Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

September 28 2019

SPX opened the week down 10 points to 2982 in the first half hour of trade, rallied back to positive territory, before closing Monday unchanged at 2992.   Tuesday gapped up and made the high of the week at 3008 within the first half hour, then reversed into a sharp decline to reach 2958 by the afternoon, then bounced and traded in a 20 point range before finishing with an outside day down at 2967.   Wednesday opened flat but quickly declined to take out Tuesday’s low and reach 2953 within the first half hour, then reversed with a strong rally for the rest of the day to finish up at 2985. Thursday traded down to reach 2964 before noon, then rallied back to even, before reversing in the last half hour to close off on the day at 2978.  Friday opened higher but reversed and declined to find the low of the week at 2946 in the late afternoon, then rallied into the close to finish the week at 2962.

For the week, SPX/DOW lost 1.01%/0.43% while NDX/NAZ lost 1.81%/2.19%.

On the economic front, New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Personal Income and Spending, PCE and core-PCE were all higher.  Consumer Confidence declined, while Consumer Sentiment moved higher and remains bullish at 58.2% as we read the data.  Q2 GDP third estimate was unchanged at 2.0%.  The ECRI weekly growth indictor moved up again and is now just below the zero line at -0.23%.

LONG TERM: Uptrend may be weakening

spxwkly

 

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor and Minute waves.  However, we maintain our cautious status that the uptrend may be weakening until Major wave 3 can clearly breakout of this overlapping structure.  Consequently, we’re still tracking our alternate count on DOW in the public chart list.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

SPX extended the decline with a large outside reversal down on Tuesday, a rally on Wednesday followed by additional declines to find the low of the week at 2946 late Friday.  A small bounce into the close at 2962 was not sufficient to signal the end of this two week pullback, which suggests Micro wave 4 is still in play.  As mentioned last week, we have a dilemma with the wave count due to scale uncertainty pending further price action.  But until this pullback can overlap 2940, we’re maintaining our current structure as Micro wave 1 = 2940, Micro wave 2 = 2892, Micro wave 3 = 3021 and Micro wave 4 in progress.  This count requires a large fifth wave in order to achieve our logical target for Minute wave iii at the 3300 level.  The uptrend continues to hold an impulse structure but is getting sloppy with this extended 4th wave.  An overlap of Micro wave 1 would be concerning and suggest the medium term uptrend may be weakening.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

Using our short term techniques we can count three more small waves down this week from our Nano wave b high, [3022]>2953>2990>2946.  There are several ways to consider the entire structure from the Micro 3 wave top at 3021, so we’re waiting for additional price action to sort that out.  It could be five overlapping waves from Micro wave 3, or an additional small wave down to complete the irregular a-b-c structure mentioned last week.  Micro wave 4 will be invalidated if it overlaps Micro wave 1 at 2940.

Short term support is at the 2929 and 2884 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2957 and 2984 pivots.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 2.40%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 1.21%.

The DJ World index lost 1.19%, and the NYSE lost 0.93%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and gained 0.48%

Crude oil is in an uptrend and lost 3.75%

Gold is in an uptrend and lost 0.57%

GBTC is in a downtrend and lost 21.97%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.64%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Thanks for your patience!

Have a good week!

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620 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. fionamargaret says:

    Still the same….

    $SPX down to 2137.76…..many folks think DB at 2340, but if we get good momentum to the downside it can blow past there…maybe even to 1800…
    UVXY, TVIX will pay off in spades if we get that momentum down….
    TLT up to 225..work out the yield on the 30 if it goes there…..(this is an interactive site) !!
    10 year yield down to 1.36, 1.25, 1.00
    GLD up to 199
    SLV up to 26.5
    UUP ($US) up to 36
    EUO (short euro)…..DNR

    Check your own charts, and see what you think…do well.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

    Liked by 1 person

  3. gary leibowitz says:

    All ending well in this dictatorship. Graham now demanding they expose the whistle blower. Imagine demanding Biden and son be looked into for nepotism. Funny isn’t it. Can anyone here see why? Seems Orwell would never go this far in writing a script like this. We are no longer a republic. We have a politburo and dictator tht will kill anyone that gets out of line. But hey i exaggerate. You will be reading history books on this and pretend you were even concerned.

