Fed’s adjusted monetary base

This is a follow up to our late November post: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/feds-adjusted-monetary-base/. In that post we projected that Primary wave IV was ending just under $2.0 tln, and Primary wave V was about to kickoff to the $2.5 tln area. Last night the FED posted its weekly update. The following chart offers the updated data since the previous post.

Observe QE 2.0 has accomplished one of its intended goals: raising the monetary base. With the base nearly at the $2.5 tln area it will be interesting to see what the FED does going forward. This chart suggests the FED will go on hold in June 2011, and await further economic data. The current bullish patterns in the stock market suggest the same. Best to your trading/investing.

About tony caldaro

Investor
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8 Responses to Fed’s adjusted monetary base

  1. Pingback: FED’s adjusted monetary base | the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on

  2. ia100 says:

    Thank you Tony.

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  3. cwallace90 says:

    Tony-

    I have been wondering when you were going to update this. I noted this when you first posted this, and I’ll say it again: this is simply genius. The wave count could not have been more clear. You can even see 5 minor waves within Major waves 1 and 3. Also, if you notice Primary wave V is acting like Primary wave I: not subdividing, and very sharp. Could be a “blow-off” top and end to the FED’s shenanigans.

    Thanks for posting tony!

    Chris

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  4. ia100 says:

    Insightful.

    If I understand you correctly, and take this as coming from a non-technical analysis perspective, could this been seen as the Fed laying the groundwork for the withdrawal of QEII by flooding the system with money now?

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    • tony caldaro says:

      Welcome Inder, That’s not they way i’m interpreting it. The FED has been fighting deflationary pressures with inflationary increases in the money supply. These deflationary pressures will remain for several more years (secular bear cycle). The FED is likely to maintain, and even expand, it’s balance sheet over this period. Talk of doing otherwise is probably an attempt to pressure a rising commodity market.

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