Weekend Updates

The Weekend Update

posted on March 09, 2019 by the OEW group in honor of Anthony Caldaro

Report

The SPX gapped up on Monday to start the week at 2815 and immediately hit the high for the week at 2817.  The market then began to sell off and hit 2768 by lunch before climbing higher into 2793.  Tuesday was a more stable day, trading down to 2783 in the morning session then a gradual climb up to 2796 by close.  Then on Wednesday the selloff continued as price moved down to 2770 and on Thursday selling saw Mondays low taken out, 2742 was hit early on, bounced back up to 2761 by lunch, back down to 2739 in the afternoon and a bounce into 2750 at close.  Friday gapped down and hit 2722 early in the session, bounced up to 2736, returned to test 2723 before finishing the week at 2743

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 2.2% while the NAS/NDX lost 2.0%.

On the economic front, we saw uptick for ISM Services, New Home Sales, and Jobless Claims.  On the downtick the Nonfarm had a big miss, 20k against the forecast of 181k

Next week’s report will be highlighted by durable goods, CPI/PPI and retail sales

The ECRI WLI was up this week from -4.2 to -3.7

1ECRI

 

LONG TERM: uptrend strong probability

We continue to track the foreign markets as we have for the past several months.  The Nifty (India) advanced this week while most other markets were in sell mode.  The Dax (German) and other European indices were lower along with the BVSP (Brazil), Nikkei (Japan) and Kospi (Korea)

SPXwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged. Super cycle SC2 low March 2009. Primary I high May 2015, and Primary II low February 2016. Major wave 1 high October 2018, Major wave 2 low December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

 

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Since what we believe is the Major 2 low, we count a possible 5 waves up complete.  Minute i at 2520, Minute ii at 2444, Minute iii at 2739, Minute iv at 2682 and Minute v at 2817.  We have been producing a Weekend Report for the OEW group and mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Minute v looked to be subdividing and that did indeed happen.  We label this subdivision as Micro 1 at 2762, Micro 2 at 2731, Micro 3 at 2813, Micro 4 at 2775 and Micro 5 at 2817.  The action possibly wrapped up Minor 1 on Monday and we believe Minor 2 has been underway since.  Several of criteria we were looking at to help confirm have now been met, like a break of Micro 4 at 2775 and largest pullback of the UT from 2347.  This data suggests that Minor 2 is underway and likely to confirm a DT in the coming weeks.

SPXdaily

 

SHORT TERM

SPXhourly

The action this week saw Minor 1 tentatively complete at the previously mentioned 2815 area of resistance which had capped both Int B and Minor B of Int A.

On the squiggle chart this week we have three waves down, 2817>2768>2796>2722 so far.  When this completes it will likely be Minute A, we expect to see a Minute B rally before another decline for Minute C to complete Minor 2.

Short term support is at SPX 2731 and the 2656 pivots with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots.  There is currently positive divergence on the 60 minute chart with the daily chart now oversold.

 

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were down on the week and some lost as much as 2.5%.

European markets were down as well and lost 1.5%.

The DJ World index lost 2%, and the NYSE lost 2.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend but gained 1.4%.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 0.5%.

Gold is in a downtrend but ended flat%.

Bitcoin is in a downtrend and lost 1.9%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.8%.

 

Best wishes to all

Thanks goes to the OEW Group for pulling this together.

We love you Dad.

 

This entry was posted in Updates. Bookmark the permalink.

736 Responses to Weekend Updates

  1. lml25 says:

    “Why WOULDN’T they push this above the IH&S?”
    –me
    More to come.

  2. phil1247 says:

    floyd … mm …. tore

    was selling bonds into that spike up this morning and getting good prices
    as soon as it turned those sobs ran away

    my broker said .
    .. all of a sudden there were no bids

    • phil our bullish targets hit at /ES 2831. /ES can now sell off the rest of the day and next week. See ya in a week.

