Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

August 3 2019

This week SPX stared off down by 14 points within the first hour, then rallied and traded in a narrow range to close Monday just 6 point off last week’s close of 3026.  Tuesday gapped down and declined to 3001, then rallied back to partially fill the gap, but closed down another 10 points to 3010.  Wednesday opened up slightly higher and traded in a narrow range until the Fed announcement to move fed funds lower by 25 basis points.  After the press conference began, the market sold off aggressively to a low of 2958 by 3pm, then rallied and bounced around to finish the day at 2981.  On Thursday, SPX rallied nearly all the way back by noon to pre-Fed levels around 3014, until Tariff Man intervened to announce new tariffs on China.  From there, the market rapidly sold off to end Thursday at 2950, followed by a gap down and further decline on Friday to reach the low of the week at 2914 before noon.  SPX then chopped higher and rallied up to 2944, before settling into the close to finish the week at 2932.  An exciting and volatile week!

For the week, SPX/DOW lost 3.10%/2.60% while NDX/NAZ lost 4.04%/3.92%.

On the economic front, Personal Income and Spending, PCE and Core PCE Price Index, and S&P Case-Shiller Index were all higher.

Next week economic news comes from ISM non-Manufacturing Index, JOLTS, MBA Mortgage Application Index, Crude Oil Inventories and Consumer Credit.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since.  Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend

spxdaily

This week opened down and continued to close down every single day, which generated the largest pullback since Minor wave 2.  The decline was sufficient to confirm a new downtrend.  As a result, our medium term status has been updated, which suggests Minute wave ii is subdividing with an irregular structure.  All four of our key US markets are now in confirmed downtrends, as well most international markets that we track.  We cautioned last week that DOW had not yet confirmed the third wave up, as it peeked in line with our SPX Minute wave i, which turned out to be a good indicator of the pending reversal (see chart below).

djiadaily

We anticipate that a typical decline for this downtrend would be in the 5% range, which suggests there may be more to go.  But 114 points down so far from the irregular top meets minimum requirements for Minute wave ii.   Notice DOW got extremely oversold at the low, the most so since Major wave 2 last December.  We will be watching the short term waves for signs of a bottom in the coming days.  Although we still expect Minor wave 3 to exceed the 3300 level, we will be updating our medium target for Minute wave iii after this downtrend completes.

Medium term, RSI is oversold at the low this week and MACD continues to roll over from a negative cross.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

We updated our short term count to reflect the subdividing Minute wave ii as referenced in the previous section.  This suggests that a complex irregular structure is in play with Micro wave a = 2973, Micro wave b at 3028 and a subdividing Micro wave c in progress with a low of 2914 so far.  As noted last week, the key level of 2976 was broken which triggered the failure of our previous more bullish count.  Now we have Minute wave ii reach within just a point of our 2913 target mentioned in the last couple of reports.  This begs the question of a potential bottom close by and suggests the possibility of at least a meaningful bounce in the near term.  Next target for an extension lower would be the prior small wave at 2875, which is just below our next lower pivot range.

Short term support is at the 2929 and 2884 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2957 pivot and prior support at 2973-2976.  RSI ended the week neutral and has yet to generate a positive divergence off the lows.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 5.54%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 4.04%.

The DJ World index lost 3.07%, and the NYSE lost 2.99%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 1.34%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 0.96%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 2.69%

GBTC is in a downtrend and gained 8.54%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.10%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Sorry for it being late. Been a crazy week!

Have a good week!

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349 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. kvilia says:

    Either pb to the mid Bollinger band and up or breaking the trend line, then pb and up on the green arrow.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Frank Gaggia, Jr. says:

      Nice chart, k! What do the N and P’s mean?

      Like

      • kvilia says:

        Its not me, Frank. Investing.com, N stands for news, P indicates a reversal based on doji reading. I don’t pay attention to them.
        Hopefully this is going to play out for a fifth wave. Well, we know sometimes 5th is truncated, so caution is advised. Bearish below 61.8% low to high=2910.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Frank Gaggia, Jr. says:

          Ok, thanks! I’ve just been pulling in my horns a bit, getting back to more balanced hedge positions for now. Awful fast run-up!

