Weekend Report

November 1 2019

It was an excellent week in the equity world this Fed week.  Looking at US markets we see the SPX, Nasdaq, COMPQ, and Dow Jones 30 all breaking out of multiple 1,2 setups to new highs.  Looking at Europe we see similar set ups (though not necessarily the same OEW count) in the German Dax, the Swiss SMI, and the French CAC.

As expected, the US Fed cut its lending rate an additional 0.25%.

SPX opened the week with a gap open to 3032.  The SPX touched 3048 at 10AM Tuesday morning and was then rangebound between 3020 and 3048 until Thursday afternoon when a run up began from 3023.  A 12 pt. gap up on Friday kicked off a nice final day of the week with Friday closing out at 3066.

SPX/DOW moved up 1.47%/1.44% while NDX/NAZ gained 1.64%/1.74%.

On the economic front, Consumer confidence was slightly down.  Advance GDP was higher than expected at 1.9% vs. 1.6% expected.   Non-farm employment was +128K vs. +90K expected.

LONG TERM: Early stages of breakout from consolidation

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred.  We are bullish as long as the 2920 level provides support going forward.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend breakout in progress.

SPX appears to be breaking out of multiple 1,2 formations at this time.  Consequently, there are no changes of our current preferred count.  The new all-time highs appear to have confirmed the previous micro 2 low.  This is a good start for an impulsive structure, ideally the previous 1 wave highs would provide support going forward.  A move below 2893 would invalidate the current Micro wave 1 and Micro wave 2 count.

spxdaily

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 1.15%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 1.08%.

The DJ World index gained 1.32%, and the NYSE gained 1.17%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend but gained 0.5%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 0.81%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.41%

GBTC is in a downtrend but gained 8.6%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.46%.

Have a good week!

 

This entry was posted in Updates. Bookmark the permalink.

496 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. lml25 says:

    Caution:Slow motion selloff in progress.Should increase in intensity,but with massive interference from many CBs and PPT,you never know.The ingredients are there however.GL all.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. Page says:

    NG(UGAZ) huge rally coming up next week …

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Facebook page : Amos Ailanjian

    I try and post few or at least video, Scalping AMD and bought 1,000 shares of Cemtrex Inc. CETX for Nov 19th Earnings.. most likely will be adding to my tiny position on CETX before earnings date. Smartdesk Idea ..

    I use Bollinger Bands along Keltner Channel to gauge Scalp trades.. Gap plays with tight stop.. object to Catch $.20 To $.25 But use stop loss at sane amount..

    Basic Scalping .4 Minute most of time in and out ..

    Might get lucky from time to time catch big wave..

    Gl

    Liked by 1 person

  4. phil1247 says:

    took profit at es 3081 from yesterdays long
    have not reversed to short yet
    3076 is the KEY level

    Like

  5. aahmichael says:

    Yesterday was a repeat of my favorite short setup, which I have previously described countless times. The market gapped up to the confluence of SPX pivot resistance and reversed. (Daily R3=3094; Weekly R2=3096.) That reversal was then followed by a H3BR sell signal at 3092. This setup allowed me get max short, which, for me, is 10x leverage. Average price of short= 3093.55. Current stop= 3094.93.

    The previous occurrences of this setup this year were on 3/4, 5/1, 7/15, 8/22, 8/30, 9/12, and 9/19.

    Liked by 6 people

    • lunker1 says:

      This is a real question. I know you’re very exact so trying to clarify. The signal was given at 2:30 PM at 3092.11 and price hasn’t exceeded that since but your average price is 2093.55. In the past I thought you were very clear that you didn’t front run your signal until it is given. I am anticipating a derogatory response but my intent is merely to clarify your approach.

      Like

  6. So the news of an un named source from an un named source from un un named source that tariffs will be cut didn’t quite get to 3100.

    You might need a more official tweet in the morning.
    I a, the greatest president ever, you are so lucky to have me.(LOL) talks a going great China so wants to make a deal. Your welcome for the new highs in the stock market. Now go buy something.

    Liked by 1 person

    • There is still a chance we get to 3103 as long as 2965 isn’t broken, but it would be hilarious if that’s how we get there. Also possible up move is over. Tomorrow should be fun and entertaining.

      Good luck all see you tomorrow

      Liked by 2 people

  7. Vix Index 21 Trading day Run today, Plus Bollinger Bands moving inside Keltner Channel

    Explosive move soon!

    Be onguard

    Liked by 2 people

  8. fotis2 says:

    Same old same old higher highs and down she goes for the 6th time

    Liked by 1 person

  9. at todays high, i count 7 waves up. As crazy as this market is, this afternoons down move could be 8 and we still could have 1 more high left. Crazy market.

    Liked by 1 person

Comments are closed.