Weekend Updates

The Weekend Update

posted on March 09, 2019 by the OEW group in honor of Anthony Caldaro

Report

The SPX gapped up on Monday to start the week at 2815 and immediately hit the high for the week at 2817.  The market then began to sell off and hit 2768 by lunch before climbing higher into 2793.  Tuesday was a more stable day, trading down to 2783 in the morning session then a gradual climb up to 2796 by close.  Then on Wednesday the selloff continued as price moved down to 2770 and on Thursday selling saw Mondays low taken out, 2742 was hit early on, bounced back up to 2761 by lunch, back down to 2739 in the afternoon and a bounce into 2750 at close.  Friday gapped down and hit 2722 early in the session, bounced up to 2736, returned to test 2723 before finishing the week at 2743

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 2.2% while the NAS/NDX lost 2.0%.

On the economic front, we saw uptick for ISM Services, New Home Sales, and Jobless Claims.  On the downtick the Nonfarm had a big miss, 20k against the forecast of 181k

Next week’s report will be highlighted by durable goods, CPI/PPI and retail sales

The ECRI WLI was up this week from -4.2 to -3.7

1ECRI

 

LONG TERM: uptrend strong probability

We continue to track the foreign markets as we have for the past several months.  The Nifty (India) advanced this week while most other markets were in sell mode.  The Dax (German) and other European indices were lower along with the BVSP (Brazil), Nikkei (Japan) and Kospi (Korea)

SPXwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged. Super cycle SC2 low March 2009. Primary I high May 2015, and Primary II low February 2016. Major wave 1 high October 2018, Major wave 2 low December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

 

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Since what we believe is the Major 2 low, we count a possible 5 waves up complete.  Minute i at 2520, Minute ii at 2444, Minute iii at 2739, Minute iv at 2682 and Minute v at 2817.  We have been producing a Weekend Report for the OEW group and mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Minute v looked to be subdividing and that did indeed happen.  We label this subdivision as Micro 1 at 2762, Micro 2 at 2731, Micro 3 at 2813, Micro 4 at 2775 and Micro 5 at 2817.  The action possibly wrapped up Minor 1 on Monday and we believe Minor 2 has been underway since.  Several of criteria we were looking at to help confirm have now been met, like a break of Micro 4 at 2775 and largest pullback of the UT from 2347.  This data suggests that Minor 2 is underway and likely to confirm a DT in the coming weeks.

SPXdaily

 

SHORT TERM

SPXhourly

The action this week saw Minor 1 tentatively complete at the previously mentioned 2815 area of resistance which had capped both Int B and Minor B of Int A.

On the squiggle chart this week we have three waves down, 2817>2768>2796>2722 so far.  When this completes it will likely be Minute A, we expect to see a Minute B rally before another decline for Minute C to complete Minor 2.

Short term support is at SPX 2731 and the 2656 pivots with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots.  There is currently positive divergence on the 60 minute chart with the daily chart now oversold.

 

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were down on the week and some lost as much as 2.5%.

European markets were down as well and lost 1.5%.

The DJ World index lost 2%, and the NYSE lost 2.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend but gained 1.4%.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 0.5%.

Gold is in a downtrend but ended flat%.

Bitcoin is in a downtrend and lost 1.9%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.8%.

 

Best wishes to all

Thanks goes to the OEW Group for pulling this together.

We love you Dad.

 

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736 Responses to Weekend Updates

  1. One more thing. If wave1 of minor 3 of minute 1. Should rise 70 -100 points this week. As Phil says straight up. So hopefully we know which is correct in the next few days

  2. Major 1 was 1140 points. . So from 2343, we are heading to over 3500. Trend is up wether minor 2 is done or not. The more I look at the charts I’m leaning towards that count. Se we would be in wave 1 of 5 up of minute 1 of minor 3 up to 3488.for minor 3. I am currently short from Friday. If market exceeds 2835 pivot. This will be my preferred count moving forward.
    If it’s going to reverse needs to do it quickly.

    • fionamargaret says:

      3509 is the permutation number..but I really like Twiggs’s work (see next page), and he suggests a possibility of a correction to 2600, and if through there a retest of 2340 (kind of meshes with Bob’s (Amateur-Investor) idea of DT, then down….nice trading range…GL.