          Like

  2. lml25 says:

    “lml25 says:
    August 8, 2019 at 10:39 am
    These little quick fluctuations are all designed…Meaningless in the big picture. A drop below 9750(below 9700 ideally) on Trannies would mean something to me.See you all after a test of 2938 spx.”
    I have to brag about that one….lol.Now we see if 2825 holds–if not,the trend DOWN is in written in stone.Lots of room between that at 2938 to travel in,but those #s are key to me–and DJT.Later all.

    Liked by 4 people

  3. fionamargaret says:

    TVIX
    TLT up to 181….10yr yield going to 1.36 or so
    GLD up to 163…UGLD up to 200
    UUP ($US) up to 36….we are almost at breakout….
    EUO (short euro)…think maybe crash and burn… up through 28.084 to multi year breakout
    GBTC up to 26.5
    S&P going down to 2735 (the lows formed in early March and late May)…and then 2137.76…1800

    Do your own due diligence, and hope you do well.

    BA down to 28
    CAT down to 93
    GE down to 4
    Any others on request…..

    Liked by 1 person

    • fionamargaret says:

      BA down to 289 (not 28…yet)
      MMM down to 141

      Like

    • Fiona…. is that a typo?
      Boeing is going to collapse $307 dollars???
      😀

      Like

    • Frank Gaggia, Jr. says:

      Hi, Fiona! I haven’t asked for projections for a while now, so how ’bout AMD, SBUX and TWTR? You were dead on last time, if I remember correctly! Thanks, and I hope you are doing well, both in life and in your trading!

      Liked by 1 person

      • fionamargaret says:

        AMD down to 22
        SBUX down to 89
        TWTR down to 60

        Like

        • fionamargaret says:

          TWTR up to 60 ….sorry Frank…

          Like

          • Frank Gaggia, Jr. says:

            Thanks, Fiona! I’ll keep an eye on those numbers. BTW, last Friday I bought AMD 31.50 calls, which expire today, for $0.22 expecting a bounce to 32 which would make them worth at least $0.50. Well, when I got up yesterday they were worth $1.08 so I sold them. I’m so smart! Today they’re worth $3.50!!!

            Liked by 1 person

    • argento77 says:

      Hi Fiona,what is the catalyst for calling 2137??Surely the PPT will interact and sorry but Trumpie will not let that happen!Sure looks like we might get another leg down towards the May low but calling those lows now a bit far fetched respectfully!

      Like

      • mcgcapital says:

        Lol can’t believe there are people out there who believe the president or the fed or whoever set the price at which markets trade at. Incredible level of naivety if involved in markets

        Liked by 2 people

        • argento77 says:

          They don’t set the price but sure have a hand in control when it gets out of hand…sure stepped in the 2007 crisis and your blind if you believe otherwise!

          Like

          • mcgcapital says:

            Well you basically said it can’t go down because they won’t allow it, then followed up by saying ‘well look they stepped in in 2007’. It fell 58% in 2007 so don’t think that’s ‘controlling it when out of hand’

            Liked by 1 person

    • syedsma says:

      Hi Fiona,
      Appreciate your inputs on this forum ….

      May I request your opinions about SLB, BIDU, NVDA, and VOD

      Liked by 1 person

      • fionamargaret says:

        They are all in a bearish pattern Sye, but I am just doing a simple permutation on each…
        (I can provide a chart for any or all if you like)…..

        NVDA down to 121
        BIDU down to 41
        SLB down to 20
        VOD down to 6….yes, I really don’t believe this one as it had a reversal (so you have a previous breakdown countered by a reversal)…it looks like it could go higher to me..

        You have a different way of determining results…the numbers are predictive based on what has happened with EOD price for the last few years and determining (based on that) where the price is going “all things being equal”…..

        Liked by 2 people

        • ES_Trader says:

          Hi fionamargaret,

          Thank you for sharing here. I don’t visit regularly. Are you able to share more about your analysis? If discussed already just point me to the date and I’ll find it. Thanks!

          Liked by 1 person

  4. Crude Oil demand weakest globally since 2008.
    Gasoline demand in the U.S. tanking.

    German exports slump most in 3 years.
    Exports fell annual 8% in June.

    Canadian unemployment rate at 5.7%
    Lost 24,000 jobs last month.

    Copper at 2 year lows.

    U.S. GDP for Q2 at 2.1%

    Core U.S. PPI posts first decline in 2 years.

    ISM non-manufacturing index falls to lowest level in 3 years.