      • phil1247 says:

        disagree asa

        above 33 es and you have

        extension long to the 4th power
        3 of 3 of 3 of 3
        straight up

        • quickrick38 says:

          Be that as it may. I dipped my tow in right here…beware the ides of March.

          • quickrick38 says:

            Make note…when you have these abc patterns the last one usually ends with a 5 wave ‘c’ wave…and we got that. Time will tell.

        • Hi phil..Back from working out. The main point of my post was, /ES 2831.99 was a profit target and it was hit. I posted 2 charts, one that Blue commented on regarding the trading activity in /ES the week going into and the week after futures rollover. I also posted a historical chart this morning on SPX on March rollover. There is a 72.2% probability that SPX will have a green weekly close bar next week (see link below).

          BTW, don’t roll your eyes but this morning when the DOW was down a bit, Boeing came out and said they will have a software fix to the problem completed within 10 days…that’s all Boeing, DOW ETF’s had to see.

          https://gyazo.com/0988f849b9c4b0d37ca9ca5739905109

  3. phil1247 says:

    NQ …

    already in 3 of 3 up

    see ya next week

  4. elmer510 says:

    Not much recession:

    “The numbers: Job openings reached 7.58 million in January, the Labor Department reported Friday in a sign companies are still eager to add new employees even with a tight labor market.”

  5. Lee x says:

    Guys keep up the great work here , I think Tony would be proud of the restraint and general civility you guys have shown out of respect to him and his family and I know its hard sometimes haha

    God bless ya’s
    Happy St Paddys day , get some 😉

  6. gary61b says:

    ES, sorry Phil did not want to jump on your Bias….https://gyazo.com/20ba3d24fe0dd269fde6ba0451017e9b above 22 forgettaboutit

  7. gary leibowitz says:

    Finally i see a target! ESM19 SP500 June e-mini futures just hit EXACTLY the top of target. 2826.50 This is MY line-in-the-sand. We hit that in the futures market today and fell back before the open. If it holds today I bet for that deep retrace immediately after the failure. The bottom of next drop is all the way down to 2313.

    I will once again be triggered by a failure to breach that number. The tight area around 2825 has been hit 5 times since October and it marked the turning point every single time,

    Here is the counter argument i also have. the candlestick patterns over last few days are not only strong but suggest a liftoff move blasting past any momentum indicator that can stall. So for me this is easy. we either push easily thru the 2826.50 target over next 2 trading days or we have our TOP.

    After 10 years of an historic bull run the street is downright giddy for prospects of much higher moves to come. I guess living in this time frame most never can step outside and view it objectively When we do look back we will obviously be on the other end of the move. Housing is the canary.

    Exciting day or days to come!

  8. Bear porn…..I know it’s not clear, but this chart dovetails into the chart I posted 2 days ago. Namely, the week of options/futures expiration, is usually bullish but the week after expiration is usually bearish with a 72.2% probability 26X bearish out of the last 36..

    https://gyazo.com/0988f849b9c4b0d37ca9ca5739905109

  9. So what’s in store for today. A gap and go or a pop and drop.

  10. phil1247 says:

    ES

    straight up
    chart same as yesterday
    target 2830

    burst thru there creates extension of extension of extension ie

    upside acceleration and 3 of 3 up

  11. Good morning all. Well /ES 2811.25 turned out to be major support yesterday and in the overnight session. The bear setup was invalidated when /ES traded up to 2822. There was an immediate 50% long at 2816.38 which was defended. The profit target of this long setup is /ES 2824.66. There is an old profit target at 2831.99….expecting a lot of reactionary trading around the open, if /ES rallies past 2824.66, I think /ES 2831.99 will be tested. There are no bearish setups as all time frames are bullish. If you are a bear and wanted to know at what level /ES has to trade to, to reverse trend back to bearish…..assuming /ES trades up to the profit target at 2824.66, /ES would have to trade below 2817.75. DH chart.

