Weekend Report

Weekend Update

 Provided by the OEW Group

May 11, 2019

Tariff Man and volatility came back this week!  After a Sunday night tweet threatening additional tariffs on China, the SPX gapped down to 2898 on Monday.  Buyers drove price back up to 2937 by the close, but Tuesday saw another gap down and trend day falling to 2863 before a late day ramp into the close.  A small rally continued on Wednesday pushing the SPX near 2900.  Traders sold into the close and another gap down open occurred on Thursday with the SPX falling to 2836.  An oversold rally to 2876 led to another gap down on Friday to the week’s low of 2825.  The markets rallied again with news that the US is giving China 3-4 weeks to come to an agreement or face new tariffs.  The SPX rallied to 2891 and closed at 2882.

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 2.2% while the NDX/NAS lost 3.2%.

Economic news was light this week with positive reports from JOLTS – Job Openings and negative reports from PPI, core CPI and CPI.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend inflection point

spxdaily

This week DOW led the weakness with a confirmed downtrend, but was the only one of our four main US indices to do so.  We would normally expect at least SPX to follow, but until that happens, markets remain at an inflection point.  As a result, we updated the charts to show our primary and alternate counts on SPX and DOW respectively.  Our primary count remains a subdividing Minor 3 wave in progress, with Minute i at the recent high.  We can count 5 waves up from the March low to a slightly failed double top.  Notice the failure is on an intraday basis, but the close is equal.  Minute ii is ongoing and may have found bottom with a nice reversal on Friday.

indudaily

Our alternate count is a subdivided Minor 2 wave, with Minute a at the March low, an irregular Minute b at the April high and Minute c in progress.  If DOW can sustain the reversal and hold above March lows, then this alternate count may be eliminated.  There is another variation of this alternate that’s on our watch list.  We will report on it in the future if/when price dictates.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned, we’re counting Minute i from the 2722 March low as 5 waves up to the slightly failed intraday top.  This suggests the Minute i impulse subdivided into 5 Micro waves 2852>2788>2954>2901>2948.  From there, Minute ii is underway and can be counted as 7 waves down which gives a double 3 pattern into a divergent low, 2898>2937>2863>2898>2836>2876>2825.  This signals possibility of a significant rally to follow.  Pending resolution of the inflection point, this could be just another b wave or the beginning of Minute iii.

Short term support is at the 2858 and 2835 pivots, 2825 and 2800.  Resistance is at 2900 and the 2884 and 2929 pivots.  The SPX 60-minute chart shows a positive divergence at today’s low and resulted in a 50-point rally.  The daily chart still shows price as oversold.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 5.8%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 2.4%.

The DJ World index lost 2.7%, and the NYSE lost 1.9%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.5%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 0.4%

Gold is in a downtrend but gained 0.3%%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 17%.

The USD is in an uptrend but lost 0.1%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Have a good week!

 

 

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797 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. Anyone watching the NBA Conference Championships?

    If Portland continues to play defense like that, they are gonna get swept by my Dubs. Cant believe Terry Stotts wouldn’t bring Kantor up to the top and try and trap Steph. Made zero adjustments. Mind-Blowing!

    😀

    Liked by 1 person

  2. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

    Like

  3. xEVAx says:

    Weekly 50 is 25355, call it 25K…. SPX daily is a short below 2863-73 weekly 50 is 2774, 200 is 2417, NDX weekly 50 is 7160….. GL

    Like

  4. phil1247 says:

    Re : VIX buy signal given

    Asa

    its BULLISH for stocks
    its the cash daily $VIX
    there was a buy signal on may 10
    but there was no confirmation with a lower close at that time
    still need confirmation close below 18.06 today

    Like

  5. Good morning all. As a follow up to last nights post, /ES tested a combined ext. short and a daily measured move short at 2846.50. While the ext. short broke, meaningless, as the larger daily measured move was defended and more importantly started to decline.
    There are three bearish targets on the chart, a profit target of the 15 minute short setup at 2826.25, yesterday’s gap, at 2812.75 and last Friday’s low at 2799.75.

