Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

October 26 2019

SPX opened the week up and rallied to reach 3007 by Monday’s close.  Last weeks close was 2986.  Tuesday gapped higher and rallied to 3015 by early afternoon, then declined to finish as an outside day down at 2995.  Wednesday opened lower and made the low of the week at 2991 in the first half hour of trade, then rallied back for the rest of the day to finish at 3005.  Thursday opened with a gap higher and reached 3016 in the first half hour, then reversed and chopped around in a 16 point range for the rest of day, before closing at 3010.  Friday opened lower but quickly reversed and rallied to the high of the week at 3027 before noon, then consolidated for the rest of the day to finish the week at 3022.

SPX/DOW gained 1.22%/0.70% while NDX/NAZ gained 2.04%/1.90%.

On the economic front, Existing and New Home Sales declined while median prices increased.  Durable Goods Orders declined for total and ex-transportation.  EIA Crude Inventories declined.  Consumer Sentiment (final reading) was up from prior month at a bullish 60.5%.

LONG TERM: Uptrend consolidating

wklyreport

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  We modified our long term status to identify that the uptrend is consolidating and that remains until Major wave 3 can clearly breakout of the overlapping wave structure.  Our alternate count for a potential breakdown is posted on the DOW in the public chart list.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

SPX continued the rally this week to reach 3027, just one point shy of the all-time, before pulling back to finish the week at 3022.  The rally was sufficient to confirm a new uptrend and the medium term status has been updated accordingly.  We now have NAZ, NDX and SPX in confirmed uptrends and we’re expecting DOW to follow in the coming days.  Several other key indices have confirmed as well, such as DJW, NYA, TRAN and XLF.  This suggests Micro wave 2 completed at the 2856 low early this month and Micro wave 3 has been ongoing ever since.  Our nominal target for Micro wave 3 would be 1.618x Micro wave 1, which gives 3180.  However, if the rally fails to exceed the 3056 pivot, which is right at Micro wave 3 equal Micro wave 1, then the consolidation pattern that’s been in play since last October will remain.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

Not much has changed short term.  We continue to count three waves up from the Micro wave 2 low as Nano wave i = 2960, Nano wave ii = 2893 and Nano wave iii in progress.  Nano wave iii has now extended beyond the length of Nano wave i, which further suggests an impulsive pattern is underway.  The next level to watch for a potential target is 3061, which is the 1.618x ratio.  A retrace back to 2960 would warn that another subdivision may be in play, while below 2893 would invalidate the impulse.

Short term support is at the 2995 and 2984 pivots.  Resistance is at the 3033 and 3046 pivots.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 1.48%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.44%.

The DJ World index gained 1.31%, and the NYSE gained 1.07%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and lost 0.29%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 5.18%

Gold is in an uptrend and lost 0.75%

GBTC is in a downtrend and gained 4.75%.

The USD is in a downtrend and gained 0.61%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

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427 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. robslob64 says:

    OEW is not a day traders blog.

    I believe it has a stated goal of tracking the longer term end of market direction.

    It is my sincere hope that we continue to have good dialogue around near / longer term market direction on this blog.

    There is another blog for day traders and is very good for that…can we just have day traders post counts etc there while this blog stays focused on OEW based on its founders original intent?

    Thank you all for your consideration of this request.
    Rob

    Liked by 4 people

    • M Wags says:

      Rob, you make a terrific suggestion and it is one that I have mentioned on more than one occasion. For the betterment of this blog and its “health”, Phil should have no problem taking his “day-trading” calls back to Lunker’s blog. If people want to follow DH day-trading, simply head to Lunker’s and leave this blog for its INTENDED PURPOSE.

      Liked by 4 people

    • fionamargaret says:

      Tony did suggest a limit of 4 posts/day, and was a bit nonplussed (to say the least) when Phil approached each new person I had invited to the site, to follow DH.
      Ethics, anyone….

