Weekend Update

Due to the holiday weekend there will be no weekend report.

Comments will be shutdown until further notice.

Have a good trading week.

Posted in Updates

Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Provided by the OEW Group

May 18, 2019

The week started with a large gap down of 41 points to open at SPX 2840 and sold off into lunchtime where the low for the week was made at 2801, before a bounce and then close at 2812. Tuesday gapped up and rose into lunch hitting 2853, then gave back some of those gains into the close finishing at 2834.  Wednesday gave a gap down opening of 14pts and hit 2815 within the first hour, from that point the market then rallied and managed to reach 2892 by Thursday lunchtime with no more than an 8pt pullback along the way, but the afternoon session saw some of those gains given back, hitting 2871 and closing at 2876.  Friday saw a gap down and hit 2854 within the first hour, then rallied to 2885 but gave back nearly all of those gains closing the week at 2860

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 0.76% while the NDX/NAS lost 1.27%

Economic news this week had positive reports from Building Permits and Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index and negative reports from Core Retails Sales and Export Price Index.

Next week, economic news comes from Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, New Homes Sales and Core Durable Goods Orders.  In addition, on Monday at 7pm (ET) FED Chair Powell speaks.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend

spxdaily

This week the inflection point was resolved as the SPX, NAZ and NDX did indeed follow the DOW as expected with downtrend confirmations.  For all three of these indices, it’s the first downtrend since the Major 2 low in December.  After this week’s action, the count has become clearer with Minor 1 at the recent high after what looks like an ending diagonal Minute v that has been ongoing since early Feb.  Minor 1 started in late December at 2347 and took just over 4 months to complete, totalling 607pts.  Minor 2 has been underway for the past couple of weeks and made a low at 2801 on Monday.  This could be all of Minor 2 or just Minute a.  The DOW count remains unchanged with an irregular Minor 2 correction as posted last week for our alternate count.  Minor 1 top at the Feb high, Minute a at the March low, an irregular Minute b at the April high and Minute c in progress.  With all 4 indices now aligned, once Minor 2 completes, Minor 3 should carry the markets to new highs once again.

indudaily

 

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned, we’re now counting Minute v of Minor 1 as an ending diagonal.  Since Minor 1 topped, Minor 2 has declined 5.2% which is sufficient to satisfy Minor wave degree correction.  Looks like last Friday’s rally turned out to be just another b wave of the ongoing correction from Minor 1 top.  From Monday’s low at 2801, we can count 3 small waves up, 2853>2815>2892, followed by choppy price action on Friday.  This has been the largest rally since Minor 2 began, but it fell short of clearing the 61.8% retracement level at 2896.  More price action is needed before feeling confident Minor 3 is underway.  If 2853 is overlapped before further upside, then the rally remains corrective and suggests Minor 2 may still be unfolding.

Short term support is at the 2858 and 2835 pivots.  Resistance is at 2884 and 2929 pivots.  The SPX 60-minute chart is approaching oversold territory with the daily chart neutral after hitting its most oversold reading this year on Monday.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 3.48%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.11%.

The DJ World index lost 0.85%, and the NYSE lost 1.02%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.47%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 1.96%

Gold is in a downtrend and lost 0. 91%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 13.02%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.72%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 443 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Update

 Provided by the OEW Group

May 11, 2019

Tariff Man and volatility came back this week!  After a Sunday night tweet threatening additional tariffs on China, the SPX gapped down to 2898 on Monday.  Buyers drove price back up to 2937 by the close, but Tuesday saw another gap down and trend day falling to 2863 before a late day ramp into the close.  A small rally continued on Wednesday pushing the SPX near 2900.  Traders sold into the close and another gap down open occurred on Thursday with the SPX falling to 2836.  An oversold rally to 2876 led to another gap down on Friday to the week’s low of 2825.  The markets rallied again with news that the US is giving China 3-4 weeks to come to an agreement or face new tariffs.  The SPX rallied to 2891 and closed at 2882.

