One Year Later

A year ago today I lost my father and my best friend, everyone here lost their mentor and a friend. Dad and I spent the last 7 years of his life living together. Our households merged on a very snowy day in Feb those years back. I would’ve never thought they were to end so soon.

Like many of his generation COPD made his life difficult. My father was the type of man to overcome anything and everything. A car accident had shattered his leg in his 50s. He came back from it to be more physically fit than ever. Months of not being able to walk to walking miles. He had issues with depression and alcoholism that he was able to overcome and live a healthy, fruitful life. He turned to spiritualism to help him through the darkest times. Which many of you had conversations with him about. A lot of hardships made him the man he was. He pushed himself physically and mentally to be the best he could be. As much as life threw at him over the years he did the best that he could and overcame. In my mind he could overcome this and he’d have me there to help him.

My father was so proud to have his dream house, loyal dopey dog, his daughter and grandson with him for those last few years. He had just finished and posted updated lessons and had sent me off to the east coast a few days prior telling me “to find my dream home, don’t worry about anything else.” We were planning on moving back to the East Coast for better doctors for him and better schools for my son. On the way to his mother’s funeral the prior October when we entered a state I was trying to convince him was a good idea, 3 rainbows were huge and present. We both took it as a sign to continue on that path. The last email conversation I had with him was to hunt down a wine he hadn’t had in years to bring back with me with some Entenmann’s stuff we couldn’t get were we lived either.

I received the call the next day and hurried back. Dad went out on his own terms. Even quietly making the news. He was no stranger to news having been in Barron’s and on tv on multiple occasions in the late 80s early 90s. Later in life he turned down multiple speaking engagements and tv appearances. He liked his quiet life.

This year has been the hardest of my life. Everything had started to unravel and I found myself lost without him. In the beginning I just auto-piloted everything while basically still in shock. I tried to do what I thought was right not considering myself at all but, at the end of the day there was just too many balls to juggle and I was trying to live 2 lives at once. Things started to fall and with that my mental state. I’m the type to either do things 100% or not at all. After things had started to calm down and stabilize around June of last year I fell into a crippling depression. I’m working my way out of it now.  For everyone who has been so supportive and sent me kind wishes I thank you. You can never know how much it all means to me. For those of you who threw hate, and assumptions (someone actually accused me of thinking I was above my father’s followers recently in an email smh) due to my lack of responses and participation. For those of you who threw the negativity at me, I hope you find peace and happiness for you are in desperate need of.

I want to thank everyone for your patience with me in the last year. I wish you all health and happiness in the coming years.

For the time being the blog will remain open for reference and educational purposes, however the weekend reports will not for the foreseeable future. OEW lessons will continue for the time being. I love talking with students and their excitement, positive attitude, and seeing my father’s work continue on helping people better their lives means a lot to me. Lessons are a requirement to have access to the private group which remains active and ongoing. Lesson advert he posted from last year please email me at johnsonoew@gmail.com if interested in taking lessons.

In the coming year I’m going to dive into his notes of spiritual teachings. I want to pull them together and offer them in some sort of format for those who would like them. Stay tuned for that.

A year later I truly understand what his last words to me really were. I’m undertaking that journey now, wish me luck.

Over the weekend I asked members from the group if anyone wanted to say something publicly on the blog.

“Don’t be dismayed by good-byes. A farewell is necessary before you can meet again. And meeting again, after moments or lifetimes, is certain for those who are friends. – Richard Bach”  ~ Wesley

“Looking for an edge in investments may draw one first to OEW, but what drew one to Tony ultimately was his heart and the example he set for his students and on “the board” for patience, generosity, and humility. These live on in his students and cause them to pause as they interact with one another in the exchange of ideas and preservation of the principles of OEW from which further insights might be gained. ” ~Joe

“Tony, I will remember you always as one of the most inquisitive, analytical, thoughtful, & kind people I have ever known.

You graciously shared your life’s work with the world & greatly enhanced my ability to study the factors influencing global financial markets as well as the collective investor consciousness.

Your quantitative approach to objectively interpret the Elliott Wave Principle remains your OEW legacy.  However it was your subtle sense of humor, compassion, & ability to communicate with curious minds across any subject in search of greater understanding that I will forever appreciate and seek to emulate in my own life.

On a personal note my Mom passed of pancreas cancer 2 short weeks after you & for that reason February will forever be a month of remembrance for my two greatest teachers.