    This time in history will define our demise. Sill rant isn’t it. like all my other ones? Carry on.

    Please delete this post because it is inappropriate for virgin ears.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Tim Waters says:

      Same infinite ranting and lame predictions you had with the Mueller report, Cohen, Kavanaugh…… blah.
      Guess what, Gary? Donald Trump is going to be re-elected. Enjoy?

      Liked by 7 people

    • robslob64 says:

      Dear Mr Leibowitz,

      Please seek help.

      Sincerely,
      Rob

      Liked by 2 people

    • E says:

      Watched a skit on SNL the other day. Was pretty funny. Three of them in the panel were having a heated discussion putting out the facts about all the negative things Trump has been up to and how he won’t get reelected. The fourth guy just agreed with everything and said “meh… He’ll get elected.”. This is like the state of the whole world. No matter what happens there is just status quo and complacency. Americans asking for change for years eventually resulting in Trade wars. Who cares. Chinese asking Americans to use more respectful means to negotiate. Who
      cares.Millions expressing their dissatisfaction in HK. Who cares. a market driven 95+% by buy backs and fake money. Who cares. Rate inversion. Who cares. Missile attack on saudi. Who cares.

      Liked by 2 people

    • gary leibowitz says:

      Facts and reality seem to be missing on this board. no wonder so many lose money. in fact my rants were so outrageous that they came true? Wait a minute i deal in logic and if my crazy rants from THREE YEARS ago was predicted by me that is like declaring an asteroid will strike earth on January 13th 2021 at 3 pm and happening? WOW lucky guess. You can stick with looking in the mirror while i view what is really there. FACT Trump has violated dozens of laws. I DARE anyone to actually defend FACTS. You can play the politburo tune and divert and skirt but this is very serious stuff going on today. it will likely result in permanent damage to the republic. I have odds now of less than 50/50 that even hard core slam dunk facts of breaking the law will never allow the Senate to uphold the constitution. you talk about conspiracies yet right here and now it has been hijacked. PROOF: Trump has mouthed his own admission of CRIMES. Paper trail and eye witnesses seem not enough for you. How does anyone fight an Orwellian universe?

      I am constantly astonished on how few here can bet on technical charts and disseminate data but when it comes to high crimes you prefer absurd fairy tales. Trump speaks and everyone hears different things. trump lies daily and everyone thinks that’s cute. He asks his loyalists to commit crimes for him and even go to jail and everyone thinks thats the way it always was.

      If you really want to know how easy it was for me to be so freakin upset 3 years ago it’s because i understand Trump and YOU the people. Understand in an analytical way because common sense for me showed a wolf that had thinly draped sheep skin over it. I mean pathetic but here we are debating if black is white and how can dismantling of the USA system of government possibly affect markets. you people are so funny.

      BUT like my 3 years gone by speech in another 3 you will be remembering your outrage. How did people accept Hitler so easily and his extermination plan? Certainly has nothing to do with technology. I warned 3 years ago this day will happen. I have taken my MEDS and the world still looks the same. Good luck with market analysis if you are this bad with reality.

      Like

      • Jim Guthery says:

        This is not a political board.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Gary Lewis says:

          do you even read her stuff? Saying the same thing for years.

          Like

        • gary leibowitz says:

          Then don’t BET on Trump Tweets or his action on trade. or the impeachment debacle that is about to happen. It seems though that everything i mentioned about market behavior has happened. trade War, check. Tweets, check. How do you explain POLITICAL forces affecting markets? Try telling the market to ignore this. the last TWEET caused a one minute delay before the market swooned. Just more coincidences. by all means shut out the impeachment testimony because it is from the DEEP STATE.