  3. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  4. Hi
    DOW and DJT didn’t make a new high in this uptrend like SP/W5000
    I preffer to trust more in DOW/DJT

    https://invst.ly/aasag
    https://invst.ly/aasbg
    https://invst.ly/aas9m

    Ciao

  5. jobjas says:

    BTC projection : keeping the big picture always in the frame !

  6. chrisk44342 says:

    Just wanted to comment on the posters regarding ‘daytrading’. That’s a fairly nebulous term so let’s not focus on that. My thought is that Tony was generous in sharing his views, and that i try to do the same, as do others. From my perspective, i am not trying to convince you of anything. Phil and Asa do a great job of posting their daily dh/algo/fib views and attempt to sync that with EW/OEW. Since they do that already, my hope is to get people to think about the why and how of what they are doing. Tony was fond of the term ‘trade what’s in front of you’. Taken another way, i say try not to over anticipate. All trading depends on it, but not to the degree that strong uptrend will produce a 60 pt pullback necessarily, for example. I do miss Tony and his kind spirit.

    • aahmichael says:

      When people on this blog complain about it being overrun by the scalpers/daytraders, they’re referring to the number of posts from the DH traders. When Tony reopened the blog on 7/23/2016, he stated that he only wanted to see a **total** of 30,40, or 50 quality posts per day in the comment section. He stated that he did not want to see 100s of posts every day. He also said that he didn’t want it to be used as a social media app, and he frequently stated that he didn’t want it to be a daytrader’s diary. Well, yesterday, Phil posted 31 times, and Asa posted 16 times. So, just between the 2 of them, they hit Tony’s daily limit for the entire comment section. Nuff said.

  7. Well then 2822-2832 area is the decider. Over 2832 up we go, under 2822. My opinion we head to 2600 area quickly in an ABC fashion. Possibly down to 2700 by Tuesday. Rally on fed Wednesday then reverse down to 2600 by Monday the 25th then off to new highs.

  8. quickrick38 says:

    I noticed a complaint about posters not posting charts…well, rather than complain about it…why don’t YOU post a chart!

    • phil1247 says:

      Rick
      dont know if you were following my commentary friday
      but this is how i was able to exit longs at 2834 es
      similar to your getting short near there

      as long as we reach the correct conclusion
      its all good
      no matter how we get there

      • phil1247 says:

        also note the bounce from 2823
        it was totally expected

        does anyone remember what 2823 es was ?

      • James McKee says:

        Thanks Phil. So you identified an immediate-term trend change, based on the downward reaction off of your baby bear .618 line at 2834. Short opportunity there = exit longs.

      • Thanks phil1247 ….. You are very generous & your explaining things to someone else helps others understand better….Really appreciate your time and effort each day!

        • phil1247 says:

          welcome james and obsessed…..

          think of this as a tug of war
          a decline starts 25 cents at a time
          if it can gain a foothold on 1 minute then 15 min then 1 hour
          you may have a downtrend beginning

          on the other side you have longs
          the extensions show how aggressive buyers are

          so now the question is…..
          who will gain strength going forward?
          on the daily chart
          the bulls are in total control

  9. What a nice tradition. A lot of people loved Tony.

  10. Phil…I’ll make it easy for you…..you know I just had to show you want last chart before I leave…I believe /ES 2823.21 holds the keys to the near term outlook for equities. Staying above 2823.21, /ES will rally to new higher highs. Below 2823.21 and at a minimium, I believe /ES has the potential to retrace 50% of the rally that started last Friday.

    That analysis is based upon, last Friday’s low was minute wave 4. From that low, to today’s high, was either micro wave 1 completing or minute wave 1 completed. Tony’s pivots, a 5 wave pattern completed this afternoon and the week after expiration has a 72% probability of being a down week. DH chart.

    • I’ believe we see at least a 40-50 point pull back, maybe a lot more. 1st and or 5th waves tend to be 100-135 points. This was like 108 ish

      • Trying Correct…a 40-50 point pullback is my micro 1 up complete today a the pullback micro wave 2…. both of minute wave 5. The issue is a 40 point pullback opens the door to much lower targets targets…at least from one particular algorithms perspective. But first things first, let’s see a 40 point pullback first and we can go from there.

    • SPX2722 is simple now the line in the sand to allow for more downside.