Namaste,” ~ Ryan

“Tony you certainly were a rare and special kind of person who shared your life’s work to help the lives of others.  You taught me to be a successful trader improving my financial life but more importantly you taught me to be a better person.  I use to be the kind of person that would never of shared his findings or tried to help people like you have done but I see now that those actions are what really gives fulfillment to ones life and I have you to thank for that.  You will always be remembered as my mentor.” ~Rich

“They say the teacher will come when the student is ready and that was certainly the case with Tony for me.  I needed a framework to help streamline my investments and a random tip from a colleague sent me to the OEW blog.  It didn’t take long before I realized that this approach was different from the subjective/changeable E-wave that I had known for years.  I powered through the lessons, looking forward to learning more in real-time.  Unfortunately, my time with Tony was cut short, but his approach and guidance through the Lessons have had a profound impact on the way I view and approach the markets now.  I’m glad I found you when I did.  Many thanks, Maestro Tony.” ~Greg

“RIP Tony. We miss you!” ~ Kele

“RIP Tony Caldaro.

You were the BEST of the best!”~Spyridon

“For years and years I have read your analyzes and your blog. You had become a beacon. Your legacy is enormous for the OEW group and I am grateful for the veterans for this. You would definitely be proud of them. There are many teachings. Thanks to you my trading has become extraordinarily profitable. Your extraordinary kindness and availability are forever teaching us all… miss you very much always Tony.” ~Marco

“It’s the smartest investment of my life to attend Tony’s 1:1 tutoring in 2018, and there is no “one of” in front of it.” ~ Simon

“Tony absolutely changed my view of the market and how it worked. He was a person I never personally met, but felt like I knew him all my life. He is, and will always be missed.” ~Cowboy

“I followed Tony on the public site for two years before contacting him to start the lessons in Sept 2018. He helped me complete my rehab from EWI! He was such a kind soul and his impact on humanity if far greater than his impact on market analysis, as evident by the opinions of all you folks who knew him much better than I. And even more evident by these experienced, similarly minded (and hearted) folks that are continuing his work. Thank you Tony. Thank you OEW advocates.” ~Ed

“Tony: I started to read your blog in 2016, at the end of that year, I decided to take the class. It was one of the best decisions I made in my life. You taught me so much, not just how to invest, but to become a better person. Although we never met, I feel you’re like an old friend.One year has past, and we miss you very much. We will always remain your faithful and proud students our whole lives. You’re the best!”~ Elaine

“Your father was an exceptional man, full of kindness and compassion for all he met and spoke to within the group, ultimately, he was an inspiration and I hope to emulate his outlook on life towards others even more so in the years to come. Your dad always liked too sign off with a smile, so hear goes =) ” ~Alistair

 

Love only yourself, or Love yourself and all others.

It’s a choice. Make the choice!

 

 

 

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

December 21, 2019

Last Monday started with a sharp rally on positive trade news. After closing at 3169 the previous week, SPX jumped to 3198 and then spent the rest of Monday through Wednesday churning between 3191 and 3198 amid pre-impeachment uncertainty.  Thursday saw the market move out of the consolidation range to the upside in a breakout move that carried to 3226 on Friday.  SPX finished the week at 3221, another all-time closing high for the day and the week.

For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.65%/1.14 and the NDX/NAZ 2.25%/2.18%.

Economic reports continued to come in quite positive, all above jobs and housing data.  Job openings were up 7.3m vs 7m, and weekly jobless claims came in 234k vs 252k.  The constant improvement in housing starts (annualized 1,365k in Nov. vs 1,323k in Oct. vs 478k at April 2009 low), accompanied by a new yearly high in home builder sentiment (HMI 76 vs 71 in Nov.), and a decline in existing home sales by 1.7% in November because of low inventory levels could be a sign, that the housing market has bottomed.  Further positive or inline reports: industrial production (1.1% in Nov. vs. 1.08% in Oct.); capacity utilization (77.3% vs. 76.6% in Oct.); Empire State Manufacturing Survey (3.5 vs 2.9 Nov); leading indicators unchanged; Michigan Consumer Sentiment (99.3 vs 96.8 in Nov.); PCE index (0.2%; ex food and energy 0.1%); Q3 GDP unchanged at 2.1%, even though Atlanta Fed forecasts Q4 GDP at 2.3%.  WLEI was flat at 2.19%, but Philadelphia FED Business Outlook came in 0.3 vs 10.4 in November.

Coming Christmas week is light on economic data, with new home sales released on Monday, durable goods orders on Tuesday, and jobless claims and investor confidence on Thursday. Merry Christmas all!