          In all my rants anticipating THIS MOMENT not a single person here dared to acknowledge the relevance and accuracy. NOT ONE! The silent hold your nose and shut your eyes majority. You represent the GOP. Congrats! History will condemn this period as very dark and YOU will either pretend you were horrified or at worse didn’t vote for him. My predictions have been pretty impressive and I have “TIMESTAMPED” proof. I will use another site to get my 3 year old rant and see how it [plays out today. Ta ta….

          Upset? why? it has no bearing on markets.

          I am absolutely sure no trade war this past year and markets would be much higher today. MUCH! But that can’t be true. EW predicts the future and is static. All knowing Elliot. BTW I am not and have not been a BEAR on the economy. I was one of perhaps 3 people on this board that shouted RALLY in early 2016. Ridiculed OFF because I gave my future scenario with bias over our dictator.

          I need this day to stay positive. if it does i anticipate a 4 day swoon. If wrong mid-day Tuesday i take my bet off the table.

          Like

  4. Thanks EWA group for your sharing your analyses and comments. I guess there is no update this week. My thoughts:

    Like

  5. schizo1688 says:

    I only follows the best !! And I know who is the best EW counter in here 3-6-9 months

    Like

    • mcgcapital says:

      Profitable traders don’t follow, they think for themselves…

      Liked by 3 people

      • schizo1688 says:

        I am suck at EW , I don’t even want to try it , at least I know my limitations .. unlike some people here keep posting .. hahahahaha

        Liked by 4 people

        • mcgcapital says:

          Probably because EW doesn’t work lol.. might as well just give the money to charity if trying to trade off that!

          Liked by 2 people

        • kevinm76 says:

          You kinda suck at English too…lol

          Liked by 2 people

        • swamper1 says:

          schizo, its ok. you’re making money and the self proclaimed money/investment manglers are not. they come here to bash Phil and DH trading when they haven’t a clue on how to use it. like Phil says, its much easier to criticize than to put in the work and learn how to make money. and it’s certainly ok to follow the lead horses until you’re 100% confident in your trading. commentary from guys like phil, asa. kv, and lunk will help keep you on the right side.

          Liked by 5 people

          • M Wags says:

            Swamper,

            Just curious.

            What does DH trading have to do with Elliott Wave OEW?

            Liked by 1 person

          • mcgcapital says:

            Even if we assume all of those guys are great traders.. are they going to post every time they do something and are you going to sit here refreshing the page hoping they do? Bottom line is, you need total control and understanding to make your own decisions. Copying others is reserved for unprofitable traders

            Liked by 5 people

          • phil1247 says:

            mark
            as i always say

            you have do do your own homework

            Liked by 1 person

          • M Wags says:

            Why would anyone “follow” someone else?

            Is it because it gives you someone to blame when the trade goes bad???
            Or is it because of just being lazy?

            Why would anyone not put in the work and develop a methodology that helps you understand how a trades works, from beginning to end?

            Makes absolutely no sense to me.

            Bizarre.

            Like

  6. Trannies looking to take a knee here (i.e, tired )

    I just don’t get the exuberance on this MB.
    Maybe the DH traders don’t need to have a clue to make money.
    What a great system that must be.

    bears are trapped now …
    time for hibernation is almost here

    Liked by 4 people

  7. sixpack says:

    Someone was posting about the TSX a month or so ago….how it was hitting new highs. Does anyone remember who that was? Thx

    Like

    • M Wags says:

      A 70 year old Canadian troll from Danerics named Bobo.

      Like

      • sixpack says:

        Ok. Now I remember that. I was gonna ask him how the economy n Canada is. I’ve been looking at some longterm charts and looks to me like Canada and Australia may be getting ready to come out of hibernation. They are getting close to or even right up against some very longterm downtrend lines.