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 2.2% while the NDX/NAS lost 3.2%.

Economic news was light this week with positive reports from JOLTS – Job Openings and negative reports from PPI, core CPI and CPI.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend inflection point

spxdaily

This week DOW led the weakness with a confirmed downtrend, but was the only one of our four main US indices to do so.  We would normally expect at least SPX to follow, but until that happens, markets remain at an inflection point.  As a result, we updated the charts to show our primary and alternate counts on SPX and DOW respectively.  Our primary count remains a subdividing Minor 3 wave in progress, with Minute i at the recent high.  We can count 5 waves up from the March low to a slightly failed double top.  Notice the failure is on an intraday basis, but the close is equal.  Minute ii is ongoing and may have found bottom with a nice reversal on Friday.

indudaily

Our alternate count is a subdivided Minor 2 wave, with Minute a at the March low, an irregular Minute b at the April high and Minute c in progress.  If DOW can sustain the reversal and hold above March lows, then this alternate count may be eliminated.  There is another variation of this alternate that’s on our watch list.  We will report on it in the future if/when price dictates.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned, we’re counting Minute i from the 2722 March low as 5 waves up to the slightly failed intraday top.  This suggests the Minute i impulse subdivided into 5 Micro waves 2852>2788>2954>2901>2948.  From there, Minute ii is underway and can be counted as 7 waves down which gives a double 3 pattern into a divergent low, 2898>2937>2863>2898>2836>2876>2825.  This signals possibility of a significant rally to follow.  Pending resolution of the inflection point, this could be just another b wave or the beginning of Minute iii.

Short term support is at the 2858 and 2835 pivots, 2825 and 2800.  Resistance is at 2900 and the 2884 and 2929 pivots.  The SPX 60-minute chart shows a positive divergence at today’s low and resulted in a 50-point rally.  The daily chart still shows price as oversold.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 5.8%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 2.4%.

The DJ World index lost 2.7%, and the NYSE lost 1.9%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.5%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 0.4%

Gold is in a downtrend but gained 0.3%%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 17%.

The USD is in an uptrend but lost 0.1%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Have a good week!

 

 

Posted in Updates | 797 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Brought to you by the OEW Private Group

May 4, 2019

A volatile week with a quantified pullback.  The SPX rose to a new recovery high on Monday at 2950 followed by a gap down opening on Tuesday and sell off to 2924.  Price quickly rallied off that low and made a new all-time high on Wednesday at 2954.  Sellers hit the market after the FOMC announcement with the markets closing on the low.  Selling continue on Thursday and reached 2901.  Friday saw a gap up on the NFP report with price holding into the close at 2945.

For the week, the SPX/NDX/NAS all gained 0.2%, and the DOW lost 0.2%.  The standout this week was the Russell 2000 which was up 1.4%.

Most economic reports were negative, including:  S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Chicago PMI, ADP Employment Change, construction spending, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and the ISM Services Index.  Positive reports were personal spending, consumer confidence, and the Non-Farm Payrolls Report.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

SPXwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

SPXdaily

We maintain our SPX wave count with the Minor 1 top at 2817 and Minor 2 bottom at 2722 with Minor 3 underway.  As expected, Minor 3 is subdividing with Minute i at 2852 and Minute ii at 2785 with Minute iii underway.  New all-time highs were hit per our expectation.

SHORT TERM

SPXhourly

We are counting the high at 2852 as Minute i and the low at 2785 as Minute ii.  The rally off the Minute ii low is subdividing into Micro waves with Micro 1 high at 2830, Micro 2 low at 2788, Micro 3 high at 2954 with Micro 4 tentatively ending at 2901.  Micro 5/Minute iii will lead to new highs in the coming days/weeks.

