Happy Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving to those celebrating it!

Due to the holiday week there will be no weekend report this week.

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544 Responses to Happy Thanksgiving

  1. gary leibowitz says:

    Just to be clear on my record. I am calling for the next down turn to be the start of a very long winter. An 80 to 90% drop from it’s highs. A move that lasts decades before any new sustained bull cycle can be seen. clearing up my past record. In 2016 i was one of a handful of people pounding the podium for a long sustained rally where at the time the great wisdom was for a final mega cycle bull to end drastically. 3 short years later we are in a mass euphoric stage where only a decade or more of big upside is in front of us. In between i used the silly arguments that Trade War will be the number one dominant downward mover in this bullish cycle. Also was the first to declare the TWEET METER as the most important indicator for immediate market moves.

    As for my actual trading record, well lets just say it isn’t my best year. I am basically flat even with the big wins during the wild trade war announcements. On predicting long term trend I am also a tad off on the assumed outcome from 3 years ago in impeachment and removal of trump. Seems I underestimated the ability of bias, prejudice, and complacency to overshadow the truth on such a destructive force.

    If anyone wonders today how Germany from WWI to WWII could endorse such a destructive policy wonder no longer. While my long term prediction of a mega bear market be seen starting somewhere between late 2020 and 2021 I must once again speed up the timeline due to the acceleration in social, economic, political trends.
    ===========================================================================
    AAPL is my main momentum indicator with a ceiling of 283.97 less than 5% move from where it closed Friday. I can assume a strong possibility it achieves this price before the new year starts. In fact if there is any positive sign on the phase one China deal it should be the first and most powerful recipient of such good news. In fact it actually seems logical to assume it can surpass that ceiling. Like the TWEET METER was my number one market indicator this milestone is as important. A break above, even intra-day would put in doubt my assumption of a final top being in place.
    As for external events moving this market, if i have to continue to show direct evidence of this I know there would not be one more convert since the proof has already been shown repeatedly. Beating a dead horse. Any announcement this week or over the weekend before December 16th will once again dictate the immediate market trend.

    Like

    • lml25 says:

      *Past performance is no indicator of future results.

      Liked by 1 person

      • gary leibowitz says:

        WRONG! It develops a statistical trend. To dismiss Buffett is to dismiss someone with a much better statistical trend than say Cramer. My decades of betting and actual posting of my bets establishes a “trend”. Most importantly if that trend is similar in long cyclical moves both up and down that establishes there is no strong bias influencing profits. Me, i can never be detached from emotional bias as say Buffett and therefore i do suffer from bias in determining my profit trend line.

        So I guess PHIL should be ignored because past performances…? The slogan is worse than useless, it is counter productive. Anyone proving statistical advantage should have more influence. Science should be based on statistical advantages and not give equal weight to any hypothesis.

        Like

    • kevinm76 says:

      Gary, Even if no deal and tariffs go in place, 3200 by year end is a shoe in. However would not be surprised to get a gap fill around 3100 this upcoming week http://schrts.co/UsgqVNzd As to doom and gloom. Never gonna happen with the FED backstopping everything with Billions of freshly printed money.

      Liked by 2 people

    • torehund says:

      Gary what about China, index is at 2900 not far from 1990 levels. How could a world wide bear market start with such an underpinning ? Lets at least blow a little “life” into the world before we can speak of a major downpour 🙂

      Liked by 1 person

  2. https://www.lucyd.co/?fbclid=IwAR2DbOCyTNYzXlWOojayiHQMxqmAdpnCrI6YPZlZrLPHVp1Rh_MDYK-E6Pk

    Cemtrex Inc. Young 33 years old CEO net worth of $150,000 today.. Partners with smart glasses $59 to $100 pair Smart Glasses Ergomonics

    Up and coming new Steve Jobs within Tech industry.

    Like

    • Jim Guthery says:

      If you had bought CETX five years ago, your investment would be worth -95%. I would not actually categorize him as the next Steve Job; to my knowledge, Elon Musk has taken over that role… Short sellers have made out like bandits in CETX.