      Liked by 1 person

      • M Wags says:

        Fiona, I remember how when I first showed up….Lunker was the “3 Post Limit” enforcer.

        But for some reason, his buddy Phil was exempt.
        😀

        Liked by 2 people

    • torehund says:

      Day trading skills are good to have when entering a position intermediate term or even long term. To be a complete trader long and short term skills is as imporant as defence and offence, you need both…In Tonys time there was a blend, lets keep it this way. And the intermediate and long termers like myself will have to contibute more.

      Liked by 2 people

    • h66h says:

      Hi Rob, do you have a link to this day traders’ blog? Thanks!

      Liked by 1 person

    • robslob64 says:

      My intent is not to call anybody out as I see everyone’s input as valuable, even if I don’t agree gathering as many different perspectives has always led to better analysis.

      A little more Dr. Spock and a little less Copt. Kirk

      😀

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Here’s Ray Dalio, latest interview with David Rubenstein

    Of course these DH people don’t need to watch this.
    They already know tons more than Ray Dalio (net worth $18 Billion),
    or David Rubenstein ( net worth $1.8 Billion)

    Certainly we don’t need to listen to people who have done it.
    Made the money.
    No, of course not.
    We need to listen to the DH folks (who probably have near zero assets)
    to lead us out of the financial wilderness.

    What a waste of a once pretty good webblog.

    Liked by 4 people

    • M Wags says:

      Am I the only one that finds the IRONY palpable ….

      that a guy that sold out of all of his bonds back in April and missed a massive move from 2.6% down to 1.44% by August; and who compounded that terrible move by telling everyone to short bonds in May – – – is now bashing a macro-fund manager with $160 Billion under management that is down 6% as of this past August…. on some bad INTEREST RATE bets?

      You just cant make this stuff up.

      It’s comical.
      😀

      Liked by 3 people

    • sixpack says:

      Tom, you keep insisting that people do their own homework, yet you keep pimping ray dalio and paul tudor jones to support your position. I mean which is it, do your own homework, or is it defer to others outdated second hand quotes? Is it going to be robert kiyosaki next?

      Liked by 1 person

  3. phil1247 says:

    ok folks
    time for pizza and beer
    see ya tomorrow

    lets continue to cash in tomorrow
    and all week long

    looks like its SLEEPY time for the bears LOL

    Liked by 3 people

  4. M Wags says:

    So now we are being told by the blog’s most active poster that there’s NO DIFFERENCE in managing large sums of money…

    “just means that the losses are that much greater when wrong nothing else”

    No.

    It means that there are only a handful of MARKETS that a money manager like Dalio can trade/invest in due to LIQUIDITY ISSUES.

    That should be obvious.

    But apparently its not.

    Liked by 1 person

    • aahmichael says:

      He’s a clueless clown. First of all, serious investors with real money measure their gains and losses in percentages, not in absolute dollars. Secondly, when money managers the caliber of Dalio have drawdowns, that’s the time when serious investors with real money want to ADD money to the fund. Of course, the blog’s clueless clown has no money to add to anything, because, according to him, after selling all of his bonds in mid-April, which represented 95% of his investment portfolio, and keeping that money in cash until the end of August, he then locked it all up in a $100k 2.92% 7 year CD. Turns out that the blog’s self declared investment genius depends on his monthly SS checks to live.

      Liked by 5 people

  5. phil1247 says:

    Ray Dalio’s Flagship Fund Takes a Rare Tumble | Chief …
    https://www.ai-cio.com › News › Risk
    Aug 30, 2019 – Pure Alpha, which clocked a 14% advance in 2018, has lost 6% thus far this year. This year isn’t shaping up to be the best for hedge fund impresario Ray Dalio’s investments. His flagship Pure Alpha is down 6% through August 23.

    DOW up big

    DALIO … down 6%

    we dont need no stinkin money manglers

    DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK !

    Liked by 4 people

    • kevinm76 says:

      This is what happens when somebody is always looking for another 2008 like him. He might be a guru or whatever but his negativity has caused his negative returns this year. And No Ray, this is not anything like the late 1930’s. What a tool lol

      Like

      • Yeah, laughing out loud.
        really funny. Hysterical.
        How many billions do you have???
        OK, who’s the tool here???

        Liked by 2 people

        • kevinm76 says:

          You may judge somebody by how much money they have. I don’t. Furthermore Tom, you have no idea who I am. Now I think you’re the tool now.

          Liked by 2 people

          • OK, who are you?
            And all I mean is: how much money do you have under management???
            ***
            When I got my first Securities license, the principal pounded a very small humility lesson into me. I got it, That was 40 years ago.
            You obviously have no idea what I am talking about.

            Like

        • kevinm76 says:

          Tom I don’t think I made myself clear here. I don’t care what you have achieved or how much you manage nor am I interested in a “I have more than you” spat. I care more what is in the mind/character of any given person, regardless of money or social position they have. Constant negativity from anybody I see is deemed a low quality person. Good day

          Liked by 5 people

      • phil1247 says:

        agree kevin

        the more money a person manages
        just means that the losses are that much greater when wrong
        nothing else

        Liked by 3 people

      • M Wags says:

        Funny how people take potshots at a guy that is managing $160 BILLION in a MACRO FUND that was reportedly down 6% as of August 23rd due to some bets made on INTEREST RATES.

        Contrast this with posters here that cant even hold anything overnight, let alone for more than 30 minutes.

        Not too mention someone that has one of the worst BOND calls Ive ever seen in the blogoshere….telling everyone that Bonds were a massive SHORT in May at 2.40%

        The yield on the 10 year collapsed to 1.44% just three months later.

        My guess is that such a loss would have been far more than 6% of one’s account had they actually shorted Bonds.

        Like

        • aahmichael says:

          Wags, you must have missed Phil’s original bond call in mid-April at 2.60. That’s when he told everyone to sell all of their bonds. Then a few weeks later, at 2.40, he said it was the short of a lifetime.

          Liked by 1 person

      • M Wags says:

        “Always looking for another 2008”

        Huh Kevin?
        Since when did Dalio say he’s looking for another 2008?

        Sorry, but youre mistaken. He’s not looking for another 2008 or crash in the economy or market. He’s simply looking for a “sag”.

        Like

        • allen kimble says:

          Ok..i guess an almost 50% decline in the Dow Jones was a “sag” in 1938? Lol…got it lmao!!!

          Look, dalio is dead wrong and will continue to be. One should never listen to those macro gurus. They love talking up their book. His ideas are legit. However the fed beat him to it by studying up on the great depression and the 1938 debacle caused by lack of liquidity.

          Liked by 1 person

    • Google says the guy’s net worth is $18.7 Billion.
      He started at zero.
      Do you have any idea what a “quiet moment” is?

      Liked by 2 people

      • phil1247 says:

        tom
        when you post something
        be prepared to be challenged on it
        hardly anyone agreed with me
        when i kept saying 3057 all year long
        a so called money mangler
        thought he had the CORRECT ewave count

        even tho i told him he was wrong
        ALL year long

        Liked by 1 person

  6. phil1247 says:

    money manglers have been shorting this monster bull and getting massacred

    just be thankful they are not mangling your money … LOL

    new extension long in force for SPX
    watch the money manglers try to short it again
    just as they did
    all the way up
    all year long
    even after i warned them it was
    STRAIGHT up from 2500 in january….

    Liked by 2 people

    • phil1247 says:

      look to take profits on a
      SPIKE up to ES 3072 target …..

      then we will see if we get panic buying with a blast thru target
      or a pullback to buy
      money manglers dont understand how to trade short term
      that is their downfall

      Liked by 1 person

      • kevinm76 says:

        Phil, whats your target for End of year?

