Weekend Report

Weekend Update

 Provided by the OEW Group

May 11, 2019

Tariff Man and volatility came back this week!  After a Sunday night tweet threatening additional tariffs on China, the SPX gapped down to 2898 on Monday.  Buyers drove price back up to 2937 by the close, but Tuesday saw another gap down and trend day falling to 2863 before a late day ramp into the close.  A small rally continued on Wednesday pushing the SPX near 2900.  Traders sold into the close and another gap down open occurred on Thursday with the SPX falling to 2836.  An oversold rally to 2876 led to another gap down on Friday to the week’s low of 2825.  The markets rallied again with news that the US is giving China 3-4 weeks to come to an agreement or face new tariffs.  The SPX rallied to 2891 and closed at 2882.

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 2.2% while the NDX/NAS lost 3.2%.

Economic news was light this week with positive reports from JOLTS – Job Openings and negative reports from PPI, core CPI and CPI.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend inflection point

spxdaily

This week DOW led the weakness with a confirmed downtrend, but was the only one of our four main US indices to do so.  We would normally expect at least SPX to follow, but until that happens, markets remain at an inflection point.  As a result, we updated the charts to show our primary and alternate counts on SPX and DOW respectively.  Our primary count remains a subdividing Minor 3 wave in progress, with Minute i at the recent high.  We can count 5 waves up from the March low to a slightly failed double top.  Notice the failure is on an intraday basis, but the close is equal.  Minute ii is ongoing and may have found bottom with a nice reversal on Friday.

indudaily

Our alternate count is a subdivided Minor 2 wave, with Minute a at the March low, an irregular Minute b at the April high and Minute c in progress.  If DOW can sustain the reversal and hold above March lows, then this alternate count may be eliminated.  There is another variation of this alternate that’s on our watch list.  We will report on it in the future if/when price dictates.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned, we’re counting Minute i from the 2722 March low as 5 waves up to the slightly failed intraday top.  This suggests the Minute i impulse subdivided into 5 Micro waves 2852>2788>2954>2901>2948.  From there, Minute ii is underway and can be counted as 7 waves down which gives a double 3 pattern into a divergent low, 2898>2937>2863>2898>2836>2876>2825.  This signals possibility of a significant rally to follow.  Pending resolution of the inflection point, this could be just another b wave or the beginning of Minute iii.

Short term support is at the 2858 and 2835 pivots, 2825 and 2800.  Resistance is at 2900 and the 2884 and 2929 pivots.  The SPX 60-minute chart shows a positive divergence at today’s low and resulted in a 50-point rally.  The daily chart still shows price as oversold.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 5.8%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 2.4%.

The DJ World index lost 2.7%, and the NYSE lost 1.9%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.5%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 0.4%

Gold is in a downtrend but gained 0.3%%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 17%.

The USD is in an uptrend but lost 0.1%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Have a good week!

 

 

This entry was posted in Updates. Bookmark the permalink.

797 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. only question I have is that a of B. With b of B then cof B higher then 2859. Or was that it and another 147 points down from here. 2712 target.
    We shall see, expect at least a 20 point drop tomorrow

    Like

  2. phil1247 says:

    VIX buy signal

    confirmed
    ie bullish for stocks………..

    here is the rundown on what to expect going forward
    courtesy of Evil Speculator
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    And here it is in all its glory. We do have 1) a push outside the Bollinger, then 2) one lower and inside, followed by 3) an even lower close. Per the rules this usually produces a bounce within a week, so it’s of course possible we’ll see another drop first.

    Of course some people dont understand the bounce within a week part
    and are criticizing without understanding how it works

    just as their dire warnings in january
    about the most “overbought mcclellan oscillator in history ….”
    without understanding that extreme overbought is GOOD
    and portends good advances in the market even as the oscillator goes down
    as you can
    see for yourself

    Liked by 1 person

  3. The CEO of EXAS presenting at the BofA – Merrill Lynch Healthcare Conference at 4PM Eastern

    https://www.veracast.com/webcasts/baml/healthcare2019/id13208560696.cfm

    Back over $95.00

    Like

    • Only 4% of the roughly 100 million patient addressable market penetrated.

