Weekend Report

Good Morning.

Hope all is well. A few notes before the Weekend Report.

I’ve added a like feature and a rating system to the comments. Hopefully this helps reduce the bickering. Feel free to vote on things you appreciate and don’t appreciate. It’ll also show me what is “valued” content and what is not. As for previous post limit rule that keeps getting brought up. I do not have the time to count posts and scold people when they pass their post limit. I’m looking into some plugins to potentially help with that. The site will be evolving and changing and more features will be added as I have the time.  For those of you who are attempting to use my father as a weapon against me you will be immediately banned if it happens again. I will say this one more time. Having the comments open does nothing for me, them remaining open is only for you who comment here. Keep that in mind when picking fights with each other or me.

Be Kind and have a good week.

Thanks to the OEW Group for providing this weekend report!

Weekend Report – April 13, 2019

This week was largely a consolidation period with most of the indices making marginal new highs in choppy trade.  After a quick move down to 2881 on Monday morning, the SPX rallied to 2896 in the afternoon.  Tuesday saw a gap down and the weekly low made in the afternoon at 2873.  Price traded in range of 20 points on Wednesday and Thursday.  On Friday, the SPX gapped up and rose to 2911 on earnings and merger news.  The SPX closed the week at 2906.

For the week, the SPX/Dow gained 0.3% and the NAS/NDX was up 0.6%.

On the economic front, we saw an uptick in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, CPI, PPI and Core PPI.  There were negative reports for factory orders, JOLTS – job openings, and the University of Michigan Sentiment Index.

Next week’s report will highlight the Empire State Manufacturing report, industrial production, capacity utilization, retail sales, Fed’s Beige Book, and Leading Indicators.

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index continues to improve to -0.7 (April 5th data).

erciwkly

LONG TERM: Uptrend

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

We maintain our SPX wave count with the Minor 1 top at 2817 and Minor 2 bottom at 2722 with Minor 3 underway.  As expected, Minor 3 is subdividing with Minute i at 2852 and Minute ii at 2785 with Minute iii underway.  Minor 3 will extend higher to all time highs in the coming weeks.

spxdaily

SHORT TERM

We are counting the high at 2852 as Minute i and the low at 2785 as Minute ii.  The rally off the Minute ii low also appears to be subdividing into Micro waves as shown on the 60-minute SPX chart with Micro 3 still underway.

spxhourly

Short term support is at 2900 and the pivots of 2884 and 2858.  Resistance is at the 2929 and 2995 pivots.  Negative divergences exist on daily SPX charts. SPX hourly was reset with drop on Tuesday, when RSI moved below 30.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) were flat.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) were up 0.9%.

The DJ World index gained 0.4%, and the NYSE gained 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and were flat.

Crude oil remains in an uptrend and gained 0.8%.

Gold is in a downtrend and was flat.

Bitcoin is in an uptrend and gained 1.3%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.2%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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389 Responses to Weekend Report

  1. torehund says:

    https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas

    February bottom in 2016 until about where we are today could be a large X-wave, if so the completion could soon be over and done with…fits with a concerted bullphase in energy and commodities. Lets see and hope 🙂

    Liked by 2 people

    • fionamargaret says:

      Good stuff Tore.
      Just by symmetry on P&F, I would look at UNG about here…22.
      If we are to believe UGAZ, it suggests a buy down at 12…highly improbable I would think, but that is what the numbers say…..see what UNG does here first but if everything is collapsing, then you have another idea without phoning 1-800-bloodyhell….x

      Liked by 1 person

      • torehund says:

        SRS (short real estate) and TBT, showing teeth, not saying its prime time yet but they are showing some life. Banks went all in on real estate during low rate environment, d dangerous play if rates go wild, well who owns the fat finger 🙂
        Will opt for a retirement home in 2033 on the cheapo, lol.

