SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +423
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower. Europe opened higher and closed +3.20%. US index futures were higher, then lower, then higher again in a volatile overnight session. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 395K vs 400K, and the Trade deficit was reported higher: -$53.1 bln vs -$50.2 bln. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1133. The market had closed at SPX 1121 yesterday. After a quick pop to SPX 1140 the market pulled back to 1128 by 10:00. Another rally carried the SPX to 1156 by 11:00. This was followed by a pullback to SPX 1147 by 11:30. After that the market stair-stepped its way higher, hitting SPX 1186 around 3:30 and then declined to close at 1173. The same price as tuesday’s close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +4.3%, and the NDX/NAZ were +4.6%. Bonds lost 28 ticks, Crude rose $2.70, Gold tumbled $42.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX jumps to 1168 and then 1146, with resistance back to 1176 and then 1187. Short term momentum hit overbought today. Tomorrow, Retail sales at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment and Business inventories at 10:00.
It has been roller coaster city these past few trading days. Last night the ES rallied to 1148, then dropped to 1103, before turning right around and rallying into the open. Today’s cash market trading, however, was virtually straight up from yesterday’s SPX 1121 close. Around noon the SPX hit the levels we have been looking for to confirm the Int. wave iii low at 1102. The rally, however, climbed all the way up to our original Int. wave iv target at the OEW 1187 pivot. This market is now sufficiently overbought to complete Int. iv and start an Int. wave v decline into the downtrend low. It has been quite volatile, as we all know, and attempting to pinpoint a reversal point is quite difficult. Short term support is at the 1168 and then 1146 pivot ranges. Overhead resistance is at the 1176 and 1187 pivot ranges. Short term momentum is now overbought for the first time in three weeks. Next, a decline below SPX 1160 suggests that Int. wave v is underway. Hope the short special report today put this market in the proper historical perspective. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend low SPX 1102
LONG TERM: bear market highly probable
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
last support I have on my 16807 Volume ESU is 1170 ish
then its to the big fibs @1167 lol
The only rub is guys just shorted at 1172
CL faded late Im sure thats the lean right now but its eq’s anything can happen
Pivot time
time for the WTF tail
everybodys short here :/
maybe they’ll get a bone or get the bone
friday 12 min to go at the end of a brutal/awesome week
GS buying eq and selling gold 2 days ago worked out for them …go figure huh
GS government sponsored
Tony
Let them eat cake
I worked with the red headed step child division of GS aka their order fillers in the pit in Chicago.
And even though they were treated as 2 nd class citizens by Goldman Sachs NY they still felt they were much better than us
Insider information gives them an edge.
Elliott Wave Midday Update Video for 8.12.11 – Watching SPX 1195, DJI 11,440 and COMP 2545
http://Wavegenius.com/intraday
Hey C B
Heard a new target on CL this morn $195
I guess buy EVERY dip
wow, that’s some serious long-term thinking there, Lee
…however, it’s a small world, and when money comes out of heavy metals, there are only a few things it can go into: grains, softs, and treasuries….although I heard someone say the other day that the corn crop north of i-80 was excellent…and you said it normally peaks in June…so I am kinda puzzled about that
Should I give up $67
lol…no idea, I got out of UCO yesterday because I wanted the $ and that’s what the boss
was doing…and now that CL has a -D on 60 min ..we’ll buy the next dip, I guess….it’s a dip-to-dip kind of life 
Hey H D
leave that bid in………. thats the bonus buy area !!
Hey C B
Dont get out of positions with me ! Look it gave ya another $1.50 + today
until the close
Lee, don’t worry …it was the chart, it was time, I was tired, I was ready, it made sense, you made sense…all kinds of reasons…don’t worry about me following anybody…the chances of that are approximately…zero
…I always appreciate your opinions and try to figure out why you say things b4 I do anything…and the worst that could happend is if you started worring about someone following you …so don’t 
Nice !!!
OK, can I get my $1.50 now(?)….lol (j/k)
))
I’ll pay you in Swiss Francs
oh, that is so nice of you, Lee!