    S&P trading at 17.7X 2019 earnings consensus estimates.

    Yup.
    These are the perfect ingredients for wave 3 of 3.
    🙂

    Like

  5. Nothing’s changed in my short-term elliott wave perspective as posted yesterday (see here: https://imgur.com/Y6n25SY)

    price just extended a bit further, that’s all: https://imgur.com/YMXHeNl

    Note this can become more complex if price continues continues to follow the average seasonal pre-election pattern (more about that later)

    Liked by 3 people

  6. mcgcapital says:

    Got back in now.. so you can fill your boots Swamper lol

    Like

    • CampFreddie says:

      Who is “Swamper” ?

      Like

    • Luc Joseph R. LeBlanc says:

      Hi Mark!
      Those rallies are making you too quiet!
      You mean you went short?

      Like

      • mcgcapital says:

        Yeah..still seeing significant downside from these levels so view the last couple of days as a counter rally. That means it’s just a question of where it reverses from. Had a couple of goes yesterday early in the day which got stopped.. then another on the close last night and a further one on today’s open. Not that interested in buying right now unless it comes down a lot for a counter rally

        Liked by 1 person

  7. ES – 20 points on the NEWS that the U.S. is holding off on a decision about Huawei’s licenses.

    Like

  8. argento77 says:

    Pretty sure this move gave a WROC signal but guess will find out in the weekend analysis!Last time I recall when futures make such a recovery as it did on Tuesday it normally generates a multi month powerful rally…IHS on the monthly charts playing..? Time will tell!Now busy with a RS of a IHS to push higher!

    A

    Liked by 3 people

  9. Having a pretty good day today in oils and medical diagnostics!

    🙂

    Liked by 1 person

    • phil1247 says:

      2.5 ?
      are we supposed to be impressed ?
      i dont think so

      Liked by 2 people

      • riderbobo says:

        The last time he claimed to own an oil stock was about two years ago and it was Royal Dutch Shell.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Just one of several equity accounts Phil.
        And I also have a futures account to trade the ES and CL too.

        My day just got another $20,000 better in the last hour.
        How’s your day going?

        Like

      • Frank Gaggia, Jr. says:

        Phil, there are some of us who are less fortunate that are very impressed by anyone who has accumulated that amount. I guess I’m even more impressed that you are NOT impressed! I’m going to quit talking about my % gains, which, impressive to me at times, don’t amount to a hill of beans $-wise compared to you guys! Congratulations to all of you millionaires. May God continue to bless you.

        Liked by 2 people

        • phil1247 says:

          frank
          i have never mentioned anything about dollar amounts and never will
          there will always be people who have more than you and less than you
          you just have to be thankful for what you have
          especially for health ,,, because without health you have nothing
          God Bless !

          Liked by 11 people

          • riderbobo says:

            It is best to ignore him. He is very insecure.

            Liked by 2 people

          • Frank Gaggia, Jr. says:

            Tell me about it! Four years ago,at age 70, I could ride my bike in Mammoth Lakes, CA (elev. 7000′), now I get out of breath washing the car! And I’ve never smoked. I’ve had several trips to the ER in an ambulance and several more where I drove myself and got chewed out for not taking the “limo”! But I’m still above ground, so life is good!

            Liked by 4 people

        • Thank You Frank.
          You are most kind and gracious!

          I simply posted what kind of day I was having because late last week Phil accused me of a bogus “make believe trade” in shares of EXAS.

          It’s interesting that he is once again the first person to reply to my post…. and make yet another NEGATIVE comment. I have no idea why he repeatedly does this when it comes to me, or my approach to trading/investing. We all have different styles and ways of making money. But for some reason, he cant seem to respect that.

          I would hope that we can all support each other and help each other make money, no matter how big or small our account size is. That should ultimately be the goal, right?

          Hope everyone is having a great day!
          🙂

          Liked by 2 people

    • maxcherry12 says:

      Don’t you post over at Daneric’s Elliot Wave? Lunker says What Ever Happened to P3, LMFAO, Bluehorseshop , The Always Excellent Hochberg and M Wags are all one in the same, right before he banned you.
      I see a lot of your trades are posted at Danerics, very enlightening, since you never know who is posting its good to see their track record, after all you could be a near 60 year old living in your mother’s house.

      Liked by 2 people

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