Weekend Report

Good Morning.

Hope all is well. A few notes before the Weekend Report.

I’ve added a like feature and a rating system to the comments. Hopefully this helps reduce the bickering. Feel free to vote on things you appreciate and don’t appreciate. It’ll also show me what is “valued” content and what is not. As for previous post limit rule that keeps getting brought up. I do not have the time to count posts and scold people when they pass their post limit. I’m looking into some plugins to potentially help with that. The site will be evolving and changing and more features will be added as I have the time.  For those of you who are attempting to use my father as a weapon against me you will be immediately banned if it happens again. I will say this one more time. Having the comments open does nothing for me, them remaining open is only for you who comment here. Keep that in mind when picking fights with each other or me.

Be Kind and have a good week.

Thanks to the OEW Group for providing this weekend report!

Weekend Report – April 13, 2019

This week was largely a consolidation period with most of the indices making marginal new highs in choppy trade.  After a quick move down to 2881 on Monday morning, the SPX rallied to 2896 in the afternoon.  Tuesday saw a gap down and the weekly low made in the afternoon at 2873.  Price traded in range of 20 points on Wednesday and Thursday.  On Friday, the SPX gapped up and rose to 2911 on earnings and merger news.  The SPX closed the week at 2906.

For the week, the SPX/Dow gained 0.3% and the NAS/NDX was up 0.6%.

On the economic front, we saw an uptick in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, CPI, PPI and Core PPI.  There were negative reports for factory orders, JOLTS – job openings, and the University of Michigan Sentiment Index.

Next week’s report will highlight the Empire State Manufacturing report, industrial production, capacity utilization, retail sales, Fed’s Beige Book, and Leading Indicators.

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index continues to improve to -0.7 (April 5th data).

erciwkly

LONG TERM: Uptrend

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

We maintain our SPX wave count with the Minor 1 top at 2817 and Minor 2 bottom at 2722 with Minor 3 underway.  As expected, Minor 3 is subdividing with Minute i at 2852 and Minute ii at 2785 with Minute iii underway.  Minor 3 will extend higher to all time highs in the coming weeks.

spxdaily

SHORT TERM

We are counting the high at 2852 as Minute i and the low at 2785 as Minute ii.  The rally off the Minute ii low also appears to be subdividing into Micro waves as shown on the 60-minute SPX chart with Micro 3 still underway.

spxhourly

Short term support is at 2900 and the pivots of 2884 and 2858.  Resistance is at the 2929 and 2995 pivots.  Negative divergences exist on daily SPX charts. SPX hourly was reset with drop on Tuesday, when RSI moved below 30.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) were flat.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) were up 0.9%.

The DJ World index gained 0.4%, and the NYSE gained 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and were flat.

Crude oil remains in an uptrend and gained 0.8%.

Gold is in a downtrend and was flat.

Bitcoin is in an uptrend and gained 1.3%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.2%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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381 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. fxaprendiz says:

    It sure feels lonely, apparently being the only one going short here.
    Is anyone else in here going short at +2900 levels? Or all of you have been conditioned to buy the dip after a 3 month relentless upside?

    Not trying to pick a fight with the bulls or stir the waters. But I would like to know if any bear or swing trader decided to go along for the ride down. Maybe mcg or ahh are positioned short now as well but just quiet.

    I might post an EW chart later on the week, probably daily timeframe. There’s still too many variables though. I see at least 3 possible paths for SPX, 4 if you count the wave-5 bullish alternate count.

    In any case, for now I think the odds favor the downside for at least the next 2-4 weeks, even within the bullish alternate. Longer if one of the 3 bearish counts pan out.

    Liked by 7 people

    • riderbobo says:

      Short NDX via SQQQ. Bought TVIX early today.

      Liked by 1 person

    • fxa…good afternoon…I am expecting either micro wave 4 or minute wave 4 to start soon…would be more comfortable about shorting once 2900 breaks (see my morning post and my posts that I just posted). I don’t like taking heat and I am conditioned with all these stick saves….I can wait.

      Liked by 1 person

    • fionamargaret says:

      Think an ED, and if it does work out, the speed of the drop will be greater than the December drop……journey to the centre of the earth sequel….

