Happy Thanksgiving to those celebrating it!
Due to the holiday week there will be no weekend report this week.
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itsfknlee on One Year Later itsfknlee on One Year Later 
lml25 on One Year Later 
mcgcapital on One Year Later 
phil1247 on One Year Later 
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gtoptions on One Year Later 
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sixpack on One Year Later
Just to be clear on my record. I am calling for the next down turn to be the start of a very long winter. An 80 to 90% drop from it’s highs. A move that lasts decades before any new sustained bull cycle can be seen. clearing up my past record. In 2016 i was one of a handful of people pounding the podium for a long sustained rally where at the time the great wisdom was for a final mega cycle bull to end drastically. 3 short years later we are in a mass euphoric stage where only a decade or more of big upside is in front of us. In between i used the silly arguments that Trade War will be the number one dominant downward mover in this bullish cycle. Also was the first to declare the TWEET METER as the most important indicator for immediate market moves.
As for my actual trading record, well lets just say it isn’t my best year. I am basically flat even with the big wins during the wild trade war announcements. On predicting long term trend I am also a tad off on the assumed outcome from 3 years ago in impeachment and removal of trump. Seems I underestimated the ability of bias, prejudice, and complacency to overshadow the truth on such a destructive force.
If anyone wonders today how Germany from WWI to WWII could endorse such a destructive policy wonder no longer. While my long term prediction of a mega bear market be seen starting somewhere between late 2020 and 2021 I must once again speed up the timeline due to the acceleration in social, economic, political trends.
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AAPL is my main momentum indicator with a ceiling of 283.97 less than 5% move from where it closed Friday. I can assume a strong possibility it achieves this price before the new year starts. In fact if there is any positive sign on the phase one China deal it should be the first and most powerful recipient of such good news. In fact it actually seems logical to assume it can surpass that ceiling. Like the TWEET METER was my number one market indicator this milestone is as important. A break above, even intra-day would put in doubt my assumption of a final top being in place.
As for external events moving this market, if i have to continue to show direct evidence of this I know there would not be one more convert since the proof has already been shown repeatedly. Beating a dead horse. Any announcement this week or over the weekend before December 16th will once again dictate the immediate market trend.
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*Past performance is no indicator of future results.
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WRONG! It develops a statistical trend. To dismiss Buffett is to dismiss someone with a much better statistical trend than say Cramer. My decades of betting and actual posting of my bets establishes a “trend”. Most importantly if that trend is similar in long cyclical moves both up and down that establishes there is no strong bias influencing profits. Me, i can never be detached from emotional bias as say Buffett and therefore i do suffer from bias in determining my profit trend line.
So I guess PHIL should be ignored because past performances…? The slogan is worse than useless, it is counter productive. Anyone proving statistical advantage should have more influence. Science should be based on statistical advantages and not give equal weight to any hypothesis.
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Gary, Even if no deal and tariffs go in place, 3200 by year end is a shoe in. However would not be surprised to get a gap fill around 3100 this upcoming week http://schrts.co/UsgqVNzd As to doom and gloom. Never gonna happen with the FED backstopping everything with Billions of freshly printed money.
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Gary what about China, index is at 2900 not far from 1990 levels. How could a world wide bear market start with such an underpinning ? Lets at least blow a little “life” into the world before we can speak of a major downpour 🙂
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https://www.lucyd.co/?fbclid=IwAR2DbOCyTNYzXlWOojayiHQMxqmAdpnCrI6YPZlZrLPHVp1Rh_MDYK-E6Pk
Cemtrex Inc. Young 33 years old CEO net worth of $150,000 today.. Partners with smart glasses $59 to $100 pair Smart Glasses Ergomonics
Up and coming new Steve Jobs within Tech industry.
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If you had bought CETX five years ago, your investment would be worth -95%. I would not actually categorize him as the next Steve Job; to my knowledge, Elon Musk has taken over that role… Short sellers have made out like bandits in CETX.
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Facebook Page : Amos Pence Ailanjian
Just posted Short Ratio with dates and chart. Very interesting Short Ratio dropped like a brick from 56.23 High to 19.23 low on Thursday as price dropped to Matthew Beckman stake price.
MIT university conducted intensive study on short ratio and effects of share price.
Two days to Earnings, SEC 13G filed Few 100,000 shares change hands and Short ratio just happens to drop big time.
If you match lows of short ratio to price in those months.. notice price moves higher once Short ratio falls to lows.
Just observation, educational purposes only.
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Amos…
The short interest for CETX as of Nov. 15th settlement date was a piddly 80,000 shares. Less than 2% of outstanding common. Its irrelevant.
