPX 2377 suggesting Nano wave v is now underway to new highs. It is interesting how the market paused right at that number. With the 1st and 3rd waves now behind us in this uptrend, and 5th waves in recent years relatively weak, all that is required for Nano v is to make a new high above SPX 2401. The OEW 2411 pivot range comes to mind. After that the OEW 2428 pivot range. With lots more economic reports ahead, and options expiration, there could be a wild finish to the week. Short term support is at SPX 2353/55 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum ended the day quite overbought. Trade what is in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then bounce, DOW -44

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5% – mostly India. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and broke lower after Crude started selling off. At 8:30 the PPI was reported higher: 0.3% v 0.6%, and the FED started their 2-day FOMC meeting. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2366 and continued to decline. The SPX has closed at 2373 yesterday. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2358, then rallied back to 2366 by noon. Another pullback followed to SPX 2360 by 12:30, then a bounce into the close ended the day at 2365.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude dropped 45 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI, retail sales and the NY FED at 8:30; business inventories and the NAHB at 10am, then the FED’s rate decision at 2pm.

The market gapped down at the open today for the first time since last Monday – when the market was in the middle of its decline from SPX 2401 to 2355. Today’s selling again should be credited to the decline in Crude, which started last Wednesday at $53 and hit $47 today. At today’s Crude low the SPX hit 2358, nearly retracing all of the recent 2355-2377 rally. With the market not clearing SPX 2377 and instead heading lower, a rising Nano wave v may not be underway just yet. The economic activity over the next few days should clear up the short term count. Short term support is at SPX 2353/55 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum dropped down to oversold during the decline, then bounced back to neutral. Trade what’s in front of you! Swarm in an hour.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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quick update: Swarm A. I. Tuesday

Today at 5pm eastern time we are having our financial asset market Swarm in our ongoing scientific study. For those that participated in last week’s swarm – please join us again. If you did not participate and would like to, please follow the instructions in the second paragraph of this link: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/swarm-intelligence/.

Please fill out this survey any time today before entering the swarm. Unanimous AI is offering a $25 Amazon Gift card to the most correct participant: https://www.research.net/r/Q7HMXGW

Use this private link to enter the SPX UNU: https://go.unu.ai/unums/2382

The Swarm study will start promptly at 5pm. Thank you for participating!

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Monday update

SHORT TERM: quiet day, DOW -22

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were relatively unchanged overnight, and the market opened unchanged at SPX 2373. After a tick up to SPX 2374 in the opening minutes the market started to pullback. At 11:30 the market hit SPX 2369, then started drifting back up. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2374 and closed at 2373.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents. Gold was flat, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, and the FED starts its 2-day FOMC meeting.

The market opened unchanged today, ticked up one point, then spent the rest of the morning drifting sideways to lower. After that a bounce into the close ended the day unchanged. A Nor’easter in NYC and lots of important economic data ahead probably contributed to the quiet trading. Not much has changed coming off the potential SPX 2355 Nano iv was low. Thus far we have a rally to SPX 2377, a pullback to 2363, and another rally to 2374. Market needs to clear SPX 2377 next to get this potential Nano wave v on its way. Short term support is at SPX 2353/55 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum spent the whole day just above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 93 Comments

weekend update

REVIEW

The market started the week at SPX 2383. After a gap down opening on Monday the market declined to SPX 2355 by Thursday. Then a gap up opening on Friday carried the SPX to 2377, before ending the week at 2373. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: consumer credit, wholesale inventories, the WLEI, the Q1 GDP estimate, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit increased. On the uptick: factory orders, the ADP, export/import prices, monthly payrolls, plus the unemployment rate and budget deficit declined. Next week the FOMC meets, and there are reports on industrial production, housing, the CPI/PPI, retail sales, plus its options expiration Friday. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

For the past couple of weeks we have been noting the SPX weekly RSI. Typically this indicator hits its highest overbought level during the third of a third wave during a bull market. Last Friday it hit its highest level in 13 years at 91.63. With this week’s pullback in the indices it dropped to 80.36. This is quite normal. Would expect to observe a negative divergence next when the current uptrend ends. Then during the next correction a drop down to around the oversold 30 level. As the rest of the bull market unfolds, uptrends should peak on lower overbought levels in the months ahead.

The long term count remains unchanged. A Super Cycle wave 2 low in 2009, a Primary wave I high in 2015, and a Primary wave II low in 2016. Major wave 1 of a Primary wave III bull market is currently underway. Impulsive Major waves divide into five Intermediate waves, and Intermediate waves divide into five Minor waves. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in April and June at SPX 2111 and SPX 1992 respectively. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in August and November at SPX 2194 and SPX 2084 respectively. A rising Minor wave 3 uptrend has been underway since then.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The Minor wave 3 uptrend started in early November, just before the election, at SPX 2084. Last Wednesday, March 1st, it hit a temporary high of SPX 2401. This uptrend is not only the longest of this bull market, four months, it has also gained the most SPX points: 317. The previous two uptrends were both two months long and gained 301 and 202 points respectively. This is typical third wave activity.

