Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

 

November 16 2019

SPX opened the week from a gap down opening at 3080, then rallied up to reach 3087 by Monday’s close, from last weeks close at 3093.  Tuesday has reached 3100 at the first hour, but gave back the gain and close at 3092. Wednesday opened lower at 3084 again then rallied back for the rest of the day to finish at 3094.  Thursday is a flat and closed at 3097. Friday opened with a gap up at 3107 and rallied to the high of the week and finish the week at 3120.

SPX/DOW gained 0.89%/1.17% while NDX/NAZ gained 0.77%/0.72% of the Week.

On the economic front, weekly unemployment claims were up 14K at 225K and worse than forecast of 215K. Industrial Production was down at -0.84%, which was worse than consensus of -0.4%. Producer Price Index was 0.4%, up from -0.3% last month. Core CPI was 2.31% , down from previous month 2.36%.

LONG TERM: Early stages of breakout

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long-term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.   A breakout above the September micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred.  We are bullish as long as the 2930 level provides support going forward.

However, the DOW all time high this week did not eliminate the alternate count yet, so our alternate count for a potential breakdown is still posted on the DOW in the public chart list. We’re developing the criteria on how and when we could phase out the alternate count.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily.png

SPX continued the rally this week to reach another all-time high at 3120, and appears to be breaking out of the nested 1-2 structure that’s been in place since May. This confirmed Micro wave 2 completed at the 2856 low in October, and Micro wave 3 has been ongoing ever since.  Our nominal target for Micro wave 3 would be 1.618x Micro wave 1, which gives 3180.  This is a good start for an impulsive structure, and we’re expecting the Micro 5 / Minute iii could go as far as 3500 level.  A move below 2893 would invalidate the current Micro wave 1 and Micro wave 2 count.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly.png

Not much has changed short term.  We continue to count three waves up from the Micro wave 2 low as Nano wave i = 2960, Nano wave ii = 2893 and Nano wave iii in progress.  Nano wave iii is now well beyond the length of Nano wave i and exceeding 2x ratio with that wave, which further confirms the impulse structure. Since it reached our next pivot 3121 area this Friday, the next level to watch for a potential target is 3156. Noted that both the Hourly and Daily RSI has been over bought, a nano wave iv may happen at any time soon, before the nano wave v finished the Micro wave 3 at 3180 level.

Short term support is at the 3105 pivots, and the Resistance is at the 3121 and 3156 pivots.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 2.15%, mainly due to the Protest in Hong Kong and disappointed China Q3 data.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.38%.

The Dow Jones Global index (DJW) gained 0.39%, and the NYSE gained 0.64%.

 

COMMODITIES

Bonds (US 10 year) are in a downtrend, but gained 0.57%

Crude oil (WTIC) is in a downtrend, but gained 0.84%

Gold is in a downtrend, but gained 0.38%

The USD is in a downtrend, but lost 0.34%.

GBTC (Bitcoin) is in an uptrend, and lost 5.70%.

 

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Be kind and have a good week!

This entry was posted in Updates. Bookmark the permalink.

563 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. phil1247 says:

    took profits on break of es3127

    Like

  2. itsfknlee says:

    Markets are open

    Like

  3. Kathey Eagle says:

    Phil ur analysis is good keep posting short term also

    Liked by 1 person

  4. phil1247 says:

    ES ,,,
    still holding long from 3118
    where perfect bounce began yesterday as anticipated
    added more longs this am at 3129
    looking to exit some at 3135 target / 3138 upper boll band

    Liked by 1 person

  5. E says:

    What happened to this place? It used to be a great exchange of ideas. Now there is so much bashing and denigration. I am not doing well being a bear for so long. Yet I am not bashing anyone. We cannot always be right all the time.

    Liked by 6 people

    • lml25 says:

      “Meanwhile, if a pullback were to occur, support now looks to be near the 3000 area (point D) which is along the lower portion of the narrowing upward channel.”
      —Amateur Investor.
      LML25:Or maybe lower–2950 gap is only 50 points away.This analyst is still one of the top ones around.Thanks Fiona.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Roger Green says:

      Liking the look of the chart you posted..thanks, have a great day. 🙂

      Liked by 1 person

  6. fionamargaret says:

    Here are Technical Traders ideas, plus where we are in P&F…I sold UGAZ before the weekend after it did not go through the next number….weak….we will do well with it yet….

    https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/how-to-use-price-cycles-and-profit-as-a-swing-trader-spx-bonds-gold-nat-gas/

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?UGAZ

    Liked by 1 person

  7. lunker1 says:

    UGAZ got through 16.247 on Friday but didn’t hit 19 or 21. It fell and is now at 13.74. Crickets today. How much room are you supposed to give this?

    fionamargaret on November 15, 2019 at 11:24 am
    UGAZ… once we get it through 16.247, the numbers up to the big prize are 19.051, 20.836

    Liked by 4 people

    • swamper1 says:

      oh lordy! ,crickets is 100 percent correct.
      its all hats and horns when it spikes up ( on forecast’s that everyone knows about, )
      but when the retrace occurs and it take’s a dive ….not a word.

      Like

      • fionamargaret says:

        Nobody even suggested UGAZ when it was at 12, except Kvilia, Page and I, and we have had 2 nice runs…..so be fair..

        Liked by 2 people

        • kvilia says:

          I think Page was a bellwether but true, getting in around 13 and running this to 19-20 would give you 50% profit in a couple of weeks. Beats pretty much everyone who reads it, except Phil 😉

          Like

        • lunker1 says:

          you’ve been suggesting it since $31

          Liked by 1 person

        • lunker1 says:

          fionamargaret says:
          February 6, 2019 at 11:35 am
          UGAZ

          fionamargaret says:
          February 6, 2019 at 12:15 pm
          Think UGAZ has made a bottom….

          Fiona over just this past year at least 10 people have asked you why do you keep repeatedly mentioning the same tickers.

          My point is simply this. Several posters create much fanfare when making the initial call to start a trade but post nothing when the train is exited. This is not serving people. This is a disservice to people.

          Liked by 1 person

    • kvilia says:

      I have not touched it in days, thanks god. So I’m quietly waiting for it to close the gap and start uptrending. Next leg up should be powerful based on existing pattern.

      Liked by 1 person

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Christine & the OEW Group.
    SPX ~ 3148/49 Pivot confluence next, sideways above 3105, then 3192. https://www.tradingview.com/x/dCw28qlS/

    Liked by 3 people

  9. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

    Like

Comments are closed.