        Like

  2. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Christine
    SPX is back testing the MTFZ breakout. If the WPP continues to hold support then look for MR at 2944, if the WPP breaks then look for WTFZ support at 2876. ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/oFwuYJpF/

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Another gap up open that was sold (NASDAQ has now had 5 in a row with 0 higher closes): buy the futures with the small left pocket, sell with the much larger right pocket into opening strength. That’s how distribution is done folks. The SPX went 2.83p above my ideal target for this wave-iii of 3 and as said before I am now looking for 2865-2885 for wave-iv of 3 before the next rally starts. BUT a break below SPX2865 will put any further upside in jeopardy. Note that the NDX is at ATHs but the RUT has barely retraced 62% of the prior decline. This is therefore still NOT a risk on rally, but rather a flight into saver big-cap-tech (AAPL won’t go away anytime soon… ). That said, I posted today an educational piece about the NYAD and TICK. Unfortunately I can’t post a link to it here, but I would love for people to read it as it has a wealth of information especially about the NYAD’s pros and cons that one IMHO should know about when using this indicator for making trading and investing decisions. Trade safe folks!

    Liked by 6 people

  4. aahmichael says:

    Today’s high came within 1 point of the weekly R1, and not only was today a bearish engulfing daily candle in SPX, but it bearishly engulfed the prior 3 days. If it follows through tomorrow to the downside tomorrow, then look out. The entire rally from 2790 could be erased very quickly. The only time this setup doesn’t mark a top is when the EW formation is an expanded flat.

    Liked by 9 people

  5. Good afternoon all. Seems like /ES ramps in the overnight session and sells off at the GLOBEX or NYSE open. Today’s trading activity, was a textbook example of this observation. /VX, ZB and /ZN either closed in a neutral position or closed on/near 50% levels…thus no help in adding any probability of the trading activity in /ES for the overnight session.

    /ES closed at 2901.54…..right on top of a Phil 38 special (very light pale gray line). Since /ES is close to testing it’s 50% measured move long at 2894.75….probability favors testing this long level…..the corresponding 61.8% long is 2887.97.

    Note the conflicting signals, I expect pre holiday volume to be light, historically bullish and there is a gap that could act like a magnet and keep trading activity around this level. Finally, I believe the bond market will close around 1:00PM, EST. adding to a perceived lower volume day. DH chart.

    Bottom line…. /ES 2887.97 bullish above, targets are this mornings high and the profit target (green dotted line) of this long setup and bearish below with targets yet to be determined but last weeks lows are levels to watch and one very bearish target…..the low anchor at 2866. I don’t expect /ES to trade to the profit target or the low anchor tomorrow , they are levels on the chart, so I mentioned them.

    Liked by 3 people

  6. Another day of pathetically low volume.
    Only 47.8 million shares in the SPY.

    NYSE Breadth pulled back a bit from the reading at 3:15 pm closing – 526 net.
    Was -750 at the worst level of the day.

    And Investor’s Intelligence Bullish Sentiment for the week ending April 16th climbs to 54.8 from 53.9 with Bears unchanged in the week at 19.2%

    Correction camp drops to 26.0%

    Gorgeous Spring Weather out here.
    Have a good afternoon!
    🙂

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Christine Caldaro says:

    Keep it market related. I don’t have time to babysit. It’s not personal. Problem children will be removed. Continue up and it will be shut down.

    Liked by 5 people

  8. today would be day 3 if it closes over 2900 and be bullish . if closes below would expect we head down to 2875. then see, but if we hold on 2930 still in the cards. All in the close. lots of head fakes. Yesterday the drop and then rally to close positive. today big gap up only to reverse immediately. either way looks like its running out of gas and needs a 40-50 point pull back but from todays highs or one more high. we shall see. good luck all,

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Neg div on daily SPX, ++ left hand MACD crossover coming.
    Hard hat area.

    Liked by 3 people

      • Yes, has crossed my mind.
        Thanks.

        Like

        • xEVAx says:

          Hey everyone, my opinion is it’s a rough room, we are clearly at an inflection point, charts, trades, all of it…. That is the part of the value of this blog, Im sure TC would still be sticking with the charts that are GRACIOUSLY provided and he’d be warning on the divergence and there would be great pivots, ect .)

          Fact is I never met Tony but those that have been here a long time should have a little more respect for his daughter and his spirit, he was a great man Im sure and an incredible chartist….. We all no doubt miss him =(

          I can’t imagine how hard it is for family, thanks Christine for keeping this blog running.

          Liked by 3 people

  10. maxcherry12 says:

    dont you post at danerics under “what ever happened to p3?

    Like

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