Minor wave 1 divided into five minute waves, and Minor wave 3 is doing the same. While Minor wave 1’s minute waves were relatively short, Minor wave 3’s minute waves are much longer. Minute i topped in mid-December at SPX 2278, and Minute ii bottomed in late-December at SPX 2234. Minute iii of Minor 3 has been underway since then. When Minute iii concludes we should see a Minute iv pullback, then a Minute v rally to new highs to end this Minor 3 uptrend. Medium term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Minute wave iii is dividing into five Micro waves, just like Minute wave i. Due to the length of this uptrend, Microwave 3 is dividing into five Nano waves. With the thrust of this entire uptrend occurring recently during Nano wave iii. As you can observe in the chart below Micro waves 1-2 have completed, along with Nano waves i-ii-iii and likely iv at Thursday’s SPX 2355 low. This count suggests the market could become a bit volatile as Nano v completes Micro 3 at new highs, Micro 5 completes Minute iii at new highs, and finally Minute v completes the Minor 3 uptrend at new highs.

The DOW count, which can be found using the chart link below, suggests the market just completed Micro wave 3 at the March 1st high. It does not have the Nano wave subdivisions. And Microwave 4 likely bottomed at Thursday’s lows. This count suggests the next series of new highs will complete Minute iii. Then after a Minute iv pullback, Minute v would complete the Minor 3 uptrend. We will continue to keep an eye on both counts as this uptrend unfolds. Short term support is at SPX 2353/55 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum ended the week above neutral. Best to your trading on options expiration week.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly higher and gained 0.3% on the week.

European markets were mixed and gained 0.2%.

The DJ World index lost 0.4%, and the NYSE lost 0.8% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and lost 0.5% on the week.

Crude is also in a downtrend and lost 9.1%.

Gold is in a downtrend too and lost 2.1%.

The USD is in an uptrend but lost 0.5%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: the PPI. Wednesday: the CPI, retail sales, NY FED, business inventories and the FED rate decision (est. +25bps). Thursday: housing starts, building permits, weekly jobless claims, and the Philly FED. Friday: industrial production, consumer sentiment and options expiration. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then pullback, DOW +45

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 monthly payrolls were reported higher: 235K v 223K, and the unemployment rate improved: 4.7% v 4.8%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2376 and immediately began to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2365 yesterday. After a 5 point pullback the SPX rallied to 2377 by 10am. Then Crude headed lower and took the SPX with it. At 11am the SPX hit 2367, bounced to 2372 by 11:30, then closed the gap when hitting 2363 at 1pm. After that the market started to work its way higher. At 2pm the budget deficit was reported slightly lower: -$192.0B v -$192.6B. The rally continued into the close and the SPX ended the week at 2373.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude dropped 80 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 59.5% v 60.2%, and this week the Q1 GDP estimated was lowered: 1.2% v 1.8%.

The market gapped up at the open today for the first time since a week ago Wednesday when the SPX hit its all-time high of 2401. After a quick pullback the SPX hit a higher level at 2377. Then Crude oil seemed to take center stage. When Crude broke $49, on its way to $48.30, the SPX followed it lower. By 1pm the SPX had closed the gap and hit 2363. After that Crude seemed to stabilize and the market started to rise again. At this morning’s open we labeled yesterday’s SPX 2355 low with a tentative green Nano wave iv. Nano wave v should now be underway. Short term support remains at SPX 2353/55 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum hit overbought, after yesterday’s positive divergence, and ended the week just above neutral. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 26 Comments

Thursday update

SHORT TERM: pullback makes lower low, DOW +2

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 243K v 223K, and export (0.3% v 0.1%)/import (0.3% v -0.2%) prices were reported higher. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2363 close, then rose to 2369 just past 10am. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2355 just past 2pm. After that it declined to SPX 2355 just past 2pm. It then rallied to SPX 2366 by 3:30, before dipping to 2365 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude dropped 60 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls (est. 200K) at 8:30, then the budget deficit at 2pm.

The market opened slightly lower today, had a small rally, then dropped to a new low for the pullback. Thus far the pullback has declined from SPX 2401 to 2355, or 46 points. This decline is now the largest pullback since the uptrend began in early November at SPX 2084. Today’s decline triggered an update to the short term DOW count. It now displays a Micro wave 3 in place, with a Micro wave 4 of Minute wave iii underway. The SPX count still displays a Nano wave iii in place, with a Nano wave iv underway. Both hourly charts are up to date. The slight difference in short term wave degrees is nothing unusual. By time this uptrends ends, one or both will be correct. Today’s late-afternoon 11 point rally matched the largest rally of this entire pullback. Should the SPX hit 2367 next, we will place a tentative green Nano wave iv label at the 2355 low. Short term support remains at SPX 2353 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum displayed a positive divergence at today’s low. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 91 Comments