Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

September 14 2019

SPX opened the week higher, but quickly reversed to trade down, then rally back to close Monday just one point off last weeks close at 2978.  Tuesday gapped down and made the low of the week at 2957 within the first hour of trade, then proceeded to rally and finish the day back to last weeks close at 2979.  SPX continued to rally Wednesday and Thursday, with an 18 point pullback Thursday morning, to reach the high of the week at 3021 in the afternoon, before finishing the day at 3010.  Friday had a quiet open, then traded in a 14 point range before closing the week at 3007.

For the week, SPX/DOW gained 0.96%/1.57% while NDX/NAZ gained 0.51%/0.91%.

On the economic front, PPI, Core PPI, CPI, Core CPI and Retail Sales were all higher, while Retail Sales ex-Autos was flat.  Consumer Sentiment was higher and remains bullish at 57%.  The ECRI weekly growth indictor was up slightly to -2.5%.

LONG TERM: Uptrend may be weakening

spxweekly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  We continue to track our alternate count on DOW in the public chart list.  No change to our long term count on SPX, as Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor and Minute waves.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

SPX continued to rally this week, extending Micro wave 3 of Minute wave iii to a high of 3021 on Thursday before closing the week at 3007.  That gives 129 points so far for Micro wave 3 with no medium term subdivisions.  Most US and international markets we track are now in confirmed uptrends.  XLE, XLV and Hong Kong remain notable exceptions.  Not much to add, as this uptrend continues to show signs of an impulsive structure off the Micro wave 2 low established last week.  Now that Micro wave 3 has exceeded Micro wave 1, there could be 40-50 point pullback at any time.  A much larger decline back to overlap the breakout level of 2940 would be concerning and suggest a corrective structure may still be in play.  Our nominal target for Minute wave iii remains unchanged at the 3200 level.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly.png

Using our short term techniques, we’re counting this Micro wave 3 rally as three small waves up from the Micro wave 2 low at 2892, which gives 2989-2957-3021.  As mentioned last week, we’re tracking several other short term counts as a backup to resolve the choppy price action in August.  We will update the short term count if/when the small wave subdivisions develop such that one of those becomes the more likely pattern.  For now, we have Micro wave 1 = 118 points at 2940, Micro wave 2 = 48 points at 2892 and Micro wave 3 = 129 points at the Thursday high of 3021.  The 32 point pullback internal to Micro wave 3 suggests a small wave subdivision may be developing, however additional price action is needed to sort that out.  Our initial target for Micro wave 3 remains unchanged from last week, at around 3080.

Short term support is at the 2995 and 2984 pivots.  Resistance is at the 3033 and 3046 pivots.  Short term RSI ended the week neutral after reaching overbought levels at the high.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 2.57%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 2.09%.

The DJ World index gained 1.47%, and the NYSE gained 1.48%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an downtrend and lost 2.09%

Crude oil is in a uptrend and lost 2.95%

Gold is in an uptrend and lost 1.06%

GBTC is in a downtrend and lost 2.20%.

The USD is in an uptrend and lost 0.54%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

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343 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. aahmichael says:

    As an addendum and update to my post from yesterday: There was another H3BR at the close yesterday, so I doubled my short, which was already a double of the initial short. That means I have quadrupled my initial short position, and my position size is now maxed out.
    Average price of short = 3003.50.
    Stop on 1st half remains at 3022 because a D3BR sell signal also occurred at the close.
    Stop on 2nd half is 3012.

    aahmichael says:
    September 20, 2019 at 11:43 am
    On a closing basis, SPX has been stuck in an 11 point range for the last 7 days. Yesterday was a literal carbon copy of the 2 sell signals that occurred last Thursday at the exact same prices as last Thursday, and was a repeat of a frequent recurring sell signal pattern that I have mentioned here many times. The market gapped up to the confluence of SPX pivot resistance and reversed. (Monthly R1=3019; Daily R1=3017.) That reversal was then followed by a H3BR sell signal at 3011. The gap up into the 3019 pivot closed and reversed the H3BR stop long that triggered at 3:34PM on Wednesday at 3001. The subsequent H3BR sell at 3011 sell then doubled the short position. Average price of short= 3015. Current stop remains at 3022.
    The previous occurrences of this signal this year were on 3/4, 5/1, 7/15, 8/22, 8/30, and 9/12

    On another note, I like people who think outside the box, and the following study surely does that:

    Liked by 2 people

  2. raymond e kalenda says:

    Quick Note. I am amazed at the variety of wave counts on the net.
    Sure, there are a lot of very good analyst on this board and others…
    So, my point being, and it appears ( could be wrong) but, some are
    calling a top in the 1st-2nd qtr 2020……Yes, the OEW analysis
    appears to be an ongoing Bull market into the fore see able future.
    I am merely point this variety of calls out, since I do not really know.
    In fact I ahve been in cash for several months now…..Bud

    Like

  3. raymond e kalenda says:

    From Bud Fox…agree, with the SPX plots going forward.
    My best est for SPX Bull Market is – it will last until the
    end of the 1st qtr 2020 to the 2nd qtr 2020.. Followed
    but a severe and prolonged Bear market. Yes, great time
    to flip into the SDS, and yes. This major event is many
    months into the 1st to 2nd qtr 2020. That is the best
    market top time estimate….Take care…..Bud

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  4. Page says:

    CL is buy below 55.
    SPX blood bath next week.

    Liked by 1 person

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