    • I am posting the chart below on /VX, to add additional data to support potential weakness in equities on Monday and possibly for the week.

      /VX printed it’s low this morning at $13.25, as /ES printed it’s high. When /VX printed it’s high this afternoon at $13.65, /ES printed it’s low. Now, if you draw up the low and high anchors for /VX, /VX declined late afternoon and found support, as in /VX defended it’s 61.8% long at $13.40….that is potentially significant as the profit target for this /VX setup is $13.74. That suggests /ES will print a lower low, which opens the door to lower /ES targets. This analysis adds additional data, to support the analysis of /ES trading in a wave 2 of unknown degree as long as /VX stays above $13.40. DH chart.

      Bottom line for /VX…as long as /VX stays above $13.40 it is bearish for equities and below $13.40 would be bullish for equities.

  11. NDX/NAS/SPX making new uptrend highs. RUT/DJIA still severely lagging; certainly not a risk on rally. Now, who will pull who down or up? This tells us each index is in its own wave count and as usual a blanket approach is inappropriate. IMHO NDX/NAS are finishing a final 5th up, the SPX is completing an irregular b-wave (last week’s low SPX2722 was wave-a) and the RUT/DJIA are in more normal b-wave retraces. A move above SPX2855 proofs my thesis wrong and unlocks SPX2865-2885. The problem for the Bulls is that the higher the markets go without a more normal retrace over the short term (days weeks) the more bearish it will get longer term (months-years). Trade safe!!

  12. fionamargaret says:

    …meanwhile TLT still suggests 143, and TMF (3xTLT) suggests 28…we need to get through 20 on TMF to have really clear skies, but this permutation is fascinating…..DYODD.

  13. elmer510 says:

    Main focus should now be upon Minor II of Intermediate I. Is it already finished, or still underway?
    Minor II is our main challenge now using OEW.
    But people write about all other things except M II. 🙂

    • kjb0 says:

      I agree Elmer…but the place has been invaded by day traders…..of which 90% lose money in the long run and are chained to a computer all day. Some day they will learn, but you can’t tell them anything. We have always had sporadic day traders, but not of this magnitude. If it was not for the weekend updates by Tony’s group, there would be no reminiscence of his charitable work here at all.

      • elmer510 says:

        Well spoken !

      • mcgcapital says:

        If people aren’t going to talk about the day to day market moves, what else are they going to talk about? The longer term views don’t move very much.. for the most part, people are in two camps on long term analysis. Those with a bullish bias say it will always go up. None of them saw reasons for a big drop last summer, and none saw 2300s at 2900s last September. On the other side, the bears saw no chance of 2820+ in December at 2300s (me included). So if nobody is calling both sides well, what’s the point in long term projections? Tony’s calls so far have worked out.. but would still say there’s likely more twists ahead and 3 of 3 probably isn’t the right count.

        On the flip side, day traders take it one move at a time and therefore stay on the right side more often than not. The 80% losers stat is because there are many doing it on a casual basis whilst doing a full time job, they have no discipline or strategy, or money management. No wonder they lose overall. Professional day traders it’s a different story. Some in here have been calling SPX well, albeit they have a bullish bias and the market has kept trending up. But it’s been moving off the numbers they have.. so there’s value to reading it

      • Elmer/kibo…I agree 100%. What I am trying to do is take a swing long position when minor wave 2 is coming close to completion. I don’t believe last weeks pullback was minor wave 2. The pullback wasn’t significant enough and the duration wasn’t long enough. So I am trying to use different technical analysis tools to figure out where minor wave 1 could complete. So, if you read my posts going forward, trying and extrapolate to a EW count. If you are unsure of my analysis re…EW count, simply ask me and I will try and offer my views.

        Now, if minor wave 2 completed last week, I missed it, it’s that simple. I will also state, if last week was minor wave 2, I will severely underperform the market this year. Last year I was up very nicely and I am up this year day trading…but significantly underperforming the SPX.

        In term of day traders taking over the site, I don’t see many people posting their analysis on EW counts. As a matter of fact, re-read my posts where I try and incorporate trading a algorithm to EW.

