Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Provided by the OEW Group

July 06, 2019

This holiday shortened week opened with a large gap up to SPX 2971 on Monday, hit 2978 within the first hour then began to sell off.  After lunch the SPX had dropped to 2952 but that was to become the low for the week.  On Tuesday 2970 became resistance early on producing a pullback to 2956 but from there the SPX moved on up and hit 2996 at the early close on Wednesday.  With Thursday being a holiday, Happy 4th to all, Friday saw a gap down to open at 2984 and continued to sell off into 2968.  A rally then started into 2994 before a 2990 close.

For the week, SPX/DOW gained 1.65%/1.21% while NDX/NAZ gained 2.22%/1.94%.

The economic news had positive reports for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Non Farm Payrolls, while ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI were all negative.

Next week economic news comes from Core CPI, Core PPI, FED Minutes and the FED Monetary Policy Report.

LONG TERM: Uptrend


In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.



This week started off with a large gap up at the open on Monday and proceeded to rally to a new all-time high of 2996 by the holiday shortened close on Wednesday.  Nice way to celebrate the 4th of July and honor our beloved maestro’s birthday, we miss you Tony!   There was no change to that status post-holiday, as Friday gapped down at the open, but recovered to fill most of the gap and finish just 6 points off the high by the end of the week.  The NAZ and NDX joined the party and confirmed new uptrends, which now puts all our market in alignment.  This extends the Minor wave 3 rally to 267 points from the Minor wave 2 low at 2729.  It’s been a persistent rally, 22 days without a medium term subdivision, which is right up there equal to the longest such duration since the Major wave 2 low last December.  This suggests some caution is advised, since a significant pullback could come at any time.  First logical target for Minor wave 3 completion remains at the 3300 level.



Using our short term tracking, we can now count five waves up from the Minor wave 2 low [2729]>2911>2875>2964>2913>2996, which sets up a nice impulsive structure for the beginning of Minor 3.  We continue to track this as a potential Minute wave i of Minor wave 3, that’s subdividing into five Micro waves.  Micro wave 5 has been underway since last week’s low at 2913 and is either at or near completion at the high this week of 2996.  The upper limit for this count remains at 3002, since Micro wave 3 can’t be the smallest wave for this structure.  The market ran into resistance at our next pivot and setup a slight negative RSI divergence at Wednesday’s high.  Risk is now elevated for a sizable decline in the near term.  However, extension beyond 3002 suggests our alternate count may be in play, which is a more bullish Nano wave subdivision.  Once Minute wave i completes, we would expect the largest pullback since the trend began.

Short term support is at the 2984 and 2957 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2995 and 3032 pivots.  Short term and medium term RSI both have negative divergences.


Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 0.13%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.55%.

The DJ World index gained 1.21%, and the NYSE gained 1.24%.


Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.23%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 1.46%

Gold is in an uptrend and lost 1.46%

GBTC is in an uptrend and lost 3.04%.

The USD is in a downtrend and gained 1.28%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp


Have a good week!

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169 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. raymond e kalenda says:

    From Bud….It is my view, that 2020, shall be a remarkable SPX top., SPX event….
    My take, for looking for this, is roughly the late Spring of 2020. No, it
    is not very accurate, but my best estimate….Bud

    Liked by 2 people

  2. fxaprendiz says:

    Cj32 I can’t reply directly to your last post so I’m doing it here.
    Thanks but I’m good with my own analysis.
    I’m just visiting here. I felt the need to speak up because it seemed funny to me that now everyone is talking about broadening patterns when I spoke of it back in March then posted a chart in May but nobody noticed. It easy to say it once the pattern is done.
    Same happened with Phil, he talked about 3050 back in Dec/Jan when most were still looking down.

    Ok I’m done with my visit in here. Back to my own place to focus on what’s important: getting the count right.

    You guys all have a good one.

    Liked by 1 person

    • cj32 says:

      Good. He had first mentioned to me in late December that he was tracking it . Again in Feb. April June, and said he will post near completion, as it was a reversal pattern.
      He has been bullish since 1982 lows and believes its a secular BULL Market since 1932 lows, still in GSC III and SC V and Cycle I ending soon below 3046.28 or extends higher to 3050-3200+?TBD.
      AM glad you were also tracking it as many others I am sure, out there as it is a very important pattern. Good Chatting.

      Liked by 1 person

      • cj32 says:

        Meant Cycle I ending soon of SC V of GSC III, has a lot more ways to go yet. Will need a deep Cycle II correction near here to correct 3030?- 667=2363 points of Cycle I.


  3. cj32 says:

    cr. to CBZ


    • fxaprendiz says:

      That broadening topping is so old news.
      Some of us saw it coming months ago and talked about it when nobody was paying attention.


      • cj32 says:

        CBZ said one must wait till very close to completion for the higher probability of working out along with the grinding price -action and low volume. See expanded Tweet.


        • fxaprendiz says:

          Lol what good is it EW then if you only use it at the end of a pattern?
          I went long shortly after the bounce off 2729 based on the probabilities of an Expanded flat which is part of the broadening top and didn’t have to wait for confirmation.

          You don’t wait until a 5-wave formation is done to go long. You get on board on w1 or w3.

          Sorry but I’m unimpressed by your boss’ EW skills if all he does is tell you when a pattern is ending.

          Liked by 1 person

          • cj32 says:

            If you care to read all his Tweets @coolbizone from June 06 to July 09/10th to get the clear picture in a total context.
            He has been bullish all along and now for a ST peak and reversal if the Topping pattern plays out. Or you are fine with your analysis so stay with it, GL


          • cj32 says:

            BTW he has not posted anywhere except his own Twitter for free for 2+ years.
            He is a big trader, very successful does not need to impress anyone.
            I have been just sharing as it has been very profitable for me.

            Liked by 1 person

    • There is no topping bradening formation….only looking at this chart gives me a headache LOL. Next weeks will invalidate your pattern by going above your upper line. Stick with OEW charts or see my charts here https://investorshub.advfn.com/SPX-Elliott-Waves-SP500-36937/


  4. sixpack says:

    Where are all the bears and the great wizard of oz top-pickers now? Hats off to Tony Caldero and the OEW team! Easily the finest set of elliott wave analysts I’ve ever had the privilege to work with.

    It’s time for a Sixpack

    Liked by 2 people

    • fxaprendiz says:

      Sixpack, some of us are quietly doing our own thing now, away from all the noise, the taunting and the infighting.
      Btw I have been doing good taking both long and short positions during most of the squiggles up and down.
      Won’t tell you what to do. I Hope you’re doing good and most of all hope you don’t get caught off guard by the end of the month…

      Liked by 1 person

    • elmer510 says:

      Yes, you’re right Sixpack. They are doing a great job, this team.


  5. fionamargaret says:

    UUP up to 36……26.28, 26.456, then 26.723 and breakout + fireworks
    TLT up to 183
    GLD up to 163
    Do your own due diligence. Use protection.


  6. Just wouldn’t feel right if they didn’t pump it into the close

    Liked by 2 people

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