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May 4, 2019
A volatile week with a quantified pullback. The SPX rose to a new recovery high on Monday at 2950 followed by a gap down opening on Tuesday and sell off to 2924. Price quickly rallied off that low and made a new all-time high on Wednesday at 2954. Sellers hit the market after the FOMC announcement with the markets closing on the low. Selling continue on Thursday and reached 2901. Friday saw a gap up on the NFP report with price holding into the close at 2945.
For the week, the SPX/NDX/NAS all gained 0.2%, and the DOW lost 0.2%. The standout this week was the Russell 2000 which was up 1.4%.
Most economic reports were negative, including: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Chicago PMI, ADP Employment Change, construction spending, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and the ISM Services Index. Positive reports were personal spending, consumer confidence, and the Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
LONG TERM: Uptrend
In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009. The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016. Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.
MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend
We maintain our SPX wave count with the Minor 1 top at 2817 and Minor 2 bottom at 2722 with Minor 3 underway. As expected, Minor 3 is subdividing with Minute i at 2852 and Minute ii at 2785 with Minute iii underway. New all-time highs were hit per our expectation.
We are counting the high at 2852 as Minute i and the low at 2785 as Minute ii. The rally off the Minute ii low is subdividing into Micro waves with Micro 1 high at 2830, Micro 2 low at 2788, Micro 3 high at 2954 with Micro 4 tentatively ending at 2901. Micro 5/Minute iii will lead to new highs in the coming days/weeks.
Short term support is at 2900 and the 2929 and 2884 pivots with resistance at the 2957 and 2995 pivots. The SPX ended the week overbought on the 60-minute chart and above neutral on the daily chart.
Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) were up 1.2%.
European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) were up 1.2%.
The DJ World index gained 0.3%, and the NYSE gained 0.4%.
Bonds are in a downtrend and were down 0.5%
Crude oil remains in an uptrend but lost 2.4%
Gold is in a downtrend and lost 1.3%%
Bitcoin is in an uptrend and gained 17%.
The USD is in an uptrend but lost 0.5%.
Have a good week