    • quickrick38 says:

      Yeh, and since ES already exceed the prior high, that’s confirmation that wave 5 is in progress…no more wave 4 for certain. Also it appears to be taking the abc approach which in my opinion reduces the probability of hitting the higher target up in the high 50’s to 2860. 2830’s target now even more likely.

    • The large traders have been hammering /VX all week. Regarding /VX, there are 2 SHORT profit targets that line up with the 2 LONG profit targets for /ES. Note the inverse relationship between the 2 indices. DH chart.

  12. Yield Curve has gone negative again on the short end:
    1 Month T-Bills = 2.48%
    2 Year T-Note = 2.46%
    5 Year T-Note = 2.43%

    10 year note still holding15 bps higher.

    https://countryboy324.files.wordpress.com/2019/03/yieldcurve.jpg?resize=450%2C450

  13. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  14. M Wags says:

    Last Fall, Barrick Gold bought Rangold Resources. In January, Newmont bought Goldcorp.

    Now, we have Barrick and Newmont forming a Nevada joint venture that, if it were a separate company, would be the world’s 3rd largest gold producer.

    Consolidation continues in the mining sector.

    • M Wags says:

      The S&P TSX Global Gold Index is down 51% since its 2011 peak.

      The S&P 500 has doubled in value in that time.

  15. torehund says:

    Possibly a lot of pessimism out there, Crude producers hedging at 58 Usd according to investing.com. Peak pessimism in the oil-sector ?

  16. lml25 says:

    Al Brooks review of Thursday’s SPX:(He’s getting bullish)
    “The Emini today rallied in a Small Pullback Bull Trend from the open to above last week’s high. It got to within a couple points of the October high. The momentum up is strong enough to break above the daily triple top this week.

    However, that is a resistance zone. Also, the daily chart has been in a trading range for 15 months. Therefore, there is an increased chance of a reversal down. Furthermore, after 4 strong bull days, the chart is in a buy climax. Finally, the bulls achieved their goal of reversing last week’s selloff.

    Consequently, the Emini will probably trade sideways to down tomorrow and wait for the final hour of the week. It will then decide whether to close above last week’s high and the October high. That would be a sign of strength and increase the chance that the rally will continue up to the all-time high.”

  17. Good afternoon all. An interesting, yet boring day on Wall Street. Looks like a consolidation day. This morning, /ES traded to 2811.25, breaking the the 61.8% long. However, the corresponding counter trend rally, broke a 61.8% short. When /ES breaks a corresponding long and short, it’s usually a sign, that a wedge is forming….and if you closely at the chart, it does appear that /ES is trading in a wedge formation. So, the next question is, in which direction will it break out of the wedge? We have expiration day tomorrow so we can see increased reactionary trading/volatility around the open but I will give a slight nod to the bears, why?

    Take a closer look at the chart…..after the 61.8% short broke, /ES declined a printed a lower low…further and this is the key, /ES had another counter trend rally but this time, it traded back up to the 61.8% SHORT and was DEFENDED to the tick. For that reason, I will give a slight edge to the bears. The profit target of this short setup is 2807.65. DH chart.

    Bottom line… /ES 2820.67, bearish below and bullish above.

  18. phil1247 says:

    KISS principle

    es 2808 extension of extension support held like a champ today

    refer to 6:42 am chart from today
    nothing has changed since then

    keep looking for 2830
    then 2839

  19. chrisk44342 says:

    Just some insight in terms of how i tend to view the market like today. First, we start off with the bullish fib extension. https://invst.ly/aa8xg Yes, it hit support and bounced. I then zoom in on the bounce to see how the bulls are faring. https://invst.ly/aa8ya. So far, no closes below .618 of the bounce- this is why i place more importance on the closing of the bar at support. This is not a golden ticket- it’s just how I like to do things. Now a close back above .50 or .38 of the bounce would suggest to me that the bounce (and the larger fib extension) targets are in play. Slightly different than Phil.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      ha ha. I didn’t say that properly. We closed below the bounce. I am neutral today- no trades as the market is still trending upwards, but short term, lower highs and lower lows, with a bearish closing bar on the bounce.

