Weekend Report

Good Morning.

Hope all is well. A few notes before the Weekend Report.

I’ve added a like feature and a rating system to the comments. Hopefully this helps reduce the bickering. Feel free to vote on things you appreciate and don’t appreciate. It’ll also show me what is “valued” content and what is not. As for previous post limit rule that keeps getting brought up. I do not have the time to count posts and scold people when they pass their post limit. I’m looking into some plugins to potentially help with that. The site will be evolving and changing and more features will be added as I have the time.  For those of you who are attempting to use my father as a weapon against me you will be immediately banned if it happens again. I will say this one more time. Having the comments open does nothing for me, them remaining open is only for you who comment here. Keep that in mind when picking fights with each other or me.

Be Kind and have a good week.

Thanks to the OEW Group for providing this weekend report!

Weekend Report – April 13, 2019

This week was largely a consolidation period with most of the indices making marginal new highs in choppy trade.  After a quick move down to 2881 on Monday morning, the SPX rallied to 2896 in the afternoon.  Tuesday saw a gap down and the weekly low made in the afternoon at 2873.  Price traded in range of 20 points on Wednesday and Thursday.  On Friday, the SPX gapped up and rose to 2911 on earnings and merger news.  The SPX closed the week at 2906.

For the week, the SPX/Dow gained 0.3% and the NAS/NDX was up 0.6%.

On the economic front, we saw an uptick in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, CPI, PPI and Core PPI.  There were negative reports for factory orders, JOLTS – job openings, and the University of Michigan Sentiment Index.

Next week’s report will highlight the Empire State Manufacturing report, industrial production, capacity utilization, retail sales, Fed’s Beige Book, and Leading Indicators.

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index continues to improve to -0.7 (April 5th data).

erciwkly

LONG TERM: Uptrend

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

We maintain our SPX wave count with the Minor 1 top at 2817 and Minor 2 bottom at 2722 with Minor 3 underway.  As expected, Minor 3 is subdividing with Minute i at 2852 and Minute ii at 2785 with Minute iii underway.  Minor 3 will extend higher to all time highs in the coming weeks.

spxdaily

SHORT TERM

We are counting the high at 2852 as Minute i and the low at 2785 as Minute ii.  The rally off the Minute ii low also appears to be subdividing into Micro waves as shown on the 60-minute SPX chart with Micro 3 still underway.

spxhourly

Short term support is at 2900 and the pivots of 2884 and 2858.  Resistance is at the 2929 and 2995 pivots.  Negative divergences exist on daily SPX charts. SPX hourly was reset with drop on Tuesday, when RSI moved below 30.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) were flat.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) were up 0.9%.

The DJ World index gained 0.4%, and the NYSE gained 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and were flat.

Crude oil remains in an uptrend and gained 0.8%.

Gold is in a downtrend and was flat.

Bitcoin is in an uptrend and gained 1.3%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.2%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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389 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. xEVAx says:

    Interesting perspective and charts on the long term DOW Jonestown….

    “It took over 70 years for the $DJIA to hit 1000, it then took 34 years to hit the 14,000 level in 2007. Then came the great financial crisis and $DJIA dropped back into the 6K range. But that’s not the stunning fact. The stunner is what happened next. In 2013 the $DJIA broke above the 2007 highs. In just 5 years from 2013 to 2018 the $DJIA rallied from 14,000 to 27,000 last year.

    You do realize what this implies? 48% of the $DJIA’s entire point gains since 1900 have come in just the last 5 years (not counting 2019 yet, since we haven’t made new highs yet on $DJIA).

    That’s kinda mind blowing. Especially considering since there’s been barely any growth in the economy or corporate income for that matter.”
    https://northmantrader.com/2019/04/16/perspective-2/

    Liked by 2 people

  2. gary61b says:

    ES largest pullback so far, blast off to T1 or a return to setup zone for possible long. https://gyazo.com/3b540a52f2390aa478608ca45550172c

    Liked by 1 person

  3. maxcherry12 says:

    spx is hanging tough, day before good friday the spx is up 67% of the time since 1950, most of the time the day before a 3 day weekend it’s nearer 50%

    Like

    • James McKee says:

      More evidence that Jesus loves us sinners 😃

      Liked by 1 person

      • maxcherry12 says:

        funny you should say that, in checking my data i wanted to find out when closing on good friday started and came across this:
        “Some say traders in the 19th and early 20th centuries became skittish about the date, according to kapitall.com. One of the common myths about why the market’s closed on Good Friday is that the Panic of 1907 was triggered by a huge sell-off on Good Friday, which prompted NYSE officials to close the markets on that date ever since. “

        Like

        • James McKee says:

          Cool information. Present day, maybe we’re being rewarded for closing tomorrow. Hope the reward continues at least for a while.
          That’s my last comment before I really get in trouble. I’ll disconnect deity references from market performance.

          Like

  4. CampFreddie says:

    😀 😀 ….. Just too funny.
    Lyft Investors Sue Over Slump, Claiming IPO Was Over-hyped.

    Liked by 4 people

  5. phil1247 says:

    Asa

    i told you this DH stuff doesnt work ! LOL

    have a nice easter
    see you next week

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Micro 4 could have just ended and micro 5 up to 2960. Then minute 4 down to 2870 then minute 5 up to 3040

    Like

    • TA.Stockman H says:

      We could be setting up for a double bottom at /es 2888.
      My 4-HR is bearish until /es 2904 is recaptured for the closing candle.
      Until 11a today or Monday, we may not know what the outcome is.

      Regardless, maybe there is a pause to the upside.
      Anyone really want to hold at this level over a long weekend given the gyrations?
      If I were trading intermediate, I would have sold at yesterday’s open/pullback and then wait for the larger pullback to fill the gap (/es 2840) before getting back in for an intermediate trade.
      I don’t think the energy is there to go to higher highs with the gap below and the recent market action. Likewise, until the 4HR is recaptured, we have warnings.

      Liked by 1 person

  7. The SPY continues to trade under the 10 day MA at 288.97
    Needs to get back above 289.00 and into the range if there is gonna be a “stick” save.

    SPY Pivot: 289.96
    Which was literally resistance for the opening “pop”

    Like

  8. maxcherry12 says:

    should hold above 2853 then make a new high (unless it turns into an ending diagonal )

    Liked by 2 people

  9. purplember says:

    the embedded Stoch on SPX daily is gone. more downside ??

    Like

  10. SLB came out with decent earnings this morning, but its had a pretty nice run up from $36 with a decent dividend. Decided to take profits on 1,000 shares at 48.65/48.80
    Sometimes you’ve gotta ring the register and pay the taxes.
    🙂

    Like

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