      Liked by 3 people

  3. Facebook Page : Amos Pence Ailanjian

    Just posted Short Ratio with dates and chart. Very interesting Short Ratio dropped like a brick from 56.23 High to 19.23 low on Thursday as price dropped to Matthew Beckman stake price.

    MIT university conducted intensive study on short ratio and effects of share price.

    Two days to Earnings, SEC 13G filed Few 100,000 shares change hands and Short ratio just happens to drop big time.

    If you match lows of short ratio to price in those months.. notice price moves higher once Short ratio falls to lows.

    Just observation, educational purposes only.

    Like

    • M Wags says:

      Amos…

      The short interest for CETX as of Nov. 15th settlement date was a piddly 80,000 shares. Less than 2% of outstanding common. Its irrelevant.

      Like

      • M Wags says:

        PS. There is no NET daily short interest for CETX as you claim. The FINRA SHO short volume figures that you reference are not net. FINRA merely reports the amount of volume executed on the short side for a specific day. That data has nothing to do with NET short sales on the day.

        As a result, any reference of a short ratio in your post is totally erroneous.

        Liked by 2 people

  4. riderbobo says:

    For phil:

    My mug shot I mean his face. The avatar picture is from when he was younger. I am having trouble loading that identity and picture. The years, booze and inactivity haven’t been kind to him.
    Check out the pictures I posted as requested.

    Also lost some pictures I had which someone else posted on the site.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a few mug shots. I just don’t happen to have them.

    Like

  5. sixpack says:

    Phil, you trade DH very shorterm. Can same methodology be applied successfully to longer term? Hourly charts, daily charts…..that sort of thing?

    Six

    Liked by 1 person

    • phil1247 says:

      hi sixpack
      yes i use it for 15 min 30 min 1 hr day and week
      it works perfectly
      even on stocks like EXAS ..i was amazed to see

      here is the problem ………..
      spx is in a WEEKLY extension long
      the target is 3201
      your risk is down to 3030 until 3201 is hit

      that is NOT the kind of risk i want to take
      so i stick with 15 and 30 min
      where i can control risk to 5 points or so
      and not 100 points

      Liked by 2 people

  6. riderbobo says:

    For Wags

    The dark pool reference is based on a chart posted at lunker’s yesterday. You know, the blog you are banned from.

    As I stated over at danerics yesterday the only reason I post McHugh information there is to get a rise out of you. I made a post there today from him. You saw it but are presently only lurking.

    Once again you have risen to the bait.

    Have a Merry Christmas.,

    LMAO!

    Liked by 1 person

  7. We “ feel” Friday’s SEC filing statement 13G Matthew Beckman acting as agent. 339,000 shares is company giving them needed shares to cover naked position before Tuesday big earnings day.

    Onbalance weekly Daily reflect ongoing accumulation.

    Thus Cemtrex Inc. is 100% shortable stock

    1. Your 100% Free to short it if you feel it’s gping down.

    GL but that’s our call

    We are long and strong Cemtrex Inc. into Earnings

    Facebook Page : Amos Pence Ailanjian

    Plenty of videos and comments on BYND, CETX and AMD Shares ..

    Like

    • riderbobo says:

      No to be trusted at this point.

      Like

      • phil1247 says:

        possible
        but there is little evidence to support the bear case at this point
        they have been crushed at every turn

        Liked by 1 person

        • riderbobo says:

          I am counting on next week being a down week.. Dark pool selling on Friday. 2nd week in December is historically a poor weak.

          Maximum pain for SPY for December 19th is $301, FFIW.

          Disclosure: bought TVIX on Friday, held over the weekend so I have a dog in the fight.