      Liked by 4 people

    • mcgcapital says:

      Fxa, I’m not short right now, I’ve been dipping in and out in the mornings to get some points on the board then taking the rest of the day off to enjoy the weather. It’s like watching paint dry at the moment so got little interest in sitting in positions.

      I still believe all the things I’ve said around the limitations this market will have on sustaining upside, so do think patient shorts will get rewarded. But I’d have also said the same 200 SPX points ago so it could take many months to play out.

      Would rather take a back seat for now as I don’t have much to add to what’s already been said. Think most of the blog don’t like talking fundamentals anyway as it distracts them from going long on the technicals… and it’s hard to argue with them right now given what price has done. Just hope people realise how abnormal the environment is right now and don’t get caught out too badly when it turns. Watch that volatility positioning, it’s worse than Jan and Sept 2018 and we know what happened next

      Liked by 4 people

      • yogigiorgo says:

        Some of the “pieces” you ve written where extremely eyeopening and usefull to many less experienced participants of the market like me,please share your view even if less frequently!

        Liked by 2 people

    • yogigiorgo says:

      I m short too being waiting for the inevitable drop to happen,it always feels lonely when you re at the right side in this game…..
      I really like your charts and analysis and i m curious to see which long term count will be validated at the end.

      Liked by 1 person

    • travis01 says:

      I’m with ya! Stops in mind but my view of data and charts suggest a decent retracement (not a recession, apocalypse, or anything else) after being long much of the year. Let’s see.

      Liked by 1 person

    • xEVAx says:

      Nope, need to see a close below 2872 and even better 2858 before I’ll be squeezed….
      figure 1800 is a long way down, no hurry here…..

      Liked by 1 person

    • stan911 says:

      I’m with you fx

      Liked by 2 people

  2. i Think markets hang around these levels all day. A close above 2900 is bullish below opens the door for micro wave 4. Still think we need to get to 2915-2925 before we turn down though. Good luck all,we shall see

    Liked by 1 person

  3. fotis2 says:

    Crude / SPX very similar price play so far this year will it continue??

    https://invst.ly/ajpa6

    https://invst.ly/ajpa9

    Like

  4. fxaprendiz says:

    I just unhedged my SPX 2905 Short opened last Friday, by taking profits on my 2891 Long at 2901.
    Placing now a SL at 2925. That should be enough cushion in case the SPX decides to play hardball. But for now it looks like the SPX is done testing the upside.

    It wasn’t easy, last week. I opened 1 short and 2 longs before this last short stuck. At least I got away with small profits on each trade.

    If my assessment is right, the R:R ratio in this trade will be +10:1, with a going at under 2700.

    If I’m wrong and a marginal new high is coming next month, then the R:R should still be at least 2:1, with a going at 2850 first.

    Like

  5. courtesyoftc says:

    Spx setting on two extreme gap 2836 / 2893 , regardless of any wave count or earning , the advance would be limited before at least one be filled

    Liked by 2 people

  6. robpjr says:

    Christine, Thank you for your ongoing work with “the Elliott Wave lives on”. I appreciate what you are doing. Rob Pierce >

    Liked by 1 person

  7. phil1247 says:

    SPX

    bullish above 2903
    straight up

    Liked by 1 person

    • phil1247 says:

      should this most aggressive play fail
      bulls need 2887 spx to hold

      Liked by 1 person

    • sixpack says:

      Phil, maybe you could clarify for the rest of us, what do you mean by “straight up”?