  20. Investor’s Intelligence Sentiment Survey:

    Bulls: 52.4%
    Bears: 21.4% (uptick from 20.6)

    Correction Camp: 26.2%

    Bull/Bear ratio: 2.45 (highest for the move)

    • stockop says:

      what is the historical average for the correction camp? (doesn’t need to be exact if you don’t have it, eye test works fine too)

      also, i remember you talking a few months ago about how EXAS was rallying into the healthcare conference. is this a common phenomenon/do you have any understanding of why this is? I get the basis for it (someone likes a stock and bids it up knowing they’re going to be promoted to investors), but are there times when this doesn’t happen or the reaction differs from expected? i’ve got a scenario that i am unsure of the viability of it. I think the odds are high, but want additional clarification before i expound.

      • Stockop,

        I cant give you an exact answer regarding the historical average, but will say that since 2007 the major lows are around the 20.0% level with highs coming in anywhere from 40.0% to 46.0%. FWIW, the high registered in late December was a touch over 40%. Two of the biggest spikes were (46.0%) were seen in late 2014 and late 2015.
        The “eye” test since 2009 for an average would be right around 30.0%

        As I have previously stated, the JPM Healthcare Conference in San Francisco the second week of January is the biggest healthcare conference of the year. If you aren’t a biotech, pharma, or diagnostic company that is presenting at JPM, you aren’t on anyone’s radar screen…. and most likely a micro-cap company.

        It is a conference where companies tend to give out more information to shareholders and the analyst community. They host analyst luncheons and invariably offer full year guidance and other material information about pipelines and ongoing studies… that just isn’t offered at the typical kind of investor presentations that are sponsored by someone like Cowen or Barclays in the past week.

        Besides JPM, the other big industry conference would be ASCO in early June, in which immunotherapy and oncology companies offer clinical data.

        As people can probably tell, I’m not really interested in investing or trading based off of “counting waves”. I’m more interested in coming across “catalysts” and material events that haven’t been factored into share prices yet . . . which comes down to a management team’s ability to execute. I want to know what the Street “consensus” is for sales, so that I can understand if there is an opportunity for management to come away with a sizeable “beat”. If you really want to generate significant wealth, the Druckemiller Plan means sizing all of this up and being able to sleep at night with a very large core position. You can only do that if you understand the management team and whether they have the ability to execute at a high level.

        Right now, in the case of EXAS…. a product like Cologuard has only penetrated 4% of the total addressable colon cancer screening market in the U.S., which is about 85 million people. They are currently trying to expand the FDA label and market place down to age 45 from 50, which would add another 18 million people to the total addressable market.

        Off to Happy Hour and 65 degree sunshine! 🙂

  21. see if we can squeeze to the highs of the day and gap up for free money Friday.

  22. torehund says:

    1 up and an a long upsloping b and a c down to a w 2 bottom as I speak, or another x-wave in Brent. Could react to the upside !

  23. gary61b says:

    ES, possible 4 is in with nano 1 of 5 is in at 2820.75… unless 2808.5 is broken then its not.

  24. Last Post. I do confirm this as Wave 2. It could not deep that much considering the nature of the next wave coming.

  25. travis01 says:

    ramp up of VX from -61.8 line was perfect

  26. The Oscillators are telling me that It wants a leg down.

  27. jobjas says:

    next target for SPX 2836 (38%) 2860 (61%)

    • quickrick38 says:

      Sounds good jobjas, and while both targets are certainly possible, I’m leaning towards the 1st target for the top. 123abc also has the target as 2835. We’ll see how the internal wave count looks when we get to the first target. Thanks.

      • riderbobo says:

        Pivots at 2835 and 2858.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Aren’t you concerned that if we did see 2835, it would be less likely to sell off hard as resistance would be broken? How far are you looking on your wave 2?

        • quickrick38 says:

          projecting…the 50% retrace would be 2577 but the long term trend line is pointing closer to the 61.8…trend line points to the 2530’s. Too early to say, really. But at this point, somewhere in that range would be my guess.

