SHORT TERM: choppy day after yesterday’s high, DOW +36
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.4%, mostly Japan. European markets opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 1628, one point above yesterday’s close. Right after the open FED chairman Bernanke’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20130510a.htm. The market bounced around in the opening half hour, rising to SPX 1630, dipping to 1626, then rising to 1632 by 10:00. After that the choppiness continued. The market dipped to SPX 1625 by 10:30, rallied to 1630 by 11:30, and then pulled back again. Around noon the SPX hit 1624, and then started to rally again. At 2:00 the Treasury reported an inline surplus: $112.9 bln vs. $59.1 bln. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1634, and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.75%. Bonds lost 20 ticks, Crude dropped 55 cents, Gold fell $12, but the USD was higher. Medium term support rises back to the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Last night the FED reported an increase in the M1 multiplier: 0.844 vs. 0.812. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 57.3% vs. 57.1%.
After yesterday’s new bull market high at SPX 1635, the market pulled back to 1623 for the first significant pullback since Minute wave iii began at SPX 1581. Today the market traded within that range for the entire day. After nearly retesting yesterday’s low, however, the market ended the day/week on a positive note: rallying into the close and finishing the week one point under the SPX 1635 bull market high. If the SPX clears the high next week, there should be higher prices ahead.
Short term support rises to the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the SPX 1658-1675 range and the 1680 pivot. Short term momentum did not make it to oversold and ended the week slightly overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1617. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
I am normally quite a pessimistic person, and just as cautious as the yen -guy. Dont rise my voice until discrepancy between valuation and fundamentals reaches the extreme. And i dont very often advocate stocks on this forum. However my PSDV has been overwhelmed by interest from a large pharma, started to sell their product in 2 european countries and is awaiting FDA descision for the same product that is already approved in Europe. At a facile market cap of 65 mill it has to be be the most obvious bargains in the pharma nanocap space !
2nd stock is ESEA, a box and dry bulk comp that is technically and financially as sound as it gets.
2 good stocks for the next decade.
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You write long term bull market; I respond, no, no, and no.
The global reflation trade that began in August 2012, with Mario Draghis’ OMT coming on line is over, through and done.
In dispensation, that is in the administration plan of God for the fullness and completion of every age, era, epoch and time period, presented in Ephesians 1:10, Jesus Christ, the Son of God, is terminating the pursuit of yield, which created the very last upward burst in fiat wealth in Liberalism’s age of investment choice.
Authoritarianism’s age of diktat is commencing, as the wold is pivoting out of Peak National Sovereignty, Peak Seigniorage, that is peak moneyness, Peak Yield, Peak Credit, AGG, Peak Wealth, VT, Peak World Major Currencies, DBV, Peak Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, and Peak Prosperity. Jesus Christ has completed the task given to him by the Father for producing Peak Everything in Liberalism’s age of investment choice.
At the hands of the son of God, Inflationism is turning to Destructionism.
On Friday, May 10, 2013, competitive currency devaluation entered its second day this week on the death of credit, as is seen in Aggregate Credit, AGG, trading parabolically lower. Distrust in the ability of debtors to pay back creditors has finally come of age, as investors rally World Stocks, VT, to a blow off market top. Bill Gross, manager of Pimco’s monster Pimco’s Total Return Fund ($292 billion under management) tweeted correctly today stating “The secular 30-yr bull market in bonds likely ended 4/29/2013”
Individual currencies traded lower again today; these included the Swiss Franc, FXF, -1.0, the Indian Rupe, ICN, 1.0, the Japanese Yen, FXY, -0.9, the Brazilian REAl, BZF, -0.7, the Australian Dollar, FXA, -0.7, the Swedish Krona, FXS, -0.7, the British Pound Sterling, FXB, -0.6, the Euro, FXE, -0.4, and the Canadian Dollar, FXC, -0.3. Gold, GLD, is both a currency and a commodity, it traded 0.8% lower, which turned Commodities, DBC, 0.5%, lower.
Debt deflation, that is currency deflation, commenced the week ending May 10, 2013, most notably causing individual currencies the Austalian Dollar, FXA, to trade lower, and driving up the interest rate on Global National Treasury Debt, BWX, which includes US Government Debt, GOVT, in particular the Interest Rate on the benchmark US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, which rose to 1.90%, which in turn induced the debt laden Electric Utilities, XLU, to turn lower; investors had been hotly pursuing these invesments because of their high yield, but chasing of yield ended as bond vigilantes called interest rates higher acrosss the board, which turned Aggregate Credit, AGG, lower.
The world central banks’ monetary policies of Global ZIRP, have finally turned money good investments, bad. A case in point is Australia’s Westpac Banking, WBK; in contrast, currency carry trade endowed, Lloyds Bank, LYG, rose strongly in a Global ZIRP grand finale finish. Failing of Global ZIRP, stimulated investors to derisk out of Nation Investment in Australia, EWA; in contrast Malayasia, EWM, rose strongly on Global ZIRP cool aid. And souring Global ZIRP, in particular the debt dynamics of Australia Dividends, AUSE, turned this investment lower, while investors pursued Pharmaceuticals, PJP, to its zenith. Another example of investors derisking on excessive credit policies, is the trade lower in Japanese Treasury Bonds, as seen in their inverse, JGBS, trading higher, (as the 10-year government bond yield jumped 13 bps to the highest level since February), in contrast Japan, EWJ, and Japan Small Caps, JSC, rallied higher.