      • lunker1 says:

        kjb,
        Here’s the update from March 9, 2009. Back then the blog was limited to 100 posts per day and it would max out daily. You’ll see there were lots of posts about daytrading and scalping ES. So the blog today is really no different than it was 10 years ago

        https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2009/03/09/monday-update-78/

    • lunker1 says:

      elmer,
      Here’s the update from March 9, 2009. Back then the blog was limited to 100 posts per day and it would max out daily. You’ll see there were lots of posts about daytrading and scalping ES. So the blog today is really no different than it was 10 years ago

      https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2009/03/09/monday-update-78/

  14. phil1247 says:

    asa

    here is the extension to the 4th power

    if 28 fails run for the hills !

    • schizo1688 says:

      Thanks Phil again !

    • quickrick38 says:

      Hi Phil…just sitting here waiting for that ‘run for the hills’ signal 🙂
      I think you know I’ve been pretty confident that the peak would end in the 2830’s – especially with the ‘abc’ patterns instead of 5 waves. And, with these ‘abc’ patterns, it is usually the last ‘c’ wave that is 5 waves – which is what I saw today. Also Since yesterday, I knew I would have to buy puts just BEFORE the peak because the option sellers know as well as anyone that the market is about to turn. Consequently, in the last few minutes before the peak, they will NOT lower the price no matter how high it goes. And, frequently as the market turns up for that last few points, they actually raise the price because they know it’s about to turn. So I bought the April SPY 265 puts at 3pts and 10 minutes before the peak -for $0.60 – the low of the day. I believed they raised the price at the peak to $0.62…as it rose another 3pts from the $0.60 price!!! Just a tip for anyone buying options. That however does NOT work for blow off tops! Of course today was anything but that.
      Also, if anyone is interested, the negative divergence was building over the last half hour before the peak – on the 1 minute chart. I’m sure they watch that as well and, consequently in just a few short minutes…maybe 15 minutes they can see that and know not to lower the price on puts even when the market is still going up (another 3 pts).
      Of course, all of this doesn’t mean the market can’t go higher but clearly I did put a small wager on it dropping from here. Good luck all…and even though it technically got below 2827, I wouldn’t really say that 2828 was busted…the Market is having a really tough time breaking through there…good criteria Phil. And, FINALLY, THAR SHE BLOWS…2828 BUSTED.

      • phil1247 says:

        rick
        i hope you understand how i use this method
        failure at es 28 means the bulls are weakening
        then you want to see if the short from high can hold
        atm its 2832 es 618 resistance
        then you want to see if a series down can get going
        this is all for very short term trading

        spx still very bullishin the daily time frame and ndx UBER bullish
        daily trend is up
        above 18sma and pushing boll band out
        i want no part of any shorts
        its just a question of where to get in and out of longs

        even if yesterdays low were taken out on SPX
        it would only turn the trend neutral
        i hope this helps explain what i meant when i said
        “head for the hills “

        • phil1247 says:

          i will show over the weekend
          why it is so bullish on the daily and weekly time frames

          • chrisk44342 says:

            Well said Phil. The problem is you can lay out the dominoes and explain the hows and whys of trading this way but it’s far more difficult to educate someone who is so locked into the sell the top/buy the bottom mentality. (Not attacking you Rick- that’s a generalized statement).

            • quickrick38 says:

              I get it guys…from my 12:28 post (time stamped 11:28), “I dipped my toe in.” If wrong, I’ll get out very quickly (risk management), if right I have a jump start on averaging in. LIke asa, i’m looking for the 2 down. What some here are calling wave 2 was entirely too short to be a wave 2. Just MHO. And, to be honest I was not expecting this last “5th wave”. I had to change my count. But that’s OK because just HAVING a count provides everything necessary to know when to get in and when to get out. I can be right less than 1 in 3 and still profit. Good luck to you.

  15. kingfrogcash says:

    A reply to a message, starting about 6 characters to the left of mid-page. Is unreadable on iPhone.
    Single file after midpoint. On a PC midpoint has a Up pointer.

  16. 1:30 moving hour approaching Tripple witching day. 2.5 hours left to trade should move one way or the other. Preferably down for me.

  17. gary61b says:

    ES, micro 1 minute 5 still climbing…micro 2 is next on the agenda in my count. Anyone have an opinion for the value in points of a micro wave retrace? Place your value below here.
    VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV

  18. I shorted 2828. Will cover if we close above 2815.or over 2836 any time
    Good luck all

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