        Liked by 1 person

        • phil1247 says:

          kevin
          it doesnt work that way
          there is no time variable .. only price
          if you look back when i said straight up to 3057 in january at 2500
          it was initially straight up
          but slowed down

          Liked by 1 person

          • kevinm76 says:

            I get that and agree. Just saying that I think the street is going to squeeze it higher until year end. Lots of people are out of this rally and many are “still” shorting it. Chasing it till year end will be visible. I have no target myself but think it go higher than most think it can go.

            Liked by 1 person

          • phil1247 says:

            kevin

            i can only tell you what is possible
            spx 3124
            and 3208
            are the targets that have been validated

            but i trade short term and dont worry about that too much
            because the risk is huge ………..
            very short term
            its straight up above ……….
            wait for it …..
            spx 3057… i kid you not 🙂

            Liked by 2 people

          • aahmichael says:

            More revisionist nonsense. Phil has been calling for 3050 since January 2018, when SPX hit 2873. He continued the same call thoughout 2018, which means he was on the wrong side of the 20% decline in Q4 2018. So, it took 21 months and a 20% drawdown for Phil’s call to make a 6.4% profit. Such a deal.

            Liked by 2 people

          • phil1247 says:

            why are you still here ?
            you promised to leave forever
            dont you keep your word?

            Liked by 1 person

        • phil1247 says:

          EW TARGETS kevin ?

          maybe you should ask the money mangler
          who told Tony that his ew count was in error
          and was trying to school Tony on the ew count in force

          you cant make this stuff up kevin
          its too hilarious

          Liked by 1 person

          • fionamargaret says:

            Really, it was always mentioned as you that caused Tony’s calculation in error. (which he quickly recognized and changed).
            He had spent his life perfecting his work, and did not deserve a pipsqueak to come to his site and cause such consternation for him and his followers.
            .

            Like

  7. Gregory Ewanizky says:

    Nice conversation on this blog for a change. Thank you all

    Liked by 1 person

  8. lml25 says:

    Mr C said,”a finish of DJT of over 11,200 is needed to confirm a next big uptrend.”

    Liked by 3 people

  9. A poster here yesterday asked me if I like Gold as an investment.
    As I am not in the business of providing investment advice, I will just provide two simple links below.
    At which point, any reader can simply decide, which is a better source of investment advice: the names below (with published results), or the very prominent DH traders (without published results) on this heretofore Elliott Wave blog.

    Ray Dalio says gold will be a top investment …
    July 17, 2019

    “I think one of the best trades is gonna be gold. If I had to pick my favorite [bet] for the next 12 to 24 months, it’d probably be gold”
    Paul Tudor Jones
    June 21, 2019

    Liked by 2 people

    • M Wags says:

      Tom, I was Paul’s floor broker on the Comex in 1986 when he was just getting going and had $30 million under management.

      It was tough getting a few minutes of his time when I came back up to the office after the gold close, but when I did….it was extremely valuable.

      He was constantly “testing” the markets to see if he was right. Had massive balls and wasnt afraid to be wrong. Pretty humble too!

      Liked by 3 people

      • I’ve read that every day Jones goes in to work, he assumes that every investment decision he has in his portfolio is a gigantic blunder.
        Guys like Dalio and Jones are in the Majors.
        By comparison, all of us here are playing sand lot ball.
        And at least I know it, you as well, and some other posters here too
        But the big noisy posters here have no idea.
        Just navel gazing, 24X7. Look at me…
        Creates a very poor atmosphere for those here trying to do honest work.

        Liked by 3 people

        • M Wags says:

          Very true Tom.

          Paul had this amazing ability to look for “analog” patterns between markets and size up sentiment.

          He also had the humility to repeatedly ask himself …. “What am I missing???” when he was wrong.

          Paul knew that active traders were only right about 55% of the time. It was what he did with the “other” 45% of his trades that was awe inspiring.

          He could admit that he was wrong and get flat like nobody’s business. Hos ability to reverse himself was incredible. I watched him do it in the S&P repeatedly.

          Liked by 2 people

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