SHORT TERM: DOW makes new bull market high, DOW +69
Overnight the Asian markets ended flat. European markets opened lower but closed +0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the Trade deficit was reported slightly lower: -$42.0 bln vs -$42.9 bln. The market opened opened one point above yesterday’s close at SPX 1430. Then pulled back to SPX 1429 before starting to rally. At 11:30 the SPX hit 1438, one point below yesterday’s bull market high, and then began to pullback. Heading into the close the SPX touched 1432 around 3:30, then closed at 1434.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude added 45 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow, Export/Import prices at 8:30 then Wholesale inventories at 10:00. Also the FED starts its two day FOMC meeting.
The market opened relatively flat this morning, rallied to within 1 point of the bull market high, (the DOW made a new high), then without a good showing from the Tech sector eased back into the close. The SOX, for example, has not made a new uptrend high since mid-August, and AAPL has been in pullback mode since early yesterday. Yesterday’s SPX 1439 high does look like the end of Minute wave iii, and today’s SPX 1429 low the end of Minute iv. However, the market did not close high enough to rule out a retest, or even a pullback to short term support.
Support for the SPX remains at 1422/27 and 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and 1463/64. Short term momentum rose from yesterday’s oversold level and spend most of the day around neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1412 with the swing level now around 1424. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Thanks Tony, interesting day tomorrow,
Cheers/Roald
Hi Tony, today’s action is quite similar to an “ending diagonal”, if correct, should that not occour in an ending wave 5 of a larger degree of a -b – c movement ? Do you have this alternative from the 4th of June ?
By the way – thanks for one of the best EW bloggs I have reviewed, including comments from followers.
BR/Roald
Hi Roald,
Thanks we appreciate it.
We had an alternate count, but the DOW recently clear the highs and it was eliminated.
The choppy action at the highs is either distribution or uncertainty.
Since this rally is a Minor wave 5 from SPX 1397 it could be completing with an equal/higher high than 1439.
Any major pullback from here would be considered Int. wave iv with a completed Intermediate iii from SPX 1309.
The upper 1390′s should be good support before Intermediate v gets underway.
cheers!
tony
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yeO0gqyxn6s/UFC68ynabeI/AAAAAAAAC2M/sk3CGa20RwI/s1600/120912+CRB.jpg
…this should be good for European and Global stocks.
Thanks Tony.
thanks Fiona
IBM Time Ratio 161.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/09/ibm-time-ratio-1618.html
Looks very wedgy up here to me. I would expect a minor pullback soon.
EURUSD Price Ratio 61.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/09/eurusd-price-ratio-618.html
re: insider buying…I am not sure how useful this chart is, copmared to other data that everyone might have, cuz this ETF has been thinly traded so far, but here’s one way to track it : Direxion All Cap.Insider Sentiment Shrs http://screencast.com/t/oyaZVjxov0
CB – I track the insider ratio chart in Barrons. I’ve tried to post the chart but it won’t let me – or I don’t know what I’m doing !
Thanks Tommyboys. Yes, you’ve got the one we should follow, I think. It would be good to take a look at it. If you want to download that free sftwr. from Jing.com that would let you copy what you have on ur screen. (caution copy rights, though)
Maybe we can call Igor to the rescue – he knows somegood tricks
http://www.techsmith.com/ link to Jing if anyone feels like experimenting with it.
Here you go:
http://online.barrons.com/media/b-insider.gif
Igor, thanks.
Yes Tony….was looking for the link…markethighsandlows….on your blog as you stated it was free to those who read your blog.
thank scottycj1 for offering
excuse me
modyfikation, 2510 instead of 2560
2340 and 2510 for Primary V
Best trading
sk
Stan,
Took a closer look.
While your numbers for the first wave up from SPX 667 do not match mine.
I did notice an interesting relationship.
Int. one was 667-956, and 1.618 times Int. one = SPX 1337.
Just 2% shy of the Primary I 1370 high.
The recent Int. one was 1075-1293, and 1.618 times Int. one = 1512.
Another 2% shy would suggest a Primary III high around 1542.
Based on my take I expect, or what is more convenient, I will put especial attention to the levels
1850 for Primary III
2340 and 2560 for Primary V
The calculation is based on a principle (if it is and work) that the answer for possible range of rally is in wave one and wave two. Respectively to the degree of wave. It is strange but this is the reason that I am looking for support of that idea.
Best trading
sk
Stan … will review further
Hi Tony,
When is the iphone 5 presentation ?
I found it
http://live.cnet.com/Event/CNETs_Apple_event_live_blog_Wednesday_September_12
2 hrs later…
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will probably forgo announcing a third round of large-scale asset purchases today, and is more likely to wait until September to unveil plans to buy $600 billion in housing and government debt, according to median estimates of economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
“Bernanke will leave the door open,” Larry Kantor, head of research at Barclays Capital, said on Bloomberg Television’s City Central. “He doesn’t want to disappoint market expectations too much but I don’t see the Fed making any move at all this week.”
ahhh Larry Kantor… my old boss!