          Liked by 1 person

          • riderbobo says:

            typo $301.50 which equates to about 3013 SPX cash

            Like

          • phil1247 says:

            i have no dog in the fight
            i dont count on anything happening
            Ms market is telling me
            es is straight up above 3135
            there is no way i can be short until that breaks

            Liked by 2 people

          • phil1247 says:

            let me rephrase
            if you recall on friday i showed you that 3151 es was – 618 target

            we did not even go ONE tick higher
            you could have shorted there looking for 3135
            bit if its a runaway bull ( SUPER BULL)
            you may only retrace to 3141 or 3138 ( .38 and .5 retrace of extension )

            i would rather wait
            and be late to the shorting party

            Liked by 1 person

          • M Wags says:

            Lets cut to the chase Bobo…

            You know nothing about Dark Pools. And you dont even have a real-time trading platform with Level-2 quotes.

            Youve had a long documented history on other blogs of TOP PICKING and following permabear Robert McHugh and his phi-dates and Hindenburg Omens and Jaws of Death pattern.

            Your cut and pasting of Robet McHugh updates at Danerics blog is only rivaled by your 24/7 posts about Donald Trump.

            And now you are citing Dark Pools?

            Thats hilarious. 😀

            Like

  8. phil1247 says:

    GOLD
    nothing has changed
    gc still a short but is holding long from low by a fingernail
    1463 must give way for swoosh down

    Like

    • kevinm76 says:

      Phil, I know you like to be late to the part but Silver/Gold imho is in it’s 5th and final wave down from the August/September High Based on EW. The cycle is getting very late to the shorting game. Add to that, seasonality is very bullish from Mid-December until Late February. Lets talk again about Gold and SIlver in Mid Jan, I’m sure you’ll be on board but late to the party. Full disclosure. Bought Silver at around $16.60

      Liked by 1 person

      • phil1247 says:

        hi kevin
        when i say its still a short
        it doesnt mean i am short
        i would not want to be long
        so i remain out
        i dont want to tie up capital in something going nowhere

        Like

        • kevinm76 says:

          Understandable. If that works for you cool.

          Like

          • phil1247 says:

            yes
            its like people who talk about GDX and metals here
            but are clueless
            holding capital in something going nowhere
            when SPX is a money machine

            Like

          • phil1247 says:

            kevin
            i dont know if you were on the blog just before the GDX peak at 31
            >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
            phil1247 says:
            August 25, 2019 at 9:53 am
            k
            upside momentum is waning in gdx
            targets at 31.. and 31.50
            that is where i want to EXIT … not buy

            >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>…
            conspiracy folks and fortune tellers talk a lot about GDX
            but 31 was my exit
            anyone fooling with it since august has been chopped up

            Like

        • lml25 says:

          Lol.Mr.Kimball on the old show “Green Acres” used to talk in the same style of b.s.
          Mr.Douglas :”Mr Kimball,nice day today.”
          Kimball:”Beautiful day Mr.Douglas…well not beautiful,but very pleasant…no,it’s more than pleasant,it’s above average…no,actually it’s between beautiful and lousy.”
          Here,phil is long above(“straight up”)3135 but watch out for 3151(“it’s a short”).”When I say it’s a short,it doesn’t mean I’M short.”
          Okay,got it….lol.

          Liked by 1 person

    • kevinm76 says:

      Martin Armstrong talks alot about nothing. Sounds good for the people who have not been following him.However, his track record is quite poor. I’ll give him credit though on the equities market. He has been calling for higher prices due to cash inflows. However he has been 100% wrong on Gold. His history with Gold is very bad
      and I must wonder if he bet wrong on Gold in the late 1990’s resulting in charges on a ponzi scheme he started because he was losing money hand over fist with trading.
      behttps://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2006-08-18-0608180272-story.html “admitting that he lied to investors about losses incurred by his fund in commodities futures trades”. “By falsely representing to investors that my trading performance was better than it actually was, what I was doing was wrong and improper,” Armstrong, 57, told U.S. District Judge John Keenan in New York. “I knew at the time that I was deceiving the investors.” He is a 100% fraud that now makes his money off of preaching doom and gloom with the hopes people buy his subscription service for his bogus “Socrates” computer trading system. Stay far, far away from this guy and please don’t listen to him.

      Liked by 2 people

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