          • quickrick38 says:

            mcg, as for your other point regarding broken resistance. I pay more attention to that with the shorter term waves…bigger wave have their own rules, just my opinion but the bigger waves don’t seem to pay that much attention.

      • jobjas says:

        yes ,internal wave count more important than Fib projections ; more likely 2860.

    • riderbobo says:

      I believe this is cash and not ES, correct.

      • quickrick38 says:

        correct.

        • jobjas says:

          As mentioned earlier ES being a continuous market ,those charting sub waves have a lot more reference points to label waves correctly – unlike SPX which just shows gaps when markets open

      • Jack Lad says:

        The “cash” index that I know is a creation of the IG brokerage for their CFD clients. That creation is an unregulated proprietary instrument that is most unhealthy in more ways than one. One is that it is more akin to the futures index. Mr Tony refused to entertain any futures index for OEW analysis and my experience has been that he had very good reasons for doing so.
        In addition, I have experienced collective posters that try to operate clandestinely for the purpose of pointing traders to the IG platform by such references as “cash”. One of their cheerleaders that I know has posted here recently. Be aware people, please be aware. Over 80% of CFD traders lose all of their deposits. IG needs more of you, all the time.

        • Jack Lad says:

          Now I wonder about my minority opinion, that it could be caused by a preponderance of fake contributors who have a different but common agenda (to promote IG).. Seen it all before, not easy to detect when the perps are pros at their game. Watch where my comments are, be aware, thanks.

        • mcgcapital says:

          I trade with IG, never had any problems with them or their indices. They simply make cash equivalent markets 24 hours a day. In practice that means that during cash hours, it follows the exchange… then outside of cash hours it follows the futures.

          It’s true 80% of their clients lose money, but that’s the same for all leveraged traders and has more to do with them not knowing how to trade than the instruments themselves. They’re regulated in the U.K. by the Financial Conduct Authority. There’s nothing underhand here

          • fxaprendiz says:

            It is very popular with beginners to trading to put the blame of their shortcomings on some sort of “financial cabal” or other conspiracy theory.
            After having studied the markets since 2004, first with forex then stock indices, moving between 4 different brokers in 3 continents (US, UK, AU) I can tell it’s more up to the individual investor than anything else.

            Yes, this is a throat-cutting business and mostly everyone it’s out to get you, but that’s the nature of trading not the result of a coordinated plan to get the small fish.

            Regarding trading instruments I started with fx, mostly EUR/USD and I loved trading it but staying overnight for the European session was killing me so I switched to US stock indices by way of CFDs.
            The first year in forex I truly believed there was “someone” out there watching my every move, I mean how could EUR/USD reverse and go my way only after hitting my SL to the tee first? LOL

            Anyway, the more you mature as an analyst/trader the more you understand the collective nature of the beast and understand this is a hard, cold competition of everyone against everyone, with millions on the line but that doesn’t mean there’s anything sinister, cabal-style behind it. The markets are just too big to be manipulated by more than a few points for a few minutes, by a particular entity.

      • jobjas says:

        the difference is a few points – trend direction more important

    • riderbobo says:

      It seems to me that a couple of weeks ago I was reading about a target of 2855 based on wave equalitly. Not sure which i = v?

  28. Harp Man says:

    The negative divergence is so obvious here, that it seems to be widely ignored?

    • alexhartley1 says:

      I think we just need to wait for OPEX to get out the way. I have the market topping (if not already) by the 16th cycle wise and then a very short sharp drop into the 20th FWIW (20-25th perhaps). The neg. div. may explain at least to a certain extent why it’s chopping. Killing time so to say.

    • Jack Lad says:

      It would seem that the concept of top of wave 1 is a minority opinion at this time. This puts me in with the minority again. A confused place to find yourself.

  29. quickrick38 says:

    I’m going to suggest that 2809ES and 2803.6cash are the likely end of the wave 4 of 5 and we are now heading up in the wave 5, starting off with a 1-2, 1-2 which is what is necessary to get up to or past 2830.