        Liked by 2 people

        • tomasso60 says:

          hi guys – I am a Canadian not yet 70 (a few more years to go) and the economy is totally dependant upon the US – Mexico and then the far east. (plus inter provincial trade which has major issues of its own)
          we have way too much regulation – takes way too long to get a pipeline built (if ever) due to appeasing environmentalists – indigenous folks – plus huge provincial regulations. and to top it all off – we have socialists in power that cause us to pay more and more in taxes.
          it is tough but there is hope for a change with the upcoming federal election.
          however – being in Vancouver (born and raised) is somewhat of a blessing due to nice mild weather (keep fingers crossed) and relatively clean (though we have are share of homelessness and the such – much like seattle and san fran.) I personally think that if Canada were to get a Conservative federal government in power (not a minority which may be) then the time to invest would be good.

          Liked by 3 people

          • kvilia says:

            tomasso,
            I have a question for you. Would you rather keep your existing Canadian government or prefer new PM, who is an arrogant bully tweeting non stop, pro free economy and deregulation and less entitlement?
            Not starting political discussion, just curios of a personal opinion in hypothetic situation. Also, this question is for tomasso.

            Like

          • tomasso60 says:

            Canada needs to reign in its spending overall and start to get back to basics and balance budgets – because it works better for the long term.
            as for me – I would prefer fiscal prudence along with mild social programs that are balanced towards all age groups vs. a couple.
            lower tax rates – prefer tax on consumption or flat
            I think there will be a minority government

            Like

      • phil1247 says:

        another PERSONAL attack ?

        Like

        • lml25 says:

          Take a nap phil.

          Liked by 4 people

        • maxcherry12 says:

          “M Wags says:
          October 5, 2019 at 1:03 pm
          A 70 year old Canadian troll from Danerics named Bobo.”

          he’s a 60 yr old troll from Danerics with at least half-a-dozen screen names and to top it off he’s been living in his parents house (Ca.) for the last 20 yrs
          that’s a FACT remember that when he posts those equity screen shots

          Liked by 1 person

          • phil1247 says:

            half a dozen screen names ?…
            max
            try 15 email names hounding me every day about EXAS and showing me
            the exact same 2 mill account balance screen shots ,,,,,,,
            when i told him i wasnt impressed and mine was over triple that
            he hounded me to show him my account balance ….
            after 2 weeks of this nonsense i finally showed him

            never heard from him again

            Like

  8. sixpack says:

    Prometheuss – I responded to your post down below. Wasn’t sure if you would see it or not. I’m curious to know what you think after you examine the two time periods using the indexes. Thx

    Like

  9. gary leibowitz says:

    I am looking out on a one way mirror while the people here only see a reflection of themselves. Astonishing that today there is hard evidence of all top officials in this government commuting a crime or complicit with it. These are facts like the hush money CHECKS. 3 years of this and the talking point supports an Orwellian narrative. How to you think i came to the conclusion on DAY ONE of Trump presidency? Was i psychic? We have today absolute proof that the president, VP, AG, and State dept. head committed a crime. SLAM DUNK proof. We already had prood of Trumps extortion with China, diverting military convoy to his GOLF and HOTEL complex, secretly tried to lift Russian sanctions. ON and on yet you can’t talk about it here and if you do it will be denied.

    All i can say is if you can follow a system that told you in 2016 that the sky was falling and now be on board with an 11 year bull that no one sees an end to i know which side I will stay on.

    The rats are now coming out and nothing the GOP, TRUMP or the press can do to place the genie back in the bottle. The only question remains is will the GOP ignore dictatorship and play the role of a politburo. History will place this time. right now, as the most shameful in our short time as a democracy. YOU will be remembered as the ones that placed the covers over your head while it was happening. So I guess it is not important that we are now just like Russia in every conceivable way. I was laughed at 3 years ago for been a kook and emotionally unstable. How does my rants then compare to what is happening today? Stay behind the one way mirror and you will get thru this fine.

    I based my next week move on chart pattern ONLY. I think the combination of this massive distraction will add to the push lower.