      Interesting to note, 48% of Cologuard users have never been screened for colon cancer before, and on average are 65 years old, meaning they’ve been in the screening population for 15 years and never been screened.

      Company continues to advance a pipeline of DNA methylation markers for liquid biopsy with their partner, the Mayo Clinic.

      Q1 results: $162 million on 334,000 tests at 73% gross margins.

      Liquid Biopsy data to be released on several cancers at DDW Conference this Weekend including liver and pancreatic.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. looks like bulls are serious.

    Like

  5. GH… the leader in liquid biopsy continues to run.
    Another terrific diagnostics company!

    IPO last August at $19. Went sideways across the page between $35 – $40 until news came out. Traded as high as $106 in March. Is currently the leader in LB for cancer monitor/reoccurrence.

    +5% to $76.25

    Like

  6. Will we get buy triggers today based on NYMO, VIX, SPX setups?!

    https://imgur.com/r5yNwvg

    Like

  7. xEVAx says:

    Short at 2852ish, target 2777…..

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Menachem M. Uzan says:

    IMVHO its possible we may have just completed an ABC pattern off the lows and we head south the rest of the day. Break of the high for the day would invalidate.

    Like

  9. phil1247 says:

    Asa

    RE: EXAS

    i see you are asking about this stock
    did you see the post and chart where i said it might be a buy at 85 ?
    it got to 87 ….not too far off
    then i said 104 target.. it actually got to 105

    now it looks like an accident waiting to happen unless something changes

    Liked by 2 people

    • aahmichael says:

      Are you kidding? It’s one thing for you to constantly post fake trades, but now you’re lying about your very own posts that are here for all to see.

      Let’s review what you actually said about EXAS:

      On May 1st, EXAS closed at 97.22, and you wrote the following:

      phil1247 says:
      May 1, 2019 at 4:24 pm
      asa
      EXAS is going to come crashing down if spx is ready to correct
      dont think it cant gap down 20 points overnite

      phil1247 says:
      May 1, 2019 at 4:31 pm
      maybe its a buy at 59 ?

      SPX was indeed ready to correct as it topped out the very day of your post on May 1st, but EXAS didn’t gap down 20 points, and it never went to 59. It opened on May 2nd at 96.57 and then went straight up for 2 days to close at 104.72, at which time you changed your bearish call to bullish and wrote this:

      phil1247 says:
      May 6, 2019 at 10:06 am
      now thru target
      107 next then 110

      So what happened next? EXAS never closed a penny higher went straight down to a low of 87.02 on Monday.

      Liked by 1 person

      • phil1247 says:

        as i have told you many times
        you will never understand how DH works
        just give up

        Like

      • M Wags says:

        Yup AA.

        Its pretty clear that he’s now been caught lying about his own posts. I seriously doubt that he’s ever traded shares of EXAS.

        He just makes forecasts, and then lies about what he said, or conveniently ignores (in this case) how bullish he was on EXAS to $107 – $110.

        As I mentioned previously, I stopped reading his posts after he wrote several erroneous posts on Crude Oil, citing a futures contract that was no longer trading – – – not to mention his admission that he doesnt even have futures account open.

        All this talk about “easy” money in CL and Bonds when the ES gets into a “choppy” mode…. but there’s no futures account open was a dead give-away to me.

        Like

        • lunker1 says:

          M wags is also
          blue horseshoe
          whatever happened to P3
          Timber!
          T

          he is a troll from Daneric’s blog and everyone has blocked him over there. you can see he posts a lot and nobody responds LOL

          Like

          • M Wags says:

            Why would any real Trader or Investor that has actual skin in the game think that a perma-bear blog that has been wrong for 10 straight years, is not moderated, and has become a cesspool filled with right wing political conspiracy theory posts is of any value, or has credible posters?

            Your post speaks volumes.

            Liked by 1 person

          • lunker1 says:

            it has less than zero value which makes it even more sad that you post things to yourself over there and that you have so many aliases…. troll

            Liked by 2 people

          • xEVAx says:

            I always thought “IT” was Daneric…..

            Like

      • lunker1 says:

        Focus on yourself Mikey.

        Michael’s own words… You don’t post every trade here.

        Phils words… 15 minutes is a lifetime. The tape changes constantly.