Short term support is at 2900 and the 2929 and 2884 pivots with resistance at the 2957 and 2995 pivots.  The SPX ended the week overbought on the 60-minute chart and above neutral on the daily chart.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) were up 1.2%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) were up 1.2%.

The DJ World index gained 0.3%, and the NYSE gained 0.4%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and were down 0.5%

Crude oil remains in an uptrend but lost 2.4%

Gold is in a downtrend and lost 1.3%%

Bitcoin is in an uptrend and gained 17%.

The USD is in an uptrend but lost 0.5%.

 

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Have a good week

 

Posted in Updates | 813 Comments

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

April 27, 2019

This week opened at SPX 2898 and made the low for the week at 2896 within the first hour.  The market then had a steady rally up to 2936 by Tuesday lunchtime, before drifting off slightly into close.  Wednesday morning saw a slight higher high at 2937 before a larger pullback of 24pts occurred into Thursday morning followed by a swift move back up to 2933.  Friday spent the day within Thursdays range until the last hour when it broke out to close at the weeks high of 2940.

For the week, the SPX gained 1.2%, NAS/NDX was up 1.78% but the DOW lost 0.06%

On the economic front, we saw an uptick in New Home Sales & GDP (Q1).  There were negative reports for Existing Home Sales & Core Durable Goods Orders.

Next week’s report will highlight the CB Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales, ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Meeting with FED Interest Rate Decision, Non Farm Payrolls and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index continues to improve to 1.2 (April 12th data).

ECRI

LONG TERM: Uptrend

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

SPXwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

We maintain our SPX wave count with the Minor 1 top at 2817 and Minor 2 bottom at 2722 with Minor 3 underway.  As expected, Minor 3 is subdividing with Minute i at 2852 and Minute ii at 2785 with Minute iii underway.  With NAZ and NDX already achieving all-time highs, SPX Minor 3 is expected to follow in the coming days/weeks.  This week the SPX found resistance at the 2929 pivot until the final hour and closed just 1pt off the all time high.

SPXdaily

SHORT TERM

We are counting the high at 2852 as Minute i and the low at 2785 as Minute ii.  The rally off the Minute ii low also appears to be subdividing into Micro waves as shown on the 60-minute SPX chart with Micro 3 still underway.  Since Micro 3 began at 2788 there hasn’t been a pullback larger than 26pts, typical resilient 3rd wave action.

SPXhourly

Short term support is at the 2929 and 2884 pivots with resistance at the 2957 and 2995 pivots.  The week finished with the daily RSI showing a negative divergence, and the hourly in oversold territory.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) were up 0.32%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) were up 0.11%.

The DJ World index gained 0.42%, and the NYSE gained 0.53%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and were up 0.56%

Crude oil remains in an uptrend but lost 1.2%

Gold is in a downtrend but was up 1%

Bitcoin is in an uptrend but lost 2.23%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.59%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

If you’d like to become a part of the OEW Group and learn OEW continue reading. If not happy trading!

Over the past four years we have been compiling additional verified and quantified observations in the various markets. As a result, the 2019 lesson plan has been expanded to thirty lessons, with nearly all real time charts.

Objective Elliott Wave, (OEW), is a quantitative approach to the Elliott Wave Theory. OEW is not textbook Elliott Wave. It is a proprietary technique that defines every significant wave within bull and bear markets quantitatively. All markets are driven by long term investor confidence cycles. When the cycle is positive a bull market unfolds, when negative a bear market. The OEW technique not only determines if a market is bullish or bearish, it also determines how far a market has progressed in its current cycle.

Once you learn OEW you will be able to quantitatively research the historical price performance of any asset class, or stock, and determine its current position within its overall long-term trend. Quantified waves never change. Then using shorter term charts, you will be able to determine good entry and exit price areas in the asset you are tracking. It is not complicated. Actually, you will be amazed, after some period of time and dedicated study, how easily you will be able to discern the waves as they unfold. OEW quantitatively identifies all the medium, and long-term waves that create bull and bear markets. Every one! We have been applying this technique, successfully, for nearly 40 years.

