Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

July 13, 2019

This week started off with gaps down both Monday and Tuesday, which hit the low of the week at SPX 2963 within the first hour of trading Tuesday morning.  SPX closed last week at 2991.  From there, the market rallied for the rest of the week, seeming fueled by Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony of a “very likely” rate cut next month.  Wednesday began with a gap up and rally to 3003 within the first hour, then pulled back and traded in a range the rest of the day to close at 2993.  Thursday had another small gap up to 3002, then traded in a range and closed at an all-time high of 3000.  Friday had another small gap up and then proceeded to rally all day to close on the high of the week at 3014.

For the week, SPX/DOW gained 0.78%/1.52% while NDX/NAZ gained 1.30%/1.01%.

On the economic front, Consumer Credit increased.  The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, JOLTS and MBA Mortgage Application Index all declined, while Wholesale Inventories increased.

Next week economic news comes from Empire State Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Import Prices and Export Prices.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since.  Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

Not much has changed this week as the uptrend continues to extend reaching all-time highs now at 3014.  The small pullback early in the week was insufficient to trigger any medium term subdivision, so we continue to count this rally as Minute wave i of Minor wave 3, which has been in progress since the Minor wave 2 low at 2729 on June 3rd.  This wave has now achieved 285 points in 28 trading days and has become the longest such rally of our Primary wave III bull market since the exponential rise from Dec 2017 to the Intermediate wave iii top in January 2018. We’re still cautious that a more significant pullback could occur at any time, but the market keeps pushing through our short term targets and pivots.  The first logical target for Minor wave 3 completion remains at 3300.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

Using our short term tracking, we can now count seven waves up from the Minor wave 2 low [2729]> 2911> 2875> 2964> 2913> 2996> 2963> 3014, which sets a short term inflection point.  The 33 point pullback to Tuesday’s low at 2963 completed the impulsive pattern of five Micro waves as previously reported.  However, the subsequent rally beyond our 3002 target to new highs created an ambiguity.  We can’t yet rule out the possibility of an irregular Minute wave i top.  After much discussion within the OEW group, we decided to track the irregular scenario till the market dictates otherwise.  This suggests Micro wave 5 completed at 2996 and Minute wave ii is subdividing into three waves, Micro wave a = 2963, Micro wave b = 3014 so far, with Micro wave c to follow.  Above 3016, Micro wave b would be greater than 1.618x Micro wave a, which exceeds our limit for this count and suggests something else may be in play.  We have a couple of alternative counts under consideration and will report on those when the time comes.  Friday’s close got within 2 points of our limit, while sitting at another short term divergence at the high.

Short term support is at the 2995 and 2984 pivots.  Resistance is at the 3033 pivot.  Short and medium term RSI both have negative divergences.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 0.72%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 0.60%.

The DJ World index gained 0.16%, and the NYSE gained 0.18%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and lost 0.34%

Crude oil is in an uptrend and gained 4.69%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.86%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 2.45%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.48%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

 

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143 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. Another look at $Gold. considered “the store” of value, pretty much since people stopped counting on their fingers..

    The problem with owning gold is that it pays no income.
    Which can be very unnerving for investors and traders, as it sloshes carelessly back and forth.
    In a way it’s a “binary” investment, similar to a biotech (contingent on an FDA “Yes” or “No”)
    It’s a commodity, either you want it or you don’t.

    GLTA

    Liked by 3 people

  2. nyjsec314 says:

    I’m just going to post my thoughts and i understand that this is a free blog and I’ll always appreciate Tony’s work. But if we aren’t even getting weekly updates, or if they’re on hold because the team doesn’t know how to adjust the current count to conditions or etc, I don’t know how much longer this is going to be relevant? Maybe time to get another admin?

    Liked by 1 person

    • Arlan0410 says:

      You’re right this is a free site. It is relevant to those that want to see Tony’s work continue and are appreciative of OEW students, who are voluntarily contributing their own time, and Christine continuing her father’s work.

      Like

  3. sixpack says:

    All the counts since the june low are traditional ew. Oew does not apply at that low level degree because there’s nothing objective about it. So really all you can do is use the ew rules the best ya can and count away. That’s all the oew team is doing at that degree. But they are still an excellent guideline.

    Like

  4. torehund says:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/the-worst-heatwave-was-the-1930s/

    It is amazing how the agenda of lesser consumption puts a lid on growth-prospects thus preventing the economy from rebounding. Therefore we are all encouraged to consume less in order to prevent rates from going through the roof, the agenda of govs and low rate floaters.

    Like

  5. Jack Lad says:

    Little is known about Super-cycle end points because they appear to appear very rarely..
    https://wavecount.blogspot.com/2019/07/blog-post_20.html

    Like

  6. quickrick38 says:

    Here’s my count and I’m sticking to my guns:

    I don’t know who does the currently posted OEW count but, respectfully, I disagree.

    Personally, I think Tony would have already made an adjustment and moved on…he was like that you know. It’s very hard to find someone of his caliber. And yes, when I think about his character, I do…I get a lump in my throat. God bless your soul Mr. Caldaro.
    QR
    Good Luck All

    Liked by 2 people

    • chrisk44342 says:

      If this was traditional EW is would agree Rick. But I dont agree that Tony would have changed his count. Not an OEW specialist but it seems to follow function over form. E.g. just because it looks like a wedge or ED doesn’t mean it fits OEW

      Like

      • arlan0410 says:

        Exactly. specific criteria are the most important, ie the math, not the shape. OEW is objective. Shape is subjective.

        Like

    • riderbobo says:

      Your 2 looks forced to me. The pullback was negligible.

      Like

      • quickrick38 says:

        Quote from SoulSurfer, “2’s have small, 4’s have been deep”. Indeed, it’s been that way for quite a while.

        Like

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