See guys? …ask and ye shall receive…lol
Hi tony, talking about that pull back in gold, today is 2 days in a row and the wave count says higher to much higher… I bought some gld…. sometimes it’s hard to believe the price action… have a nice weekend thanks for your work
3 waves up from the open? 1187 Pivot time
thats low not open…
GL either way
at 1189 c=a…the bears have their chance now
Thanks MGD
Feel like a falling wedge ?
NDX is abt its 38.2% Fib Retrac from the Julys highs…Tony says this is a 4th wave..
we also have c=a on the SPX ….so I guess it is done..or ..we have something also…
GL
Tony,if I want an entry point for gold,what level should u look at for exposure?
Hi Vishal, Wait for the next correction.
what are we thinking about a psbl pullback to TL and 20ema..at 162 ish ..
http://screencast.com/t/tLTCW9Ve
or plan B , weekly TL ? http://screencast.com/t/iyMPPZ2w472p
Tony, if NDX completed its PV in july, this looks like a wave “b” or 2 unfolding..what do you think ?
MGD, Wave 4 of the first downtrend?
..and next a 5th wave to complete “a” ?
Didn’t mean to kill the thread with my bad attitude
But spend a day on Twitter or Stock Twits they’re 99% posers who are selling a sub service.
I ask if they trade at the CME so I can say it to their faces if possible.
Have a great weekend !!
It’s so shiny
Not saying anything. Just what I see.
http://flic.kr/p/aci8VK
Really enjoyed the blog this week. Have a great restful weekend.
Thanks H D
Glad ur tracking it cause it ain’t going away anytime soon.
pivot time again ..its Friday everybody whos been chasing their tail has caught it
Easy $$ period at a pause IMO
It keeps looking at me….1745 again….. hey I’m just guessing but IAU has had 200-300% volume last 3 day. GL
http://usdebt.kleptocracy.us/
Hope your right, have a bunch of benny’s
To convert. Got some rocks more than a 1 banger ago, some before that. Pre Obober care.
Lee never traded on floor. Always use chair.
Glad you share time here.
Thx for heads up. 19 currency margins same night.
ESU traded .618 back pit low/high at 1279.25
.618 ‘s have been money during this decline but it has to get some distance from it
Watch CL for clues
1179.25 whoops
long time reader. first time poster.
could we be forming a descending triangle on the spx hourly? just a thought…
next pullback should be key, lower low, or higher low?
tony et al, thanks for doing a great job. and keeping me in check…
Welcome SGC, Had not considered that.
Hey guys if your a Twitter or Stock Twits superstar thinking about spreading the news here I’m your huckleberry. Save ur self some time and keep it on Stock Twits with the other “I told u so Re Tweeting liars who paper trade and have web ego’s looking for the most followers
This is my opinion and this IS Tonys blog .
NDX did not print a new high…negat. diverg..??….do we have a top ?…
What do you see Lee ??
Looks like that iv is in
Relax David this isn’t Twiiter
Maybe use a smiley face or some self deprecating humor
Did u trade on the floor at the CME ?
What do u mean by “you people” ?
Just as guess as always MGD
Hey MGD
They filled the open gap and turned I’d stick to what Tony said.
Thanks, waiting for a close below 1160…possible target: 100 points below or 1060…major 3 = 2.618 of major 1
Hey MGD
ESU did make a new high by 2.25 handles also
filled the gap close now just stopped at .50% of the day pit
last nites low in globex was .618 from yes high @1147
Tony, “a” was abt 71 points…at 1189 “c” =”a”. …
could be possible “c” being 1.62 of “a” and this structure still being interm iv ?? …
MGD, Market as to drop below 1160 to get v underway
People need to be open to this whole decline being an ABC from 1370. 1370 was 78.6% retracement of the entire 07-09 high to low. 1101 is a 38% retrace of the 09 lows and 11 highs. That’s why it pivoted there. Insider buying, corporate buybacks, negative sentiment. Also, 13 fibonacci months from July 2010 lows, 13 fibonacci weeks from 1370 highs. So fixated on 5 waves, you forget that in the history of the SP 500, only 7 times prior did we double quickly off lows. In all cases, we dropped 27-40% of the bull rally. This time we dropped 38%. Also, in 1974-1977 we had a similar rally off bear lows, went sideways, dropped 20%, then rallied. We just had a huge rally 09-11, went sideways, dropped 20% from highs… and are now rallying. Pay attention.