    Tired of defending the Sun is the center of the solar system. If on Tuesday the drop doesn’t start I will be wrong for the third time and lose some money. I play what i see. I am curious to see if wall street ignores impeachment charges against both top 2 individuals.

    Liked by 1 person

    • robslob64 says:

      One would have to ignorant of history or extremely naive / biased to believe it has only gone on for 3 years.

      Try 3 decades.

      Peace

      Liked by 2 people

      • gary leibowitz says:

        I deal in reality, facts and analytical assumptions based on those. You deal in fantasy conspiracies while this stark reality is worse than anything you could have imagined. One man single handed corrupted the whole system. he placed individuals as corrupt as himself, the GOP stayed silent the whole time. Facts of misdeed were seen for 3 whole years that any of which should have impeached him. Shame on all of us for accepting this.

        Market reality: Look at the SP500 as the trigger. It has a massive FIVE candlestick patterns in the 5 hour chart that are all Positive. All from the last few days. We have the longer term candlestick patterns, 2 in the daily, and 2 in the monthly that portray strong negative expectations. the fright is here and now. This next 2 days will tell which wins out for immediate future. A continued spike move lasting a full week forward will mean we are setting up for the granddaddy of all crashes. If we stall early next week that should result in another “normal” deep retrace but no crash.

        Unlike Phil who miraculously always gets it right I am a mere mortal trying to catch the pulse of billions invested on a daily basis. If we once again fail to drop next week I look for end of month crash. Either way we are going to see deep drops soon IMO. Using common sense and including every possible technical and fundamental data available, and of course political.

        Like

        • phil1247 says:

          you are a great novelist gary
          but you are just guessing what the market is going to do
          instead of seeing what it actually is doing and acting on it

          …you say a straight up move will lead to a crash
          absolutely not!
          the most bullish thing a market can do is go straight up

          Liked by 3 people

          • gary leibowitz says:

            You guess ALL THE TIME. You “see” a trigger but it can reverse immediately. You have no more control than anyone else. You can of course have an automatic buy and sell on these triggers but that also can be fraught with false moves. If you stick to your micro method without the silly bias and allow others to play their game the way they see fit perhaps people will accept your smug attitude. I have played this gamble for decades. I am net way ahead of the game. call it lucky but I have no patience for slow moving charts. I “guess” the timing of those reversals based on many factors that at times gives me an intuitive edge. I have had long steak moves of catching many waves both up and down.

            I don’t need or want your advise. In fact if you prefer I will gladly post my yearly balance sheet statement for the brokerage house for this year, last, or any full year you desire. -and- you match it. I have posted my actual bets on sites that are timestamped. I do this to stay honest with myself.

            Please explain my stupid remark in early 2016 when 95% of this board saw a crash black hole event and I declared the opposite. How about my dire demented, take a pill remark on trump when he won the election. How about my trade war remark last year stating unequivocally Elliot will be useless during these times. My insistence that if you use specific TWEETS it will reward you more than any tool.

            THESE ARE FACTS. You can only declare today that I have beaten the odds and developed an astronomical lucky streak. YET there we are with smug Phil pretending i didn’t make impossible calls that no one else did. and it came to pass. So please Phil just stick to your own story and bud out of others.

            My prerogative to lose all my money without your help. YOU have amnesia more times than i can count. A man that never admits to being wrong. Do you really think i want to follow that path?

            Like

    • torehund says:

      Conditions are grumpy for sure, almost in all respects. But bears are too numerous to be profitable. 90 percent of stocks are still in a downtrend, 10 percent stock community is currently what makes the indices. Needs a revolution there too.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Valerie wapiti says:

      what do you wholeheartedly enjoy doing? What makes you spontaneously laugh? Have you ever found yourself outside, alone when a storm hit that made you realize and accept that you are a tiny particle in this universe. Nothing more.

      Like

  10. kvilia says:

    Am I crazy or is it the liberal portion of the blog are the attackers on Phil and Co? LOL
    I could never understand how compassionate people could be so passive aggressive.

    Liked by 2 people

Comments are closed.