Over the years OEW analysis has led to some important projections in just the stock market alone. We projected the 1987 top and subsequent crash, called the Dec. 1987 low, the July 1990 top to the day, the 2000 top, the Oct. 2002 low, the Oct. 2007 top (in early Jan08), the Mar. 2009 bear market low nearly to the day, the 2016-2018 bull market (in mid-2016), and the recent bull market top in 2018.

If you are interested in learning how to do this type of analysis yourself, and joining our private OEW group, just contact me at JohnsonOEW@gmail.com for details. Best to your trading/investing.

Posted in Updates | 506 Comments

Update

Hope everyone’s week is going well.

OEW Group skipped the update last week due to the holidays and it being a relatively quiet market week.

I’m in the process of closing on our house and moving back to the east coast.

Everything behind the scenes is going well. We are all just busy.

Have a good rest of your week!

 

Posted in Updates | 71 Comments

Weekend Report

Good Morning.

Hope all is well. A few notes before the Weekend Report.

I’ve added a like feature and a rating system to the comments. Hopefully this helps reduce the bickering. Feel free to vote on things you appreciate and don’t appreciate. It’ll also show me what is “valued” content and what is not. As for previous post limit rule that keeps getting brought up. I do not have the time to count posts and scold people when they pass their post limit. I’m looking into some plugins to potentially help with that. The site will be evolving and changing and more features will be added as I have the time.  For those of you who are attempting to use my father as a weapon against me you will be immediately banned if it happens again. I will say this one more time. Having the comments open does nothing for me, them remaining open is only for you who comment here. Keep that in mind when picking fights with each other or me.

Be Kind and have a good week.

Thanks to the OEW Group for providing this weekend report!

Weekend Report – April 13, 2019

This week was largely a consolidation period with most of the indices making marginal new highs in choppy trade.  After a quick move down to 2881 on Monday morning, the SPX rallied to 2896 in the afternoon.  Tuesday saw a gap down and the weekly low made in the afternoon at 2873.  Price traded in range of 20 points on Wednesday and Thursday.  On Friday, the SPX gapped up and rose to 2911 on earnings and merger news.  The SPX closed the week at 2906.

For the week, the SPX/Dow gained 0.3% and the NAS/NDX was up 0.6%.

On the economic front, we saw an uptick in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, CPI, PPI and Core PPI.  There were negative reports for factory orders, JOLTS – job openings, and the University of Michigan Sentiment Index.

Next week’s report will highlight the Empire State Manufacturing report, industrial production, capacity utilization, retail sales, Fed’s Beige Book, and Leading Indicators.

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index continues to improve to -0.7 (April 5th data).

erciwkly

LONG TERM: Uptrend

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

We maintain our SPX wave count with the Minor 1 top at 2817 and Minor 2 bottom at 2722 with Minor 3 underway.  As expected, Minor 3 is subdividing with Minute i at 2852 and Minute ii at 2785 with Minute iii underway.  Minor 3 will extend higher to all time highs in the coming weeks.

spxdaily

SHORT TERM

We are counting the high at 2852 as Minute i and the low at 2785 as Minute ii.  The rally off the Minute ii low also appears to be subdividing into Micro waves as shown on the 60-minute SPX chart with Micro 3 still underway.

spxhourly

Short term support is at 2900 and the pivots of 2884 and 2858.  Resistance is at the 2929 and 2995 pivots.  Negative divergences exist on daily SPX charts. SPX hourly was reset with drop on Tuesday, when RSI moved below 30.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) were flat.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) were up 0.9%.

The DJ World index gained 0.4%, and the NYSE gained 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and were flat.

Crude oil remains in an uptrend and gained 0.8%.

Gold is in a downtrend and was flat.

Bitcoin is in an uptrend and gained 1.3%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.2%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | 389 Comments