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PS. There is no NET daily short interest for CETX as you claim. The FINRA SHO short volume figures that you reference are not net. FINRA merely reports the amount of volume executed on the short side for a specific day. That data has nothing to do with NET short sales on the day.
As a result, any reference of a short ratio in your post is totally erroneous.
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For phil:
My mug shot I mean his face. The avatar picture is from when he was younger. I am having trouble loading that identity and picture. The years, booze and inactivity haven’t been kind to him.
Check out the pictures I posted as requested.
Also lost some pictures I had which someone else posted on the site.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a few mug shots. I just don’t happen to have them.
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typo
first word = “By”
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I found the avatar picture/identity and posted it.
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wow ….
if i were him i would pay to have those pictures destroyed
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He had a falling out with one of his former buddies on Danerics who he met up with at an EXAS conference in Madison, WI prior to that. The guy posted several pictures of Wags on the site some of which these are.
Perhaps he will post some more for your edification.
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WAGS
will probably deny those are pictures of him
he will say they are pictures of his TRADING ASSISTANT ….LOL
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Phil, you trade DH very shorterm. Can same methodology be applied successfully to longer term? Hourly charts, daily charts…..that sort of thing?
Six
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hi sixpack
yes i use it for 15 min 30 min 1 hr day and week
it works perfectly
even on stocks like EXAS ..i was amazed to see
here is the problem ………..
spx is in a WEEKLY extension long
the target is 3201
your risk is down to 3030 until 3201 is hit
that is NOT the kind of risk i want to take
so i stick with 15 and 30 min
where i can control risk to 5 points or so
and not 100 points
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For Wags
The dark pool reference is based on a chart posted at lunker’s yesterday. You know, the blog you are banned from.
As I stated over at danerics yesterday the only reason I post McHugh information there is to get a rise out of you. I made a post there today from him. You saw it but are presently only lurking.
Once again you have risen to the bait.
Have a Merry Christmas.,
LMAO!
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Once a Troll…
Always a Troll eh Bobo?
PS. Your paper trading in TVIX has been making new highs. Enjoy your winter in Canada old man. 🙂
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NO PERSONAL ATTACKS
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How’s Lunker doing Phil?
Havent seen him around lately posting about his 5 post per day rule.
Did he get banned?
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Is he still looking for $47 on EXAS?
Kind of strange that we havent heard a “peep” out of him on EXAS ever since he posted his $62 and $47 targets late last month just before a LOW that saw an $11 rally.
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i am watching EXAS still
i will let you know when it is time to buy
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Thanks Phil!
After posting about EXAS literally every single day last month, Im surprised you werent interested in a 15% move in ten days.
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spx is a money machine
no time to fool with EXAS now
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But Phil, a 15% move is a 15% move, and the move that EXAS made off of Nov. 22nd is the equivalent of the SPX rallying from 3,110 to 3,576 for 466 points!
Instead, the SPX is only + 1.1% since November 22nd. How could you miss this massive move in EXAS of 15% ? Were you still in your CD ?
I seem to recall that you were extremely bearish on the day the EXAS printed the low on Nov. 22nd at $75.35 …. posting “abandon hope all ye who enter here”
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Avg cost of $63.15. I can post it at danerics if you insist.
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hi rider
i dont see any comments at danerics
do i have to sign up to see them ?
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Different user name there. BoboM.
You should be able to see comments.
Disqus platform.
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ok i see them now
rider you are one prolific poster over there
isnt there a 200 post limit at danerics ? ….LOL
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No limit. Wags and I were banned under an identity there, consequently I can’t post as Rider Bobo where there are thousands of posts. I also post from time to time as Mike Wagner Supporter with the avatar being his ugly mug shot.
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70 year old Bobo has a crush on me.:D
So cute!
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can you post his mug shot there now ?
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rider are you saying Wags was arrested
and has an actual mug shot ?
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We “ feel” Friday’s SEC filing statement 13G Matthew Beckman acting as agent. 339,000 shares is company giving them needed shares to cover naked position before Tuesday big earnings day.
Onbalance weekly Daily reflect ongoing accumulation.
Thus Cemtrex Inc. is 100% shortable stock
1. Your 100% Free to short it if you feel it’s gping down.
GL but that’s our call
We are long and strong Cemtrex Inc. into Earnings
Facebook Page : Amos Pence Ailanjian
Plenty of videos and comments on BYND, CETX and AMD Shares ..
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http://www.yorkvilleadvisors.com/team/matthew-beckman/
Makes no sense whatsoever, That Company would two days before it’s earnings. File with SEC public statement of intentions to dilute its shares to the degree that it might hurt shareholders value.