The slow but steady improvement of the economy is reflected by the WLEI Index, which has been rising for a while and stayed at 2.2 for two weeks in a row.

LONG TERM: Uptrend extension continues

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  Primary I concluded in mid-2015 with Primary II concluding in early 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway since February 2016 with the Major wave 1 high occurring in October 2018 and Major 2 bottoming in December 2018.  Our preferred long-term count is posted on the SPX Weekly chart, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September Micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred, ushering in a series of potential wave 3 moves higher.  With this weeks continued move to new all time highs we feel the market has gone high enough and continues to look impulsive enough to eliminate the bearish count we’ve previously carried on the DOW.

MEDIUM TERM:  Uptrend extends

SPX reached yet another all-time high at 3226 this week, as it broke out of the inflection point that we’ve been discussing since the last significant pullback early this month.  SPX gapped over 3206 on Friday, which solidified another subdivision higher for the Micro wave 3 uptrend that’s been ongoing from the early October low at 2856.  As a result, our medium term status has been updated and the daily chart was rescaled to reflect seven qualified subdivisions, which suggests this uptrend has at least a couple more waves to go before it’s complete.  The December rally from 3070 has gained 156 points in 13 trading days without a meaningful pullback.  This price trajectory is very similar to that achieved at the beginning of this uptrend.  Micro wave 3 now exceeds the nominal target for an extended third wave at 1.618x ratio to Micro wave 1, which sets up 3250 and 3380 as next likely targets for completion.  There are several possibilities to consider near term, including additional subdivisions or a small third wave, so we’re waiting for further price action to sort that out.  A retrace back to overlap 3154 would warn of another subdivision, while below 3070 would likely end this uptrend.  This extension also suggests Minute wave iii to go beyond the 3300 target previously reported.  Next target for that is 2x Minute-i, which projects above 3400.  As mentioned last week, some of our members are watching NAZ for a possibility that the December rally is a fifth wave, which could signal an earlier ending.

SHORT TERM:

Our short term count was updated to reflect changes discussed in the previous section.  We have five qualified waves up from 2856 to 3154, with a large third wave, and that entire sequence now becomes Nano wave i subdivided with Pico waves 1 thru 5.  From there, we have Nano wave ii at 3070, followed by Nano wave iii ongoing to 3226.  We’re watching to see if this potential Nano third wave can reach our next pivot at 3256, which would be further confirmation for this wave count.   Nominal target for this wave structure would be third equal to first, which gives about 3370.  However, it’s possible that a small third wave could stop short of that and limit the upside for this pattern.  We’re waiting for the next qualified pullback to help clarify the picture.  SPX blew through the negative divergence last week, reached extremely overbought at the high and finished the week just inside the neutral zone.

Short term support is at the 3210 and 3180 pivots, while resistance is at the 3256 and 3278 pivots.

GLOBAL MARKETS:

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Due to the holidays there will most likely be a one to two week break in the reports. 

Happy Holidays and Have a good week!

 

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

December 14, 2019

SPX closed Dec. 6 at 3146 after a weekly high at 3151.  This week opened unchanged, but then drifted lower in front of the Wednesday Fed meeting.  Tuesday and Wednesday ranged between 3127 and 3143 before exploding higher on Thursday’s open in reaction to renewed US-China trade optimism.  After reaching a new all-time high at 3176, profit-taking and nervousness dropped the market back to retest old high 3151 before bouncing once again.  Trade talks, UK elections and impeachment proceedings generated volatile action that carried the market to a new all-time high at 3182 on the Friday open before finishing the week at 3169.

For the week, SPX/DOW gained 0.73/0.43%, while NDX/NAZ gained 1.08/0.91%

No big surprises on the economic front.  As expected, the FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 1.5-1.75%.  The real news came during the press conference, when FED Chair Powell signaled to keep rates unchanged in 2020 even if the 2% inflation target should be met or slightly exceeded for a short period of time.

Most economic reports were stable or moderately to the upside: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (104.7 vs 102.4); CPI (0.3% vs 0.4%), up 2.1% YoY, and core CPI (0.2%) in line with expectations; PPI unchanged; import prices up 0.2%, but down 1.3% YoY, and business inventories increased 0.2% in October vs -0.1% in September. Weekly jobless claims though, rose to 252k from 203k last week, and retail sales declined slightly to 0.2% vs 0.3% last month.

The slow but steady improvement of the economy is reflected by the WLEI Index, which has been rising for a while and made a yearly high last week at 2.4%.  It is now at 2.2%.

