October 19 2019
Thanks goes to the OEW group for this report.
SPX opened the week flat, and moved up through Thursday making a high for the week at 3008 in the SPX cash before 10AM CST. The open on Friday at 3000 marked the high for the day with a low of 2976 made at noon. The week closed out with the SPX at 2986.
SPX/DOW moved 0.54%/-0.17% while NDX/NAZ gained 0.31%/0.40%.
On the economic front, Retail Sales declined. Unemployment was flat at 214K compared to 210K the previous week.
LONG TERM: Uptrend consolidation continues, no breakouts or breakdowns
In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009. The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016. Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018. Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves. However, we maintain our cautious status that the uptrend may be weakening until Major wave 3 can clearly breakout of this overlapping structure. A breakout above the September micro 1 high at 3020, or breakdown below the micro 2 low at 2859 should clear things up. Consequently, we’re still tracking our alternate count on DOW in the public chart list.
MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend likely underway
SPX again tested the top of last week’s range and found resistance at the 3008 level. The rally remains above EMA resistance and the 2970 level should provide initial support. Consequently, there are no changes of our current preferred count. We now have qualified medium term subdivisions that suggest three waves up from the tentative Micro wave 2 low. This is a good start for an impulsive structure, however more price action is needed to further qualify it. A move below 2893 would invalidate the current Micro wave 1 and Micro wave 2 count.
Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 0.62%.
European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 1.89%.
The DJ World index gained 0.89%, and the NYSE gained 0.62%.
Bonds are in a downtrend and lost 0.04%
Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 1.52%
Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.36%
GBTC is in a downtrend and lost 11%.
The USD is in a downtrend and lost 1.02%.
Comments are shut down at this time. They may be reopened at a later date. There is a lot going on in my personal life at the moment which is preventing me staying on top of the comments.
Thanks for everyone’s continues support.
Have a good week!