        ————-
        another doof with an alias

        Like

    • Anthony Saraniti says:

      I didn’t buy it waiting for high $70’s – $83. Did some research work on company, it is expensive at this price, metrics are overbought….thinking this company needs a pullback to get metrics back in line. Above all, this company has to put numbers on the board to prove profitable in 2020.

      Like

      • phil1247 says:

        it has never even made a nickle
        maybe it didnt gap down 20 points
        but it gapped down and closed down 10 points a few days ago

        can you stomach holding this stock asa ?
        if you can
        … as ira sez… God bless ya !

        Like

      • M Wags says:

        Just curious Anthony…

        What P/S multiple do you think it should be trading at?

        Like

        • Hi Blue

          Went through a number of metrics below is just the tip of the iceberg (comparing EXAS to other start up biotech firms). The summary of these stats gave me the impression that the stock was expensive in the high $90’s. The management is highly regarded. I think a number of analyst s are going to be watching future earning reports to see if EXAS will meet their target on profitability by 2020. If you recall, I was waiting for a technical pullback and EXAS didn’t hit my target. Perhaps if SPX tests the 2725 – 2775 (based on EW and Fibonnaci relationship) area it will pull back into my buy zone.

          RATIOS/PROFITABILITY(TTM)
          EPS-1.76 Revenue 526.2M Gross Margin 73.71%
          P/E -54.05 ROE -29.89% Debt To Equity 102.37%
          EBITDA -165.81 Net Margin -41.58%
          EVENTS
          Earnings Date 2019-07-30 Ex Div Date – Div Amount –
          Split Date – Split Factor –

          Like

          • M Wags says:

            Hi ASA,

            EXAS could go profitable this year if it wanted to, but thats not their priority right now. Their priority is CREATING A BRAND.

            Wall Street doesnt have a problem with their spending, or their having pushed the goal posts of profitability out to 2021.

            PS. They are not a Biotech. They are a Diagnostics company.

            Like

          • M Wags says:

            Hi ASA,

            EXAS could go profitable this year if it wanted to, but thats not their priority right now. Their priority is CREATING A BRAND.

            Wall Street doesnt have a problem with their spending, or their having pushed the goal posts of profitability out to 2021.

            PS. They are not a Biotech. They are a Diagnostics company.

            Like

          • M Wags says:

            EXAS has a 3 year CAGR of 170%

            Its a GROWTH stock in early stages of a commercial launch of a game-changing technology with no competition.

            So metrics like P/E, Debt to Equity, and EBITDA are meaningless.

            Wall Street clearly doesnt care about those metrics. It simlly cares about sales GROWTH and gross margins.

            Look, Im not here to convince anyone that Ive made the right investment here. Ive ALREADY made MILLIONS of dollars being invested in this Company from single digits. Im simply trying to present a great opportunity that is just getting started.

            Ive listened to every quarterly earnings call and investor presentation for over 10 years. Ive met the management team on numerous occasions. Ive toured their Lab in Madison. They have built a massive moat of IP around Cologuard. And now its DNA Methylation Platform is being leveraged towards other cancers in the liquid biopsy space.

            Their sales collaboration with PFIZER has just begun. Hockey stick growth is still out there.

            The stock currently trades at 16.0 P/S.

            Perhaps Im in the wrong place here….talking about a growth stock in the medical device sector while the Phil’s of the World try and capture every little squiggle in the S&P.

            In fact, its pretty clear that 95% of the people here have no interest in trading/investing in stocks.

            My apologies.

            Liked by 1 person

      • M Wags says:

        Just curious Anthony…

        What metrics are you looking at that makes you feel that the shares are expensive?

        Do you have a specific Price/Sales ratio that you are focusing on?

        Like

        • m9a3ar15 says:

          M…definitely in the 5% that is looking for solid growth stocks to hold…
          Will have check out exas……coolbiz has been recommending it also.
          Any other similar ideas?

          Like

          • M Wags says:

            Hi M9,

            Im not going to mention any specific stocks anymore besides the one’s that I already have, like GH. Its just not worth it.

            That having been said, I do like the Medical Diagnostics sector an awful lot.

            🙂

            Like

  10. nice 30 point rally of the low. Going to take a short here. wish i would of held my long longer. Oh well.

    Like

Comments are closed.