    Bottom line no change in analysis, /ES 2857.47 bullish above and bearish below, DH chart.

    Liked by 4 people

  6. CampFreddie says:

    Still seeing strong Buy signals on EUR/USD, so adding to long position here @ 11203 (intermediate not day trade). Aimho Glta.
    EUR/USD hourly :-

    Liked by 1 person

  7. CampFreddie says:

    Still loads of buy signals on Silver, so adding to long futz position here @ spot 1477 (intermediate not day trade). Aimho Glta.
    Spot Silver hourly :-

    Liked by 1 person

  8. cj32 says:

    Liked by 2 people

    • fotis2 says:

      Why you and Phil constantly advertising your site?Go there and stay there man

      Like

      • travis01 says:

        Chill out Fotis. Many here didn’t want to see daily short term discussions so he opened a blog that does almost only short term so this one doesn’t get bogged down. Everyone there still comes here for OEW discussions. Many here still want to see daily targets so he lets them know of updates. We often put a couple posts on short term here then go there if we want to discuss in detail. You have no issue with Coolbiz or Intelligent or others posting their links.

        Liked by 2 people

      • lunker1 says:

        I don’t advertise. I post a link to my update just like dozens of others here and my blog is always free.

        You harassed Phil and now you’re harassing me.

        Like

        • mcgcapital says:

          Pot kettle black lol

          Like

          • lunker1 says:

            Since you’ve never had a problem with words LOL feel free to explain

            Like

          • mcgcapital says:

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_pot_calling_the_kettle_black

            I was referring to you accusing Fotis of harassing you, when you regularly harass others yourself.

            Like

          • lunker1 says:

            sHow where I am harassing anyone. Give specifics or you’re just harassing as well.

            Liked by 1 person

          • mcgcapital says:

            This kind of proves the point because you don’t recognise when you do it. You’ve hassled Fxa, Aah and a few others by complaining about their posts… whenever you complain at someone for writing too much by making snide comments, talking about things you don’t have any interest in (e.g. news/politics), not labelling charts as you want them to be labelled, not updating you on their trades in real time etc.. is that not harassing people

            Like

          • lunker1 says:

            Again provide specific examples.

            If someone frequently trades in real time but mysteriously doesn’t post their exits near real time it is not harassing them to call that into question

            If someone posts a chart it is not harassing them to call the count or trendlines into question

            If someone posts tickers with targets but with no explanation it is not harassing them to call that into question

            When Christine says the blog is for market related posts only it is not harassing someone to call political posts into question

            No matter how many long winded treatises you post about fundamentals or macro it’s not going to change the tape.

            Sorry if I hurt your feelings ribbing you, but you were missing several hundred points along the way. Forest/trees.

            Like

          • mcgcapital says:

            I don’t want to get into some sort of huge beef with you out of respect for you keeping things going when this place was closed. But it’s about consistently applying what you do… Phil often posts trades but not every action and you don’t criticise him for that so you shouldn’t criticise other people for doing similar things.

            On the market related content, it’s just about being pragmatic. I think you have a preference for there to be no news flow discussion at all, whereas others like to read that. Some of the politics right now is completely relevant (e.g. Trump/tariffs) but you’d rather it be banned… Christine hasn’t said we can’t talk about stuff as long as it’s market relevant. So think you take the ‘no politics’ rule too literally… it’s point is to avoid bipartisan discussion which has no relevance.

            Lol didn’t realise you were ribbing me, didn’t notice… the macro/fundamentals are what they are, they’re kind of independent of price (although you’d expect price to reflect them in the long run). I have no issues with being wrong and still show up even if I am, don’t need to hide. It’s about owning your views

            Liked by 1 person

  9. torehund says:

    …looking at monthlyspx the upturn is still very much a “screamer” 🙂

    Like

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