At the first of the year, on fears of global growth slowing and corporate profits falling, investors derisked out ot the Emerging Markets, EEM, in particular Peru, EPU, and its Copper Mining, COPX, Southern Peru Copper Corporation, SCCO, as is seen in their combined chart.
Yet, Kuroda Abenomics, spurred investment in SNE, KUB, NMR, IX, IIJI, SMFG, MTU, ATE, NTT, as is seen in their combined chart.
Peru and Japan are polar opposites in Liberalism’s wildcat finance, a Doug Noland term, with rewards going to short sellers of the former, and investors in the latter. Jesus Christ operating through Liberalism’s Schemes, such as leveraged buyouts, currency carry trade investment and moral hazard, has produced investment gains to those exercising wise discernment in investment choice.
As of the week ending May 10, 2010, He fully completed the dispensation, that is the economic and political plan of God, Ephesians 1:10, for Liberalism’s era of investment choice producing prosperity. And He is successfully introducing Authoritarianism’s age of diktat producing austerity, which will be characterized by wildcat governance, where sovereigns and seigniors, bite, rip and tear one another apart in the desperate attempt to be the top dog ruler and banker, who operate in Authoritarianism’s Schemes of new taxes, bank deposit bailins, capital controls, and labyrinthian austerity measures.
Barry Grey of WSWS writes The task is not to “occupy” Wall Street; it is to shut it down, redirect the vast resources that are squandered in the operations of this gigantic gambling casino to meeting social needs, and take the banks and corporations out of private hands so they can be run democratically for the benefit of society.
I respond, that Jesus Christ is busy chissling out the tombstones for the Banker Regimes’ Asset Managers, such as BLK, WDR, EV, STT, WETF, AMG, IVZ, and is weaving the banners of sovereignty for the Beast Regimes’s nannycrats such as Olli Rehn, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, and Michel Barnierm. And He will not finish His endeavors until all current forms of political and economic life are terminated and every man, woman, and child on planet earth is yoked into regional governance, totalitarian collectivism, and debt servitude as seen in Revelatin 13:1-4.
Emerging Market Infrastructure, EMIF, had been a massive carry trade darling under Global ZIRP, it turned Emerging Markets, EEM, lower, all on Emerging market Currencies, CEW, trading lower.
Electric Utilities, XLU, closed the week sharply lower on a steepening 10 30 US Sovereign Debt Yield Curve, as is seen in the Steepener ETF, STPP, steepening and the Intgerest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, closing at 1.90%.
Mortgage REITS, REM, traded strongly lower, as Aggregate Credit, AGG, failed for the second time in two weeks, this time on falling individual currencies. Notable fallers included BWX, ZROZ, EDV, TLT, MBB, MUB, GOVT, PICB, BLV, LQD, EMB, UJB, and JNK. The Global Credit Bubble has finally burst.
With stocks, VT, Nation Investment, EFA, Small Cap Nation Invesment, IFSM, and Global Producers, FXR, peaking higher this week, and individual currencies, such as the Australian Dollar, FXA, and Aggregate Credit, AGG, trading lower, Liberalism’s peak money, peak wealth and peak prosperity has been achieved.
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TICK data is right back down and BOUNCED. So looks like more upside early next week. WOW!
THE SPX weekly chart looks so strong => http://bit.ly/18AhE1G …bears are getting creamed on.
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Fascination Street, roadmap for monday, 2013/05/13:
http://standardpoor.wordpress.com
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-10/hilsenrath-tapering-article-out?page=1
Thank you for this blog .Your work is wonderful…..This reminds me when companies release terrible numbers on a Friday after the close. The algos would have crushed the market if this came out during the day. There is no positive spin on this !!!!
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Nice FEDEX-it plan
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$SPX pic.twitter.com/n7VA3Fr0T0
I think all the downside levels just became very relevant
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Have lots of Bull(s) here! (It’s the best I can do after a week of work and sick one day, so laugh!) I don’t know what will happen from one day to the next, but view sites in addition to this one (which is my favorite).
Here’s an interesting view: http://doctorboom.blogspot.com
I know, I know, I like this kid. (Anyone under 55 is a kid to me, sorry.) He has a unique perspective. Something to keep you busy until Tony’s Weekend Update comes out.
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The RUT tagged 953.86 on March 15 then consolidated sideways and corrected down to 898.40 on April 18 — that’s a correction of 55.46 points (5.8%) over a period of five weeks. From the low of April 18, RUT has advanced 76.62 points (8.5%).
For the RUT, I believe there is some probability that Intermediate iv is complete and we are now in Minute iii of Minor 1 of Intermediate v or in Minor 3 of Intermediate v. As always, this is just my opinion and I welcome your corrections and your feedback.
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