Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Provided by the OEW Group

May 18, 2019

The week started with a large gap down of 41 points to open at SPX 2840 and sold off into lunchtime where the low for the week was made at 2801, before a bounce and then close at 2812. Tuesday gapped up and rose into lunch hitting 2853, then gave back some of those gains into the close finishing at 2834.  Wednesday gave a gap down opening of 14pts and hit 2815 within the first hour, from that point the market then rallied and managed to reach 2892 by Thursday lunchtime with no more than an 8pt pullback along the way, but the afternoon session saw some of those gains given back, hitting 2871 and closing at 2876.  Friday saw a gap down and hit 2854 within the first hour, then rallied to 2885 but gave back nearly all of those gains closing the week at 2860

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 0.76% while the NDX/NAS lost 1.27%

Economic news this week had positive reports from Building Permits and Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index and negative reports from Core Retails Sales and Export Price Index.

Next week, economic news comes from Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, New Homes Sales and Core Durable Goods Orders.  In addition, on Monday at 7pm (ET) FED Chair Powell speaks.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend

spxdaily

This week the inflection point was resolved as the SPX, NAZ and NDX did indeed follow the DOW as expected with downtrend confirmations.  For all three of these indices, it’s the first downtrend since the Major 2 low in December.  After this week’s action, the count has become clearer with Minor 1 at the recent high after what looks like an ending diagonal Minute v that has been ongoing since early Feb.  Minor 1 started in late December at 2347 and took just over 4 months to complete, totalling 607pts.  Minor 2 has been underway for the past couple of weeks and made a low at 2801 on Monday.  This could be all of Minor 2 or just Minute a.  The DOW count remains unchanged with an irregular Minor 2 correction as posted last week for our alternate count.  Minor 1 top at the Feb high, Minute a at the March low, an irregular Minute b at the April high and Minute c in progress.  With all 4 indices now aligned, once Minor 2 completes, Minor 3 should carry the markets to new highs once again.

indudaily

 

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned, we’re now counting Minute v of Minor 1 as an ending diagonal.  Since Minor 1 topped, Minor 2 has declined 5.2% which is sufficient to satisfy Minor wave degree correction.  Looks like last Friday’s rally turned out to be just another b wave of the ongoing correction from Minor 1 top.  From Monday’s low at 2801, we can count 3 small waves up, 2853>2815>2892, followed by choppy price action on Friday.  This has been the largest rally since Minor 2 began, but it fell short of clearing the 61.8% retracement level at 2896.  More price action is needed before feeling confident Minor 3 is underway.  If 2853 is overlapped before further upside, then the rally remains corrective and suggests Minor 2 may still be unfolding.

Short term support is at the 2858 and 2835 pivots.  Resistance is at 2884 and 2929 pivots.  The SPX 60-minute chart is approaching oversold territory with the daily chart neutral after hitting its most oversold reading this year on Monday.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 3.48%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.11%.

The DJ World index lost 0.85%, and the NYSE lost 1.02%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.47%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 1.96%

Gold is in a downtrend and lost 0. 91%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 13.02%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.72%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Have a good week!

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443 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. phil1247 says:

    RE dollar collapse

    just waiting for the wedge to break down and C wave collapse to ensue

    patience grasshopper

    Liked by 5 people

  2. EXAS closes at $96.88 and up $5.00 from yesterday’s low which happened to be the .618 retracement of the +$12 rally from May 13 at 87.02 up to the 98.45 high just 3 days later.

    This stock makes moves very quickly.
    It’s not for the faint of heart, those that hesitate, or need “confirmation” from an EW count, or for those that are undercapitalized. – – -To that latter point, the options are not at all liquid.

    Have a terrific Memorial Day Weekend everyone!

    And makes sure you raise Old Glory and make a toast to our Vets who died while serving this great country!

    🙂

    Like

  3. xEVAx says:

    Im sticking with the DOOM count and holding my short, will double down up to 2849, stop 2853 but Im expecting a possibly historic gap down or maybe Tuesday afternoon…. GL and have a nice weekend, Cheers =)

    Like

    • E says:

      What degree is your red V? Super cycle or grand super cycle? I smell something very big and terrible about to happen. Rarely do I hear people commenting on magnitude, but look at the size of those waves. Also, thanks for sharing your charts.

      Like

  4. Philippe V says:

    It looks like Daenerys Caldaro has deleted some of my posts that weren’t adhering to the new rules of the Westeros Blog. I thought frankly they were pretty mild, just telling Asa and Phil to tone it down with their “ nothing surprise us, we are such great traders” constant rhetoric ! Better be careful as surely next time the sentence is disembowling or crucifixion 😜

    Liked by 6 people

    • fionamargaret says:

      Philippe don’t feel bad…..
      I had my communication with GTO discussing TSLA deleted.
      Technical Traders deleted (gold and silver technicals and world currencies)
      Depression and war sentence deleted….maybe that is considered not relative to the markets…..
      All within the last 2 days.

      Liked by 2 people

      • fionamargaret says:

        CNBC are discussing AAPL….171 is my price.

        Like

      • gtoptions says:

        That’s strange.

        Like

      • xEVAx says:

        Massive negative divergences at each bubble high with a tag and rejection of the LONG T/L and a SUPER BEARISH EW count on the quarterly chart and things are unraveling fast forth turning style….. GL Uncle Scam…..

        Liked by 4 people

      • Philippe V says:

        Thanks Fiona ! I don’t feel bad. Just joking about it. Like in all dictatorships the leader always justifies the limits imposed on freedom by saying its actually good for the community …. but according only to its own set of rules, moral compass and agenda.

        Liked by 3 people

    • purplember says:

      Mine was deleted as well. it seems DH method has more pull than anyone else. concerned about blog long term

      Liked by 3 people

      • fionamargaret says:

        …and so was Tom Fischer’s reply to my “depression and war” comment…
        Wagner and Horowitz were also deleted Purple…but yes they were not market related, but good for one’s soul…..

        There is a gentleman on the site whose mind is never too far away from Vietnam.
        I wish him peace.

        Like

      • M Wags says:

        Purple, you are not alone.
        I share your concerns as well.

        Like

  5. gary61b says:

    ES from the low yesterday 2805 I see 5 small wave up. and a pullback supported on a HWB from L/H. if price continues up through 2834 possible to see 2850 gap filled on the spx

    Like

  6. Atlanta GDP Now currently at 1.3%
    JP Morgan slashes their Q2 estimate down to 1.0%

    Like

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