Can you comment this count? It is my take of S&P500
According to this take we have as below
Major 1 – 833
Major 2 – 779,8
Major 3 – 1219,8
Major 4 – 1010,9
Major 5 – 1370,6 = Primary I
Applying Fibonacci Retracement tool
Major 1 = 666,8/833 = 166,2 applying to this rally Fibo and multiplying or magnifying retracement we can get level (almost exactly) 1370,6 what is the top of Primary I.
Major 2 = 833/779,8 = 53,2 applying to this drop Fibo and multiplying or magnifying retracement we can get level (almost exactly) 1370,6 what is the top of Primary I.
My question. Is it working here a kind principle or just accidental coincidence?
Best trading
sk
Hi Stan,
You may have stumbled upon an internal fibonacci relationship between waves of differing degrees.
Question: Based upon these relationships, what would be your expectation for Primary III?
Tony,
If Bernanke doesn’t announce QE3 as expected on Thursday, how you think the market would react?
mkbull … disappointed, like refusing to give a kid the candy they want
With help from the shorters, the target for the first move up is around 2600-2700
http://scharts.co/P1P4eZ
I am ready for market crash. All world market is now at level where many have reached close to the top together even sectorally also. And big news is around the corner.
Since everyone expecting positive news, there are speculative long positions which may wind very quickly even in small bad news.
My view is very big Bad news is just around the corner.
This is stealth mass sentiment…everyone still living in 2008.
think i agree with you there tommy. that said, i think people and institutions own more equities than their sentiment might indicate. reluctant longs, as it were. i feel like it’s hard to trade sentiment these days because of that – you can’t rely on consistency between sentiment and positioning
Insider buying bolted right back into bullish territory last week. Pullback’s never ruled out we should be considerably higher by yearend. Most blogs are shorting at the 1440 area. Nobody wants this market higher. Everyone hates The Fed and feel its anti-American to add liquidity etc… These strong emotions say nothing about what the markets may do…and of course fear sells so hate away! Astro indicated last couple weeks “top is in” and has an 8k target on the Dow next couple years. Most I’ve read expect the same. Gotta keep perspective here. 2011 almost qualifies as a mini bear suggesting a new bull that can run for a few years. Most overseas markets just beginning new bulls after a couple year bear. Wouldn’t short more that very ST now – election year.
thx Tommy
Thanks Tommy, I agree with your broadly (and generally contrarian) bullish view. A few comments:
First, you can’t gleen much from a one week data point on insider buying. Should be treated as noise until a clear trend is established, in my opinion. I’ll ignore the fact that insiders are historically poor market timers.
Second, the blogosphere is not the market. It’s a handful of small day traders who on average are wrong, generally trade the same direction and lose money more than they make. I think the folks posting on blogs on the whole have a very negligible impact on market direction. Institutions have been buying risk for a long time now, per Bernanke’s destruction of rate products. Case in point: at one of my quarterly division meetings a couple weeks ago we took a survey of the group. Everyone simultaneously thought that stocks were fully value and saw major risks with the fiscal cliff, china slowdown, etc.. but also rated stocks as the expected top performing asset class over the next 12 months. We manage $110bn.
I agree about most oversease markets, but those markets have been severly beaten down. We have not. Spain is still down 50% from 2007 highs, while we are making new multi-year highs. I think it’s foolhardy to look at foreign market rebounds as an indicator of where we might go. We didn’t go down with them; why would we go up with them? Not saying we won’t, just don’t think we should look at that as a catalyst or argument.
Just my 2 cents. cheers Tommy!
Insiders have been chronically bullish for months. Last week was the aberration…
Tony, for you it’s FREE for the rest of the month
You can log-in at http://www.markethighsandlows.com
username guest912 password 92812
Scotty,
It’s free for everyone that reads this blog too.
thx
OK capn TC
Hope all is well with you and yours
Tony,
Where is the link for markethighsandlows?
WC … number of highs/low? … do not track it.
Tony,
I thought you told Scotty, markethighsandlows.com was free to everyone on your blog. I was trying to find the link. Not sure I understand your reply “WC….number of highs/low?….do not track it”…
Thank you!
You must have meant this:
Tony, for you it’s FREE for the rest of the month
You can log-in at http://www.markethighsandlows.com
username guest912 password 92812
I do not understand, yesterdays post portrayed the start of minute wave iv, yet todays post states that minute wave iv has been completed without going lower than yesterday’s close. So in effect minute wave iv lasted less than 4 hours?
quick and short … retested that low this AM … but may not be over yet
COMMENT AND SONG OF THE DAY:
i am waiting for a long tna entry.
all folios are performing well ahead of their benchmarks except the roadmap foio.
the medium risk folio show a return of +0.61% vs. a loss of 1.43% for the benchmark qqq.
the high risk folios shows a return of 0.64% vs its benchmark $iwm with a return of 0.33%. the best performer is BONT with a 15.42% return.
the low risk folio shows a profit of 1.98% versus a loss of 0.18% for its $iwm benchmark. the best performer is CWTR with 21.57% profit.
currently 70% long.
coltrane and ellington:
Kudos S&P you are up across the board.
Nice tune too!
thank you Tony, very kind of you Sir.