      Like

    • sixpack says:

      Ok thanks. More than one time frame. I get that. But what do you actually mean when you say straight up? Is that just a figure of speech meaning it’s supposed to go up “quickly”, If so, how far will it go straight up quickly and for how long? Is it too another target on the charts that you expect it to go straight up to?Just trying to understand is all. Thanks

      Liked by 1 person

      • phil1247 says:

        ok
        lets just do the daily ..its less confusing

        2893 spx was the target of the last traditional long
        now thru there you are in an extension long
        so its straight up to 2922 spx until 2880 fails

        Liked by 1 person

  8. fotis2 says:

    Gold follow up looks like it will be testing support on triangle today/tmrw if it gives expecting 1214 measured target

    https://invst.ly/ajmqa

    Liked by 3 people

  9. Good morning all. As a follow up to my post over the weekend, there was no significant movement in /ES trading in the overnight session, hence, there continues to be two long setups. A small 15 minute long, that /ES already tested and the larger measured move long. /ES continues to trade in no mans land in between the 15 minute 50% long at 2908.13 and it’s corresponding profit target at 2916.41. No real help from /VX, ZN and ZB as they all have been trying to stabilize around current levels.

    Since /ES is trading around today’s gap, probability favors filling today’s gap and continued rally to test the 15 minute profit target 2916.41…..why?…..the 15 minute 50% long was tested and defended last. If /ES trades >4ticks above 2916.41, probability suggests /ES trades to the profit target of the larger measured move long at 2920.24. Conversely, if /ES trades below the 61.8% 15 long setup at 2906.80, I would expect additional decline and /ES will test the larger 50% measured move long at 2903.13.

    I mention these levels because, if SPX is trading in micro wave 3 one of these profit targets could complete micro wave 3 and at a minimum, micro wave 4 should test break the larger measured move long setup….that would be confirmation that either SPX is trading in micro wave 4 or minute wave 4. One setup at a time. DH chart.

    Bottom line for this mornings trading is /ES 2906.80 bullish above and “bearish” below.

    Liked by 3 people

    • TA.Stockman H says:

      Time to move to higher highs.
      Market just tested support (38.2%; low anchor 2877.25 to high 2914.75).
      I got in earlier at 2903.50 thinking that the other fib would hold (38.2%; low anchor 2885 to high 2914.75).

      Like

      • TA.Stockman H says:

        When I say “higher highs”, I mean for this measured move.
        Since the wider fib range was tested, I’ll check what the extensions are to calculate potential exits as we move higher. If we move lower, break the 61.8% with a large candle, I’m out as I think the move is invalidated.

        Like

        • TA.Stockman H says:

          ASA, for this 2877.25-2914.75 range, would the extension targets be (once 2914.75 is taken out):
          23.6%: 2920.75
          28.2%: 2924.50
          61.8%: 2930.50

          (Or is extension of extensions not determined via Fibs that way?)

          Like

          • Sorry TA…..was day trading all morning. If you look at my mornings post, I said “for this mornings trading”…2900 was the 61.8% measured move long. /ES traded to that level and was defended…meaning /ES rallied off that low. Chart is still bullish until 2900 gets taken out. When/if 2900 is breached, normally there will be a 50% short that confirms the break and leads to lower targets. Way too soon to know were fibs will line up. Yes, /ES could continue straight down, unusual…but ballpark, levels to watch on the break could be /ES 2891.50 and 2890.38. Hope this helps.

            Like

          • Sorry, TA should have added, took it for grant it… that extension/15 minute setup, is gone it broke this morning. SPX, /ES is testing the larger 50% and 61.8% measured move long. The only profit target on the screen is an old one at 2920.24. If /ES breaks a small 61.8% short additional profit targets will present themselves. Don’t want to get ahead of the game. One setup at a time….LOL.

            Like

  10. M Wags says:

    Earnings season ramps up this week, with 46 companies in the S&P reporting this week, and 134 in the following week.

    Like

    • quickrick38 says:

      Just wanted to follow up on that little discussion on Fed tightening…Yes, Yellen should have started tightening about a year and half earlier. (1st mistake). Then Powell, realizing the Fed was behind on tightening initiated accelerating tightening, trying to play catch-up. It doesn’t work that way. That is not the same as starting at the right time and then gradually tightening at a pace the market can digest. Powell’s hyper accelerated tightening was (mistake #2). The only thing the Fed has done right is when Powell paused the tightening to allow the markets to absorb it all. Eventually tightening will resume but hopefully at a reasonable pace the market can digest. Powell damn near pulled the liquidity rug out from under the markets which would have killed the economy. Let’s hope he learned something.

      Liked by 4 people

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