  30. riderbobo says:

    Take off just before or after the Europe close?

  31. M Wags says:

    All 11 sectors of the SPX rose in a session for the 8th time this year on Wednesday.

    A 9th such occurrence would mark the highest quarterly total since Q2 of 2016, when it happened 11 times.

  32. Wave 2 are normally very quick. Prepare guys for the 3 of 3 of 3 of 3….. Cheers. Will let you know.

  33. My preferred bullish count is we are in minute 5. Currently micro 3 up past 2857
    2682-2817 micro 1 135 points
    2817-2722 micro 2 95 points
    2722-wave3 more then 135 so over 2857
    Then micro 4 and 5

    Bearish count is were finishing 5 waves up for minute b and down in minute c to come over the next week to 2620 area. Would expect a 190 point decline. 2x A at 95 points.

    Will see good luck

  34. phil1247 says:

    CL

    big move continues
    after bollinger band pinch as described previously

    targets coming up

  35. phil1247 says:

    ES goes straight up above 2808

    interestingly its the old -23% profit target of the prior extension long
    which should act as support
    as well as the 618 support level of the extension of that extension long
    with target of 2830

    very cool

    bottom line …………… 2808 is the KEY level going forward

  36. Good morning all. No change since last nights post. Currently, /ES is trading in no mans land. /ES traded within a narrow range and didn’t print a new high but did test and defend a 50% long at 2714.88…and for that reason, I give a slight nod to the bulls. The bull/bear line in the sand, the 61.8% long, is unchanged at 2712.13. There was a large red candle that printed as DH was making this video, so we will have to watch this going into the open. There was rumor that Xi and Trump would not meet until late April, which would signal that the trade negotiations may have stalled.

    Serving some red meat to the bears, the bond futures broke a long. Could be sloppy trading but if prices continue to decline, rate rise, that could be potentially bearish. Also, while /ES was rallying yesterday, /VX found support almost the entire trading day and in the overnight session at $14.00. So, higher interest rates?, /VX support and stalled trade talks, could lead to /ES breaking a 61.8% long. We’ll see. DH chart.

    Bottom line…../ES 2712.13 bullish above and bearish below.

    • Didn’t want to post 2 charts in one post, for fear of moderation.

      The chart below is the trading activity in /VX. Ignore the artifacts on the chart…at least 2 probably all never traded. /VX found support at $14.00, although there was a quick dip to $13.95. The only hope for the bears is /VX having a counter trend rally and test a 50% short at $ 14.42. If /VX tests this short, /ES will break the 61.8% long.

      This is only a potential set up. The /ES 50% long at 2714.88 looks to be major support.

      Bottom line …/VX $13.95 ….bearish above for equities and bullish below for equities. Note the inverse relationship between the two indices. DH chart.

    • scottycj1 says:

      Asa
      Ever notice how Philomena waits for you to post and then she posts right after you to be on top ?

    • update…the red candle was in fact associated with the China/U.S. talks stalling. /ES did break the 61.8% long but not phils setup. When algorithms have a sharp rally or decline associated/secondary to a news announcement, the algorithm will “simply” ignore that activity and chalk it up as “noise.”
      So, I am discounting that break for now but if /ES trades back down to retest today’s low before printing a new higher high…the probability that the 61.8% long will not hold rises a bit more than normal. I am not bearish or bullish, just trading the tape I see, for now.

  37. mcgcapital says:

    The odds of the trade deal falling through do seem to be increasing.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-14/china-u-s-said-to-push-back-trump-xi-meeting-to-at-least-april

    I’m sure that’s bullish though, probably bullish enough to break 2820 as tariffs will hit growth and make the fed more ‘patient’. #bulllogic

  38. Jack Lad says:

    S&P500 OEW Minor wave 1 = EW Intermediate 1 has landed?…
    https://wavecount.blogspot.com/2019/03/s-500-index.html

  39. vivelaamo says:

    As long as spx is above 200 daily sma I am happy to buy dips. RUT however is lagging. When that gets above the 200 there will be a lot of quick money to be made on the long side IMO.