Thx David
Relax David this isn’t Twiiter
Maybe use a smiley face or some self deprecating humor
Did u trade on the floor at the CME ?
What do u mean by “you people” ?
Trading these mkts are tough thats the reality
You can blog out ur ass all day means nothing save it for Stock Twits.
Maybe trade more and give less opinions it worked for me.
And David no RT ur self over here if u please.
I expect u to respond after my comments and I promise I’ll only respond one more time after you set me straight
Just curious – do you look/wait for a close below 1160 or is it effectively triggered with any tick below that level?
RC, an hourly print helps confirm, but usually just a print 1point below.
Thanks for making us aware of this possibility. Even though I’m looking for a v of 3 down you make a valid argument.
On the way to work today I noticed I just turned 161,800 mi on the odometer in my car. What does it mean?!
It means that chances are you don’t have an American Union made car….good call
Change the oil if u last changed it at 132,000
kjbo – how true
I just hope it doesn’t mean I have to drive backwards for the next 38,200.
Elliott Wave Forecast For 8.12.11 – Rally was a 4 before another 5 down?
http://wavegenius.com/intraday
Thanks Tony,
Just in case: It looks most of us are expecting more dowside in the short term. So I wonder if my old alt count could be unfolding…Feb-Mar (A)…Mar-Jul (abc) (B), Jul-Aug (C).. P1 already completed and P2 underway. The numbers for spx 95*2.618=248….1347-248=1099….for dji 836*2.618=2188…12750-2188=10561
Bearish case: the market did something different than expected today so I think interm v may be larger than previous thought.
MGD, February completed the third wave in all the indices.After that they started to diverge.
IMO, that is the correct count. The late July high was the end of “c” of “B” though. Truncated. The move down from there is the “C” matching the “A” that occurred from Feb to March.
I have told others and have been rebuffed. I really believe this is the count and have been trading that way.
What is to be determined now if that was a complete structure or an “A” of a bigger structure. Only time will tell.
thx GLS
I still favour this being Interm iv..and interm v and major 3 ending at abt 1060…numbers: major 3=2.618 of major 1
Give em heck gls
as long as it doesn’t go to zero we should all have a job
1745 GC HDivot fibology
thx HD
Tony,
Where do you see this down leg ending, and how big a rally do you expect the next leg to be?
Just took a look at the hourly chart for this downtrend. Some interesting wave relationships potentially developing. Int. i = 60 points Int ii = 51 points Int iii = 245 points Int iv = 84 points at 1186, or 1.618 Int. ii @ SPX 1089 Int. v = 1.618 Int. i @ SPX 1092 Int. iii = 2.618 Int v @ SPX 1093 Int. iii thru v = 4.234 Int. i There is an OEW pivot at 1090 Certainly looks like a cluster should 1186 hold as the Int. iv high. Next uptrend SPX 1200 ?
If we close over 1199 that would be past a 38% retrace upwards of the 1347 to 1101 drop. That could indicate it was a 3 wave correction and ended with the 38% retracement of the 2009 lows to 2011 highs. All eyes on the near term action.
thx David
Tony, thanks so much for all the information and trading help you give us everyday!
http://screencast.com/t/wbdAjhyrT an interesting close today, just shy of the 1172.97 needed for the 3X3 MA to get a buy sig. The closing # for tomorrow is 1163.79, so it could get a bit more “constructive” if we close abv. Thanks everyone. Have a good evening!
CB, It is my honor and responsibility to do my best.
Tony, your dedication is really amazing and you are a great example for all of us. Thanks !!!