Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Provided by the OEW Group

June 8, 2019

The week started at SPX 2751, had a small bounce to 2763 but then hit 2729 by early afternoon, which was to be the low for the week, then closed at 2744.  Tuesday saw a large gap up opening at 2763 and went straight into rally mode throughout Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as the SPX hit 2885, with nothing more than a 19pt pullback at most along the way.  Friday afternoon saw a small drift off the highs to close the week at 2873.

For the week, the SPX/Dow gained 4.41% while the NDX/NAZ gained 4.06%

Economic news this week had positive results for Factory Orders, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, while ISM Manufacturing and Non-Farm Payrolls declined.

Next week, economic news comes from PPI, Core CPI, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

 

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend likely

spxdaily

We’ve been tracking the current Minor 2 downtrend as three Minute waves and have been looking for the Minute c completion of that pattern.  This week gave us the answer.  After the decline on Monday to 2729, which was right in range of our support target at the 2731 pivot, SPX abruptly reversed and achieved a significant rally of 156 pts to a high 0f 2885 by early Friday.  The strength of this rally was sufficient to trigger our WROC signal, which places high probability that a new uptrend is underway.  Consequently, we upgraded the medium term status and added the tentative marking for a potential Minor 2 bottom.  Although, some near term caution is advised since the rally has already reached logical resistance at the 2884 pivot and the Minute b rally high 2892.  Medium term RSI is overbought as well.  We are now watching the short term waves to see if this rally can impulse in a sustainable fashion.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly.png

As mentioned, Minor 2 most likely completed at 2729.  We have Minute a at 2801 and Minute b at 2892.  Minute a and Minute c completed with similar size and structure, which resulted in a fairly symmetrical three pattern.  As you can see from the 60min chart, the pivots have done well, with Minor 1, Minute a, Minute b and Minor 2 all having turning points within those ranges.  From 2729, the SPX rallied to 2885 without any meaningful pullback.  After such a sizeable move, it would not be unexpected to get a significant pullback in the near term.  So far, our short term tracking can count only one wave up to 2885, so we’ll need more price action to assess this rally further.

Short term support is at the 2858 and 2835 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2884 and 2929 pivots.  Short term RSI got extremely overbought at the high, then pulled back within the neutral zone by the close.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 1.34%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 4.49%.

The DJ World index gained 3.39%, and the NYSE gained 4.09%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.35%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 0.92%

Gold is in a uptrend and gained 0.25%

GBTC is in an uptrend and lost 4.79%.

The USD is in an uptrend and lost 1.2%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

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26 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. maxcherry12 says:

    ABC down could be just an A wave with B in progress similar the the example given in R.N Eilliot’s market letters, notice the 2 and 4 in the example are similar bringing into question the rule of alternation

    Like

  2. After 8-9 months of rate declines, Treasury yields seem to be exhibiting + Div on the daily chart.

    News says that Trump cut a deal with Mexico. OK.Nice.
    Have to wonder, if Chair Powell caves in and cuts rates
    what will happen then if Trump seals a deal with China, and the economy zooms ?

    I’ll tell you what.
    Powell and the FED are going to achieve a whole new level of stupid.

    Like

  3. J.Wenger says:

    Thanks Christine and OEW Group. I wondered if the WROC was tripped…and if we would see it mentioned on the blog again. ATH’s here we come?
    https://www.invest-safely.com/stock-market-outlook-2019-06-09.html

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    • James McKee says:

      WROC…Weekly Rate of Change? The report mentioned this in the medium term section. Though I thought medium term was associated more with the daily chart here.

      Aside–Thank you OEW group and Christine. Your report is always an enjoyable and informative weekend highlight for me.

      Like

  4. elmer510 says:

    Thanks for another great update. Just like good ol’ days – with coffee and the weekly report from Tony’s hands.

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  5. Wave 2 does not look like an ABC down. You might want to ask the OEW group to recount the waves. It is a 5 waves one, which implies that wave 2 is not complete, only leg A down is done. We are probably now doing a zig-zag as wave B and then leg C to test the 2728 should follow.
    The proof for 2954-2728 being a 5 wave one, is that there are 11 waves in 2954-2801 and 9 waves in 2892-2728. There are 9 waves when one wave was extended. So, imo 2954-2801 contains waves 1 and 3 down, and 2892-2728 is wave 5 down, which makes all the drop to 2728 a 5 waves, and not an ABC.

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  6. Thanks, Christine and OEW Group…really missed your blog and comments, glad you’ve re-opened comments and your view has been very accurate, pivots excellent!

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  7. 123 abc says:

    Christine, very appreciative of the weekend update and reopening of the comments section.
    At some point, will members from the OEW group respond to public questions and comments in regards to market analysis?

    SPX

    BTC: https://redd.it/bnrctv

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    • Christine Caldaro says:

      Potentially. If any question is directed at the group ask it with OEW Group etc.. It’ll stand out over the regular questions of daily discussions.

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  8. CharlieB says:

    This year YTD, has shown the value of a diversified portfolio. Save some money for trading if you like, but be in Treasuries of different time periods and the stock market on a allocation basis that makes sense for you at your age.

    Liked by 2 people

  9. Frank Gaggia, Jr. says:

    Thanks OEW group and Christine. Glad to have you back. We missed you!

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Christine Caldaro says:

    I’m back from a business trip. I have more time to be around for the moment. I’ll leave the comments open as long as rules are followed. Hope everyone had a good week last week.

    Liked by 6 people

Comments are closed.