    All the best.

  40. fxaprendiz says:

    Stockop, remember that we both talked about how we considered TraderJoe’s Leading Diagonal down to be a wrong count? Well today he finally folded and scratched that count, and is favoring now a flat from Oct, which implies sidewise moves, and that incidentally has always been my preferred view for this massive wave 4.
    Not trying to gloat too much here, well maybe a little hehe. But mostly just commenting on how even the most meticulous wave counter can have it totally wrong when they allow extreme bias to get them. In real life trading, more often than not it’s better to have a middle of the road view, as outlier (extreme) counts don’t happen as often as people seem to think.

    • stockop says:

      fxa,

      i saw! I think he is only a day or so away from seeing the big picture. i am amazed at how biased some people have become. lost a lot of money in the past as a result of bias and 100% agree the middle of the road view is the way to go. never too hard one way or the other or you end up trying to short a parabolic 400 pt rally. speaking from recent experience here.. fundamentals are not nearly as bad as the December data massacre had me believing originally. retail sales coming in up on Monday and people are wondering if the rally was caused by OPEX. imo fundamentalists are going to bid this up without looking back. Monday was the confirmation for me that the economy is still “growing”. I still think this is a wave 5 (you’re wrong lol). I get bullish just thinking that new ATH won’t be enough to change some people’s counts.

      • mcgcapital says:

        I’m pretty confident the macro is still weak in aggregate. As we’ve said before, Europe and Asia are much weaker than the US. Fxa seems confident the US isn’t going into recession, I’m not as I think weakness spreads and fiscal stimulus effect tails off. On retail sales, they tend to track the market. December was weak because markets were down so consumers reign in spending. Market rebounds in January, they rebound. Wouldn’t take the last number as a sign of a positive trend.

        All I’ll say on the market is wait for next week.. if it’s trading north of 2820 after opex then there’s maybe merit to the bull case (although obviously I don’t really get the move). But given we’re trading at 2813 right now, it’s a pretty expensive 10 points hoping it breaks up next week as if we fail here again, the downside looks substantial

  41. M Wags says:

    Told people to buy last year’s hot biotech IPO Guardant Health (GH) in the 30’s.

    Hit $94 today.

    It’s too bad people arent interested in making money off of companies with “game-changing” technology.

    🙂

  42. jobjas says:

    CL completing wave 1 – traditional EW analysis
    https://jobjas.wordpress.com/

  43. fionamargaret says:
  44. James McKee says:

    For what it’s worth…a TA charting option I have includes EW analysis of the most current “higher” degree wave. It’s looking for a 5 sub-wave impulse and a 3 sub-wave correction. The results match the short-term OEW group chart above for waves “i” through “v”. It presently has the downward “a” as complete at the 8 March low of SPX 2722–a 95 point drop. The “b” wave is underway and has presently made a 99 point excursion to SPX 2821.

    I’m not proficient in EW analysis, but that seems like a rather lengthy “b” wave, and it’s eerily similar to “a” in terms of points traversed. We’ll see if it was the right decision holding long overnight. Seems like “c” is due soon.

  45. No idea what the count is, but now that most are bullish, a good time to tank it tomorrow.
    Best of luck all

  46. 123 abc says:

    Given the lagging DOW and RUT indices, thinking perhaps an irregular b-wave for the SPX and NDX indices. The maximum allowable extent of an irregular b-wave is 1.618 times the length of an a-wave, i.e. at 2875.

    • gtoptions says:

      Thinking the same 123.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Not making excuses for the bears but today and Monday it basically ramped all day with no pullbacks until the last hour today. It’s clear that on options expiry there’s a lot of buy volume and that’s far outstripping supply, probably because people just think I’ll wait until it’s done to sell. Until the opex move is out of the way, it’s hard to tell if there’s genuine commitment from traders at these levels. We’ll find that out next week

      • gtoptions says:

        Also don’t forget the Dividend Collectors. SPY goes ex-div Friday.