Next week’s reports are: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Housing Market Index, housing starts, industrial production, capacity utilization, JOLTS, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia FED Business Outlook, leading indicators, existing home sales, GDP, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, corporate profits, personal income, consumer spending and Kansas City Manufacturing Index.

 

SECULAR CYCLES:  Revisiting 100-years of OEW by Tony Caldaro

A classic chart, just as a great painting, will stand the test of time.  Such is the case with the 100-year DOW chart Tony Caldaro posted here on the public blog on October 21, 2017.  The chart reveals, like any masterpiece, many levels of information.  Primarily, it shows his Objective Elliott Wave count for over 100 years of stock market price and time.  Second, it identifies a Saeculum.  A Saeculum is a long-term cycle that has existed throughout history.  It lasts on average about 75-80 years and consists of four phases or turnings, each one about 15-20 years.  Notice these secular cycles have averaged about 17 years each going back to a Grand Super Cycle top in 1929.  All bull and bear market cycles within these secular periods have been fully quantified by objective analytic methods, with no exceptions.  This is the essence of OEW.  For simplicity of presentation, the chart summarizes bull and bear cycles down to Primary scale only.

Tony was both, knowledgeable about the Saeculum and had his own method of analyzing the stock market, which he coined Objective Elliott Wave (OEW).  One of Tony’s master strokes was to identify the turnings of the Saeculum using the stock market via his OEW approach.  His conclusion was that in February of 2016 the stock market made a Primary wave II low at SPX 1810, which he also identified to be an inflection point and the beginning of the next turning in the Saeculum.  Tony unified the Saeculum and the stock market via OEW.  Thus, in 2017 when most believed the economy and stock market were late cycle, Tony forecasted the stock market was just beginning an OEW Primary III wave which should last about 17 years (the length of the previous OEW Primary III wave) and coincide with a Saeculum growth cycle.  It is a chart and forecast that has survived the test of time.  At OEW we continue to monitor and hopefully build on the work of Tony Caldaro.  We have recently observed that the previous Primary III wave, which began in 1982, was about 25 years after the Baby Boom birth rate high of 1957.  The next cycle, suggest the current OEW Primary III wave began in 2016 about 25 years after the Millennial peak birth rate of 1989.

What does all this mean?  If our beloved maestro’s thesis is correct, and we think it is, then it projects DOW 100K by 2032/33.

The link to Tony’s original Weekend Report post, you will find below.

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/10/21/weekend-update-627/

LONG TERM: Uptrend extension continues

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  Primary I concluded in mid-2015 with Primary II concluding in early 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway since February 2016 with the Major wave 1 high occurring in October 2018 and Major 2 bottoming in December 2018.  Our preferred long-term count is posted on the SPX Weekly chart, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September Micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred, ushering in a series of potential wave 3 moves higher.  However, we’re still waiting to see if the current trend continues to make new highs, rising enough to not overlap the previous uptrend high, during the next downtrend.  We maintain our bearish alternate count as posted on DOW in the public chart list, though its probability continues to drop as the market goes higher.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend testing possible extension

SPX continued to rally off the previous week’s low and achieved another all-time high at 3183 by early Friday morning.  Our 3180 pivot became both a magnet and stop sign for the price action the week.  This gives the second largest rally for this uptrend of 113 points, without a meaningful pullback.   We can now count seven qualified subdivisions from the downtrend low at 2856.  This latest rally puts pressure on a potential breakout of the inflection point mentioned last week.  We’re still waiting for a break above 3200 to signal an extension of this uptrend.  Until then, our wave status remains unchanged.  Some in our group have suggested an alternate analysis such that Nano wave iv (as shown) was too small to be considered and should be replaced with Nano wave iv at 3070.  This different view suggests the uptrend may be working on the fifth significant wave up off the low.  There’s some merit to this idea as the NAZ may be signaling a similar characteristic, however we’re sticking with our existing metrics until further wave action clears up the picture.  SOX reversed this week to a new uptrend while TRAN remains in a confirmed downtrend, another sign the trend may be strengthening.  Either way, our target for Minute wave iii remains unchanged at 3300 by early next year.

SHORT TERM:

Our short term count continues to align with the medium term subdivisions.  We can count five qualified waves up from 2856 to 3154 with a large third wave, which gives a nice impulsive structure to that point.  From there, we have two more waves, 84 points down 3070, followed by 113 points back up to 3183.  It’s unclear whether the recent rally is Nano wave b of an ongoing Micro wave 4 or the beginning of a third wave extension.  Our upper limit for Nano wave b would be 1.618x Nano wave a, which gives 3206.  If/when that region is breached, we will update our wave count accordingly.  SPX ended the week with a negative short term divergence, which suggests another pullback may be on the horizon.

