Provided by the OEW Group
September 28 2019
SPX opened the week down 10 points to 2982 in the first half hour of trade, rallied back to positive territory, before closing Monday unchanged at 2992. Tuesday gapped up and made the high of the week at 3008 within the first half hour, then reversed into a sharp decline to reach 2958 by the afternoon, then bounced and traded in a 20 point range before finishing with an outside day down at 2967. Wednesday opened flat but quickly declined to take out Tuesday’s low and reach 2953 within the first half hour, then reversed with a strong rally for the rest of the day to finish up at 2985. Thursday traded down to reach 2964 before noon, then rallied back to even, before reversing in the last half hour to close off on the day at 2978. Friday opened higher but reversed and declined to find the low of the week at 2946 in the late afternoon, then rallied into the close to finish the week at 2962.
For the week, SPX/DOW lost 1.01%/0.43% while NDX/NAZ lost 1.81%/2.19%.
On the economic front, New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Personal Income and Spending, PCE and core-PCE were all higher. Consumer Confidence declined, while Consumer Sentiment moved higher and remains bullish at 58.2% as we read the data. Q2 GDP third estimate was unchanged at 2.0%. The ECRI weekly growth indictor moved up again and is now just below the zero line at -0.23%.
LONG TERM: Uptrend may be weakening
In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009. The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016. Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018. Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor and Minute waves. However, we maintain our cautious status that the uptrend may be weakening until Major wave 3 can clearly breakout of this overlapping structure. Consequently, we’re still tracking our alternate count on DOW in the public chart list.
MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend
SPX extended the decline with a large outside reversal down on Tuesday, a rally on Wednesday followed by additional declines to find the low of the week at 2946 late Friday. A small bounce into the close at 2962 was not sufficient to signal the end of this two week pullback, which suggests Micro wave 4 is still in play. As mentioned last week, we have a dilemma with the wave count due to scale uncertainty pending further price action. But until this pullback can overlap 2940, we’re maintaining our current structure as Micro wave 1 = 2940, Micro wave 2 = 2892, Micro wave 3 = 3021 and Micro wave 4 in progress. This count requires a large fifth wave in order to achieve our logical target for Minute wave iii at the 3300 level. The uptrend continues to hold an impulse structure but is getting sloppy with this extended 4th wave. An overlap of Micro wave 1 would be concerning and suggest the medium term uptrend may be weakening.
Using our short term techniques we can count three more small waves down this week from our Nano wave b high, >2953>2990>2946. There are several ways to consider the entire structure from the Micro 3 wave top at 3021, so we’re waiting for additional price action to sort that out. It could be five overlapping waves from Micro wave 3, or an additional small wave down to complete the irregular a-b-c structure mentioned last week. Micro wave 4 will be invalidated if it overlaps Micro wave 1 at 2940.
Short term support is at the 2929 and 2884 pivots. Resistance is at the 2957 and 2984 pivots.
Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 2.40%.
European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 1.21%.
The DJ World index lost 1.19%, and the NYSE lost 0.93%.
Bonds are in a downtrend and gained 0.48%
Crude oil is in an uptrend and lost 3.75%
Gold is in an uptrend and lost 0.57%
GBTC is in a downtrend and lost 21.97%.
The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.64%.
Thanks for your patience!
Have a good week!
gdl (from Investorshub) NOVEMBER 2016 (how did i do?)
Wednesday, 11/09/16 12:13:57 PM
Re: None 0
Post # of 291158
Must confess I screwed up on everything BUT managed to make money.
BREXIT PLUS 2. Yup the people that insisted there was a clear path were right. the big turnout of angry uneducated whites did it.
The setup seems locked in on my macro view. The aftermath of this 4 year experiment will not go well. In fact I can guarantee that everyone that was enthusiastic about TRUMP will deny ever being so after his term is up.
His posture is not going to last on a presidential path. his anger and frustration over the HUGE clashes he will have with his own party will become evident. Wall, mass deportation not happening. He plans to spend an enormous amount of money that would make Bush’s spending and debt seem inconsequential. Whether the Republicans go along is up for grabs. His BS on doing well for the people will be shattered immediately with his tax cut for the wealthy and businesses. The trickle down theory on steroids. Watch to see if this isn’t his first agenda.
the platform of the Republican party was the out of control deficit spending. Watch as they forget their pledge. Depression in his term. I still expect it to be 2019 or 2020 when the shit starts hitting the fan.
The HUGE rally I talked about for days unbelievable still seems to be on track. How I managed to not lose money on my big bet is something I have to thank the stars for. I expected a total loss at open. I am now compounding my gains by some 25 percent just on todays action.
Good luck to the bears. I guess if this huge reversal didn’t convince you we were in one powerful up move you must have abandoned all technical work.
Very early in day so I could be wrong on the continued strength. Today is critical for momentum to continue. I have sold my CALLS when we hit plus 15 on SPX. Since I can’t see the current trend and I got a gift for the gods I exit till I can see a normal trend again.
Cr. to CBZ
I’ve noticed that twitter posts don’t load on my W10 computer lately (yours and Intelligent Investing). Anybody know why? Is it my computer or a twitter conspiracy?
i have w 10 and no problem
got to be your settings
Frank, the micro E-mini contracts are on the S&P futures and carry the same commission and fees as the ES contract.
Only making $5.00 per S&P point (vs $50 in the ES) will surely get eaten up by commissions.
IMO, its not even worth contemplating if you are adequately capitalized
Thanks, M! I kinda thought it was probably set up to be a benefit to the broker(age).
if you sold spike up to boll band friday … kudos to us !
i just rebot about a point lower at 145 .13
still looking for 150
then we will see about shorting
continue to sell spikes up to bollinger band
and buy pullbacks until the extension fails
the daily traditional target is at the prior highs
which is now only 2 points above here using ZB
FOS–give the man a cigar–just like at the circus–a winna every time!
The momentum at the 2855 low suggests a retest of that low…
i could show you the ticket
but you know what the terms would be lml
Hey, Phil, I keep getting pop-up ads for Ninja Trader advertising micro-mini contracts for SPY. Know anything about it? I thought it might be a good way to “stick my toe in the water” with you when I come back in January. Sumpin’ different than options for awhile!
frank… i heard of ninja but didnt look into it
are you really done for the year ?
Thanks for the replies, Phil. I’m still holding a hedged position in AMD which expires on the 18th. After that I’m done. Probably miss out on the third wave, but there’s always another day (or is there?). I’m just tired of being stuck on the ‘puter all day. I should be flying with my friends to breakfast right now, but I can only sneak down to the airport for an hour or so before I feel like I need to be back on here!
Tickets can be made up too phil.
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UVXY up to 43
TVIX up to 24.5