      • M Wags says:

        This is all because of OPEX?
        Really???

        • mcgcapital says:

          I’m just speculating.. find it interesting that the move seems mainly limited to SPX and Nasdaq, where I assume there is the most option volume by some distance. Dow, Rut, transports, FTSE and Dax all aren’t participating, or at least nowhere near to the same extent. And that seems a little odd to me given the size of the SPX move.

          I don’t fully understand the mechanics of the opex move, but if you look at a chart, pretty much every month there’s one day between Monday and Thursday on opex week that basically just straight line ramps all day with no pullbacks at all. It’s a different kind of rally to most of the other up days we get ordinarily because generally the volatility is non-existent, whereas on regular up days there are still often pullbacks.

          What’s interesting is that this week we’ve had two days which were ‘opex move’ days, Monday and Wednesday. I’d imagine that the amount of hedging that has to be done this month (which is what I assume causes the ‘opex day’ most months) is much larger than usual on the basis that at the time of the last quarterly opex in December price was near 2400. Larger the price gain, the more valuable the call. Don’t remember any other times SPX has been up 400 points between expiries. And given that price is just the number that supply and demand meet, if opex is creating a lot of demand, dwarfing supply that would explain the rapid rally this week. Plus once that bid is removed post expiry, it would remain to be seen whether there are enough buyers of SPX at 2810 to meet the number of sellers.. if there aren’t, price is going to go back down. It’s just a theory.

          Anyway, I know I’m coming across as a perma bear here, but the fact remains we’re yet to break 2820 so downside risk is still in play. Very interested to see what happens next week. The rest of the indices still look more likely to go down than up to me over coming weeks.

          • M Wags says:

            Options traders and Market Makers utilize a strategy known as being delta neutral.

            It’s not like anyone is outright naked call options and having to cover, forcing the market higher.

            • M Wags says:

              If you truly wish to know more about these moves in the market, it might help to read up on JPM Quant Mark Kolanovich.

              https://moneyandmarkets.com/kolanovic-invest-money-here/

              He does a good job of sizing up all the various “players” and their equity exposure.

            • mcgcapital says:

              Can you explain the persistent trend for a strong low volatility up day most months on opex week? It’s something I’ve observed before, so there must be a bid created somehow. In fact, the only months where it doesn’t seem to happen are when the market is tanking hard like in December (which i was attributing to either calls being out of the money, or down volume so large that it dwarfs the options exercise buy volume).

              As I said, I don’t really know how this works, I’m just observing what tends to happen every month

    • gary leibowitz says:

      2875? Better happen real soon. OIL broke out today. Small caps trailing badly. External events coming to a head, trade war and Russian report. 2600 area seems logical. a rebound to new highs after the external events play out also seems logical. The wild card is how well housing holds up. No longer able to write off loan deductions should have an impact. Without housing strength we fall into a recession.

      Love the thousands of ways to interpret the wave structure.

  47. nsteve24 says:

    this is now a great DH method blog, where does one go for OEW and Elliott wave counts

    • Steve…think of trading the “DH algorithm” as a way to fine tune/confirm important technical top, bottoms, entries into taking a long position or exiting a long position, perhaps even confirming EW labels.

      We are all trying to collectively put our “unique trading skills” together, to increase the probability of free or reduced risk trades. At least that is the spirit that I had intended with my posts.

    • jobjas says:

      none from OEW group seem to be commenting .

    • Christine Caldaro says:

      Blog posts are still strictly OEW. Discussions and various analisis with in the comments are not being dictated on which theory is being followed.

    • Please let’s be grateful the blog is still here and that the community Tony fostered here over the past almost 15 years endures. Tony accepted many different styles and approaches here. We should all be as tolerant toward one another as Tony was of us. I for one miss Tony greatly, and I am very grateful to see the familiar “faces” of all members of this eclectic crew.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.