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VIX BUY signal confirmed
BULLISH for stocks
https://evilspeculator.com/vix-buy-signal-triggered/
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No to be trusted at this point.
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possible
but there is little evidence to support the bear case at this point
they have been crushed at every turn
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I am counting on next week being a down week.. Dark pool selling on Friday. 2nd week in December is historically a poor weak.
Maximum pain for SPY for December 19th is $301, FFIW.
Disclosure: bought TVIX on Friday, held over the weekend so I have a dog in the fight.
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typo $301.50 which equates to about 3013 SPX cash
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i have no dog in the fight
i dont count on anything happening
Ms market is telling me
es is straight up above 3135
there is no way i can be short until that breaks
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let me rephrase
if you recall on friday i showed you that 3151 es was – 618 target
we did not even go ONE tick higher
you could have shorted there looking for 3135
bit if its a runaway bull ( SUPER BULL)
you may only retrace to 3141 or 3138 ( .38 and .5 retrace of extension )
i would rather wait
and be late to the shorting party
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Lets cut to the chase Bobo…
You know nothing about Dark Pools. And you dont even have a real-time trading platform with Level-2 quotes.
Youve had a long documented history on other blogs of TOP PICKING and following permabear Robert McHugh and his phi-dates and Hindenburg Omens and Jaws of Death pattern.
Your cut and pasting of Robet McHugh updates at Danerics blog is only rivaled by your 24/7 posts about Donald Trump.
And now you are citing Dark Pools?
Thats hilarious. 😀
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GOLD
nothing has changed
gc still a short but is holding long from low by a fingernail
1463 must give way for swoosh down
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Phil, I know you like to be late to the part but Silver/Gold imho is in it’s 5th and final wave down from the August/September High Based on EW. The cycle is getting very late to the shorting game. Add to that, seasonality is very bullish from Mid-December until Late February. Lets talk again about Gold and SIlver in Mid Jan, I’m sure you’ll be on board but late to the party. Full disclosure. Bought Silver at around $16.60
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hi kevin
when i say its still a short
it doesnt mean i am short
i would not want to be long
so i remain out
i dont want to tie up capital in something going nowhere
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Understandable. If that works for you cool.
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yes
its like people who talk about GDX and metals here
but are clueless
holding capital in something going nowhere
when SPX is a money machine
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kevin
i dont know if you were on the blog just before the GDX peak at 31
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
phil1247 says:
August 25, 2019 at 9:53 am
k
upside momentum is waning in gdx
targets at 31.. and 31.50
that is where i want to EXIT … not buy
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>…
conspiracy folks and fortune tellers talk a lot about GDX
but 31 was my exit
anyone fooling with it since august has been chopped up
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Lol.Mr.Kimball on the old show “Green Acres” used to talk in the same style of b.s.
Mr.Douglas :”Mr Kimball,nice day today.”
Kimball:”Beautiful day Mr.Douglas…well not beautiful,but very pleasant…no,it’s more than pleasant,it’s above average…no,actually it’s between beautiful and lousy.”
Here,phil is long above(“straight up”)3135 but watch out for 3151(“it’s a short”).”When I say it’s a short,it doesn’t mean I’M short.”
Okay,got it….lol.
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stick to casino
markets are too difficult for you
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Only beat you by 3 weeks phil.Try to keep up.
lml25 says:
August 6, 2019 at 10:45 am
GDX next resistance is 31.
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Martin Armstrong talks alot about nothing. Sounds good for the people who have not been following him.However, his track record is quite poor. I’ll give him credit though on the equities market. He has been calling for higher prices due to cash inflows. However he has been 100% wrong on Gold. His history with Gold is very bad
and I must wonder if he bet wrong on Gold in the late 1990’s resulting in charges on a ponzi scheme he started because he was losing money hand over fist with trading.
behttps://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2006-08-18-0608180272-story.html “admitting that he lied to investors about losses incurred by his fund in commodities futures trades”. “By falsely representing to investors that my trading performance was better than it actually was, what I was doing was wrong and improper,” Armstrong, 57, told U.S. District Judge John Keenan in New York. “I knew at the time that I was deceiving the investors.” He is a 100% fraud that now makes his money off of preaching doom and gloom with the hopes people buy his subscription service for his bogus “Socrates” computer trading system. Stay far, far away from this guy and please don’t listen to him.
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Link that works https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2006-08-18-0608180272-story.html
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He has been right on the Dow, so far.
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Yes, I did point that out. But his conjecture is worthless. Adversely his Gold calls have been horrendous. 50% right I guess. He’s still a Ponzi fraud that earns zero respect from me.
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