Short term support is at the 3156 and 3121 pivots, while resistance is at the 3180 and 3210 pivots.

GLOBAL MARKETS:

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

December 7, 2019

SPX closed last week at 3141 after making a new high at 3154 into the Thanksgiving holiday.  Negative trade news gapped the market lower on Monday, consolidating in the 3110/3120 range. Tuesday saw another opening gap lower, testing 3070 in the first hour before steadily grinding higher into midweek to recapture the 3110/3120 zone. Friday’s robust employment figures drove the market out of congestion to retest the highs, reaching 3151 before finishing the week at 3146.

SPX gained 0.16%/DOW lost 0.13% while NDX/NAZ lost 0.08%/0.10% this week.

On the economic front, the following reports surprised positively or met expectations: Manufacturing PMI 52.6; Services PMI 51.6; weekly jobless claims 203k; factory orders 0.3%; nonfarm payrolls 266k vs 156k, much better than in October; unemployment rate 3.5%; whole sale inventories 0.1% and Consumer Sentiment Index 99.2 up from 96.6 in November. On the downside: ISM Manufacturing Index 48.1%, ADP employment report 67k vs 121k in October, ISM Non-manufacturing Index 53.9% and average hourly earnings 0.2%.

Next week’s highlight is the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.  Other than that, we get NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, CPI, PPI, weekly jobless claims, retail sales, import prices and business inventories.

 

LONG TERM: Uptrend extension likely underway

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  Primary I concluded in mid-2015 with Primary II concluding in early 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway since February 2016 with the Major wave 1 high occurring in October 2018 and Major 2 bottoming in December 2018.  Our preferred long-term count is posted on the SPX Weekly chart, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September Micro wave 1 uptrend high at 3020 has occurred, ushering in a series of potential wave 3 moves higher.  However, we’re still waiting to see if the current trend continues to make new highs, rising enough to not overlap the previous uptrend high, during the next downtrend.  Until then, we maintain our low probability bearish alternate count as posted on DOW in the public chart list.  Note this week how the 13 EMA on the weekly time frame provided support for Thursday and Friday’s strong rally.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend inflection point

After posting another all-time high during the previous week at 3154, SPX started this week/month with a sharp pullback to 3070.  This ~2.7% decline was the largest counter trend move since October and sets up some interesting possibilities.  The pictured scenario sees 3154 as a completed wave, either Micro wave 3, or a potential Nano wave i from the downtrend low at 2856 in early October.  The Micro wave 3 scenario suggests the current uptrend may be at or close to completion, while the Nano wave i scenario suggests a very bullish extension may be in play.  Consequently, we’ve updated the medium term status as an inflection point.  This inflection point will likely remain until either a downtrend is confirmed, or SPX can rally above 3200 or so.  A few indices such as SOX and TRAN are in confirmed downtrends, which could be a warning sign for the more bearish medium term outlook.  Either way, we continue to project a bull market into 2020 as part of the Minute wave iii subdivision that’s been underway since the 2822 low in early August.  Our nominal target for Minute iii sometime early next year remains unchanged at 3300.  Once the inflection point is resolved, we will update our medium term projection.

SHORT TERM:

The short term count tracks closely with the medium term subdivisions.  We can count five qualified waves up from 2856 to 3154 with a large third wave, which gives a nice impulsive structure to that point.  Nano wave v for that sequence fell short of our 3180 target, but was pretty close to fib ratio 0.618x Nano wave i, and stopped right near our 3156 pivot.  From there, we have the largest pullback for the entire trend at 84 points to the 3070 low.  This is typical for a subsequent retrace to exceed the prior fourth wave when the fifth is smaller than the first.  SPX set up a positive divergence off that low on Tuesday, which preceded the strong rally into Friday to another qualified wave at 3151.   Given the inflection point mentioned in the previous section, we’re counting the 3070 low as either Nano wave a of an ongoing Micro wave 4, or possible Nano wave ii which would suggest a rescale of the prior small waves down one degree.  SPX reached extremely overbought level at the highs this week.

Short term support is at the 3121 and 3105 pivots, and resistance is at the 3156 and 3180 pivots.

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Happy Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving to those celebrating it!

Due to the holiday week there will be no weekend report this week.