Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Brought to you by the OEW Private Group

May 4, 2019

A volatile week with a quantified pullback.  The SPX rose to a new recovery high on Monday at 2950 followed by a gap down opening on Tuesday and sell off to 2924.  Price quickly rallied off that low and made a new all-time high on Wednesday at 2954.  Sellers hit the market after the FOMC announcement with the markets closing on the low.  Selling continue on Thursday and reached 2901.  Friday saw a gap up on the NFP report with price holding into the close at 2945.

For the week, the SPX/NDX/NAS all gained 0.2%, and the DOW lost 0.2%.  The standout this week was the Russell 2000 which was up 1.4%.

Most economic reports were negative, including:  S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Chicago PMI, ADP Employment Change, construction spending, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and the ISM Services Index.  Positive reports were personal spending, consumer confidence, and the Non-Farm Payrolls Report.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

SPXwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

SPXdaily

We maintain our SPX wave count with the Minor 1 top at 2817 and Minor 2 bottom at 2722 with Minor 3 underway.  As expected, Minor 3 is subdividing with Minute i at 2852 and Minute ii at 2785 with Minute iii underway.  New all-time highs were hit per our expectation.

SHORT TERM

SPXhourly

We are counting the high at 2852 as Minute i and the low at 2785 as Minute ii.  The rally off the Minute ii low is subdividing into Micro waves with Micro 1 high at 2830, Micro 2 low at 2788, Micro 3 high at 2954 with Micro 4 tentatively ending at 2901.  Micro 5/Minute iii will lead to new highs in the coming days/weeks.

Short term support is at 2900 and the 2929 and 2884 pivots with resistance at the 2957 and 2995 pivots.  The SPX ended the week overbought on the 60-minute chart and above neutral on the daily chart.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) were up 1.2%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) were up 1.2%.

The DJ World index gained 0.3%, and the NYSE gained 0.4%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and were down 0.5%

Crude oil remains in an uptrend but lost 2.4%

Gold is in a downtrend and lost 1.3%%

Bitcoin is in an uptrend and gained 17%.

The USD is in an uptrend but lost 0.5%.

 

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Have a good week

 

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813 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. nyjsec314 says:

    Is the weekend update biweekly now or am I just impatient… tough week not having Tony with ya 😦

    Liked by 1 person

  2. torehund says:

    There is a collective psychosis developing in Europe, “climate emergency”, declared firstly in the UK, then Ireland. Wondering what is behind this hysteria from the Gov side, except for increasing taxation.
    Its certainly a trend worth recognizing at this stage. Power grab in front of a financial crisis ? A wrong-footing manouver ?
    Get your climat squeeze T-shirt, before it is too late 🙂 Happy weekend all, and especially Christine and the OEW team for running the blog.

    Liked by 6 people

    • purplember says:

      Tore, it’s kinda the same here in USA. it’s 100% about gov’t power and control. i live in the midwest and our winters are longer and colder than past 20 years. it’s kinda hard to believe global warming when i don’t see it in my real life. oh my bad. it use to be global warming until there wasn’t warming so they changed name to climate change.

      Liked by 3 people

  3. SPYtrader says:

    My good friend Colin Twiggs sent this to me. He said he doesn’t know fiona.

    http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/2019-05-10-markets-economy-gold.php

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Good afternoon all. I just hate days like yesterday and today. As a trader that has been “brainwashed” to trade of fib retracements there were none, on both days….that is, once the ramp started literally out of nowhere…secondary to a published statement.

    Today, I posted that it looked like central bank intervention to have a controlled, orderly decline. Mnuchin’s statement, IMHO, was a ploy to rally the markets into the close. Mnuchin statement…optimistic on the talks, yet, both sides ended the meeting with nothing accomplished. Trump gave the Treasury the go ahead to write up the paperwork for the next tranche of tariffs against China and China is threatening retaliation…and equities rally!!!!!

    Bottom line, no deal, nothing accomplished at this meeting, if anything, talks have deteriorated with China making the next move to perhaps retaliate…all this, as the futures ramped over 50 points today,

    The large traders/FOMC literally hammered /ZB, ZN and /VX…they wanted to make sure they told “all” who is in charge!!!!! The only savings grace for the bears is that the rally stopped dead in it’s tracks by the daily 50% measured move short at /ES 2893.63. Perhaps in line with fxa’s analysis.

    Not sure of the wave count at this point. Thinking either wave 1 of unknown degree (major, minor or minute) completed last week and this is part of wave 2. abc123 had an analysis on the DOW, that seems to be working for SPX as well. If he sees this post, perhaps he can published updated charts for both index’s.

    Bottom is../ES 2909.58. Bullish above and bearish below.

    Like

  5. gtoptions says:

    Monthly TFZ remains solid with ‘daily closes’ above.
    SPX ~ YR1 Back Test ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/wB7vSuZL/

    Like

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